Herbalife (HLF)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $14.31 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Herbalife (HLF)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $14.31Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Nutritional Supplements. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -77% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117% Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 113% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1% Key risksHLF key risks include [1] persistent regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges to its multi-level marketing business model and [2] sustained declining sales volumes and revenue stagnation. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Nutritional Supplements. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -77% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 113% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1% |
| Key risksHLF key risks include [1] persistent regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges to its multi-level marketing business model and [2] sustained declining sales volumes and revenue stagnation. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Declines in key regional sales, particularly North America and China, weighed on performance. While Herbalife reported overall net sales growth in Q1 2026, certain major markets experienced declines. North America's net sales decreased by 3% year-over-year, influenced by severe weather conditions in January and February and elevated shipment levels at quarter-end that deferred revenue recognition. China's reported net sales saw a more substantial decline of 12% year-over-year, primarily driven by an 18% decrease in volume.
2. Increased effective tax rate and anticipated India GST-related costs presented financial headwinds. Herbalife's adjusted effective tax rate in the first quarter of 2026 rose to 27.3% from 21.8% in the same period last year, resulting in an approximate $0.04 unfavorable impact to adjusted diluted earnings per share. Additionally, the company's full-year 2026 guidance incorporates an estimated India Goods and Services Tax (GST)-related net incremental cost of $20 million to $25 million, projected to act as a headwind to adjusted EBITDA.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.0% change in HLF stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.24 | 14.31 | -17.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,962 | 5,133 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 4.7% | -27.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.6 | 6.2 | 11.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 103 | 104 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLF | -17.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 45.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.4% | 27.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 78.9% change in HLF stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 145.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.00 | 14.31 | 78.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,928 | 5,133 | 4.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.6% | 4.7% | -29.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.5 | 6.2 | 145.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 103 | 104 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 78.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLF | 78.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 27.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 11.9% | 28.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 98.8% change in HLF stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 138.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.20 | 14.31 | 98.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,950 | 5,133 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.7% | 4.7% | -17.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.6 | 6.2 | 138.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 102 | 104 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 98.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLF | 98.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 34.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.7% | 32.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.7% change in HLF stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.86 | 14.31 | -3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,204 | 5,133 | -1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.2% | 4.7% | -24.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.5 | 6.2 | 37.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 104 | -5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLF | -3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.0% | 24.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLF Return | -15% | -64% | 3% | -56% | 93% | 12% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 20% | -33% | 5% | -37% | -9% | -7% | -55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLF Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 32% | 52% | 33% | 32% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLF Max Drawdown | -22% | -69% | -23% | -59% | -24% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -45% | -27% | -47% | -37% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NUS, USNA, NATR, MED, SMPL. See HLF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 794 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Herbalife's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | HLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 794 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 213.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 225 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Herbalife's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Herbalife (HLF)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Herbalife:
- Amway for nutrition and weight management.
- A direct-selling version of GNC or The Vitamin Shoppe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Weight Management Products: Offers meal replacements, protein shakes, drink mixes, weight loss enhancers, and healthy snacks to support weight goals.
- Targeted Nutrition Products: Provides functional beverages and dietary/nutritional supplements containing herbs, vitamins, and minerals for specific health needs.
- Energy, Sports, and Fitness Products: Includes N-R-G tea and other energy drink products designed to support vitality and athletic performance.
- Outer Nutrition Products: Comprises a range of facial skin, body, and hair care products for external well-being.
- Sales and Educational Materials: Supplies start-up kits, sales tools, and educational content for its independent service providers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Herbalife (HLF) operates a direct selling business model, meaning it sells its products primarily to a global network of independent distributors and sales representatives. These distributors then resell the products to end consumers, who are individuals.
Given that Herbalife's products are designed for individual consumption and the ultimate recipients are individuals, the company primarily serves the following categories of customers:
- Individuals seeking Weight Management and General Wellness: This category includes consumers interested in meal replacement products, protein shakes, weight loss enhancers, and healthy snacks, as well as those looking for targeted nutrition through functional beverages, dietary supplements, vitamins, minerals, and herbal products for overall health.
- Athletes and Fitness Enthusiasts: Customers in this group utilize Herbalife's energy, sports, and fitness products, such as N-R-G tea and other energy drinks, to support their active lifestyles, performance, and recovery.
- Beauty and Personal Care Consumers: This category comprises individuals who purchase outer nutrition products, including facial skin care, body care, and hair care items.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Stephan Gratziani, Chief Executive Officer
Stephan Gratziani assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer of Herbalife effective May 1, 2025. He previously served as President of Herbalife starting January 2024 and Chief Strategy Officer since August 2023. Prior to joining the corporate team, Mr. Gratziani spent 32 years as an independent Herbalife distributor, where he successfully built and expanded his international business into one of the company's top global distributorships.
John DeSimone, Chief Financial Officer
John DeSimone was appointed Chief Financial Officer in March 2024, a position he previously held from 2010 to 2018. He has been an executive at Herbalife for 17 years, also serving as President and Co-President from 2018 to 2022, and most recently as a Special Advisor to the CEO. Before joining Herbalife, Mr. DeSimone served as the controller, vice president of finance, and chief financial officer for Rexall Sundown, Inc., a publicly traded multinational manufacturer of nutritional supplements.
Michael O. Johnson, Executive Chairman
Michael O. Johnson transitioned to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board effective May 1, 2025. He has had a significant tenure with Herbalife, serving as CEO multiple times, including from 2003 to 2017, and then again from October 2022 to May 2025. Before his time at Herbalife, Mr. Johnson spent 17 years at The Walt Disney Company, where he held the position of President of Walt Disney International, expanding Disney's international markets from 34 to 80.
Rob Levy, President, Worldwide Markets
Rob Levy was appointed President, Worldwide Markets, effective May 1, 2025. He has a 30-year career at Herbalife, during which he has held various senior leadership roles and has led every region of the company.
Frank Lamberti, Chief Commercial Officer
Frank Lamberti serves as Chief Commercial Officer for Herbalife, responsible for driving commercial strategies and overseeing marketing, corporate communications, social impact, and independent distributor and customer success. Since joining Herbalife in 2005, he has held numerous leadership positions across finance, operations, regional management, and executive strategy, including Chief Operating Officer and Regional President of the Americas. Prior to Herbalife, Mr. Lamberti held leadership roles in finance and operations at companies such as Sunbeam, DHL, Rexall Sundown, Precision Response Corporation, and Blockbuster Entertainment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Herbalife (symbol: HLF) faces several key risks to its business model, primarily stemming from ongoing regulatory scrutiny of its multi-level marketing (MLM) structure, declining sales volumes, and associated reputational challenges.
1. Regulatory Scrutiny and Business Model Challenges
Herbalife's multi-level marketing business model has consistently been a subject of regulatory scrutiny and allegations of operating as a pyramid scheme. In 2016, the company entered into a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), agreeing to pay $200 million and implement significant changes to its business practices. These changes were designed to ensure that distributor compensation is based on actual retail sales to genuine customers, rather than primarily on recruiting new distributors, and to make truthful claims about potential earnings. Despite this settlement, the risk of further regulatory challenges, litigation, and the need to continually demonstrate the legitimacy of its direct-selling model remains a significant concern. Moreover, some analyses suggest that the traditional MLM model itself may be becoming outdated due to the rise of e-commerce and increased consumer transparency.
2. Declining Sales Volume and Stagnant Organic Growth
Herbalife has experienced challenges with declining sales volumes and stagnant organic revenue growth in recent years. Reports indicate a reduction in average quarterly sales volumes, with specific declines noted in regions such as North America and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) in terms of volume points and net sales. This trend suggests difficulties in generating sustained demand for its products and maintaining the performance of its core business.
3. Reputational and Litigation Risks
Beyond the business model controversy, Herbalife is exposed to reputational and litigation risks related to product efficacy, safety, and advertising practices. The company has faced criticism and legal challenges concerning misleading claims about product effectiveness and income potential for distributors. Historically, there have been reports linking certain Herbalife products to health issues, such as liver damage, although the company maintains there is no evidence connecting its products to such reports. Additionally, past accusations included exceeding lead limits in products under California's Proposition 65 regulations. Such issues contribute to ongoing litigation risk and can adversely impact the company's brand image and consumer trust.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The proliferation of direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands in the nutrition and wellness space. These digitally native companies leverage e-commerce, social media, and influencer marketing to reach consumers directly, often offering specialized products with transparent pricing and a streamlined purchasing experience. This model directly challenges Herbalife's multi-level marketing distribution network by providing a more modern, efficient, and potentially more appealing alternative for consumers to acquire similar products.
- The advancement of personalized nutrition platforms and services. These emerging technologies offer highly tailored dietary and supplement recommendations based on individual biometric data, genetic profiles, and AI-driven analysis. As these platforms mature, they present a disruptive alternative to Herbalife's general product lines and the broad nutritional advice typically provided by its independent distributors, by offering more scientifically precise and customized solutions directly to consumers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the estimated addressable market sizes for Herbalife's main products and services globally:
- Weight Management: The global weight management market was valued at approximately USD 144.6 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 381.5 billion by 2033.
- Targeted Nutrition (Dietary Supplements & Functional Beverages):
- Dietary Supplements: The global dietary supplements market size was estimated at USD 210.41 billion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 507.33 billion by 2035.
- Functional Beverages: The global functional beverages market size was calculated at USD 168.32 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 314.04 billion by 2035.
- Energy, Sports, and Fitness (Sports Nutrition & Energy Drinks):
- Sports Nutrition: The global sports nutrition market size was valued at USD 71.55 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 138.48 billion in 2033.
- Energy Drinks: The global energy drink market size was valued at USD 87 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 134 billion by 2030.
- Outer Nutrition (Skincare & Hair Care):
- Skincare: The global skincare market size is projected to grow from USD 159.86 billion in 2025 to USD 231.31 billion by 2032.
- Hair Care: The global hair care market size was valued at USD 93.9 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 183.1 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (HLF) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Strategic Pricing Initiatives: Herbalife has been implementing price increases across a majority of its markets to address region-specific conditions and offset various headwinds. These pricing actions have consistently contributed positively to net sales growth, with pricing contributing significantly to growth, as noted in recent financial reports.
- Digital Transformation and Personalized Nutrition: The company is advancing its digital strategy, notably with the expanded beta access to its Pro2col™ app, which offers tools like customizable sales funnels, website building capabilities, and comprehensive health tracking features. Furthermore, there is a strategic focus on personalized nutrition, with personalized nutritional supplements anticipated to launch for U.S. distributors by the end of the first half of 2026. Global sports icon Cristiano Ronaldo's investment in Pro2col also underscores the ambition to scale personalized nutrition and wellness globally.
- Regional Market Growth and Stabilization: Herbalife anticipates revenue growth from key geographic regions. North America returned to net sales growth in Q3 2025 for the first time since Q2 2021, indicating potential stabilization in a crucial market. Latin America has been leading growth at 11%, followed by EMEA at 4%. For the full year 2026, net sales growth is expected across all regions except China, which is projected to recover in 2027.
- Expansion and Engagement of the Distributor Network: As a direct-selling company, the growth and engagement of its independent service providers and sales representatives are critical. Herbalife saw a 16% increase in new distributors on a two-year stack basis across four of five regions in Q4 2025, with North America achieving 19% year-over-year growth in new distributors for two consecutive quarters.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions for Herbalife (HLF)
Share Repurchases
- On February 9, 2021, Herbalife's board of directors authorized a three-year $1.5 billion share repurchase program, which expired on February 9, 2024, with approximately $985.5 million of remaining authorized capacity.
- In January 2021, the company repurchased approximately $600 million of its common shares from Icahn Enterprises L.P.
- Herbalife spent $8.2 million on share buybacks during fiscal year 2025 and $8.3 million in 2024.
Inbound Investments
- In February 2026, global sports icon Cristiano Ronaldo invested $7.5 million for a 10% equity stake in Herbalife's Pro2col Software, LLC, a technology platform focused on personalized nutrition.
Outbound Investments
- In the first quarter of 2025, Herbalife invested $25.5 million in cash to complete three acquisitions aimed at advancing its position in personalized nutrition and wellness trends.
- In November 2025, the company invested $7 million to establish a new Center of Excellence in Torrance, California, dedicated to bolstering research and product development.
- During 2025, Herbalife acquired software from Pro2col to enhance distributor productivity and customer engagement.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $80.4 million, which included $25 million in capitalized Software as a Service (SaaS) implementation costs.
- For fiscal year 2024, capital expenditures totaled $112.2 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures has been investments in management information systems, including the multi-year Digital Technology Program (Herbalife One) launched in 2022, aimed at enhancing Member-facing technology platforms and tools. Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $50 million and $80 million, with an additional $40 million to $60 million for capitalized SaaS costs.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HLF.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04102026 | ELF | e.l.f. Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -6.2% |
| 04022026 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.3% |
| 04022026 | COKE | Coca-Cola Consolidated | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.5% | 5.5% | -5.2% |
| 03272026 | MZTI | Marzetti | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -8.6% |
| 03272026 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -2.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,171 |
| Op Inc LTM | 66 |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 51 |
| CFO LTM | 53 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 80 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 5.2 |
| P/EBIT | 3.7 |
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -70.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -150.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $14.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/16/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $15.79 | $12.74 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -9.4% | 12.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.2% | 62.8% |
| Downside Capture | 1.26 | 0.64 |
| Upside Capture | 119.86 | 179.03 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.7% | 32.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.49 | 2.24 | 1.79 | 1.46 | 1.71 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | 2.89 | 2.68 | 2.44 | 2.03 | 2.68 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | 5.92 | 1.28 | 2.84 | 0.94 | 1.03 | 0.87 |
| Up Capture | 135% | 154% | 122% | 300% | 265% | 100% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 18 | 29 | 64 | 121 | 364 |
| Down Capture | 359% | 276% | 132% | 63% | 111% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 24 | 34 | 59 | 127 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLF | 113.4% | 62.9% | 1.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.2% | 12.6% | 0.20 | 31.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 33.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -18.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 34.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 8.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLF | -20.7% | 60.6% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.5% | 13.2% | 0.27 | 26.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 27.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 29.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 11.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLF | -6.7% | 49.8% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.7% | 14.7% | 0.39 | 27.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 32.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 10.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 18.3% | 16.4% | -10.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 11.7% | 13.2% | 43.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -6.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -7.9% | -5.7% | 8.5% |
| 2/19/2025 | 42.7% | 53.4% | 42.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 10.9% | 24.2% | 14.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -8.6% | -25.6% | -30.9% |
| 5/1/2024 | 8.1% | 18.8% | 18.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 12.6% | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -7.7% | -16.1% |
| Max Positive | 42.7% | 53.4% | 43.4% |
| Max Negative | -31.7% | -27.7% | -30.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Secured Financing | 1.45 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Revolving Credit Facility | 425.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Term Loan A | 225.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Other Secured Debt | 800.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 155.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| Q1 2026 CapEx | 10.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 20.00 Mil | -34.8% | Lower New | Actual: 23.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 1650.0% | 3.3% | Higher New | Actual: 0.2% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 670.00 Mil | 690.00 Mil | 710.00 Mil | 6.2% | Higher New | Actual: 650.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 CapEx | 50.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | -23.5% | Lower New | Actual: 85.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Helias, Sophie | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 12.70 | 800 | 10,160 | 848,398 | Form | |
| 2 | L'Helias, Sophie | Direct | Buy | 12012025 | 13.22 | 400 | 5,288 | 872,560 | Form | |
| 3 | Cloud, Lynda | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 8.97 | 17,000 | 152,490 | 348,547 | Form | |
| 4 | Mendoza, Juan Miguel | Direct | Buy | 6092025 | 7.50 | 3,143 | 23,572 | 1,275,000 | Form | |
| 5 | Mendoza, Juan Miguel | Direct | Buy | 5232025 | 6.75 | 5,000 | 33,750 | 1,126,285 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.