Guess (GES)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $16.76 | Market Cap: $864.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Guess (GES)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $16.76Market Cap: $864.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 7.2% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 173% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Key risksGES key risks include [1] significant margin compression from escalating operational and freight costs and [2] persistent weakness in its Americas retail business due to declining customer traffic and soft consumer spending. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 173% |
| Key risksGES key risks include [1] significant margin compression from escalating operational and freight costs and [2] persistent weakness in its Americas retail business due to declining customer traffic and soft consumer spending. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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Here are five key points highlighting why Guess (GES) stock would have moved by 2.2% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 24, 2025: 1. Guess? (GES) reported stronger-than-expected Q3 2026 earnings on November 25, 2025.The company announced an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.35, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.25 by $0.10. This significant beat would likely drive positive investor sentiment and an upward stock movement. 2. Quarterly revenue for Q3 2026 also exceeded analyst expectations.
Guess? reported a 7.1% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $791.43 million, outperforming analysts' estimates of $767.93 million. Beating both top and bottom-line expectations often leads to stock appreciation. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.8% change in GES stock from 9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 152.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 9232025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.60 | 16.73 | 0.80% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3091.51 | 3144.42 | 1.71% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.01% | 2.56% | 152.28% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.29 | 10.74 | -60.65% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51.50 | 51.59 | -0.17% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.80% |
Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GES | 0.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.7% | 22.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.4% change in GES stock from 6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 438.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6242025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.59 | 16.73 | 44.40% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3051.13 | 3144.42 | 3.06% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.47% | 2.56% | 438.78% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.13 | 10.74 | -73.89% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51.38 | 51.59 | -0.41% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 44.39% |
Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GES | 44.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 11.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 13.5% | 6.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.5% change in GES stock from 12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 51.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12232024 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.12 | 16.73 | 27.49% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2954.07 | 3144.42 | 6.44% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.19% | 2.56% | -19.94% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.07 | 10.74 | 51.91% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50.80 | 51.59 | -1.55% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.46% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GES | 27.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | 44.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.3% | 41.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.6% change in GES stock from 12/24/2022 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 58.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12242022 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.40 | 16.73 | 8.64% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2669.50 | 3144.42 | 17.79% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.58% | 2.56% | -44.16% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.79 | 10.74 | 58.11% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53.89 | 51.59 | 4.28% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.45% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GES | -13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 40.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 38.2% | 39.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GES Return | 3% | 7% | -9% | 18% | -30% | 30% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 31% | -33% | 95% | 20% | 18% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GES Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 25% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 53% | 37% | 63% | 50% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GES Max Drawdown | -82% | -11% | -37% | -15% | -32% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -4% | -52% | -9% | -11% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PVH, LEVI, ANF, AEO, URBN. See GES Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GES | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 542 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 499.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 557 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 417.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TPR, RL, AEO, UA, TJX
In The Past
Guess's stock fell -53.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -53.1% loss requires a 113.4% gain to breakeven.
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Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company's clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel. It also grants licenses to design, manufacture, and distribute various products that complement its apparel lines, such as eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories, as well as to wholesale partners to operate and sell products through licensed retail stores. The company markets its products under the GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans, GUESS? and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO, and Gc brand names. It sells its products through direct-to-consumer, wholesale, and licensing distribution channels. As of January 29, 2022, the company directly operated 1,068 retail stores in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its partner's distributors operated an additional 563 retail stores worldwide. The company also offers its products through its retail websites. Guess?, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
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1. Like Calvin Klein or Tommy Hilfiger, but with a distinct, more overtly glamorous and fashion-forward American denim aesthetic.
2. Imagine Levi's evolving into a more fashion-oriented, global lifestyle brand with a glamorous, aspirational appeal.
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```html- Apparel: Fashion clothing for men, women, and children, including denim jeans, dresses, tops, and outerwear.
- Accessories: A diverse range of fashion items such as handbags, watches, eyewear, jewelry, and belts.
- Footwear: Shoes, boots, and sandals designed for men and women to complement their apparel collections.
- Fragrances: A collection of perfumes and colognes developed under license, reflecting the brand's distinctive style.
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Guess (symbol: GES) primarily sells its products directly to individuals through its extensive network of company-operated retail stores and e-commerce platforms. While the company does engage in wholesale distribution to other retailers, the majority of its revenue is derived from these direct-to-consumer channels.
Based on its primary sales to individuals, Guess serves the following categories of customers:
- Fashion-Forward Young Adults and Millennials: This core demographic is attracted to Guess's contemporary, often bold and trend-setting apparel, denim, and accessories. These customers seek stylish and aspirational fashion pieces that reflect a "sexy, adventurous, and glamorous" brand image, keeping up with current trends.
- Value-Oriented Shoppers: A significant portion of Guess's retail footprint includes outlet stores. This customer segment is drawn to the Guess brand but seeks more accessible price points, often purchasing previous season styles or made-for-outlet merchandise at a discount. They appreciate brand-name fashion but are more price-sensitive.
- Global Consumers with Regional Preferences: Guess has a strong international presence, particularly in Europe and Asia. While maintaining its core brand identity, Guess adapts its product offerings and marketing to cater to the diverse tastes, body types, and cultural preferences of consumers in different geographic regions, appealing to a broad international audience.
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Carlos Alberini, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Carlos Alberini has served as the Chief Executive Officer and Director of Guess?, Inc. since February 2019. Prior to rejoining Guess?, he was the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Lucky Brand from February 2014 to February 2019. He also served as the Co-Chief Executive Officer of Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc. from June 2010 to October 2012, and as its sole Chief Executive Officer from October 2012 to July 2013. Mr. Alberini previously held the role of President and Chief Operating Officer at Guess? from December 2000 to June 2010. His past experience also includes serving as Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Footstar Inc. from October 1996 to December 2000, and as Acting Chief Financial Officer and Vice President of Finance for the Melville Corporation from May 1995 to October 1996. He has been at the helm of 6 different companies throughout his career.
Alberto Toni, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Alberto Toni assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer of Guess?, Inc. in June 2025. Before joining Guess?, he held the position of Chief Financial Officer at Flos B&B Italia Group S.p.A. Additionally, Mr. Toni previously served as Chief Financial Officer for Bata SA and Deoleo SA.
Alex Yemenidjian, Chairman
Mr. Alex Yemenidjian has served as the Chairman of Guess?, Inc. since 2020. His prior roles include Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Oshidori International Development LTD from June 2020 to September 2022, and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Armenco Holdings, LLC from January 2005 to June 2020. He also served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Tropicana Las Vegas Hotel & Casino, Inc. from July 2009 to August 2015. Earlier in his career, he was Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. from April 1999 to April 2005, and President of MGM Resorts International, Inc. from 1995 to 1999.
Paul Marciano, Chief Creative Officer and Director
Mr. Paul Marciano has been the Chief Creative Officer and a Director of Guess?, Inc. since August 2015. He previously served as the Chairman of the company from August 2015 to June 2018, and as Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman from 2007 to 2015. Mr. Marciano also held the positions of Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer of Guess? from 1999 to 2007.
Fabrice Benarouche, Chief Accounting Officer; Senior Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations
Mr. Fabrice Benarouche has been the Senior Vice President of Finance, Investor Relations, and Chief Accounting Officer of Guess?, Inc. since April 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations from 2014 to April 2023. Earlier in his career, Mr. Benarouche worked as a Manager at Ineum Consulting (Deloitte Consulting) in France.
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Here are the key risks to Guess (symbol: GES):
- High Costs and Margin Compression: Guess is facing significant challenges from escalated operating costs, including increased selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, inflationary pressures on its cost structure, and higher freight costs due to global supply chain disruptions like the Red Sea crisis. These factors are contributing to margin contraction, impacting the company's profitability and overall financial performance.
- Weakness in Americas Retail Business and Evolving Consumer Preferences: The company is experiencing persistent weakness in its Americas retail segment, characterized by declining customer traffic and soft consumer spending. This has led to a fall in comparable sales across major categories and a contraction in operating margins for the Americas Retail segment. Heightened price sensitivity among consumers, driven by inflation and economic uncertainty, is also challenging Guess's premium pricing strategy.
- Unfavorable Currency Fluctuations: Guess's substantial international presence exposes the company to the risk of adverse currency fluctuations. Unfavorable foreign currency rates can negatively impact net revenues, operating income, and earnings, posing a challenge to the company's financial performance.
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One clear emerging threat to Guess (GES) is the continued and rapid expansion of ultra-fast fashion and direct-to-consumer e-commerce aggregators such as Shein and Temu. These platforms leverage highly agile supply chains, data-driven trend identification, and aggressive digital marketing to offer an unprecedented volume of new styles at extremely low price points, often mirroring current fashion trends almost instantly. This model fundamentally disrupts traditional seasonal fashion cycles and captures significant market share, particularly among younger demographics who prioritize novelty and affordability, directly competing with Guess's offerings.
Another emerging threat is a discernible shift in consumer preferences, particularly among fashion-conscious younger generations, towards a "quiet luxury" or unbranded aesthetic. Guess has historically built its brand identity around prominent logos and distinctive branding. However, a growing segment of the market is increasingly opting for minimalist, logo-free, or subtly branded items. If this trend continues to strengthen, it could erode the appeal of Guess's signature design elements and reduce demand for its core product categories.
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Guess?, Inc. (GES) operates within several addressable markets for its main products and services, including apparel, denim, footwear, and fashion accessories. The market sizes for these product categories vary by region.
Apparel
- Global: The global apparel market was valued at approximately $1.84 trillion in 2025. Other estimates placed the global apparel market size at USD 1.77 trillion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 2.26 trillion by 2030. Another report valued it at USD 1,749.67 billion in 2024, anticipating growth to USD 2,307.04 billion by 2032.
- U.S.: The United States apparel market is estimated at $365.70 billion.
- Europe: The apparel market in Europe was valued at USD 375.98 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 538.38 billion by 2033. Another source indicated the European apparel market was valued at EUR 483 billion in 2023. The EU's textile and apparel consumption reached €415 billion in 2022.
Denim (a significant part of apparel for Guess)
- Global: The global denim market was valued at USD 71.14 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 119.51 billion by 2032. Another report estimated the global denim market at USD 71.12 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 132.40 billion by 2035. Focusing specifically on denim jeans, the global market was estimated at USD 86.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 121.50 billion by 2030.
- North America: The North American denim market was valued at USD 29.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 39.0 billion by 2035. The North America denim jeans market accounted for 31.2% of the global revenue share in 2024.
- Europe: The European denim market was valued at USD 22.0 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 30.0 billion by 2035. Europe is anticipated to capture approximately 30% of the global denim market by 2030.
Footwear
- Global: The global footwear market was valued at USD 463.87 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 789.52 billion by 2032. Other estimates include a market size of USD 700.90 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 1100.38 billion by 2032.
- North America: The North America footwear market was valued at USD 64.27 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 98.63 billion by 2032. Another report indicated the North America footwear market was USD 97.00 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 122.87 billion by 2030.
- Europe: The footwear market in Europe was valued at USD 124.10 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 218.39 billion by 2033. Other data points show the European footwear market generated a revenue of USD 92,520.0 million in 2023.
Fashion Accessories (including handbags, watches, jewelry, eyewear)
- Global: The global fashion accessories market was estimated at USD 798.81 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1259.43 billion by 2030. Another source indicated a valuation of USD 1,079.60 billion in 2024, with expectations to grow to USD 1,876.72 billion by 2032.
- North America: The North America fashion accessories market generated a revenue of USD 283,005.2 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 440,802.5 million by 2030. Another estimate placed the North American market at USD 287.89 billion in 2024, with projections to reach US$ 554.28 billion by 2033.
- Europe: The Europe fashion accessories market generated a revenue of USD 236,676.8 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 375,311.8 million by 2030. Another report valued the European fashion accessories market at USD 665.58 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 873.65 billion by 2030.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Guess (GES)
Over the next 2-3 years, Guess (GES) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth, as outlined in recent company statements and analyst reports:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Brand Portfolio Expansion: The acquisition of rag & bone is a significant contributor to Guess's projected revenue growth. The full-year contribution of rag & bone, which has outperformed expectations with strong wholesale shipments, is expected to drive top-line growth. Furthermore, Guess is expanding its brand portfolio with initiatives like the launch of Guess Jeans, targeting the Gen Z market, and the expanded distribution of its athleisure product line. This diversification is aimed at reducing reliance on any single brand and opening new revenue streams.
- Global Footprint Expansion and Market Penetration: Guess is focused on extending its global reach by optimizing the productivity and profitability of its current operations and expanding into new geographic markets and distribution channels. Notably, the company is expanding the Guess brand in India with 22 new stores and has formed a new joint venture with the Chalhoub Group for expansion in the Middle East. The company's European business has been a strong performer, driving revenue growth through comparable store sales and wholesale operations.
- Enhanced Brand Relevance and Customer Centricity: Guess aims to boost brand relevance by optimizing its brand architecture to resonate with diverse consumer groups, including Heritage, Millennials, and Generation Z. This involves celebrity and influencer partnerships and collaborations to engage with a younger and broader audience. The company is also implementing a customer-centric approach, focusing on providing a seamless omni-channel experience through improved processes and platforms. Initiatives include a new customer loyalty program in Europe, which has shown significant revenue increases among members in pilot markets.
- Product Excellence and Optimized Offerings: A core part of Guess's strategy involves extending its product offerings to cater to different occasions and lifestyles, and better addressing local product needs. The company is undertaking a brand-elevation strategy, which includes enhancing product quality, visual merchandising, and the overall customer shopping experience both in stores and online. Efforts are also being made to streamline product assortments and optimize pricing.
- Operational Efficiencies and Business Optimization: Guess is committed to driving material operational improvements, particularly in areas such as logistics, sourcing, product development, production, and inventory management. The company is converting its U.S. distribution center operations to a third-party provider, which is expected to positively impact its cost structure. Strategic moves to streamline operations, including exiting unprofitable stores and optimizing its portfolios in China and North America, are designed to strengthen margins and unlock additional operating profit. Guess aims to unlock approximately $30 million in additional profits by fiscal year 2027 through business optimization.
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Share Repurchases
- In April 2024, Guess? Inc. authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $200 million of its common stock.
- As part of this new program, in April 2024, the company repurchased 326,429 shares for $10.3 million through a convertible bond exchange transaction.
- Through June 24, 2022, Guess? repurchased a total of 9.0 million shares for $186.7 million, including a $175.0 million accelerated share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- Guess? Inc. has not reported significant share issuances for capital raising purposes in the last 3-5 years, with fluctuations in outstanding shares primarily driven by share repurchases.
- The company issues shares related to outstanding Company Equity Awards, Convertible Notes, Convertible Hedge Call Options, and Convertible Hedge Warrants in the ordinary course of business.
Inbound Investments
- In August 2025, Guess? Inc. announced a definitive agreement for a strategic partnership with Authentic Brands Group LLC, where Authentic Brands Group will acquire 51% of substantially all Guess? intellectual property.
- This transaction is part of a take-private deal valued at approximately $1.4 billion, where shareholders will receive $16.75 per share in cash.
- The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal year 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Fiscal year 2025 revenue growth was primarily driven by Guess?'s 50% stake in the rag & bone acquisition.
- The company is making strategic investments in digital infrastructure, store optimization, and brand development, including the launch of GUESS JEANS.
- Capital expenditures in Q1 2025 included the acquisition of certain assets in Chile and Peru.
Capital Expenditures
- Guess?'s latest twelve months capital expenditures amounted to $87.998 million.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were $86.089 million, representing a 16.0% increase from the prior year.
- For Q1 2025, capital expenditures were approximately $20 million, primarily focused on store remodels, technology, and the acquisition of assets in Chile and Peru.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Guess Earnings Notes | ||
| Why ANF May Be Better Than Guess Stock | Actionable | |
| How Low Can Guess Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| GES Dip Buy Analysis | ||
| Guess Market Price | Market Price | |
| Guess (GES) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Guess (GES) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Guess (GES) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Guess (GES) Revenue Comparison | Financials | |
| Guess vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to GES. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.6% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.5% | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.9% | 3.9% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Guess
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| Rev LTM | 5,670 |
| Op Inc LTM | 614 |
| FCF LTM | 354 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 296 |
| CFO LTM | 572 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 534 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 11.8 |
| P/E | 12.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 9.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 26.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 1,476 | 1,381 | 1,298 | 942 | 1,248 |
| Americas Retail | 711 | 758 | 759 | 511 | 812 |
| Asia | 277 | 239 | 237 | 233 | 346 |
| Americas Wholesale | 200 | 206 | 201 | 118 | 186 |
| Licensing | 113 | 103 | 97 | 74 | 86 |
| Total | 2,777 | 2,687 | 2,592 | 1,877 | 2,678 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 172 | 160 | 175 | 67 | 134 |
| Licensing | 106 | 92 | 88 | 68 | 74 |
| Americas Retail | 57 | 87 | 125 | -16 | 22 |
| Americas Wholesale | 54 | 46 | 54 | 20 | 36 |
| Asia | 8 | -5 | -4 | -21 | -9 |
| Net gains on lease modifications | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Gain on sale of assets | 0 | ||||
| Asset impairment charges | -7 | -10 | -3 | -80 | -10 |
| Unallocated corporate overhead expense | -128 | -125 | -130 | -101 | -107 |
| Total | 263 | 248 | 305 | -60 | 141 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $16.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $16.76 | $13.63 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.2% | 22.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 6.7% | 68.0% |
| Downside Capture | 20.58 | 147.13 |
| Upside Capture | 20.69 | 149.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.6% | 44.6% |
GES Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.78 | 1.57 | 1.30 |
| Up Beta | -0.21 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 1.15 | 2.28 | 1.89 |
| Down Beta | -0.39 | -0.07 | -0.06 | 0.98 | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| Up Capture | 18% | 31% | 27% | 131% | 223% | 172% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 30 | 65 | 118 | 361 |
| Down Capture | 16% | 23% | 22% | -9% | 131% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 124 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of GES With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GES | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 29.1% | 7.8% | 18.8% | 72.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | -11.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 67.7% | 24.3% | 19.5% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 17.2% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.63 | 0.25 | 0.76 | 2.72 | 0.36 | 0.05 | -0.14 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 41.6% | 44.6% | 1.6% | 26.3% | 32.8% | 24.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of GES With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GES | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 4.7% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 35.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 52.6% | 23.8% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.28 | 0.38 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 46.9% | 46.1% | 3.4% | 16.2% | 37.6% | 19.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of GES With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GES | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 3.9% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 69.1% |
| Annualized Volatility | 71.1% | 22.0% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.32 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 42.2% | 38.1% | -3.3% | 19.2% | 34.8% | 16.8% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/25/2025 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 8/27/2025 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 4/3/2025 | 9.8% | -1.5% | 12.6% |
| 11/26/2024 | -5.4% | -1.6% | -19.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | 1.4% | -4.4% | 0.9% |
| 5/30/2024 | -0.5% | 0.1% | -14.9% |
| 3/20/2024 | 20.7% | 20.2% | 9.0% |
| 11/21/2023 | -12.3% | -7.3% | 1.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -7.3% | -17.3% |
| Max Positive | 124.5% | 108.9% | 104.9% |
| Max Negative | -20.0% | -16.9% | -28.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12052025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6112025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4112025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4012024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6022023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3242023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9022022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3242022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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