Medifast (MED)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.02 | Market Cap: $121.1 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Medifast (MED)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.02Market Cap: $121.1 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -134%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.4, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 606x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -36%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -107% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -134%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.4, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 606x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -36%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MED Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Medifast (MED) stock moved by -21.5% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Medifast reported a diluted loss per share of $0.21 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, which significantly missed the consensus estimate of a $0.01 loss per share.
2. Continued Decline in Active Coaches and Revenue: The company experienced a substantial year-over-year revenue decrease of 36.2% in Q3 2025, reporting $89.4 million. This was primarily attributed to a 35% decline in the number of active earning OPTAVIA coaches, which fell to 19,500. This continued a trend seen in previous quarters, with Q2 2025 revenue also decreasing due to a decline in active coaches.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MED Return | 86% | 9% | -42% | -38% | -74% | -38% | -88% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 17% | -4% | 33% | 12% | 1% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MED Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 33% | 25% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 37% | 23% | 35% | 33% | 37% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MED Max Drawdown | -53% | -4% | -49% | -43% | -75% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -5% | -24% | -5% | -10% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MED | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 434.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 244.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 458 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 257.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HRB, MATW, MEDG, WW, DASH
In The Past
Medifast's stock fell -81.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/28/2021. A -81.3% loss requires a 434.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Medifast Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MED. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302021 | MED | Medifast | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.9% | -41.5% | -41.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302021 | MED | Medifast | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.9% | -41.5% | -41.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Medifast
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,626 |
| Op Inc LTM | 103 |
| FCF LTM | 288 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 364 |
| CFO LTM | 330 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 404 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 14.4 |
| P/E | 73.0 |
| P/CFO | 33.5 |
| Total Yield | 0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4282025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |