Tearsheet

Forward Air (FWRD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $25.24 | Market Cap: $781.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Forward Air (FWRD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $25.24
Market Cap: $781.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 254%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
3   Key risks
FWRD key risks include [1] significant debt, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 254%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19%
7 Key risks
FWRD key risks include [1] significant debt, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FWRD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Estimates. Forward Air reported a Q3 2025 loss of $0.52 per share, which significantly missed analysts' consensus estimates of a loss of $0.13 per share. This represented an earnings surprise of -300.00%.

2. Revenue Miss and Year-over-Year Decline. The company's revenue for Q3 2025 was $631.76 million, falling short of analysts' expectations of $645.45 million. This also marked a 3.7% decrease in revenue compared to the same period last year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FWRD Return11%59%-13%-39%-49%-20%-62%
Peers Return53%82%-27%81%3%-8%252%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FWRD Win Rate58%42%25%33%42%42% 
Peers Win Rate63%70%40%68%50%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FWRD Max Drawdown-42%-7%-29%-40%-81%-67% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-4%-40%-6%-16%-35% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XPO, ODFL, SAIA, ARCB, HUBG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFWRDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven687 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-64.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven178.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,457 days1,480 days

Compare to EXPD, CHRW, BCO, HUBG, RLGT


In The Past

Forward Air's stock fell -49.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -49.7% loss requires a 98.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Forward Air (FWRD)

Better Bets than Forward Air (FWRD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FWRD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Forward Air

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FWRDXPOODFLSAIAARCBHUBGMedian
NameForward .XPO Old Domi.Saia ArcBest Hub  
Mkt Price25.24145.10155.73328.0079.5243.32112.31
Mkt Cap0.817.132.78.81.82.65.7
Rev LTM2,4978,0675,5753,2334,0393,7293,884
Op Inc LTM367061,391390111142266
FCF LTM15232921-146611390
FCF 3Y Avg44-206827-978319764
CFO LTM439491,461622241160432
CFO 3Y Avg788081,550583304295443

Growth & Margins

FWRDXPOODFLSAIAARCBHUBGMedian
NameForward .XPO Old Domi.Saia ArcBest Hub  
Rev Chg LTM14.5%-0.3%-5.9%2.0%-5.3%-5.8%-2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.0%38.4%-3.3%5.7%-5.8%-11.0%1.2%
Rev Chg Q-3.7%2.8%-4.3%-0.3%-1.4%-5.3%-2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.0%0.7%-1.1%-0.1%-0.4%-1.4%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM1.4%8.8%24.9%12.1%2.7%3.8%6.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.6%8.0%26.9%14.5%3.8%4.5%6.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%0.1%-0.4%-0.2%-0.1%0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM1.7%11.8%26.2%19.2%6.0%4.3%8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.2%10.1%26.8%19.0%7.1%7.1%8.6%
FCF/Rev LTM0.6%2.9%16.5%-0.4%1.6%3.0%2.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.2%-2.6%14.3%-2.9%1.9%4.8%3.1%

Valuation

FWRDXPOODFLSAIAARCBHUBGMedian
NameForward .XPO Old Domi.Saia ArcBest Hub  
Mkt Cap0.817.132.78.81.82.65.7
P/S0.31.95.32.50.40.61.2
P/EBIT7.022.921.220.511.113.817.1
P/E-6.945.927.928.216.319.723.8
P/CFO18.316.120.212.96.612.914.5
Total Yield-14.6%2.2%4.4%3.5%6.8%6.5%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.7%1.5%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%-1.8%2.2%-0.8%3.8%8.0%2.0%
D/E2.70.30.00.00.30.20.3
Net D/E2.50.20.00.00.20.20.2

Returns

FWRDXPOODFLSAIAARCBHUBGMedian
NameForward .XPO Old Domi.Saia ArcBest Hub  
1M Rtn20.1%13.4%20.1%25.0%27.2%21.7%20.9%
3M Rtn-5.6%11.8%10.0%6.4%13.7%18.1%10.9%
6M Rtn14.1%20.3%0.2%25.9%17.0%33.5%18.6%
12M Rtn-21.3%-8.1%-21.2%-38.4%-24.5%-8.6%-21.3%
3Y Rtn-75.7%300.6%7.4%43.1%8.3%9.8%9.0%
1M Excs Rtn19.4%12.7%19.4%24.3%26.4%21.0%20.2%
3M Excs Rtn-7.3%8.9%8.2%2.8%10.3%15.7%8.6%
6M Excs Rtn1.7%7.9%-12.2%13.5%4.6%21.1%6.3%
12M Excs Rtn-34.2%-18.2%-32.9%-49.0%-37.3%-21.7%-33.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-144.7%222.3%-63.5%-30.3%-66.3%-58.1%-60.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate2,0482039148 
Expedited Freight661683778905718
Intermodal270322249222207
Omni Logistics0    
Eliminations-0-0   
Eliminations & Other  -0-201-25
Current assets held for sale    15
Noncurrent assets held for sale    77
Total2,9801,2081,118973991


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,268,806
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.6%
Average Daily Volume551,404
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.74
Basic Shares Quantity30,972,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/202518.1%26.5%44.3%
8/11/20251.9%-0.9%3.8%
4/9/202531.9%39.1%64.5%
1/6/2025-2.5%3.0%-5.2%
8/7/202421.1%11.7%42.0%
5/9/2024-22.1%-33.0%-3.9%
2/29/2024-13.7%-15.7%-22.1%
10/30/2023-9.3%-5.7%-10.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91213
# Negative141110
Median Positive4.2%7.7%7.7%
Median Negative-5.8%-7.5%-8.8%
Max Positive31.9%39.1%64.5%
Max Negative-22.1%-33.0%-40.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024324202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021