Fastly (FSLY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.28 | Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Fastly (FSLY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.28Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -137 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Video Streaming, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Video Streaming, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -137 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FSLY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results and Raised Full-Year Guidance
Fastly reported record third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.07, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.01. Quarterly revenue also grew by 15.3% year-over-year to $158.22 million, exceeding analyst expectations. The company further fueled investor confidence by raising its full-year 2025 guidance for revenue, profitability, and free cash flow.
2. Significant Growth in Security Services Segment
A key driver of Fastly's positive momentum was the robust performance of its security services segment, which experienced a 30% year-over-year growth in Q3 2025, accounting for a record 21% of total revenue. This growth was attributed to portfolio expansion and cross-sell initiatives, and Fastly also launched a new partner certification program to further strengthen customer security offerings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FSLY Return | 335% | -59% | -77% | 117% | -47% | 23% | -42% |
| Peers Return | 76% | 20% | -23% | 24% | 52% | 883% | 2951% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FSLY Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 8% | 67% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 37% | 26% | 53% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FSLY Max Drawdown | -45% | -60% | -79% | -1% | -68% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -9% | -29% | -22% | -17% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NET, VRSN, AKAM, BMR, BTTC. See FSLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FSLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1484.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 148 days |
Compare to NET, VRSN, AKAM, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Fastly's stock fell -93.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -93.7% loss requires a 1484.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Fastly Stock Surges 40% In A Single Month, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Fastly Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Fastly (FSLY) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fastly (FSLY) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fastly (FSLY) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fastly (FSLY) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fastly (FSLY) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fastly (FSLY) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fastly (FSLY) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| FSLY Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Where Does Fastly Stock Rank Among Competitors? | November 7th, 2025 | ||
| Buy or Sell Fastly Stock? | November 7th, 2025 | ||
| Fastly, Anaplan: Smaller Software Stocks Have Taken A Beating. Time To Buy? | February 22nd, 2022 | ||
| Mid-Cap SaaS Stocks Have Taken A Beating. Is There An Opportunity? | December 20th, 2021 | ||
| Instructure, Fastly: Fast Growing Mid-Cap SaaS Stocks To Watch | October 25th, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FSLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Fastly
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,627 |
| Op Inc LTM | -0 |
| FCF LTM | 464 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 450 |
| CFO LTM | 787 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 650 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.0 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| P/EBIT | 2.9 |
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/CFO | 20.8 |
| Total Yield | 1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 24.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 23.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |