Tearsheet

Medifast (MED)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.02 | Market Cap: $121.1 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

Medifast (MED)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.02
Market Cap: $121.1 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -134%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.3%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.4, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 606x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -36%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -134%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.4, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.3%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 606x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -36%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MED Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why Medifast (MED) stock moved by -21.5% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Medifast reported a diluted loss per share of $0.21 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, which significantly missed the consensus estimate of a $0.01 loss per share.

2. Continued Decline in Active Coaches and Revenue: The company experienced a substantial year-over-year revenue decrease of 36.2% in Q3 2025, reporting $89.4 million. This was primarily attributed to a 35% decline in the number of active earning OPTAVIA coaches, which fell to 19,500. This continued a trend seen in previous quarters, with Q2 2025 revenue also decreasing due to a decline in active coaches.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MED Return86%9%-42%-38%-74%-38%-88%
Peers Return-10%17%-4%33%12%1%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MED Win Rate50%67%33%33%25%20% 
Peers Win Rate23%37%23%35%33%37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MED Max Drawdown-53%-4%-49%-43%-75%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-5%-24%-5%-10%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMEDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-81.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven434.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven124.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-70.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven244.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven458 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-72.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven257.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven238 days1480 days

Compare to HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH


In The Past

Medifast's stock fell -81.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/28/2021. A -81.3% loss requires a 434.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Medifast (MED)

Better Bets than Medifast (MED)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MED. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
MED_9302021_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302021MEDMedifastDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.9%-41.5%-41.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
MED_9302021_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302021MEDMedifastDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.9%-41.5%-41.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Medifast

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MEDHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMedifast H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
Mkt Price11.0142.7324.79-26.78222.4826.78
Mkt Cap0.15.60.8--95.43.2
Rev LTM4303,7711,626-74112,6351,626
Op Inc LTM-6849-3-103695103
FCF LTM1576-36--1,992288
FCF 3Y Avg706598--1,550364
CFO LTM76532--2,528330
CFO 3Y Avg7972956--1,946404

Growth & Margins

MEDHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMedifast H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
Rev Chg LTM-36.3%4.2%-11.1%--10.7%24.5%-10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-35.5%3.0%-2.1%--13.2%27.8%-2.1%
Rev Chg Q-36.2%5.0%-18.3%--12.4%27.3%-12.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-10.6%0.3%-4.6%--3.3%6.2%-3.3%
Op Mgn LTM-1.3%22.5%-0.2%-13.9%5.5%5.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.2%21.9%2.4%-8.9%-2.1%4.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.4%0.5%0.7%-1.2%0.9%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM1.7%17.3%0.1%--20.0%9.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.7%20.2%3.0%--18.5%13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM0.2%15.3%-2.2%--15.8%7.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.5%18.3%0.3%--14.7%10.6%

Valuation

MEDHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMedifast H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
Mkt Cap0.15.60.8--95.43.2
P/S0.31.80.5--9.21.1
P/EBIT-26.47.621.3--167.914.4
P/E605.810.8-11.4--135.273.0
P/CFO20.910.2359.7--46.133.5
Total Yield0.3%11.5%-4.5%--0.7%0.5%
Dividend Yield0.1%2.3%4.3%--0.0%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.7%9.3%-0.1%--2.5%5.9%
D/E0.10.31.0--0.00.2
Net D/E-1.10.31.0---0.00.1

Returns

MEDHRBMATWMEDGWWDASHMedian
NameMedifast H&R BlockMatthews.MEDI WW Inter.DoorDash  
1M Rtn-7.3%-13.6%6.9%--21.4%-8.1%-8.1%
3M Rtn-21.1%-15.5%3.4%--15.6%-10.6%-15.5%
6M Rtn-18.7%-26.0%12.6%--1.0%-8.8%
12M Rtn-42.7%-24.4%-13.5%--26.3%-19.0%
3Y Rtn-90.2%9.9%-13.8%--303.1%-1.9%
1M Excs Rtn-7.3%-13.5%6.9%--21.3%-8.1%-8.1%
3M Excs Rtn-25.9%-22.2%-4.7%--21.6%-15.9%-21.6%
6M Excs Rtn-33.4%-40.8%-2.1%---13.7%-23.6%
12M Excs Rtn-57.6%-39.4%-27.0%--9.7%-33.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-163.0%-65.2%-86.0%--234.3%-75.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
OPTA VIA1,0721,5991,526935714
Total1,0721,5991,526935714


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,061,127
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.0%
Average Daily Volume180,747
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.40
Basic Shares Quantity10,991,000
Short % of Basic Shares18.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025428202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024429202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021