TKO (TKO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $211.62 | Market Cap: $17.3 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
TKO (TKO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $211.62Market Cap: $17.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 72x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 5.7% | Key risksTKO key risks include [1] challenges in integrating its core WWE and UFC assets and [2] a significant reliance on marquee talent. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Video Streaming, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 5.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Video Streaming, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 72x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% |
| Key risksTKO key risks include [1] challenges in integrating its core WWE and UFC assets and [2] a significant reliance on marquee talent. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TKO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
TKO Group Holdings (NYSE: TKO) experienced notable stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, reaching an all-time high of $212.58 on December 17, 2025. The stock price increased by 11.52% in the past month and showed a year-to-date return of 47.82%, reflecting strong investor confidence.
Key points explaining TKO's stock movement include:
1. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance and Strong Performance in Q3 2025.
TKO announced strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, with revenue of $1.120 billion and net income of $106.8 million. The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance for revenue to $4.69 billion - $4.72 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $1.57 billion - $1.58 billion, indicating robust operating performance, particularly from UFC and WWE.
2. Landmark Media Rights Deals.
TKO secured significant multi-year media rights agreements. On August 6, 2025, ESPN announced a five-year deal for WWE's premium live events in the U.S.. Additionally, on August 11, 2025, Paramount and TKO announced a seven-year media rights agreement making Paramount the exclusive home for all UFC events in the U.S. starting in 2026, with an average annual value of $1.1 billion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TKO Return | � | � | � | � | 74% | 50% | � |
| Peers Return | -10% | 20% | -22% | 13% | 33% | 47% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TKO Win Rate | � | � | � | 33% | 83% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 50% | 35% | 43% | 63% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TKO Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -7% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -12% | -30% | -4% | -11% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FWONA, MSGS, LYV, WBD, FOXA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TKO has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
Compare to
In The Past
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund's stock fell -47.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2021. A -47.2% loss requires a 89.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| TKO Earnings Notes | |||
| 11-Day Rally Sends TKO Stock Up 15% | Notification | ||
| TKO Stock Surges 14%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree | Notification | ||
| TKO Stock Surges 9.2%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | Notification | ||
| TKO Stock Surges 9.2%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | Notification | ||
| TKO Stock Surges 9.2%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | Notification | ||
| 7-Day Rally Sends TKO Stock Up 10% | Notification | ||
| Can TKO Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for TKO Stock with 23% Return (vs. 35% YTD) [8/13/2025] | Notification | ||
| How Does TKO Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | December 17th, 2025 | ||
| TKO Stock Surges 15%, With A 11-Day Winning Spree | December 9th, 2025 | ||
| TKO Stock Surges 14%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree | December 5th, 2025 | ||
| TKO Stock On Fire: Up 9.2% With 7-Day Winning Streak | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| 7-Day Rally Sends TKO Stock Up 9.2% | December 3rd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TKO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TKO
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 112.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.8 |
| Rev LTM | 10,257 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,108 |
| FCF LTM | 1,261 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 891 |
| CFO LTM | 1,762 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,266 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.8 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/EBIT | 23.4 |
| P/E | 28.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 96.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.3% | -3.0% | 9.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.3% | 22.9% | 24.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -5.5% | -4.4% | -3.3% |
| 2/26/2025 | -5.8% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.9% | -2.0% | 19.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.1% | 6.9% | 9.7% |
| 2/27/2024 | -3.9% | -6.6% | 0.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 7.7% | 9.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -4.4% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.8% | 22.9% | 24.7% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | -6.6% | -5.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6232023 | S-4/A 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8222023 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |