Generac (GNRC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $145.05 | Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Generac (GNRC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $145.05Market Cap: $8.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Key risksGNRC key risks include [1] softness in its core residential segment due to fluctuating demand and fewer power outages, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% |
| Key risksGNRC key risks include [1] softness in its core residential segment due to fluctuating demand and fewer power outages, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GNRC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Generac's (GNRC) stock movement of -21.8% between August 31, 2025, and today:
1. Generac missed Q3 2025 earnings and revenue expectations and lowered its full-year outlook. The company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.83, missing analyst estimates of $2.25, and revenue of $1.11 billion, falling short of the $1.19 billion forecast. This led to a significant stock drop immediately following the announcement on October 29, 2025. Furthermore, Generac revised its full-year 2025 net sales growth guidance to be approximately flat compared to the prior year, a decrease from its previous expectation of 2% to 5% growth.
2. Weak residential product sales significantly impacted performance. Residential product sales declined by 13% to $627 million in Q3 2025. This downturn was attributed to a historically low number of power outage hours since 2015, suggesting reduced demand for home standby generators due to a lack of severe weather events.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GNRC Return | 126% | 55% | -71% | 28% | 20% | 0% | 54% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GNRC Win Rate | 83% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 67% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GNRC Max Drawdown | -21% | -1% | -74% | -18% | -15% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RRX, FELE, AIGO, SONC, ETN. See GNRC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GNRC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 120 days |
Compare to RRX, FELE, AIGO, SONC, ETN
In The Past
Generac's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 515.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GNRC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 02282025 | GNRC | Generac | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.1% | 14.1% | -25.1% |
| 02292024 | GNRC | Generac | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 37.8% | 21.0% | -2.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 02282025 | GNRC | Generac | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.1% | 14.1% | -25.1% |
| 02292024 | GNRC | Generac | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 37.8% | 21.0% | -2.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Generac
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 143.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| Rev LTM | 5,112 |
| Op Inc LTM | 575 |
| FCF LTM | 680 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 539 |
| CFO LTM | 812 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 660 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 34.2 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -4.9% | -17.6% | -21.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | 19.6% | 30.4% | 23.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 9.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 7.6% | 0.5% | -9.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | 0.2% | 11.1% | 14.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 0.1% | -10.2% | -1.2% |
| 5/1/2024 | -6.1% | 0.3% | 10.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -0.3% | -8.2% | -8.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 7.7% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -8.4% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 19.6% | 30.4% | 39.3% |
| Max Negative | -25.3% | -29.4% | -29.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |