American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.16 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.16Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 9.2% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 139% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 9.2% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 139% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AEO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) experienced significant positive movement around the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025, driven by a strong turnaround and better-than-expected financial results.
Here are the key points for the stock's movement:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: American Eagle Outfitters reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.36 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst estimates. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 also significantly beat expectations, rising 29% year-over-year.
2. Robust Comparable Sales Growth, Led by Aerie: Total comparable sales increased by 4%, a substantial improvement from previous quarters. The Aerie brand was a major driver, with an impressive 11% comparable sales growth, while the American Eagle brand also returned to positive growth with a 1% increase.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AEO Return | 39% | 29% | -43% | 55% | -19% | 30% | 65% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 19% | -9% | 75% | 33% | 8% | 188% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AEO Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 25% | 67% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 43% | 33% | 55% | 67% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AEO Max Drawdown | -54% | -1% | -61% | -27% | -21% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -5% | -32% | -5% | -3% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: URBN, ANF, LB, TJX, ROST. See AEO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AEO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 289.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 453 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 383.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4530 days | 1480 days |
Compare to URBN, ANF, LB, TJX, ROST
In The Past
American Eagle Outfitters's stock fell -74.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/23/2021. A -74.3% loss requires a 289.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AEO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312025 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.0% | 85.2% | -18.9% |
| 03312020 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 76.0% | 272.2% | -15.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312025 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.0% | 85.2% | -18.9% |
| 03312020 | AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 76.0% | 272.2% | -15.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Eagle Outfitters
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.40 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 5,550 |
| Op Inc LTM | 650 |
| FCF LTM | 372 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 390 |
| CFO LTM | 577 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 578 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | 16.8 |
| P/CFO | 13.8 |
| Total Yield | 10.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 95.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 19.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Eagle | 3,362 | 3,263 | 3,556 | 2,734 | 3,480 |
| Aerie | 1,670 | 1,507 | 1,376 | 990 | 801 |
| Other | 489 | 469 | 82 | 35 | 28 |
| Intersegment Elimination | -259 | -249 | -3 | ||
| Total | 5,262 | 4,990 | 5,011 | 3,759 | 4,308 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Eagle | 600 | 541 | 796 | 93 | 484 |
| Aerie | 276 | 167 | 214 | 60 | 47 |
| Intersegment Elimination | 0 | 0 | |||
| Other | -36 | -57 | -16 | -425 | -298 |
| Impairment, restructuring and other charges | -153 | -22 | -12 | ||
| Unallocated corporate expenses | -464 | -383 | -391 | ||
| Total | 223 | 247 | 591 | -271 | 233 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9092025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3202025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3152024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5252023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3132023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3142022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spiegel Noel Joseph | 9092025 | Sell | 18.12 | 40,000 | 724,856 | Form | ||
| 1 | PAGE JANICE E | 9092025 | Sell | 18.04 | 26,869 | 484,717 | 1,630,509 | Form | |
| 2 | MCMILLAN CARY D | 9092025 | Sell | 18.11 | 9,002 | 163,071 | Form | ||
| 3 | Foyle Jennifer M. | Global Brand President-aerie | 9092025 | Sell | 18.14 | 54,950 | 996,793 | 4,010,881 | Form |
| 4 | MCMILLAN CARY D | 1172025 | Sell | 16.02 | 2,999 | 48,044 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
