Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $619.46 | Market Cap: $37.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $619.46Market Cap: $37.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14% | Key risksMLM key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on uncertain public infrastructure funding and [2] a high fixed cost structure that makes profitability vulnerable to declining shipment volumes despite strong pricing power. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14% |
| Key risksMLM key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on uncertain public infrastructure funding and [2] a high fixed cost structure that makes profitability vulnerable to declining shipment volumes despite strong pricing power. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MLM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 0.7% stock movement for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
**1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Optimistic Outlook.**
Martin Marietta Materials reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025. While some reports indicated an earnings per share (EPS) miss compared to consensus estimates, other sources highlighted strong performance in aggregates revenues, which increased by 17% year-over-year. The company also raised its full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and provided positive preliminary guidance for 2026, contributing to an overall optimistic outlook despite mixed quarterly figures.
**2. Multiple Analyst Price Target Revisions and Upgrades.**
During the period, several Wall Street analysts updated their ratings and price targets for Martin Marietta Materials, predominantly with upward revisions. For instance, Stifel raised its price target to $681 from $637 on November 11, 2025, maintaining a Buy rating. UBS also increased its target to $723 from $705, and Jefferies raised its target to $730 from $725 on December 15, 2025, both reiterating Buy ratings. These revisions signal analyst confidence in the company's future performance and financial health.
**3. Strategic Portfolio Optimization Through Asset Exchange and Acquisition.**
Martin Marietta announced a definitive agreement with Quikrete Holdings, Inc. for an asset exchange in early August 2025, which saw Martin Marietta receive aggregates operations and $450 million in cash. The regulatory approvals for this exchange were received by October 2, 2025. Additionally, the company completed the acquisition of Premier Magnesia, LLC in July 2025. These strategic moves were aimed at creating a higher-margin, aggregates-led business, which was viewed positively by investors.
**4. Declaration of Quarterly Cash Dividend.**
On November 13, 2025, Martin Marietta declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.83 per share, payable on December 31, 2025. Consistent dividend payouts can reinforce investor confidence by demonstrating the company's financial stability and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
**5. Favorable Industry Trends and Infrastructure Spending Outlook.**
As a leading supplier of construction aggregates and building materials, Martin Marietta benefits from a robust construction sector. Analyst commentary frequently cited the company's strong exposure to public infrastructure projects and an outlook for continued aggregate price and cost tailwinds in 2026 as reasons for maintaining positive stances on the stock. This sustained industry strength and demand contribute to investor optimism.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MLM Return | 3% | 56% | -23% | 49% | 4% | 23% | 135% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 31% | 5% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MLM Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 64% | 56% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MLM Max Drawdown | -48% | -2% | -33% | -5% | -3% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -4% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VMC, CRH, EXP, KNF. See MLM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MLM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,449 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to VMC, AWI, AMWD, CRH, MLM
In The Past
Martin Marietta Materials's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MLM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 03312020 | MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 22.8% | 79.1% | -15.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 03312020 | MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 22.8% | 79.1% | -15.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Martin Marietta Materials
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 220.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 37.3 |
| Rev LTM | 7,296 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,585 |
| FCF LTM | 1,007 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 570 |
| CFO LTM | 1,710 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,045 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 37.3 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 15.8 |
| P/E | 29.4 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| 8/4/2025 | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | -2.2% | -1.5% | -11.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.6% | -0.2% | 2.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.1% | -2.4% | -6.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -2.6% | -0.5% | -6.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 15.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 5.8% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -1.6% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 8.9% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -8.7% | -29.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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