Herbalife (HLF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.445 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Herbalife (HLF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.445Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 25% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 219% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Nutritional Supplements. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Nutritional Supplements. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 219% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HLF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance and Upbeat Outlook.
Herbalife reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, exceeding analysts' expectations with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50 against a forecast of $0.47, and revenues of $1.3 billion, surpassing the anticipated $1.26 billion. The company also raised its full-year net sales and adjusted EBITDA outlook. This performance indicated a significant turnaround, marking the first return to net sales growth in North America since Q2 2021 and worldwide since Q1 2024.
2. Significant Debt Reduction and Strengthened Financial Stability.
Herbalife fully repaid its 2025 notes in September, effectively reducing its total leverage ratio to 2.8x, which is below its stated commitment of 3x. This move eliminated significant debt maturities until 2028, substantially strengthening the company's financial flexibility and overall stability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLF Return | 1% | -15% | -64% | 3% | -56% | 86% | -74% |
| Peers Return | 32% | 42% | -38% | 1% | -8% | 5% | 14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLF Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 57% | 35% | 52% | 47% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLF Max Drawdown | -51% | -22% | -69% | -23% | -59% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -11% | -47% | -30% | -32% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABT, NUS, NATR, USNA, MTEX. See HLF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 407.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 307.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 493 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ABT, NUS, NATR, USNA, MTEX
In The Past
Herbalife's stock fell -80.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -80.3% loss requires a 407.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HLF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Herbalife
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,237 |
| Op Inc LTM | 51 |
| FCF LTM | 42 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 57 |
| CFO LTM | 64 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 86 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.4 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 7.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -43.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -116.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |