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GigaCloud Technology (GCT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.93 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

GigaCloud Technology (GCT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.93
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 18%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.0%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 122%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 103%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
  Key risks
GCT key risks include [1] allegations of financial manipulation using undisclosed related party shell companies and [2] significant exposure to changes in US-China trade tariffs.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 18%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.0%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 122%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 103%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81%
6 Key risks
GCT key risks include [1] allegations of financial manipulation using undisclosed related party shell companies and [2] significant exposure to changes in US-China trade tariffs.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GCT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

GigaCloud Technology (GCT) has experienced significant stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Here are key factors contributing to this movement:

1. Strong Q2 and Q3 2025 Earnings Performance: GigaCloud Technology reported robust financial results for both the second and third quarters of 2025, consistently beating analyst expectations. In Q2 2025, revenue increased by 3.8% year-over-year, and net income rose by 28%, with EPS at $0.91, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. For Q3 2025, total revenues increased by 9.7% year-over-year to $332.6 million, and the company reported $0.99 EPS, beating consensus estimates of $0.65. The global marketplace GMV also saw a substantial increase of 31% in Q2 and 20.7% for the 12 months ending September 30, 2025.

2. Strategic Acquisitions and European Expansion: GigaCloud Technology announced the planned acquisition of New Classic Home Furnishings in October 2025. Furthermore, the company's European expansion has been a significant growth driver, with European GMV soaring by 59% in Q2 2025. The opening of a new fulfillment center in Werne, Germany, bolsters its European logistics footprint and supports international expansion.

3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GCT Return222%1%116%
Peers Return64%11%-39%70%15%47%221%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GCT Win Rate25%75%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate60%55%33%68%55%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GCT Max Drawdown-14%-12%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-10%-47%-6%-17%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: W, AMZN, CHRW, EXPD, XPO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGCTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1024.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

GigaCloud Technology's stock fell -91.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/19/2022. A -91.1% loss requires a 1024.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About GigaCloud Technology (GCT)

Better Bets than GigaCloud Technology (GCT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GCT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
GCT_6302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302024GCTGigaCloud TechnologyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-42.2%-35.0%-61.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
GCT_6302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302024GCTGigaCloud TechnologyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-42.2%-35.0%-61.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for GigaCloud Technology

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GCTWAMZNCHRWEXPDXPOMedian
NameGigaClou.Wayfair Amazon.c.C.H. Rob.Expedito.XPO  
Mkt Price39.95102.47221.27160.10149.75145.10147.43
Mkt Cap1.513.32,353.619.220.417.118.2
Rev LTM1,22312,241670,03816,50511,2738,06711,757
Op Inc LTM133-5876,1907971,116706752
FCF LTM18828613,481807810232546
FCF 3Y Avg1408221,6777941,104-206467
CFO LTM195494121,137877862949869
CFO 3Y Avg14836596,9778751,152808841

Growth & Margins

GCTWAMZNCHRWEXPDXPOMedian
NameGigaClou.Wayfair Amazon.c.C.H. Rob.Expedito.XPO  
Rev Chg LTM10.2%3.4%10.9%-7.1%23.7%-0.3%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg41.6%-0.3%11.3%-13.4%-12.5%38.4%5.5%
Rev Chg Q9.7%8.1%13.3%-10.9%8.7%2.8%8.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.5%1.9%3.0%-3.0%1.9%0.7%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM10.9%-0.5%11.4%4.8%9.9%8.8%9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.0%-3.9%7.9%3.8%10.1%8.0%7.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%1.0%0.3%0.4%0.0%0.1%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM15.9%4.0%18.1%5.3%7.6%11.8%9.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.7%3.0%15.8%4.9%10.1%10.1%10.1%
FCF/Rev LTM15.4%2.3%2.0%4.9%7.2%2.9%3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg15.0%0.7%3.5%4.5%9.7%-2.6%4.0%

Valuation

GCTWAMZNCHRWEXPDXPOMedian
NameGigaClou.Wayfair Amazon.c.C.H. Rob.Expedito.XPO  
Mkt Cap1.513.32,353.619.220.417.118.2
P/S0.90.93.51.01.41.91.2
P/EBIT7.2-53.027.419.913.922.916.9
P/E8.2-35.733.126.518.345.922.4
P/CFO5.523.519.318.118.116.118.1
Total Yield12.2%-2.8%3.0%5.7%6.8%2.2%4.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%1.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg20.2%0.6%1.1%6.7%6.4%-1.8%3.7%
D/E0.40.30.10.10.00.30.2
Net D/E0.10.20.00.1-0.00.20.1

Returns

GCTWAMZNCHRWEXPDXPOMedian
NameGigaClou.Wayfair Amazon.c.C.H. Rob.Expedito.XPO  
1M Rtn33.6%3.0%-5.0%5.3%5.8%13.4%5.6%
3M Rtn34.5%18.7%-4.5%19.0%20.5%11.8%18.8%
6M Rtn121.9%108.7%4.1%72.9%33.1%20.3%53.0%
12M Rtn102.9%103.2%-4.3%50.3%30.8%-8.1%40.5%
3Y Rtn597.2%177.7%151.8%83.5%43.0%300.6%164.8%
1M Excs Rtn32.9%2.2%-5.7%4.6%5.1%12.7%4.8%
3M Excs Rtn35.8%14.6%-5.7%15.9%20.0%8.9%15.2%
6M Excs Rtn109.6%96.3%-8.3%60.5%20.7%7.9%40.6%
12M Excs Rtn82.0%84.9%-13.8%35.8%16.8%-18.2%26.3%
3Y Excs Rtn459.7%106.4%75.9%8.4%-31.4%222.3%91.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
GigaCloud 1P300232188122
Off-platform ecommerce20511812893
Last-mile delivery service106633426
Warehousing service2416103
Ocean transportation service20383613
Packaging service178  
Platform commission11754
Drayage service11   
Others1091314
Total704490414275


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,618,326
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-12.2%
Average Daily Volume716,212
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.66
Basic Shares Quantity37,539,214
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/7/202530.5%44.2%24.4%
5/12/202511.4%16.5%17.9%
3/3/2025-3.0%-5.6%-8.1%
11/7/202417.3%-12.7%-2.8%
8/6/2024-9.5%-9.3%-27.7%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive322
# Negative233
Median Positive17.3%30.3%21.2%
Median Negative-6.3%-9.3%-8.1%
Max Positive30.5%44.2%24.4%
Max Negative-9.5%-12.7%-27.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023327202410-K 12/31/2023
9302023113020236-K 9/30/2023
630202381520236-K 6/30/2023
331202352420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022424202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022113020226-K 9/30/2022
630202293020226-K 6/30/2022
123120218192022424B4 12/31/2021