Intuit (INTU)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $415.44 | Market Cap: $115.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Intuit (INTU)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $415.44Market Cap: $115.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil | Key risksINTU key risks include [1] significant regulatory scrutiny over its business practices, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Key risksINTU key risks include [1] significant regulatory scrutiny over its business practices, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant valuation compression driven by a recalibration for higher interest rates.
Intuit's stock experienced a steep price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple contraction, dropping from over 50x to roughly 27x. This 38% reduction in its P/E multiple was primarily due to investors recalibrating for a higher, longer interest rate environment, impacting the valuation of growth-oriented software stocks like Intuit.
2. Decelerating growth outlook and ongoing Mailchimp integration challenges.
The company's Q3 revenue growth forecast of 10% represented a considerable slowdown compared to the 17% growth reported in Q2. Furthermore, the Mailchimp acquisition continued to be a drag on the Global Business Solutions segment, with its revenue growth lagging behind other components.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.2% change in INTU stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 632.91 | 416.44 | -34.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,433 | 20,121 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 21.6% | 1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.9 | 26.7 | -37.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 278 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | -34.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 21.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | -9.1% | 24.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.3% change in INTU stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 664.56 | 416.44 | -37.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,184 | 20,121 | 10.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.1% | 21.6% | 13.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 53.7 | 26.7 | -50.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 280 | 278 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | -37.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 24.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | -0.7% | 24.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.7% change in INTU stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 609.70 | 416.44 | -31.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,167 | 20,121 | 17.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.7% | 21.6% | 21.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.2 | 26.7 | -52.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 280 | 278 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | -31.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 47.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 15.9% | 46.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.3% change in INTU stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 399.26 | 416.44 | 4.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,684 | 20,121 | 47.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 21.6% | 51.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 57.7 | 26.7 | -53.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 281 | 278 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTU | 4.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 52.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 94.5% | 50.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTU Return | 70% | -39% | 62% | 1% | 6% | -35% | 18% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 5% | 31% | 25% | -2% | -26% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTU Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 43% | 60% | 57% | 43% | 7% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTU Max Drawdown | -5% | -45% | -3% | -10% | -13% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -23% | -8% | -3% | -19% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, ADP, HRB, TRI. See INTU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 908 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 445 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, ORCL, ADP, HRB, TRI
In The Past
Intuit's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Intuit (INTU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. The Microsoft Office for personal and small business finances.
2. Like Shopify is the e-commerce platform for online stores, Intuit's QuickBooks is the financial platform for small businesses.
3. It's like the Salesforce for small business finances, combined with the digital H&R Block for personal taxes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- QuickBooks: Financial management and accounting software solutions for small businesses and self-employed individuals.
- QuickBooks Payroll: Services for online payroll processing, direct deposit, and tax compliance for businesses.
- QuickBooks Payments: Payment processing solutions for businesses to accept credit/debit cards, Apple Pay, and ACH payments.
- QuickBooks Cash: A business bank account tailored for small businesses.
- TurboTax: Income tax preparation products and services designed for consumers.
- Credit Karma: A personal finance platform offering personalized recommendations for loans, credit cards, and insurance products.
- ProConnect Tax Software: Professional tax preparation software (e.g., Lacerte, ProSeries) and online tax products for accounting professionals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intuit (symbol: INTU) serves a diverse customer base, selling its products and services to three major categories of customers:
- Small Businesses and Self-Employed Individuals: This category encompasses a vast number of small businesses across various sectors and independent contractors or self-employed individuals. Intuit provides them with comprehensive financial management, accounting, payroll, payment processing, and banking solutions, primarily through its QuickBooks ecosystem.
- Individual Consumers: This category includes millions of individual consumers who utilize Intuit's platforms for personal financial management and tax preparation. Key offerings for this group include TurboTax for income tax filing and the Credit Karma platform, which provides personalized recommendations for financial products such as home, auto, and personal loans, as well as credit cards and insurance.
- Accounting Professionals: Intuit caters to a significant segment of accounting professionals and tax preparers. These professionals use specialized software like Lacerte, ProSeries, ProFile, ProConnect Tax Online, and dedicated QuickBooks Accountant solutions to manage their clients' financial records and tax obligations efficiently.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Sasan Goodarzi, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Sasan Goodarzi became Intuit's CEO in 2019, leading the company's transformation into an AI-driven expert and global financial technology platform. He joined Intuit in 2004 and held various leadership roles, including executive vice president and general manager of the Small Business and Self-Employed Group and chief information officer. Before Intuit, Mr. Goodarzi served as global president of the products group for Invensys and held senior leadership roles at Honeywell. He also co-founded and served as CEO of the technology startup Lazer Cables Inc.
Sandeep Aujla, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Sandeep Aujla assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer for Intuit effective August 1, 2023. He oversees Intuit's financial strategy, operations, and investor engagement. Prior to his appointment as CFO, he served as Senior Vice President of Finance for Intuit's Small Business and Self-Employed Group and for Intuit's Technology organization. Before joining Intuit, Mr. Aujla held leadership roles in finance at Visa and had a background in investment banking at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Alex Balazs, Executive Vice President & Chief Technology Officer
Alex Balazs leads Intuit's global technology organization, encompassing engineering, architecture, security, and infrastructure. With over 20 years at Intuit, he has held roles including Chief Architect and Senior Vice President. He became CTO in 2019 and is recognized as the technical mind behind many of the company's core platforms, including QuickBooks and the AI-powered Intuit Assist.
Greg Johnson, Executive Vice President and General Manager, Consumer Group
Greg Johnson is the Executive Vice President and General Manager of Intuit's Consumer Group, a position he was appointed to in August 2018. He is responsible for leading the strategic direction and operations of this segment.
Lara Balazs, Chief Marketing Officer
As Intuit's Chief Marketing Officer, Lara Balazs is responsible for driving the company's growth initiatives and enhancing its brand presence.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Intuit's business:
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Disruption and Uncertainty: Intuit faces significant investor concern and market volatility due to the potential for AI to disrupt its traditional software business models in tax preparation and accounting. While Intuit is actively integrating AI into its products, there is uncertainty regarding whether these investments will translate into sustained profitability and competitive advantage. The company's reliance on AI also introduces new security vulnerabilities, such as prompt injection attacks, which could potentially expose sensitive financial data.
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Regulatory and Competitive Pressures:
- IRS Direct File Program: The expansion of the IRS's "Direct File" program poses a substantial competitive threat to Intuit's highly profitable TurboTax franchise. This government-offered free tax-filing system, already piloted in several U.S. states, could lead to a loss of customers, particularly those with simpler tax returns.
- FTC Scrutiny and Lawsuits: Intuit has faced legal challenges and regulatory actions from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) concerning deceptive advertising practices related to its "free" tax products. Ongoing regulatory scrutiny could result in further lawsuits, stricter advertising limitations, and broader regulatory changes impacting the company's operations and product offerings.
- Data Privacy and Security Risks: As a provider of financial management and compliance products, Intuit handles a vast amount of sensitive personal and financial information. This makes the company a prime target for cyberattacks and data breaches. There have been reports of past data breaches and associated class-action lawsuits alleging that customer data, including Social Security numbers and financial details, was compromised. The increasing integration of AI further amplifies these security risks, as AI systems processing financial data could be vulnerable to new types of attacks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
A clear emerging threat to Intuit, particularly impacting its Consumer segment (TurboTax), is the development and expansion of government-sponsored free tax filing services, such as the IRS Direct File pilot program in the United States. This initiative offers eligible taxpayers a direct and free method to file their federal income taxes, bypassing commercial tax preparation software providers like TurboTax. If such programs become widely adopted and expanded to cover more complex tax situations and states, they could significantly erode Intuit's market share and revenue from its dominant consumer tax preparation products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intuit Inc. operates in several significant addressable markets across its four segments. Here's a breakdown of the market sizes for its main products and services:
Small Business & Self-Employed Segment (QuickBooks)
- Intuit's QuickBooks accounting software holds a commanding 80% market share among small businesses in the U.S.. Another source indicates an 81% market share in the U.S. accounting software market.
- The global accounting software market was valued at USD 19.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 42.17 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% during the forecast period.
- North America is a dominant region in the global accounting software market, holding a 35.77% market share in 2024, valued at USD 6.80 billion.
- The Small Business Accounting Software Market is projected to grow at a 6.92% CAGR from 2025 to 2035. North America is the largest market for small business accounting software, holding approximately 45% of the global market share.
- Intuit is also expanding into the mid-market segment, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of USD 89 billion globally. This is larger than the combined TAM for small businesses (USD 52 billion) and self-employed individuals (USD 44 billion).
Consumer Segment (TurboTax)
- Intuit's TurboTax holds an estimated 90% market share in the consumer tax preparation segment in the U.S.
- The global tax preparation software market was valued at USD 17.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 43 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.2% from 2025 to 2034.
- The global tax management software market size was valued at USD 20.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 56.02 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 11.80%. North America dominated this global market with a 34.70% share in 2025.
- The U.S. tax management software market is predicted to grow significantly, reaching an estimated value of USD 9.51 billion by 2032.
- Another estimate for the global tax software market size was USD 23.97 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 69.3 billion by 2035, with an 11.2% CAGR from 2026-2035. North America is projected to account for a 33% revenue share by 2035.
Credit Karma Segment
- Intuit's acquisition of Credit Karma in 2020 was noted to roughly double Intuit's total addressable market (TAM) in personal finance products from USD 29 billion to USD 57 billion globally.
- The global Credit Scoring Market size was valued at USD 17.47 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.58% from 2025 to 2032, reaching nearly USD 55.64 billion by 2032.
- North America dominated the global credit scoring market in 2024. Within North America, the U.S. holds approximately 70% of the market share for credit scoring.
- A related market, the Credit Risk Assessment Market, was valued at USD 8.36 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 31.46 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market with a 36% share in 2024.
ProConnect Segment
- This segment targets accounting professionals with tax preparation software. The broader tax software market, which includes professional solutions, was valued at USD 20.95 billion in 2022 globally and is expected to reach USD 46.90 billion by 2030.
- Accounting and tax advisory firms are expected to record a fast 13.78% CAGR through 2030 within the tax software market.
- The global tax management software market, encompassing professional tools, was valued at USD 20.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 56.02 billion by 2034. North America held a 34.70% share of this market in 2025.
- Intuit's ProTax Group, specifically serving professionals, saw its revenue grow by 6.8% to reach USD 599 million in 2024. The ProTax Group is anticipated to grow by 3% to 4% in fiscal year 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Intuit (INTU) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- AI-Driven Expert Platform and "Done-for-You" Experiences: Intuit is heavily investing in combining artificial intelligence (AI) with human expertise to create "done-for-you" experiences across its product ecosystem, including TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma. This strategy aims to automate tasks, simplify financial management, and enhance customer engagement through features like AI agents and virtual expert platforms, ultimately driving adoption and increasing efficiency.
- Mid-Market Expansion: A significant driver of growth is Intuit's focus on expanding into the mid-market segment with solutions like QuickBooks Online Advanced and the Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES). This targets businesses with annual revenues ranging from $2.5 million to over $100 million, an underserved market with substantial opportunities. The company is developing industry-specific AI-native ERP solutions and an all-in-one platform to consolidate tech stacks and automate workflows for these larger businesses, leading to strong revenue and customer growth in this segment.
- Growth in Online Ecosystem Services: Intuit is focused on increasing the adoption and attach rates of its online services, particularly payments, payroll, and other money offerings within its QuickBooks Online ecosystem. By deepening its platform capabilities and encouraging customers to utilize more integrated tools, Intuit aims to increase revenue per customer and enhance the stickiness of its offerings.
- Customer Growth and Increased Penetration in Core Services: Intuit plans to expand its presence in its core verticals, including tax, accounting, personal finance, and marketing, by attracting new customers and increasing penetration among existing and underserved segments. This involves reaching more small businesses, self-employed individuals, and gig workers who do not currently use professional financial software. Growth in segments like TurboTax Live, Credit Karma, and QuickBooks Online Accounting, supported by customer acquisition and effective pricing strategies, is integral to this driver.
- International Expansion: Intuit is pursuing international growth by replicating its successful domestic strategies in key markets such as Canada, the U.K., and Australia. This involves initially offering core accounting tools and then layering on additional services like tax, payroll, and marketing as customer trust and adoption grow within these regions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Intuit repurchased $2.8 billion of stock during fiscal year 2025.
- The company repurchased $2.0 billion in stock in both fiscal year 2024 and fiscal year 2023.
- As of February 26, 2026, Intuit has $3.5 billion remaining on its share repurchase authorization.
Share Issuance
- Stock-based compensation has historically offset share repurchases, contributing to the lack of a significant reduction in the total share count over time.
- Intuit recognized excess tax benefits on share-based compensation of $143 million in fiscal year 2025 and $183 million in fiscal year 2024.
- The weighted average shares outstanding increased in fiscal year 2022, partly due to shares issued as part of the Mailchimp acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- Intuit completed the acquisition of Relevvo in June 2025, a company specializing in AI and cloud-based account-based marketing solutions.
- Other recent acquisitions include Deserve and GoCo.io in April 2025, and Zendrive in June 2024.
- A significant acquisition was Mailchimp in September 2021 for $12 billion, which continued to impact financials and share count in the subsequent fiscal years.
Capital Expenditures
- Intuit's annual capital expenditures were $124 million in fiscal year 2025, $250 million in fiscal year 2024, and $260 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The trailing twelve months (TTM) annual capital expenditures as of March 11, 2026, amounted to $144 million.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | INTU | Intuit | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.4% | 2.4% | -10.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 170.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 98.5 |
| Rev LTM | 20,668 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,512 |
| FCF LTM | 3,101 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,906 |
| CFO LTM | 5,862 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,199 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 98.5 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 23.5 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -28.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -38.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -43.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Business Solutions | 9,533 | 8,038 | 6,460 | 4,688 | 4,050 |
| Consumer | 4,445 | 4,135 | 3,915 | 3,563 | 3,136 |
| Credit Karma | 1,708 | 1,634 | 1,805 | 865 | |
| ProTax | 599 | 561 | 546 | 517 | 493 |
| Total | 16,285 | 14,368 | 12,726 | 9,633 | 7,679 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Business Solutions | 7,157 | 4,581 | 3,499 | 2,590 | 2,091 |
| Consumer | 3,493 | 2,875 | 2,483 | 2,237 | 2,063 |
| ProTax | 520 | 455 | 383 | 372 | 346 |
| Credit Karma | 414 | 428 | 531 | 182 | |
| Amortization of acquired technology | -146 | -163 | -140 | -50 | -22 |
| Restructuring | -223 | 0 | |||
| Amortization of other acquired intangible assets | -483 | -483 | -416 | -146 | -6 |
| Share-based compensation expense | -1,915 | -1,712 | -1,308 | -753 | -435 |
| Other corporate expenses | -5,187 | -2,840 | -2,461 | -1,932 | -1,861 |
| Total | 3,630 | 3,141 | 2,571 | 2,500 | 2,176 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $416.44 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 116.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/22/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -48.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $451.33 | $631.48 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.7% | -34.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.1% | 36.1% |
| Downside Capture | 1.47 | 0.92 |
| Upside Capture | 22.33 | 70.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 18.6% | 44.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.62 | 1.58 | 1.06 | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Up Beta | 2.69 | 2.31 | 1.44 | 1.09 | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| Down Beta | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.72 | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | 28% | -19% | 58% | 40% | 65% | 136% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 13 | 25 | 54 | 124 | 385 |
| Down Capture | 362% | 354% | 293% | 180% | 120% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 28 | 36 | 70 | 126 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | -31.9% | 36.1% | -1.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.4% | 26.8% | 0.73 | 43.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | -6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 19.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | 2.3% | 35.0% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 15.4% | 24.6% | 0.56 | 66.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 65.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 45.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 27.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | 16.0% | 32.5% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.8% | 24.3% | 0.79 | 72.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 70.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 50.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 19.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | 3.7% | 18.3% | 5.6% |
| 11/20/2025 | 4.0% | -0.9% | 5.8% |
| 8/21/2025 | -5.0% | -4.2% | 0.6% |
| 5/22/2025 | 8.1% | 13.1% | 14.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 12.6% | 7.6% | 10.7% |
| 11/21/2024 | -5.7% | -5.4% | -6.0% |
| 11/28/2023 | 2.2% | 1.2% | 11.1% |
| 8/24/2023 | 4.1% | 8.7% | 2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -3.4% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 18.3% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -8.7% | -13.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 02/26/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/02/2022 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aujla, Sandeep | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 629.46 | 1,335 | 840,097 | 337,234 | Form |
| 2 | Cook, Scott D | Trust | Sell | 1022026 | 668.02 | 1,402 | 936,564 | 3,786,458,940 | Form | |
| 3 | Cook, Scott D | Trust | Sell | 12312025 | 671.56 | 75,000 | 50,367,047 | 3,807,469,390 | Form | |
| 4 | Cook, Scott D | Trust | Sell | 12302025 | 673.43 | 75,000 | 50,506,991 | 3,868,555,369 | Form | |
| 5 | Aujla, Sandeep | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 675.00 | 1,098 | 741,172 | 133,076 | Form |
INTU Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment case presents a nearly symmetrical raw risk/reward profile. However, after adjusting for the higher probability of the downside scenario (driven by a contested moat, decelerating growth, and high valuation), the probability-adjusted skew falls well below 1.0x. The current valuation appears to price in the bull case while leaving the stock vulnerable to a significant re-rating on any negative catalyst.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderIntuit's profile fits a mature version of a High-Beta Compounder. While its guided growth of 12-13% is moderate, its premium valuation (~30x P/E) is highly sensitive to shifts in that growth trajectory and broader market sentiment for software. The investment debate centers on growth durability and competitive moat, aligning with the core focus of this archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis rests on Intuit's ability to drive durable, high-margin revenue growth by increasing prices on its captive small business user base and cross-selling high-attach rate services like payroll and payments within the QuickBooks ecosystem.
- QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue growth accelerated to 25% in Q1 2026, driven by higher effective prices, customer growth, and mix-shift.
- Intuit's dominant market share (over 62% in U.S. accounting software) and high customer retention (84%) create a strong foundation for pricing power.
- The company has a proven track record of significant price increases, with the QuickBooks Online Plus plan increasing by over 64% in the last five years.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary structural risk is that advanced AI could automate and commoditize the core bookkeeping and tax preparation functions that justify Intuit's subscription fees, leading to long-term pricing pressure, churn, and a breakdown of the company's pricing power moat.
- The primary bear case noted in the data is 'AI-driven automation could eventually commoditize core accounting functions'.
- The market is already signaling concern, with the stock's recent pressure attributed to 'broader market concerns about AI disruption and a re-rating of software valuations'.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| QuickBooks Online Accounting Revenue Growth | > 20% YoY | This is the primary engine of the Alpha Driver thesis. Continued growth above 20% validates the pricing power and cross-sell strategy. A drop below this level signals maturation or competitive pressure. |
| TurboTax Live Customer Growth | Positive YoY Growth | As a key near-term risk centers on tax season performance, monitoring the uptake of this high-ARPU offering is critical. A decline would signal market share pressure or a weak tax season. |
| Operating Margin (Non-GAAP) | Expansion of >100bps YoY | A core tenet of the thesis is that Intuit is an efficiency engine. The company must continue to demonstrate operating leverage by expanding margins, proving it can translate revenue growth into disproportionate profitability. |
Pricing Power vs. External Threats
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe high switching costs and a strong moat will allow continued price increases and cross-selling, driving durable growth regardless of external noise.
CORE TENSION
Can Intuit's dominant ecosystem and pricing power overcome mounting regulatory pressure, tax season uncertainty, and valuation headwinds?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The upcoming Q2 earnings on Feb 26, 2026, where Q3 guidance will be provided, is the key catalyst. A weak TurboTax outlook would validate the bear case.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a convergence of risks: FTC litigation, tough tax season comps, and high valuation creating significant downside risk if guidance falters.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 26, 2026 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Q3 Guidance, especially TurboTax segment revenue growth and conversion rates. |
Q2 2026 | FTC Deceptive Advertising Litigation Trial Watch: News of a settlement, summary judgment, or specific trial outcomes. |
Ongoing | Macro Data: 10-Year Treasury Yield Watch: Yield consistently holding above 4.5%, signaling a 'higher for longer' rate environment. |
Next 6 months | Microsoft Dynamics SMB Bundle Announcement Watch: Announcement of a new, aggressively priced SMB software bundle or migration wins from QuickBooks. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-07-30 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: Shares reached a peak after a multi-month rally, reflecting strong business momentum before reversing course in the subsequent month. | Flat (0.1%) $803.38 -> $804.43 |
2025-08-21 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: The company reported Q4 results and provided initial guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting double-digit revenue growth. The negative stock reaction suggests guidance may have disappointed high investor expectations. | Plummeted 5.0% $695.20 -> $660.23 |
2025-09-18 | Annual Investor Day Details: Intuit hosted its annual investor day, outlining its long-term strategy and financial targets, with a focus on its AI-driven expert platform. | Modest 1.9% gain $660.25 -> $672.49 |
2025-11-20 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings Details: Intuit reported Q1 revenue and EPS that beat analyst estimates, driven by accelerating growth in the QuickBooks Online ecosystem. | Rose significantly by 4.0% $636.26 -> $661.93 |
2026-02-03 | Pre-Earnings Sell-Off Details: Stock plummeted on elevated volume, reflecting significant investor anxiety ahead of Q2 earnings and concerns over tough tax-season comparisons and sector-wide valuation pressure. | Crashed 10.9% $487.12 -> $434.09 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.0x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, expensive valuation, and decelerating growth guidance force a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
PTC
INDUSTRYUnlike Intuit, PTC's industrial software base is less exposed to consumer regulatory risk (FTC) and direct-to-consumer sentiment shifts during events like tax season.
VEEV
SECTORVeeva possesses a stronger, more specialized moat in the life sciences vertical, insulating it from Intuit's SMB-focused competitive and regulatory threats.
Intuit is evolving from a desktop software vendor into a unified, AI-driven financial technology platform, leveraging its massive user base in tax and accounting to cross-sell a growing ecosystem of high-margin services like payments, marketing, and personal finance.
Filter all news through the AI-driven 'expert platform' thesis. The key question is whether AI enhances pricing power and ecosystem attachment faster than it creates new, low-cost competitive threats.
QuickBooks Online subscriber growth >10% YoY; high-margin 'TurboTax Live' revenue growth >15%; Credit Karma revenue growth accelerating into double digits; evidence of successful Mailchimp cross-selling into the QuickBooks base; price increases justified by new AI features like Intuit Assist.
Slowing subscriber growth in QuickBooks Online; market share loss to competitors like Xero or H&R Block; regulatory action limiting cross-selling or targeting TurboTax 'Free File' marketing; signs that AI is commoditizing bookkeeping or tax prep, leading to price erosion; a sustained downturn in consumer credit impacting Credit Karma's revenue.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in desktop software sales — the strategic focus is the online ecosystem; short-term changes in consumer credit demand — the long-term integration thesis for Credit Karma is more important; individual competitor product announcements without evidence of market share shifts.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful monetization of the 'AI-driven expert platform' strategy, primarily through products like TurboTax Live and the new Intuit Assist. The company's ability to demonstrate that AI can drive higher Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC) and expand operating margins is the key catalyst. Management has guided for 12-13% revenue growth in FY2026 with operating margins expanding, setting a clear benchmark for the market.
Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks & Mailchimp Ecosystem)
$11.1B TTM (59% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
QuickBooks Online (cloud accounting software); QuickBooks Desktop; Mailchimp (email marketing platform); integrated payment processing and payroll services.
Who Pays & How
Over 10 million small and self-employed businesses pay recurring subscription fees. The primary lock-in is extremely high switching costs associated with migrating years of financial data and retraining on a new accounting platform.
Competition
Consumer (TurboTax & Personal Finance)
$4.9B TTM (26% of Total) · 78% MarginWhat It Is
TurboTax (DIY and expert-assisted tax preparation software); Mint (personal finance management).
Who Pays & How
Tens of millions of individuals pay per tax filing or subscribe to expert assistance (TurboTax Live). They pay for the convenience, brand trust, and ease of importing prior-year tax data.
Competition
Credit Karma (Financial Marketplace)
$2.3B TTM (12% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
A personal finance platform offering free credit scores, credit monitoring, and a marketplace for financial products.
Who Pays & How
Financial institutions (banks, credit card companies) pay Credit Karma a referral fee when a user signs up for a product (e.g., a credit card or personal loan) through the platform. Users do not pay for the service.
Competition
ProTax Group
$0.6B TTM (3% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Professional tax preparation software for accountants, including Lacerte, ProSeries, and ProConnect Tax Online.
Who Pays & How
Professional accounting firms pay for software to prepare and file tax returns for their clients. They pay for efficiency, accuracy, and integration with tax authorities.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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