GigaCloud Technology (GCT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.01 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
GigaCloud Technology (GCT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.01Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 18% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 112% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Future of Freight. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 112% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GCT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
GigaCloud Technology (GCT) experienced significant stock movement in late 2024 and early 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2024 Financial Performance
GigaCloud Technology Inc. exceeded analyst expectations with its third-quarter 2024 financial results. The company reported actual revenue of $0.30 billion, surpassing the estimated $0.28 billion by 8.49%. Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.98, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $0.67 by 45.62%. This positive earnings surprise led to a 17.25% one-day increase in the stock price following the announcement.
2. Impressive Full-Year 2024 Growth
The company achieved a landmark year in 2024, surpassing $1 billion in total revenues for the first time. Total revenues reached $1,161.0 million, marking a substantial 65.0% increase year-over-year. Net income also saw a significant rise of 33.7% year-over-year, reaching $125.8 million, while diluted EPS grew by 32.6% to $3.05.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GCT Return | - | - | - | 222% | 1% | 110% | 583% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -8% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GCT Win Rate | - | - | 25% | 75% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GCT Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -14% | -12% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GCT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1024.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
GigaCloud Technology's stock fell -91.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/19/2022. A -91.1% loss requires a 1024.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GCT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302024 | GCT | GigaCloud Technology | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -42.2% | -35.0% | -61.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302024 | GCT | GigaCloud Technology | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -42.2% | -35.0% | -61.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GigaCloud Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,360 |
| Op Inc LTM | 43 |
| FCF LTM | 249 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 204 |
| CFO LTM | 265 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 215 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -6.3 |
| P/E | 19.4 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11302023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5242023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4242023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11302022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9302022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 8192022 | 424B4 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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