GigaCloud Technology (GCT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.93 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
GigaCloud Technology (GCT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.93Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 18% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 122%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 103% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Key risksGCT key risks include [1] allegations of financial manipulation using undisclosed related party shell companies and [2] significant exposure to changes in US-China trade tariffs. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 122%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 103% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81% |
| Key risksGCT key risks include [1] allegations of financial manipulation using undisclosed related party shell companies and [2] significant exposure to changes in US-China trade tariffs. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GCT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
GigaCloud Technology (GCT) has experienced significant stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Here are key factors contributing to this movement:
1. Strong Q2 and Q3 2025 Earnings Performance: GigaCloud Technology reported robust financial results for both the second and third quarters of 2025, consistently beating analyst expectations. In Q2 2025, revenue increased by 3.8% year-over-year, and net income rose by 28%, with EPS at $0.91, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. For Q3 2025, total revenues increased by 9.7% year-over-year to $332.6 million, and the company reported $0.99 EPS, beating consensus estimates of $0.65. The global marketplace GMV also saw a substantial increase of 31% in Q2 and 20.7% for the 12 months ending September 30, 2025.
2. Strategic Acquisitions and European Expansion: GigaCloud Technology announced the planned acquisition of New Classic Home Furnishings in October 2025. Furthermore, the company's European expansion has been a significant growth driver, with European GMV soaring by 59% in Q2 2025. The opening of a new fulfillment center in Werne, Germany, bolsters its European logistics footprint and supports international expansion.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GCT Return | � | � | � | 222% | 1% | 116% | � |
| Peers Return | 64% | 11% | -39% | 70% | 15% | 47% | 221% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GCT Win Rate | � | � | 25% | 75% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 33% | 68% | 55% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GCT Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -14% | -12% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -10% | -47% | -6% | -17% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: W, AMZN, CHRW, EXPD, XPO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GCT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1024.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
GigaCloud Technology's stock fell -91.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/19/2022. A -91.1% loss requires a 1024.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GCT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 06302024 | GCT | GigaCloud Technology | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -42.2% | -35.0% | -61.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 06302024 | GCT | GigaCloud Technology | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -42.2% | -35.0% | -61.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GigaCloud Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 147.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.2 |
| Rev LTM | 11,757 |
| Op Inc LTM | 752 |
| FCF LTM | 546 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 467 |
| CFO LTM | 869 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 841 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.2 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 22.4 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 53.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 164.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 40.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 91.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GigaCloud 1P | 300 | 232 | 188 | 122 |
| Off-platform ecommerce | 205 | 118 | 128 | 93 |
| Last-mile delivery service | 106 | 63 | 34 | 26 |
| Warehousing service | 24 | 16 | 10 | 3 |
| Ocean transportation service | 20 | 38 | 36 | 13 |
| Packaging service | 17 | 8 | ||
| Platform commission | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Drayage service | 11 | |||
| Others | 10 | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| Total | 704 | 490 | 414 | 275 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2025 | 30.5% | 44.2% | 24.4% |
| 5/12/2025 | 11.4% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.0% | -5.6% | -8.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 17.3% | -12.7% | -2.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -9.5% | -9.3% | -27.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 17.3% | 30.3% | 21.2% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -9.3% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 30.5% | 44.2% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.5% | -12.7% | -27.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11302023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5242023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4242023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11302022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9302022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 8192022 | 424B4 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |