Tearsheet

El Pollo Loco (LOCO)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $10.93 | Market Cap: $319.4 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

El Pollo Loco (LOCO)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $10.93
Market Cap: $319.4 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  Key risks
LOCO key risks include its significant geographic concentration in the greater Los Angeles market, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Organic & Natural Products.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Organic & Natural Products.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76%
5 Key risks
LOCO key risks include its significant geographic concentration in the greater Los Angeles market, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LOCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Financial Performance and Optimistic Outlook: El Pollo Loco reported increased revenue and net income in its fourth quarter 2024 financial results, announced in March 2025. The company's total revenue for Q4 2024 rose to $114.3 million, up from $112.2 million in Q4 2023, with net income increasing to $6.0 million from $4.4 million in the prior year. First-quarter 2025 financial results, announced in May 2025, also showed total revenue reaching $119.2 million, an increase from $116.2 million in Q1 2024, driven by a 0.6% increase in company-operated comparable restaurant sales. Management expressed optimism for 2025, anticipating continued profitable growth and outlining expectations for new company-operated and franchised restaurant openings.

2. Implementation of a Five-Part Strategic Turnaround Plan: CEO Liz Williams, who began her tenure in March 2024, outlined a comprehensive five-part strategic plan to drive sales and growth while decreasing costs. This plan focuses on improving brand awareness and guest experience, fostering a digital-first mindset, enhancing unit-level economics, and achieving new unit growth. Initiatives under this plan included rolling out new equipment for simplified salsa preparation and adding kiosks for more efficient customer ordering, with a full kiosk rollout in company-owned restaurants expected by summer 2024.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LOCO Return20%-22%-19%-11%31%-2%-14%
Peers Return39%-14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LOCO Win Rate50%42%17%25%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate65%62%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LOCO Max Drawdown-55%-33%-42%-18%-6%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-7%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMG, YUM, QSR, WING, CAVA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLOCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven157.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven89.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven339 days120 days

Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD


In The Past

El Pollo Loco's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

Better Bets than El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LOCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for El Pollo Loco

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
Mkt Price10.8537.64153.7570.05259.2056.9163.48
Mkt Cap0.350.242.723.07.26.615.1
Rev LTM48111,7878,0619,1066831,1324,597
Op Inc LTM411,9962,4852,348180791,088
FCF LTM211,5731,5641,3546325708
FCF 3Y Avg261,4041,4131,240921666
CFO LTM402,2151,9061,588103174881
CFO 3Y Avg461,9931,7121,405133134770

Growth & Margins

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
Rev Chg LTM2.1%7.3%11.6%21.8%15.6%23.9%13.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.3%11.9%6.4%14.2%28.5%-11.9%
Rev Chg Q0.9%7.5%8.4%15.9%8.1%19.9%8.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.2%1.8%1.9%3.8%2.0%4.5%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM8.5%16.9%30.8%25.8%26.3%7.0%21.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.3%17.0%31.7%28.8%26.0%5.6%21.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.6%0.8%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM8.3%18.8%23.6%17.4%15.2%15.4%16.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.7%18.6%23.0%18.1%23.8%14.4%18.3%
FCF/Rev LTM4.5%13.3%19.4%14.9%9.2%2.2%11.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.4%13.1%18.9%16.0%16.5%-0.9%14.6%

Valuation

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
Mkt Cap0.350.242.723.07.26.615.1
P/S0.74.35.32.510.65.84.8
P/EBIT7.825.217.110.826.983.721.2
P/E12.232.729.526.741.548.031.1
P/CFO8.022.722.414.569.937.822.6
Total Yield8.2%3.1%5.2%8.4%2.9%2.1%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.8%4.6%0.4%0.0%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.9%2.4%3.6%5.8%1.1%-0.4%3.0%
D/E0.80.10.30.70.20.10.2
Net D/E0.80.10.20.70.10.00.2

Returns

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
1M Rtn7.7%24.0%3.5%3.0%13.4%30.6%10.6%
3M Rtn9.5%-4.3%6.1%9.9%2.4%-10.4%4.2%
6M Rtn-3.1%-28.7%11.6%8.1%-25.8%-23.7%-13.4%
12M Rtn-6.7%-39.2%18.4%7.9%-10.4%-52.2%-8.6%
3Y Rtn3.9%32.1%26.5%16.6%73.5%-26.5%
1M Excs Rtn3.1%18.5%1.3%0.4%8.9%22.3%6.0%
3M Excs Rtn7.5%-8.3%1.4%6.2%-0.7%-15.3%0.4%
6M Excs Rtn-15.3%-43.4%-3.6%-5.2%-41.3%-37.8%-26.6%
12M Excs Rtn-25.5%-54.4%3.4%-5.2%-25.0%-66.8%-25.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-71.4%-48.7%-47.0%-56.0%-7.7%--48.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment469    
Company-operated restaurant revenue 403395374391
Franchise advertising fee revenue 29262322
Franchise revenue 38342929
Total469470454426442


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment40    
Total40    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment26    
Total26    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,763,354
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.5%
Average Daily Volume243,454
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.24
Basic Shares Quantity29,219,480
Short % of Basic Shares6.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/202512.8%14.2%20.8%
7/31/20251.5%0.3%3.2%
3/6/2025-0.1%-7.1%-12.5%
10/31/2024-2.1%6.6%3.5%
8/1/20240.7%-0.1%16.7%
3/7/2024-4.0%-7.2%2.3%
11/2/20230.8%-5.6%-0.2%
8/3/20233.1%3.0%-4.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1078
# Negative91211
Median Positive3.2%3.0%4.9%
Median Negative-7.2%-5.7%-11.0%
Max Positive14.9%14.2%20.8%
Max Negative-19.8%-22.3%-34.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/24/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/25/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/26/2025
12312024307202510-K 12/25/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/25/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/26/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/27/2024
12312023308202410-K 12/27/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/27/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/28/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/29/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/28/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/28/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/29/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/30/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/29/2021