GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.0 | Market Cap: $21.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.0Market Cap: $21.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GFS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS) stock moved by 14.1% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key developments:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results in Key Growth Segments. While GLOBALFOUNDRIES reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.34, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.39, its quarterly revenue of $1.69 billion surpassed analyst estimates of $1.68 billion. The company also highlighted its fourth consecutive quarter of strong year-over-year revenue growth in both its Automotive and Communications Infrastructure and Data Center end markets.
2. Significant Strategic Investment in European Manufacturing. On October 28, 2025, GLOBALFOUNDRIES announced plans for a substantial €1.1 billion investment to expand its Dresden, Germany manufacturing site. This "project SPRINT" is projected to increase production capacity to more than one million wafers per year by the end of 2028 and is expected to receive support from the German federal government and the State of Saxony under the framework of the European Chips Act, reinforcing the company's strategic global footprint.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GFS Return | - | - | -17% | 12% | -29% | -13% | -43% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 17% | -5% | 13% | -4% | 5% | 85% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GFS Win Rate | - | 50% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 32% | 42% | 35% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GFS Max Drawdown | - | - | -40% | -9% | -41% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -12% | -30% | -12% | -16% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GFS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
GLOBALFOUNDRIES's stock fell -50.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/25/2022. A -50.8% loss requires a 103.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GFS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.6% | -17.7% |
| 09302024 | GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.3% | -11.0% | -24.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.6% | -17.7% |
| 09302024 | GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.3% | -11.0% | -24.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GLOBALFOUNDRIES
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,543 |
| Op Inc LTM | 387 |
| FCF LTM | 77 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 65 |
| CFO LTM | 199 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 762 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.1 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 18.8 |
| P/CFO | 22.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4292024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5182023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4142023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8192022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6132022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11302021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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