El Pollo Loco (LOCO)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $16.18 | Market Cap: $475.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
El Pollo Loco (LOCO)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $16.18Market Cap: $475.8 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 5.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Organic & Natural Products. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.0% | Key risksLOCO key risks include its significant geographic concentration in the greater Los Angeles market, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Organic & Natural Products. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.0% |
| Key risksLOCO key risks include its significant geographic concentration in the greater Los Angeles market, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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El Pollo Loco (LOCO) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance.
El Pollo Loco reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on April 1, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, surpassing consensus estimates of $0.22 by $0.06. Total revenue reached $126.2 million, outperforming the consensus estimate of $122.02 million.
2. Impressive Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth and Margin Expansion.
The company achieved strong system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 5.8% in fiscal Q1 2026, driven by a 6.1% increase in franchise comparable sales and a 5.4% increase for company-operated locations. This growth was fueled by a 5.7% increase in average check size for company-operated restaurants, despite a slight 0.3% decline in transactions. Furthermore, improved operating efficiencies and higher menu prices led to a substantial expansion in restaurant contribution margin to 19.2% of company-operated restaurant revenue, up from 16.0% in the prior year's quarter.
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El Pollo Loco (LOCO) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance.
El Pollo Loco reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on April 1, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, surpassing consensus estimates of $0.22 by $0.06. Total revenue reached $126.2 million, outperforming the consensus estimate of $122.02 million.
2. Impressive Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth and Margin Expansion.
The company achieved strong system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 5.8% in fiscal Q1 2026, driven by a 6.1% increase in franchise comparable sales and a 5.4% increase for company-operated locations. This growth was fueled by a 5.7% increase in average check size for company-operated restaurants, despite a slight 0.3% decline in transactions. Furthermore, improved operating efficiencies and higher menu prices led to a substantial expansion in restaurant contribution margin to 19.2% of company-operated restaurant revenue, up from 16.0% in the prior year's quarter.
3. Raised Full-Year 2026 Outlook and Shareholder Returns.
Following the strong Q1 results, El Pollo Loco raised its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook, increasing projected system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth to between 2.0% and 4.0% (from a prior range of 1.0% to 3.0%) and Adjusted EBITDA to a range of $67.5 million to $69.5 million (from $66.0 million to $68.0 million). Complementing this positive outlook, the Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $40 million on May 28, 2026, signaling confidence in the company's valuation and commitment to delivering shareholder value.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.8% change in LOCO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.86 | 16.19 | 16.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 490 | 497 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 16.3 | 6.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOCO | 16.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 6.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.7% | 22.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.8% change in LOCO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.46 | 16.19 | 54.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 481 | 497 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.8 | 16.3 | 38.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOCO | 54.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 15.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -7.0% | 24.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 47.0% change in LOCO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.01 | 16.19 | 47.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 476 | 497 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.7 | 16.3 | 28.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 47.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOCO | 47.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 22.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.6% | 35.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 84.6% change in LOCO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.77 | 16.19 | 84.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 474 | 497 | 4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 5.9% | 17.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.5 | 16.3 | 21.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 29 | 23.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 84.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOCO | 84.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 33.5% | 35.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOCO Return | -22% | -19% | -11% | 31% | -9% | 52% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -8% | 36% | 39% | -16% | -9% | 63% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOCO Win Rate | 42% | 17% | 25% | 58% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 45% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOCO Max Drawdown | -43% | -43% | -36% | -17% | -29% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -34% | -21% | -24% | -38% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CMG, YUM, QSR, WING, CAVA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 193 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 411 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 6 days |
In The Past
El Pollo Loco's stock fell -28.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | LOCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 193 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 411 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 62 days |
In The Past
El Pollo Loco's stock fell -28.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About El Pollo Loco (LOCO)
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. operates as a quick-service restaurant (QSR) chain primarily focused on Mexican-inspired grilled chicken. The company's business model encompasses developing, operating, franchising, and licensing restaurants under the "El Pollo Loco" brand. As of December 2021, the company managed a total of 480 restaurants, with a mix of company-operated and franchised locations.
The core product offering centers around its signature flame-grilled chicken, which is complemented by a menu featuring various Mexican-inspired entrees, sides, and beverages. El Pollo Loco primarily serves customers in several U.S. states, including California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Louisiana, with an additional licensed restaurant in the Philippines, targeting individuals and families seeking convenient and flavorful meal options.
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- El Pollo Loco is like the KFC of grilled Mexican chicken.
- El Pollo Loco is like a quick-service Chipotle specializing in fire-grilled chicken.
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- Quick-Service Restaurant Meals: Prepared food and beverage items offered for sale to consumers in its quick-service restaurants.
- Restaurant Franchising: Granting independent operators the right to open and operate El Pollo Loco restaurants under its brand and operational system.
- Restaurant Licensing: Providing permission for third parties to operate El Pollo Loco branded restaurants, often for specific regional or international markets.
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- Individuals seeking convenient and quick meals: These customers are looking for a fast, hassle-free dining option for lunch or dinner, whether they are on a break from work, running errands, or simply don't want to cook.
- Families and groups: El Pollo Loco often caters to families or small groups with its family meal offerings and a menu that appeals to a variety of tastes, providing a convenient solution for feeding multiple people.
- Health-conscious consumers (within the quick-service segment): Due to its focus on flame-grilled chicken and options like salads and bowls, El Pollo Loco attracts customers who are looking for relatively healthier or lighter choices compared to traditional fried fast food, without sacrificing speed or convenience.
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Performance Food Group Company (PFG)
Ben E. Keith Company
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Elizabeth “Liz” Williams, Chief Executive Officer
Elizabeth “Liz” Williams has served as Chief Executive Officer of El Pollo Loco since March 2024. Prior to joining El Pollo Loco, she was the CEO of Outfox Hospitality and Foxtrot, a modern café and convenience store, and also led Hart House, LLC. Ms. Williams also served as CEO of Drybar Holdings. She spent over 10 years at Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) in various roles, including President of Taco Bell International, where she was responsible for strategy, growth, and performance across 30 countries. Before that, she was Taco Bell Global CFO. Ms. Williams has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms, having been CEO of early-stage, private equity ventures like Foxtrot, Hart House, and Drybar. She also served seven years at Dell Computer in finance, brand marketing, and corporate sales positions and spent six years with The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) as Principal in the Consumer and Retail practices. Ms. Williams is currently a board member for Stitch Fix (NASDAQ: SFIX).
Ira Fils, Chief Financial Officer
Ira Fils has served as Chief Financial Officer of El Pollo Loco since June 27, 2022. Before his time at El Pollo Loco, he was the Chief Financial Officer of The Habit Burger Grill from August 2008 to June 2022. During his tenure at The Habit Burger Grill, he oversaw the growth of the company from 20 to over 300 restaurants, led its IPO in 2014, and was involved in its sale to Yum! Brands Inc. in 2020. Mr. Fils also served as Chief Financial Officer of Mimi's Café from 2005 to 2008 and Chief Financial Officer at Rubio's Restaurants, Inc. from 1998 to 2003. He previously held various financial capacities at Family Restaurants and American Restaurant Group. He holds an undergraduate degree in economics and an MBA from the University of California, Irvine.
Maria Hollandsworth, President, Chief Operating Officer
Maria Hollandsworth serves as the President and Chief Operating Officer of El Pollo Loco. She previously served as the company's interim Chief Executive Officer from November 2023 until March 2024.
Jill Adams, Chief Marketing Officer
Jill Adams has served as Chief Marketing Officer since October 2023. Prior to joining El Pollo Loco, Ms. Adams held various leadership roles in field marketing, product marketing, menu strategy, integrated marketing, and innovation & growth at Jack in the Box, Inc. She holds an MBA from California State University-Sacramento and a bachelor's degree in business management and marketing from the University of Kentucky.
Jason Weintraub, Chief Legal Officer and Chief People Officer
Jason Weintraub has served as Chief Legal Officer since June 2025 and as Chief People Officer since October 2025. He previously served as Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel of Jacuzzi Group, a global, private equity-owned consumer products manufacturer. Mr. Weintraub also served as Chief Legal Officer of El Pollo Loco, Inc. prior to his time at Jacuzzi Group, where he managed public company governance and compliance matters and led the company's legal, regulatory, corporate compliance, and risk management functions.
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Key Business Risks for El Pollo Loco (LOCO)
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Rising Labor and Food Costs, Economic Instability, and Consumer Sensitivity
El Pollo Loco faces significant challenges from increasing labor costs, particularly due to wage hikes in regions like California. Fluctuations in the cost of food and supplies, especially chicken, directly impact the company's profitability and margins. Furthermore, economic instability and high consumer price sensitivity contribute to a "soft top line" and decreased average check sizes, despite efforts to improve operational efficiency.
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Intense Competition and Challenges in Unit Growth and Market Expansion
The quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry is highly competitive. El Pollo Loco operates in a "brutal" and "intense" market with strong competition from other national chains, particularly within the Mexican food segment. The success of the company's growth strategy, which includes opening new restaurants and expanding into new markets, is a key risk. Challenges in executing these expansion plans could materially impact revenue growth and share price.
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Food Safety, Brand Reputation, and Digital Strategy Risks
Food safety remains a critical concern for quick-service restaurants, with potential issues such as cross-contamination, improper storage, and inadequate cooking practices posing substantial risks. Any incidents of foodborne illness or negative publicity, particularly through social media, could materially harm El Pollo Loco's brand reputation and business. The company's increasing reliance on digital platforms, delivery services, and catering also introduces risks related to system failures, data security vulnerabilities, and the impact of high third-party delivery costs on profitability.
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The emergence and rapid growth of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands pose a significant emerging threat. These businesses operate with minimal or no physical storefronts, focusing exclusively on food delivery and leveraging lower overhead costs. This model allows for rapid development of diverse, specialized menus and aggressive pricing strategies, directly competing with traditional quick-service restaurants like El Pollo Loco for the increasingly important delivery market segment. The agility and reduced capital expenditure of ghost kitchens enable them to quickly adapt to consumer trends and capture market share without the operational complexities of brick-and-mortar establishments.
The increasing adoption of advanced food automation and robotics in quick-service restaurant operations presents another emerging threat. As robotic systems become more sophisticated and cost-effective, competitors may leverage automation for food preparation, cooking, and even service. This could lead to significant reductions in labor costs, increased operational efficiency, greater consistency in food quality, and faster service times. Traditional QSRs like El Pollo Loco, which rely heavily on human labor, could face a competitive disadvantage in terms of cost structure and speed if they do not adequately adapt to or invest in these emerging technologies.
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The addressable market for El Pollo Loco's main products and services in the United States is primarily within the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, specifically the fast-food chicken restaurant segment. El Pollo Loco specializes in Mexican-style grilled chicken entrees, alongside offerings such as tacos, burritos, quesadillas, and bowls.
The U.S. fast-food chicken restaurant industry was valued at approximately $63.7 billion in 2025. This segment is projected to grow to an estimated $67.2 billion by 2030. This market size represents the annual revenue generated by quick-service chicken restaurants in the U.S., accounting for about 10% of the total fast-food market.
For broader context, the overall U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market was valued at approximately $360 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach an estimated $522 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% from 2027 to 2033. Other estimates for the U.S. QSR market size include around $400 billion in 2024 and a projection to reach $599.87 billion by 2032.
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El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) expects several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, focusing on strategic expansion, enhanced customer engagement, and operational improvements.
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New Restaurant Development and Franchise Expansion: El Pollo Loco plans to accelerate its unit growth, particularly through franchising, and expand into new markets. For fiscal year 2026, the company targets opening 3-4 new company-operated restaurants and 15-16 franchised locations. This disciplined growth strategy through site acquisition and franchise expansion is a core component of its long-term plan.
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Sustainable Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth: A primary focus for El Pollo Loco is to drive sustainable traffic growth across its existing system, aiming for system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3% for the full year 2026. This growth is anticipated to stem from a combination of strategic menu pricing and increased customer foot traffic at established dining locations.
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Digital and Loyalty Program Enhancements: The company is investing in its digital platforms, including loyalty and delivery programs, as a strategic pillar to drive engagement and transactions. In 2025, digital and delivery sales represented 13.8% of total sales, and the Loco Rewards program grew to 5.3 million members. Ongoing app-based promotions and a refreshed loyalty program with exclusive offers are expected to boost customer participation and revenue.
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Culinary Innovation and Brand Positioning: El Pollo Loco is committed to culinary innovation and brand enhancement initiatives to attract new customers and drive transaction growth. Recent introductions like the Mango Habanero fire-grilled chicken, Queso Crunch Burrito Bowls, and a "Protein Packed Menu" demonstrate this focus. The company also plans to introduce new items such as Loco tenders and is testing loaded quesadillas and a crispy grilled chicken sandwich to broaden its appeal.
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Restaurant Remodels and Improved Unit Economics: The company continues its remodeling program for existing restaurants, with plans for 25-35 company-operated and 30-40 franchised remodels in 2026, which historically have generated mid-single-digit sales lifts. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to optimize unit economics through cost reduction initiatives and new restaurant prototypes designed to enhance returns and support overall growth.
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Share Repurchases
- El Pollo Loco repurchased approximately $59 million in shares during 2023.
- As of December 4, 2023, the company had $7.4 million remaining under a $20 million share repurchase authorization that was set to expire on March 31, 2025.
- For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, the company repurchased 163,229 shares for a total of $1.8 million, with the repurchase program being terminated on March 31, 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- El Pollo Loco's projected capital spending for the full fiscal year 2025 was between $30 million and $34 million.
- For 2026, the company expects capital expenditures to be between $37.0 million and $40.0 million.
- The primary focus of these expenditures includes opening new restaurants (with 9 new restaurants opened in 2025 and 18-20 planned for 2026, prioritizing locations outside California and utilizing second-generation sites to reduce build costs), and continuing the remodeling program (69 remodels completed in 2025, with 55-75 planned for 2026). Investments also target loyalty and delivery programs and other technology platforms.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| El Pollo Loco Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| El Pollo Loco Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 69.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,886 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,065 |
| FCF LTM | 819 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 725 |
| CFO LTM | 1,017 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 859 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 490 | 473 | 469 | ||
| Company-operated restaurant revenue | 403 | 395 | |||
| Franchise advertising fee revenue | 29 | 26 | |||
| Franchise revenue | 38 | 34 | |||
| Total | 490 | 473 | 469 | 470 | 454 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 42 | 41 | 40 |
| Total | 42 | 41 | 40 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Total | 26 | 26 | 26 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $16.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/25/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $15.29 | $12.45 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.9% | 30.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.9% | 36.4% |
| Downside Capture | -26.28 | 46.76 |
| Upside Capture | 53.98 | 86.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 5.2% | 21.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.07 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| Up Beta | 1.03 | 1.28 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.76 | 0.45 |
| Down Beta | 0.37 | 0.07 | -0.19 | 0.72 | 0.58 | 0.84 |
| Up Capture | 27% | 51% | 33% | 74% | 79% | 62% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 65 | 129 | 371 |
| Down Capture | -125% | -129% | -75% | -34% | 52% | 90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 29 | 58 | 120 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOCO | 51.7% | 36.3% | 1.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 0.1% | 19.2% | -0.12 | 34.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 21.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 28.1% | 0.66 | -6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.6% | 19.5% | 1.21 | -14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 24.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.0% | 43.0% | -1.31 | 13.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOCO | 1.4% | 35.4% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.6% | 24.0% | 0.19 | 40.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 38.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.9% | 0.07 | 34.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.5% | 0.47 | 18.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOCO | 3.7% | 40.6% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.7% | 22.1% | 0.49 | 37.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 34.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 18.0% | 0.30 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 32.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 9.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 3.6% | -0.2% | 3.6% |
| 3/12/2026 | 16.9% | 31.7% | 27.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | 12.8% | 14.2% | 20.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.5% | 0.3% | 3.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -4.5% | 10.4% |
| 3/6/2025 | -0.1% | -7.1% | -12.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.1% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -0.1% | 16.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 16 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -5.0% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 31.7% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -15.5% | -22.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 3.6% | -0.2% | 3.6% |
| 3/12/2026 | 16.9% | 31.7% | 27.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | 12.8% | 14.2% | 20.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.5% | 0.3% | 3.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -4.5% | 10.4% |
| 3/6/2025 | -0.1% | -7.1% | -12.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.1% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -0.1% | 16.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 16.4% | 22.9% | 26.3% |
| 3/7/2024 | -4.0% | -7.2% | 2.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.8% | -5.6% | -0.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | 3.1% | 3.0% | -4.9% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| 3/9/2023 | -7.9% | -5.7% | -22.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 11.6% | 12.8% | 9.1% |
| 8/4/2022 | -7.2% | -4.2% | -11.4% |
| 5/4/2022 | -1.5% | -8.7% | -4.6% |
| 3/10/2022 | -10.5% | -8.1% | -11.4% |
| 1/10/2022 | 3.3% | 0.4% | -3.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 3.3% | -0.5% | -9.9% |
| 8/5/2021 | 0.9% | -1.8% | -2.4% |
| 5/6/2021 | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| 3/11/2021 | -2.0% | -7.8% | -13.9% |
| 1/12/2021 | -7.2% | -0.2% | -1.8% |
| 10/29/2020 | -19.8% | -15.5% | -11.0% |
| 7/30/2020 | 14.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 16 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -5.0% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 31.7% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -15.5% | -22.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/15/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/06/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/01/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 67.50 Mil | 68.50 Mil | 69.50 Mil | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 67.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital spending | 37.00 Mil | 38.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 38.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 G&A expense | 52.00 Mil | 53.00 Mil | 54.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 53.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Estimated effective income tax rate | 29.0% | 29.25% | 29.5% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 29.0% for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital spending | 37.00 Mil | 38.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 32.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 G&A expense | 52.00 Mil | 53.00 Mil | 54.00 Mil | 9.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 48.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 66.00 Mil | 67.00 Mil | 68.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Estimated effective income tax rate | 29.0% | -0.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 29.13% for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 System-wide restaurant openings | 10 | -4.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.5 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 28.00 Mil | 29.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | -10.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 32.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 G&A expense | 47.50 Mil | 48.50 Mil | 49.50 Mil | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 49.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Effective income tax rate | 29.0% | 29.13% | 29.25% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 29.25% for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7212026 | 16.71 | 11,000 | 183,810 | 59,136,038 | Form | |
| 2 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7162026 | 16.70 | 2,749 | 45,908 | 59,284,349 | Form | |
| 3 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7162026 | 16.71 | 6,533 | 109,166 | 59,365,784 | Form | |
| 4 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7162026 | 16.73 | 1,211 | 20,260 | 59,546,135 | Form | |
| 5 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7142026 | 16.74 | 75,000 | 1,255,500 | 59,602,000 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7212026 | 16.71 | 11,000 | 183,810 | 59,136,038 | Form | |
| 2 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7162026 | 16.70 | 2,749 | 45,908 | 59,284,349 | Form | |
| 3 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7162026 | 16.71 | 6,533 | 109,166 | 59,365,784 | Form | |
| 4 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7162026 | 16.73 | 1,211 | 20,260 | 59,546,135 | Form | |
| 5 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7142026 | 16.74 | 75,000 | 1,255,500 | 59,602,000 | Form | |
| 6 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7062026 | 16.92 | 9,525 | 161,163 | 61,511,882 | Form | |
| 7 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 7062026 | 17.27 | 132,421 | 2,286,911 | 62,948,787 | Form | |
| 8 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 6302026 | 16.91 | 22,600 | 382,166 | 63,875,834 | Form | |
| 9 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 6302026 | 16.58 | 100,000 | 1,658,000 | 63,004,000 | Form | |
| 10 | Biglari,, Sardar | The Lion Fund II, L.P. | Sell | 6302026 | 16.75 | 100,000 | 1,675,000 | 65,325,000 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 28, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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