Tearsheet

Forward Air (FWRD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $25.3 | Market Cap: $783.6 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Forward Air (FWRD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $25.3
Market Cap: $783.6 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 254%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 254%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FWRD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -16.1% movement in Forward Air (FWRD) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. Forward Air reported a significant miss on its Third Quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS), with a net loss of $0.52 per share, considerably worse than the estimated loss of $0.25 per share. Revenue for the quarter also fell short, coming in at $632 million against an estimated $640 million.

2. The company experienced a decline in key profitability metrics, with Q3 2025 operating income decreasing to $15 million from $23 million a year ago. Consolidated EBITDA also saw a 9.8% year-over-year decrease to $78 million from $86 million in the prior year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FWRD Return11%59%-13%-39%-49%-22%-63%
Peers Return8%25%-18%27%3%20%75%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FWRD Win Rate58%42%25%33%42%30% 
Peers Win Rate50%58%42%63%53%64% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FWRD Max Drawdown-42%-7%-29%-40%-81%-67% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-9%-28%-5%-17%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EXPD, CHRW, BCO, HUBG, RLGT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFWRDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven687 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-64.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven178.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1457 days1480 days

Compare to EXPD, CHRW, BCO, HUBG, RLGT


In The Past

Forward Air's stock fell -49.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -49.7% loss requires a 98.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Forward Air (FWRD)

Better Bets than Forward Air (FWRD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FWRD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Forward Air

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FWRDEXPDCHRWBCOHUBGRLGTMedian
NameForward .Expedito.C.H. Rob.Brink's Hub Radiant . 
Mkt Price25.20148.09159.54118.3039.916.4579.10
Mkt Cap0.820.219.15.02.40.33.7
Rev LTM2,49711,27316,5055,1463,7299034,438
Op Inc LTM361,11679750614219324
FCF LTM158108074181138266
FCF 3Y Avg441,10479434719736272
CFO LTM4386287763616013398
CFO 3Y Avg781,15287555829543426

Growth & Margins

FWRDEXPDCHRWBCOHUBGRLGTMedian
NameForward .Expedito.C.H. Rob.Brink's Hub Radiant . 
Rev Chg LTM14.5%23.7%-7.1%3.1%-5.8%12.5%7.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.0%-12.5%-13.4%5.1%-11.0%-13.1%-11.8%
Rev Chg Q-3.7%8.7%-10.9%6.1%-5.3%7.1%1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.0%1.9%-3.0%1.5%-1.4%1.6%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM1.4%9.9%4.8%9.8%3.8%2.1%4.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.6%10.1%3.8%9.9%4.5%1.9%4.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%0.0%0.4%0.5%0.2%-0.3%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM1.7%7.6%5.3%12.4%4.3%1.5%4.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.2%10.1%4.9%11.2%7.1%4.2%6.6%
FCF/Rev LTM0.6%7.2%4.9%8.1%3.0%0.9%4.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.2%9.7%4.5%7.0%4.8%3.4%4.6%

Valuation

FWRDEXPDCHRWBCOHUBGRLGTMedian
NameForward .Expedito.C.H. Rob.Brink's Hub Radiant . 
Mkt Cap0.820.219.15.02.40.33.7
P/S0.31.41.01.00.60.30.8
P/EBIT7.013.919.99.213.812.713.3
P/E-6.918.326.528.819.716.619.0
P/CFO18.318.118.17.712.921.618.1
Total Yield-14.6%6.8%5.7%3.5%6.5%6.0%5.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.3%1.9%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%6.4%6.7%8.2%8.0%11.4%7.4%
D/E2.70.00.10.90.20.30.3
Net D/E2.5-0.00.10.60.20.20.2

Returns

FWRDEXPDCHRWBCOHUBGRLGTMedian
NameForward .Expedito.C.H. Rob.Brink's Hub Radiant . 
1M Rtn39.9%21.6%4.9%7.0%12.4%7.5%10.0%
3M Rtn-16.0%23.6%24.5%5.3%8.1%2.4%6.7%
6M Rtn40.1%33.4%67.8%42.7%19.0%7.1%36.8%
12M Rtn-26.7%23.8%51.8%25.9%-21.5%-12.1%5.8%
3Y Rtn-77.2%32.9%77.2%106.2%-1.3%19.0%25.9%
1M Excs Rtn40.0%21.6%4.9%7.0%12.5%7.5%10.0%
3M Excs Rtn-22.4%17.0%20.1%-1.1%1.9%-5.7%0.4%
6M Excs Rtn25.4%18.7%53.1%28.0%4.2%-7.6%22.0%
12M Excs Rtn-44.9%10.4%41.2%10.1%-35.3%-27.3%-8.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-149.6%-34.5%3.7%32.4%-73.8%-53.6%-44.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate2,0482039148 
Expedited Freight661683778905718
Intermodal270322249222207
Omni Logistics0    
Eliminations-0-0   
Eliminations & Other  -0-201-25
Current assets held for sale    15
Noncurrent assets held for sale    77
Total2,9801,2081,118973991


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,161,184
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.4%
Average Daily Volume879,595
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.73
Basic Shares Quantity30,972,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024324202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021