Spotify Technology (SPOT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $553.41 | Market Cap: $114.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Spotify Technology (SPOT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $553.41Market Cap: $114.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 83x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 102x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 83x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 102x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SPOT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Spotify Technology (SPOT) stock moved by -18.3% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Spotify's Q3 2025 Earnings Report included sluggish North American subscriber additions and a decline in advertising revenue. Although the company reported solid user growth, these specific areas of underperformance contributed to investor concerns.
2. Multiple analyst downgrades and reduced price targets followed the Q3 earnings release. For instance, Goldman Sachs issued a neutral rating and a reduced target price, and Guggenheim lowered its target from $850 to $800. Barclays also adjusted its price target downward from $750 to $700.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SPOT Return | 110% | -26% | -66% | 138% | 138% | 29% | 286% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 9% | -16% | 5% | 9% | 34% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SPOT Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 17% | 83% | 83% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 37% | 28% | 32% | 43% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SPOT Max Drawdown | -21% | -35% | -70% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -9% | -18% | -9% | -22% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WBD, FOXA, FWONA, SIRI, STUB. See SPOT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SPOT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 413.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 120 days |
Compare to WBD, FOXA, FWONA, SIRI, STUB
In The Past
Spotify Technology's stock fell -80.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -80.5% loss requires a 413.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SPOT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Spotify Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 29.7 |
| Rev LTM | 16,474 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,926 |
| FCF LTM | 2,665 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,640 |
| CFO LTM | 2,960 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,823 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 29.7 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 13.1 |
| P/E | 13.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 112.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 50.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
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