Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.6%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 7.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.6%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 7.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.6%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.6%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FDX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FDX Return74%1%-32%49%13%-1%101%
Peers Return36%11%-25%60%22%15%151%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FDX Win Rate67%50%50%58%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%57%45%68%52%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FDX Max Drawdown-40%-15%-44%0%-7%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-10%-33%-9%-12%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, UPS, CHRW, XPO, BCO. See FDX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFDXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-49.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven372 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-71.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven252.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1682 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, UPS, CHRW, XPO, BCO


In The Past

FedEx's stock fell -54.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -54.7% loss requires a 120.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About FedEx (FDX)

Interactive Breakdown

FedEx Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than FedEx (FDX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FDX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for FedEx

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FDXAMZNUPSCHRWXPOBCOMedian
NameFedEx Amazon.c.United P.C.H. Rob.XPO Brink's  
Mkt Price274.05229.1194.76157.42140.85116.46149.13
Mkt Cap64.72,437.080.418.916.64.941.8
Rev LTM88,591670,03889,48316,5058,0675,14652,548
Op Inc LTM6,08476,1908,2187977065063,441
FCF LTM3,65413,4814,3968072324182,230
FCF 3Y Avg3,18721,6774,771794-2063471,991
CFO LTM7,565121,1378,4638779496364,257
CFO 3Y Avg8,10296,9779,6138758085584,488

Growth & Margins

FDXAMZNUPSCHRWXPOBCOMedian
NameFedEx Amazon.c.United P.C.H. Rob.XPO Brink's  
Rev Chg LTM1.1%10.9%-1.3%-7.1%-0.3%3.1%0.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.2%11.3%-3.9%-13.4%38.4%5.1%1.4%
Rev Chg Q3.1%13.3%-3.7%-10.9%2.8%6.1%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%3.0%-0.9%-3.0%0.7%1.5%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM6.9%11.4%9.2%4.8%8.8%9.8%9.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.7%7.9%9.5%3.8%8.0%9.9%7.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.3%-0.1%0.4%0.1%0.5%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM8.5%18.1%9.5%5.3%11.8%12.4%10.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%15.8%10.5%4.9%10.1%11.2%10.3%
FCF/Rev LTM4.1%2.0%4.9%4.9%2.9%8.1%4.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.6%3.5%5.2%4.5%-2.6%7.0%4.1%

Valuation

FDXAMZNUPSCHRWXPOBCOMedian
NameFedEx Amazon.c.United P.C.H. Rob.XPO Brink's  
Mkt Cap64.72,437.080.418.916.64.941.8
P/S0.63.50.81.01.91.01.0
P/EBIT8.527.49.019.922.99.214.5
P/E13.033.112.926.545.928.827.6
P/CFO7.119.38.418.116.17.712.2
Total Yield10.2%3.0%15.4%5.7%2.2%3.5%4.6%
Dividend Yield2.5%0.0%7.6%1.9%0.0%0.0%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%1.1%4.7%6.7%-1.8%8.2%5.0%
D/E0.70.10.40.10.30.90.3
Net D/E0.60.00.30.10.20.60.3

Returns

FDXAMZNUPSCHRWXPOBCOMedian
NameFedEx Amazon.c.United P.C.H. Rob.XPO Brink's  
1M Rtn8.8%-8.1%3.4%2.9%0.1%10.0%3.2%
3M Rtn22.4%-2.8%14.1%23.7%7.7%2.7%10.9%
6M Rtn28.1%10.2%1.4%66.7%20.7%40.4%24.4%
12M Rtn-1.0%5.0%-21.4%49.8%-9.2%23.7%2.0%
3Y Rtn65.8%151.7%-39.1%77.2%292.6%104.1%90.7%
1M Excs Rtn7.5%-9.4%2.1%1.7%-1.1%8.7%1.9%
3M Excs Rtn15.3%-7.2%7.6%19.0%1.8%-4.1%4.7%
6M Excs Rtn12.6%-5.3%-14.1%51.3%5.3%24.9%8.9%
12M Excs Rtn-18.9%-4.7%-37.8%38.4%-22.2%7.8%-11.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-8.6%74.6%-113.6%1.0%200.6%28.3%14.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Federal Express segment74,66375,88445,81442,07835,513
FedEx Freight segment9,42910,0849,5327,8337,102
Corporate, other and elimination3,6014,1874,6813,5203,847
FedEx Ground Segment  33,23230,49622,733
FedEx Services Segment  2533222
Total87,69390,15593,51283,95969,217


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Federal Express segment4,8194,1932,9222,810996
FedEx Freight segment1,8211,9361,6631,005580
Corporate, other and elimination-1,081-1,217-982-1,151-1,173
FedEx Ground Segment  2,6423,1932,014
FedEx Services Segment  00 
Total5,5594,9126,2455,8572,417


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Federal Express segment73,25985,12847,60446,35641,252
FedEx Freight segment11,61510,4168,9047,3716,434
Corporate, other and elimination2,133-8,401-11,548-8,723-6,134
FedEx Ground Segment  32,64529,13424,700
FedEx Services Segment  8,3898,6397,285
Total87,00787,14385,99482,77773,537


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,865,423
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.4%
Average Daily Volume1,892,793
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.57
Basic Shares Quantity236,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025918202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025721202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025320202510-Q 2/28/2025
113020241219202410-Q 11/30/2024
8312024919202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024715202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024321202410-Q 2/29/2024
113020231219202310-Q 11/30/2023
8312023920202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023717202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023316202310-Q 2/28/2023
113020221220202210-Q 11/30/2022
8312022922202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022718202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022317202210-Q 2/28/2022
113020211216202110-Q 11/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0DIETRICH JOHN WEVP CHIEF FINANCIAL OFF1072025Buy273.981,000273,9802,484,177Form
1LANE AMY B 12262024Buy276.0633391,92991,929Form