El Pollo Loco (LOCO)


Market Price (9/13/2026): $15.19 | Market Cap: $451.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

El Pollo Loco (LOCO)


Market Price (9/13/2026): $15.19
Market Cap: $451.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 9.1%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Organic & Natural Products.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.6%

Key risks
LOCO key risks include its significant geographic concentration in the greater Los Angeles market, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 9.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Organic & Natural Products.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.6%
5 Key risks
LOCO key risks include its significant geographic concentration in the greater Los Angeles market, Show more.

LOCO in ETFs

Weight = LOCO's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
IWM0.01%
IWN0.03%
VTWO0.01%
DFAS0.01%
SCHA0.01%
DFAC0.00%
IWV0.00%
+1 more covered ETF

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/1/2026

El Pollo Loco (LOCO) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Performance and Raised Outlook.

El Pollo Loco reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.30 for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 1, 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.28 by $0.02. The company also achieved restaurant contribution margin expansion to 19.5% from 19.1% in the prior year, attributing this improvement to leverage from comparable sales, enhanced operating efficiencies, and higher menu prices. Following these results, management raised its fiscal year 2026 outlook for system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth to between 3.5% and 4.5% and adjusted EBITDA to between $68 million and $70 million.

2. Sustained System-Wide Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth.

The company demonstrated continued demand by delivering a 3.9% increase in system-wide comparable restaurant sales in fiscal Q2 2026. This growth was driven by a 3.0% increase in company-operated comparable restaurant sales and a 4.5% increase in franchise comparable sales.

Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026

El Pollo Loco (LOCO) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Performance and Raised Outlook.

El Pollo Loco reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.30 for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 1, 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.28 by $0.02. The company also achieved restaurant contribution margin expansion to 19.5% from 19.1% in the prior year, attributing this improvement to leverage from comparable sales, enhanced operating efficiencies, and higher menu prices. Following these results, management raised its fiscal year 2026 outlook for system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth to between 3.5% and 4.5% and adjusted EBITDA to between $68 million and $70 million.

2. Sustained System-Wide Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth.

The company demonstrated continued demand by delivering a 3.9% increase in system-wide comparable restaurant sales in fiscal Q2 2026. This growth was driven by a 3.0% increase in company-operated comparable restaurant sales and a 4.5% increase in franchise comparable sales.

3. Strategic National Expansion and Menu Innovation Initiatives.

El Pollo Loco (which operates on a 52- or 53-week fiscal year ending on the last Wednesday of each calendar year) expanded its geographical footprint by entering its 10th state, Idaho, in fiscal Q3 2026. The company has plans to open 18 to 20 new restaurants systemwide in fiscal 2026, nearly doubling its 2025 pace, with the majority of these new locations situated outside of California. Concurrently, new menu innovations such as "Loaded Quesadillas" and "Chatacoffee," launched in late June 2026, and the reintroduction of the "BBQ Black Beans," aimed to boost customer engagement and sales.

4. Broader Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) Market Softening and Consumer Value Sensitivity.

Despite El Pollo Loco's individual performance, the broader U.S. QSR market experienced a softening trend in fiscal Q2 2026, with net sales growing by a modest +2.0% year-over-year and traffic declining by -1.2% year-over-year. Consumers exhibited increased sensitivity to value, with 36% reporting they spent less at restaurants compared to the previous quarter. This challenging macroeconomic environment and consumer behavior likely tempered investor sentiment, acting as a counterweight to the company's positive performance.

5. Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Revenue Miss.

While El Pollo Loco exceeded EPS estimates, its total revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 was $129.57 million, which fell slightly below the consensus analyst estimate of $130.29 million. This minor revenue miss, even when accompanied by stronger-than-expected earnings, may have contributed to the stock remaining largely at the same level during the period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.1% change in LOCO stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)53120269122026Change
Stock Price ($)14.8715.182.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4975010.8%
Net Income Margin (%)5.9%7.0%18.7%
P/E Multiple15.012.9-13.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2930-1.1%
Cumulative Contribution2.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LOCO2.1% 
Market (SPY)1.0%-2.2%
Sector (XLY)-6.5%19.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 37.3% change in LOCO stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820269122026Change
Stock Price ($)11.0615.1837.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4815014.2%
Net Income Margin (%)5.4%7.0%29.2%
P/E Multiple12.512.93.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2930-1.7%
Cumulative Contribution37.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LOCO37.3% 
Market (SPY)11.7%5.8%
Sector (XLY)-3.1%15.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 42.8% change in LOCO stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120259122026Change
Stock Price ($)10.6315.1842.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4805014.4%
Net Income Margin (%)5.2%7.0%35.0%
P/E Multiple12.512.93.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2930-2.1%
Cumulative Contribution42.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LOCO42.8% 
Market (SPY)19.5%17.5%
Sector (XLY)-1.9%30.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 59.6% change in LOCO stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120239122026Change
Stock Price ($)9.5115.1859.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4725016.1%
Net Income Margin (%)5.0%7.0%39.7%
P/E Multiple14.312.9-9.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)353019.2%
Cumulative Contribution59.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
LOCO59.6% 
Market (SPY)75.7%29.9%
Sector (XLY)35.3%35.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
LOCO Return-22%-19%-11%31%-9%44%-4%
Peers Return22%-8%36%39%-16%-11%60%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%102%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LOCO Win Rate42%17%25%58%50%44% 
Peers Win Rate56%40%63%62%45%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LOCO Max Drawdown-43%-43%-36%-17%-29%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-34%-21%-24%-38%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CMG, YUM, QSR, WING, CAVA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventLOCOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-28.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven310 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-20.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.1%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven193 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-28.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.2%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven411 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-42.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven74.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven149 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-55.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven123.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven78 days140 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-18.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.1%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven17 days6 days

Compare to CMG, YUM, QSR, WING, CAVA

In The Past

El Pollo Loco's stock fell -28.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventLOCOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-28.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven310 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-20.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.1%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven193 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-28.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.2%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven411 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-42.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven74.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven149 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-55.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven123.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven78 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-30.6%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven115 days62 days

Compare to CMG, YUM, QSR, WING, CAVA

In The Past

El Pollo Loco's stock fell -28.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 40.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. operates as a quick-service restaurant (QSR) chain primarily focused on Mexican-inspired grilled chicken. The company's business model encompasses developing, operating, franchising, and licensing restaurants under the "El Pollo Loco" brand. As of December 2021, the company managed a total of 480 restaurants, with a mix of company-operated and franchised locations.

The core product offering centers around its signature flame-grilled chicken, which is complemented by a menu featuring various Mexican-inspired entrees, sides, and beverages. El Pollo Loco primarily serves customers in several U.S. states, including California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Louisiana, with an additional licensed restaurant in the Philippines, targeting individuals and families seeking convenient and flavorful meal options.

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  • El Pollo Loco is like the KFC of grilled Mexican chicken.
  • El Pollo Loco is like a quick-service Chipotle specializing in fire-grilled chicken.

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  • Quick-Service Restaurant Meals: Prepared food and beverage items offered for sale to consumers in its quick-service restaurants.
  • Restaurant Franchising: Granting independent operators the right to open and operate El Pollo Loco restaurants under its brand and operational system.
  • Restaurant Licensing: Providing permission for third parties to operate El Pollo Loco branded restaurants, often for specific regional or international markets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

El Pollo Loco (LOCO) primarily sells to individuals. The company operates quick-service restaurants, and its main customers are the consumers who dine at these locations. Here are three categories of customers that El Pollo Loco serves:
  1. Individuals seeking convenient and quick meals: These customers are looking for a fast, hassle-free dining option for lunch or dinner, whether they are on a break from work, running errands, or simply don't want to cook.
  2. Families and groups: El Pollo Loco often caters to families or small groups with its family meal offerings and a menu that appeals to a variety of tastes, providing a convenient solution for feeding multiple people.
  3. Health-conscious consumers (within the quick-service segment): Due to its focus on flame-grilled chicken and options like salads and bowls, El Pollo Loco attracts customers who are looking for relatively healthier or lighter choices compared to traditional fried fast food, without sacrificing speed or convenience.

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Performance Food Group Company (PFG)

Ben E. Keith Company

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Elizabeth “Liz” Williams, Chief Executive Officer

Elizabeth “Liz” Williams has served as Chief Executive Officer of El Pollo Loco since March 2024. Prior to joining El Pollo Loco, she was the CEO of Outfox Hospitality and Foxtrot, a modern café and convenience store, and also led Hart House, LLC. Ms. Williams also served as CEO of Drybar Holdings. She spent over 10 years at Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) in various roles, including President of Taco Bell International, where she was responsible for strategy, growth, and performance across 30 countries. Before that, she was Taco Bell Global CFO. Ms. Williams has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms, having been CEO of early-stage, private equity ventures like Foxtrot, Hart House, and Drybar. She also served seven years at Dell Computer in finance, brand marketing, and corporate sales positions and spent six years with The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) as Principal in the Consumer and Retail practices. Ms. Williams is currently a board member for Stitch Fix (NASDAQ: SFIX).

Ira Fils, Chief Financial Officer

Ira Fils has served as Chief Financial Officer of El Pollo Loco since June 27, 2022. Before his time at El Pollo Loco, he was the Chief Financial Officer of The Habit Burger Grill from August 2008 to June 2022. During his tenure at The Habit Burger Grill, he oversaw the growth of the company from 20 to over 300 restaurants, led its IPO in 2014, and was involved in its sale to Yum! Brands Inc. in 2020. Mr. Fils also served as Chief Financial Officer of Mimi's Café from 2005 to 2008 and Chief Financial Officer at Rubio's Restaurants, Inc. from 1998 to 2003. He previously held various financial capacities at Family Restaurants and American Restaurant Group. He holds an undergraduate degree in economics and an MBA from the University of California, Irvine.

Maria Hollandsworth, President, Chief Operating Officer

Maria Hollandsworth serves as the President and Chief Operating Officer of El Pollo Loco. She previously served as the company's interim Chief Executive Officer from November 2023 until March 2024.

Jill Adams, Chief Marketing Officer

Jill Adams has served as Chief Marketing Officer since October 2023. Prior to joining El Pollo Loco, Ms. Adams held various leadership roles in field marketing, product marketing, menu strategy, integrated marketing, and innovation & growth at Jack in the Box, Inc. She holds an MBA from California State University-Sacramento and a bachelor's degree in business management and marketing from the University of Kentucky.

Jason Weintraub, Chief Legal Officer and Chief People Officer

Jason Weintraub has served as Chief Legal Officer since June 2025 and as Chief People Officer since October 2025. He previously served as Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel of Jacuzzi Group, a global, private equity-owned consumer products manufacturer. Mr. Weintraub also served as Chief Legal Officer of El Pollo Loco, Inc. prior to his time at Jacuzzi Group, where he managed public company governance and compliance matters and led the company's legal, regulatory, corporate compliance, and risk management functions.

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Key Business Risks for El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

  1. Rising Labor and Food Costs, Economic Instability, and Consumer Sensitivity

    El Pollo Loco faces significant challenges from increasing labor costs, particularly due to wage hikes in regions like California. Fluctuations in the cost of food and supplies, especially chicken, directly impact the company's profitability and margins. Furthermore, economic instability and high consumer price sensitivity contribute to a "soft top line" and decreased average check sizes, despite efforts to improve operational efficiency.

  2. Intense Competition and Challenges in Unit Growth and Market Expansion

    The quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry is highly competitive. El Pollo Loco operates in a "brutal" and "intense" market with strong competition from other national chains, particularly within the Mexican food segment. The success of the company's growth strategy, which includes opening new restaurants and expanding into new markets, is a key risk. Challenges in executing these expansion plans could materially impact revenue growth and share price.

  3. Food Safety, Brand Reputation, and Digital Strategy Risks

    Food safety remains a critical concern for quick-service restaurants, with potential issues such as cross-contamination, improper storage, and inadequate cooking practices posing substantial risks. Any incidents of foodborne illness or negative publicity, particularly through social media, could materially harm El Pollo Loco's brand reputation and business. The company's increasing reliance on digital platforms, delivery services, and catering also introduces risks related to system failures, data security vulnerabilities, and the impact of high third-party delivery costs on profitability.

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The emergence and rapid growth of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands pose a significant emerging threat. These businesses operate with minimal or no physical storefronts, focusing exclusively on food delivery and leveraging lower overhead costs. This model allows for rapid development of diverse, specialized menus and aggressive pricing strategies, directly competing with traditional quick-service restaurants like El Pollo Loco for the increasingly important delivery market segment. The agility and reduced capital expenditure of ghost kitchens enable them to quickly adapt to consumer trends and capture market share without the operational complexities of brick-and-mortar establishments.

The increasing adoption of advanced food automation and robotics in quick-service restaurant operations presents another emerging threat. As robotic systems become more sophisticated and cost-effective, competitors may leverage automation for food preparation, cooking, and even service. This could lead to significant reductions in labor costs, increased operational efficiency, greater consistency in food quality, and faster service times. Traditional QSRs like El Pollo Loco, which rely heavily on human labor, could face a competitive disadvantage in terms of cost structure and speed if they do not adequately adapt to or invest in these emerging technologies.

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The addressable market for El Pollo Loco's main products and services in the United States is primarily within the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, specifically the fast-food chicken restaurant segment. El Pollo Loco specializes in Mexican-style grilled chicken entrees, alongside offerings such as tacos, burritos, quesadillas, and bowls.

The U.S. fast-food chicken restaurant industry was valued at approximately $63.7 billion in 2025. This segment is projected to grow to an estimated $67.2 billion by 2030. This market size represents the annual revenue generated by quick-service chicken restaurants in the U.S., accounting for about 10% of the total fast-food market.

For broader context, the overall U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market was valued at approximately $360 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach an estimated $522 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% from 2027 to 2033. Other estimates for the U.S. QSR market size include around $400 billion in 2024 and a projection to reach $599.87 billion by 2032.

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El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) expects several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, focusing on strategic expansion, enhanced customer engagement, and operational improvements.

  1. New Restaurant Development and Franchise Expansion: El Pollo Loco plans to accelerate its unit growth, particularly through franchising, and expand into new markets. For fiscal year 2026, the company targets opening 3-4 new company-operated restaurants and 15-16 franchised locations. This disciplined growth strategy through site acquisition and franchise expansion is a core component of its long-term plan.

  2. Sustainable Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth: A primary focus for El Pollo Loco is to drive sustainable traffic growth across its existing system, aiming for system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3% for the full year 2026. This growth is anticipated to stem from a combination of strategic menu pricing and increased customer foot traffic at established dining locations.

  3. Digital and Loyalty Program Enhancements: The company is investing in its digital platforms, including loyalty and delivery programs, as a strategic pillar to drive engagement and transactions. In 2025, digital and delivery sales represented 13.8% of total sales, and the Loco Rewards program grew to 5.3 million members. Ongoing app-based promotions and a refreshed loyalty program with exclusive offers are expected to boost customer participation and revenue.

  4. Culinary Innovation and Brand Positioning: El Pollo Loco is committed to culinary innovation and brand enhancement initiatives to attract new customers and drive transaction growth. Recent introductions like the Mango Habanero fire-grilled chicken, Queso Crunch Burrito Bowls, and a "Protein Packed Menu" demonstrate this focus. The company also plans to introduce new items such as Loco tenders and is testing loaded quesadillas and a crispy grilled chicken sandwich to broaden its appeal.

  5. Restaurant Remodels and Improved Unit Economics: The company continues its remodeling program for existing restaurants, with plans for 25-35 company-operated and 30-40 franchised remodels in 2026, which historically have generated mid-single-digit sales lifts. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to optimize unit economics through cost reduction initiatives and new restaurant prototypes designed to enhance returns and support overall growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • El Pollo Loco repurchased approximately $59 million in shares during 2023.
  • As of December 4, 2023, the company had $7.4 million remaining under a $20 million share repurchase authorization that was set to expire on March 31, 2025.
  • For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, the company repurchased 163,229 shares for a total of $1.8 million, with the repurchase program being terminated on March 31, 2025.

Capital Expenditures

  • El Pollo Loco's projected capital spending for the full fiscal year 2025 was between $30 million and $34 million.
  • For 2026, the company expects capital expenditures to be between $37.0 million and $40.0 million.
  • The primary focus of these expenditures includes opening new restaurants (with 9 new restaurants opened in 2025 and 18-20 planned for 2026, prioritizing locations outside California and utilizing second-generation sites to reduce build costs), and continuing the remodeling program (69 remodels completed in 2025, with 55-75 planned for 2026). Investments also target loyalty and delivery programs and other technology platforms.

Better Bets vs. El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

Peer Outperformance in Restaurants

LOCO has outperformed 61% of its 33 Restaurants peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is CAKE. Restaurants ranks 10th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Restaurants constituents that LOCO has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
91%
of 44 industry peers · 50.0% return
3Y
83%
of 41 industry peers · 67.4% return
5Y
61%
of 33 industry peers · 0.8% return
Restaurants peers with revenue growth within 4pp of LOCO's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
LOCO El Pollo Loco 2.0% 12.9x 50.0%67.4%0.8%
CAKE Cheesecake Factory 4.4% 26.8x 85.0%268.0%152.2% +151pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is LOCO's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -21.1%84.5%71.0% LINC 309% · CVSA 227% · PRDO 227%
Homebuilding 18 -14.7%21.5%40.5% GRBK 202% · PHM 157% · TOL 134%
Specialty Stores 7 11.7%40.0%16.6% SIG 39% · FIVE 32% · ASO 25%
Automotive Retail 18 -11.4%7.6%10.0% MUSA 260% · PAG 172% · ORLY 119%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 12.9%48.4%5.6% RCL 219% · MAR 149% · HLT 138%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -26.1%-8.7%4.5% HVT 16% · LOW 5% · HD 4%
Distributors 4 -12.0%-23.6%-8.0% ARMK 159% · GPC 30% · LKQ -46%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -16.0%27.3%-14.2% HRB 115% · FTDR 77% · SCI 43%
Home Furnishings 4 -6.7%21.6%-15.9% SGI 47% · LZB 2% · MHK -34%
Restaurants ← 34 -12.2%-16.1%-17.3% EAT 320% · CAKE 152% · RAVE 130%
Footwear 9 42.7%46.4%-18.3% WEYS 162% · SHOO 24% · DECK 16%
Leisure Products 13 -22.4%-18.2%-33.6% GOLF 80% · HAS 15% · BC -19%
Leisure Facilities 11 -4.0%-11.7%-35.3% OSW 121% · JAKK 102% · ESCA 14%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -8.7%-19.4%-35.9% MCRI 115% · RRR 63% · RSI 63%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -10.7%-8.0%-38.2% MOD 1549% · GTX 282% · STRT 90%
Apparel Retail 25 -9.5%13.8%-39.5% ANF 307% · URBN 147% · ROST 115%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 27 -7.6%9.6%-40.4% TPR 234% · RL 230% · ELA 222%
Household Appliances 18 -1.8%22.9%-44.1% FLXS 168% · KEQU 165% · HBB 114%
Broadline Retail 15 -12.2%15.3%-54.8% DDS 321% · EBAY 62% · AMZN 49%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -15.2%18.8%-58.4% BBY 1% · GME -58% · UPBD -60%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -78.1%-49.5%-72.3% GM 76% · TSLA 48% · F 47%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -31.0%-50.5%-77.9% TLF 109% · BBW 89% · WINA 75%
Consumer Electronics 11 -13.5%-7.1%-78.5% AXIL 2464% · GRMN 84% · MSN -57%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

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Financials

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
Mkt Price15.1836.20140.8776.96117.1055.8866.42
Mkt Cap0.546.238.726.83.26.516.6
Rev LTM50112,4248,7249,6997211,3745,049
Op Inc LTM541,9182,6502,6152011011,060
FCF LTM411,5691,6791,63212849849
FCF 3Y Avg291,4451,5271,3889836743
CFO LTM742,3282,0831,9041892201,062
CFO 3Y Avg532,0991,8491,603151177890

Growth & Margins

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
Rev Chg LTM4.4%7.3%10.3%6.5%7.6%26.8%7.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.0%10.2%7.8%12.9%20.8%28.7%11.6%
Rev Chg Q3.0%9.3%12.3%4.6%6.4%31.3%7.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%2.3%2.8%1.1%1.6%6.8%2.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM35.1%-4.0%8.7%11.4%17.7%35.8%14.5%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg17.1%9.1%6.2%7.8%24.2%91.6%13.1%
Op Mgn LTM10.7%15.4%30.4%27.0%27.9%7.3%21.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.2%16.7%31.3%27.3%26.6%6.5%21.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%-0.5%-0.2%0.3%0.9%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM14.8%18.7%23.9%19.6%26.3%16.0%19.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.9%18.1%23.3%18.2%23.6%16.1%18.2%
FCF/Rev LTM8.2%12.6%19.2%16.8%17.8%3.6%14.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.9%12.5%19.3%15.8%15.4%3.1%13.9%

Valuation

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
Mkt Cap0.546.238.726.83.26.516.6
P/S0.93.74.42.84.44.74.1
P/Op Inc8.424.114.610.215.964.815.2
P/EBIT8.624.114.310.315.964.815.1
P/E12.932.617.521.027.498.324.2
P/CFO6.119.918.614.116.829.617.7
Total Yield7.7%3.1%7.8%9.0%4.7%1.0%6.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.1%4.3%1.0%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.2%2.4%3.7%6.0%1.4%0.4%3.0%
D/E0.50.10.30.60.40.10.4
Net D/E0.50.10.30.50.40.00.3

Returns

LOCOCMGYUMQSRWINGCAVAMedian
NameEl Pollo.Chipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Wingstop Cava  
1M Rtn-1.7%11.0%-6.1%0.5%3.1%-22.6%-0.6%
3M Rtn-2.9%12.3%-8.2%3.8%-27.6%-38.6%-5.6%
6M Rtn19.3%11.3%-11.3%7.8%-42.1%-31.9%-1.7%
12M Rtn50.0%-6.3%-3.9%26.8%-55.6%-12.2%-5.1%
3Y Rtn67.4%-6.4%15.7%26.2%-29.6%56.8%20.9%
1M Excs Rtn1.0%12.1%-4.6%3.9%6.0%-18.4%2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-7.0%12.3%-11.2%1.5%-27.2%-40.2%-9.1%
6M Excs Rtn24.8%-3.6%-25.0%-6.1%-53.8%-45.2%-15.5%
12M Excs Rtn32.9%-23.7%-18.9%11.7%-75.2%-31.5%-21.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-6.6%-78.8%-53.8%-44.0%-94.5%-40.1%-48.9%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single segment490473469470 
Company-operated restaurant revenue    395
Franchise advertising fee revenue    26
Franchise revenue    34
Total490473469470454


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Single segment42414030
Total42414030


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Single segment26262621
Total26262621


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$15.18 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.5 
First Trading Date07/25/2014 
Distance from 52W High-11.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$15.76$13.39
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-3.7%13.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility33.5%36.9%
Downside Capture36.1934.32
Upside Capture15.9975.37
Correlation (SPY)-4.9%17.7%
LOCO Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.02-0.01-0.080.160.510.68
Up Beta-0.32-0.860.020.180.420.44
Down Beta0.40-0.91-0.560.270.520.83
Up Capture-48%3%12%41%62%49%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days10213468129374
Down Capture115%121%0%-33%45%91%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days11213057120371

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LOCO
LOCO50.4%37.0%1.16-
Sector ETF (XLY)-2.4%19.5%-0.2529.7%
Equity (SPY)18.3%12.8%1.0318.0%
Gold (GLD)19.0%29.2%0.59-5.2%
Commodities (DBC)48.3%20.6%1.80-14.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.6%13.6%0.2921.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-32.4%43.8%-0.7710.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LOCO
LOCO0.1%35.7%0.07-
Sector ETF (XLY)5.1%24.1%0.1740.0%
Equity (SPY)12.5%17.2%0.5537.4%
Gold (GLD)18.7%18.8%0.810.4%
Commodities (DBC)11.4%19.5%0.462.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.7%18.9%-0.0734.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.4%52.6%0.3618.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with LOCO
LOCO2.9%40.6%0.20-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.0%22.2%0.4936.9%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7233.8%
Gold (GLD)12.3%16.3%0.620.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.7%18.1%0.3911.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1932.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.2%66.2%1.039.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 815202619.8%
Average Daily Volume0.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity29.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares6.2%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/9/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/2026-7.4%-5.6%-6.1%
5/7/20263.6%-0.2%3.6%
3/12/202616.9%31.7%27.4%
10/30/202512.8%14.2%20.8%
7/31/20251.5%0.3%3.2%
5/1/2025-3.7%-4.5%10.4%
3/6/2025-0.1%-7.1%-12.5%
10/31/2024-2.1%6.6%3.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive13911
# Negative131715
Median Positive3.3%6.6%9.1%
Median Negative-4.0%-5.6%-6.1%
Max Positive16.9%31.7%27.4%
Max Negative-19.8%-15.5%-22.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/2026-7.4%-5.6%-6.1%
5/7/20263.6%-0.2%3.6%
3/12/202616.9%31.7%27.4%
10/30/202512.8%14.2%20.8%
7/31/20251.5%0.3%3.2%
5/1/2025-3.7%-4.5%10.4%
3/6/2025-0.1%-7.1%-12.5%
10/31/2024-2.1%6.6%3.5%
8/1/20240.7%-0.1%16.7%
5/2/202416.4%22.9%26.3%
3/7/2024-4.0%-7.2%2.3%
11/2/20230.8%-5.6%-0.2%
8/3/20233.1%3.0%-4.9%
5/4/2023-1.8%-2.8%-2.8%
3/9/2023-7.9%-5.7%-22.5%
11/3/202211.6%12.8%9.1%
8/4/2022-7.2%-4.2%-11.4%
5/4/2022-1.5%-8.7%-4.6%
3/10/2022-10.5%-8.1%-11.4%
1/10/20223.3%0.4%-3.3%
11/4/20213.3%-0.5%-9.9%
8/5/20210.9%-1.8%-2.4%
5/6/20214.2%1.3%0.7%
3/11/2021-2.0%-7.8%-13.9%
1/12/2021-7.2%-0.2%-1.8%
10/29/2020-19.8%-15.5%-11.0%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive13911
# Negative131715
Median Positive3.3%6.6%9.1%
Median Negative-4.0%-5.6%-6.1%
Max Positive16.9%31.7%27.4%
Max Negative-19.8%-15.5%-22.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202605/08/202610-Q
12/31/202503/13/202610-K
09/30/202510/31/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/02/202510-Q
12/31/202403/07/202510-K
09/30/202411/01/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202303/08/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202203/10/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202605/08/202610-Q
12/31/202503/13/202610-K
09/30/202510/31/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/02/202510-Q
12/31/202403/07/202510-K
09/30/202411/01/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202303/08/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202203/10/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
06/30/202208/05/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q
12/31/202103/11/202210-K
09/30/202111/05/202110-Q
06/30/202108/06/202110-Q
03/31/202105/07/202110-Q
12/31/202003/15/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/31/202010-Q
03/31/202005/01/202010-Q
12/31/201903/06/202010-K
09/30/201911/01/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/7/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 System-wide comparable restaurant sales growthReported3.5%4.0%4.5% 1.0%RaisedGuidance: 3.0% for 2026
2026 Capital spendingReported33.00 Mil35.00 Mil37.00 Mil-9.1% LoweredGuidance: 38.50 Mil for 2026
2026 G&A expenseReported52.00 Mil53.00 Mil54.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 53.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported68.00 Mil69.00 Mil70.00 Mil0.7% RaisedGuidance: 68.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Estimated effective income tax rateReported29.0%29.25%29.5% 0AffirmedGuidance: 29.25% for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 System-wide comparable restaurant sales growthReported2.0%3.0%4.0% 1.0%RaisedGuidance: 2.0% for 2026
2026 Capital spendingReported37.00 Mil38.50 Mil40.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 38.50 Mil for 2026
2026 G&A expenseReported52.00 Mil53.00 Mil54.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 53.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported67.50 Mil68.50 Mil69.50 Mil2.2% RaisedGuidance: 67.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Estimated effective income tax rateReported29.0%29.25%29.5% 0.2%RaisedGuidance: 29.0% for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 System-wide comparable restaurant sales growthReported1.0%2.0%3.0%   
2026 Capital spendingReported37.00 Mil38.50 Mil40.00 Mil32.8% Higher NewGuidance: 29.00 Mil for 2025
2026 G&A expenseReported52.00 Mil53.00 Mil54.00 Mil9.3% Higher NewGuidance: 48.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported66.00 Mil67.00 Mil68.00 Mil   
2026 Estimated effective income tax rateReported 29.0%  -0.1%Lower NewGuidance: 29.13% for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 System-wide restaurant openingsReported 10 -4.8% LoweredGuidance: 10.5 for 2025
2025 G&A expenseReported47.50 Mil48.50 Mil49.50 Mil-2.0% LoweredGuidance: 49.50 Mil for 2025
2025 Effective income tax rateReported29.0%29.13%29.25% -0.1%LoweredGuidance: 29.25% for 2025
2025 Capital ExpendituresReported28.00 Mil29.00 Mil30.00 Mil-10.8% LoweredGuidance: 32.50 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 8/25/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell811202617.065509,3835,375,913Form
2Biglari,, SardarFirst Guard Insurance CompanySell811202617.065509,3831,123,776Form
3Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell805202616.9040,000676,0005,334,789Form
4Biglari,, SardarFirst Guard Insurance CompanySell805202616.9040,000676,0001,122,532Form
5Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell805202616.7310,000167,3005,950,326Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell811202617.065509,3835,375,913Form
2Biglari,, SardarFirst Guard Insurance CompanySell811202617.065509,3831,123,776Form
3Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell805202616.9040,000676,0005,334,789Form
4Biglari,, SardarFirst Guard Insurance CompanySell805202616.9040,000676,0001,122,532Form
5Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell805202616.7310,000167,3005,950,326Form
6Biglari,, SardarFirst Guard Insurance CompanySell805202616.7310,000167,3001,780,440Form
7Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell731202616.702734,5596,106,656Form
8Biglari,, SardarFirst Guard Insurance CompanySell731202616.702734,5591,944,247Form
9Biglari,, SardarBiglari Reinsurance Ltd.Sell731202616.713,30655,2436,114,874Form
10Biglari,, SardarFirst Guard Insurance CompanySell731202616.713,30555,2271,949,973Form
11Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell721202616.7111,000183,81059,136,038Form
12Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell716202616.702,74945,90859,284,349Form
13Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell716202616.716,533109,16659,365,784Form
14Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell716202616.731,21120,26059,546,135Form
15Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell714202616.7475,0001,255,50059,602,000Form
16Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell706202616.929,525161,16361,511,882Form
17Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell706202617.27132,4212,286,91162,948,787Form
18Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell630202616.9122,600382,16663,875,834Form
19Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell630202616.58100,0001,658,00063,004,000Form
20Biglari,, SardarThe Lion Fund II, L.P.Sell630202616.75100,0001,675,00065,325,000Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 13, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Biglari Capital Corp.$55.4 Mil6.0%19Hold13F
Active Manager
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Biglari Capital Corp.$55.4 Mil6.0%19Hold13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/12/2026