Digimarc (DMRC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.9 | Market Cap: $171.5 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Digimarc (DMRC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.9Market Cap: $171.5 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -112% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.28 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -54% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% | ||
| Key risksDMRC key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate threatening its financial runway, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.28 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -112% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% |
| Key risksDMRC key risks include [1] a high cash burn rate threatening its financial runway, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DMRC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, Digimarc (DMRC) experienced a stock decline of 8.3% due to several factors, primarily related to its financial performance and strategic challenges highlighted in its Q2 and Q3 2025 earnings reports.
1. Revenue and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Decline in Q2 and Q3 2025. Digimarc reported a significant decrease in total revenue and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for both the second and third quarters of 2025. In Q2 2025, total revenue decreased to $8.0 million from $10.4 million in Q2 2024, with ARR declining to $15.9 million from $23.9 million in Q2 2024. This was largely due to the expiration of two significant commercial contracts, including a $5.8 million retailer contract in 2024 and a $3.5 million DRS contract in 2025. The trend continued in Q3 2025, with total revenue decreasing to $7.6 million compared to $9.4 million for Q3 2024, and ARR falling to $15.8 million from $18.7 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to the expiration of a commercial contract that contributed $0.8 million in subscription revenue in Q3 2024.
2. Missed Analyst Revenue and Earnings Estimates. Digimarc's financial results for Q3 2025 fell short of analyst expectations. The company reported total revenue of $7.6 million, missing the estimated $7.75 million, and an earnings per share (EPS) loss of $0.38, which was below the estimated loss of $0.23 per share. The stock also reacted negatively to the Q2 2025 results, with shares closing down 5.08% on August 14, 2025, reflecting investor concerns over declining revenue.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DMRC Return | 41% | -16% | -53% | 95% | 4% | -78% | -76% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 49% | -28% | -0% | 30% | -18% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DMRC Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 60% | 31% | 48% | 54% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DMRC Max Drawdown | -70% | -49% | -67% | -11% | -41% | -82% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -53% | -26% | -19% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AVY, ZBRA, PI, VRME. See DMRC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DMRC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 312.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 260.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 186.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 420 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to UIS, BMR, BTTC, CCC, FUSE
In The Past
Digimarc's stock fell -75.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -75.7% loss requires a 312.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DMRC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Digimarc
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 166.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 360 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1 |
| FCF LTM | 41 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 21 |
| CFO LTM | 56 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 39 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 3.5 |
| P/E | -2.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.8 |
| Total Yield | -0.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product digitization solutions | 35 | ||||
| Service | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | |
| Subscription | 15 | 12 | 10 | 10 | |
| Total | 35 | 30 | 27 | 24 | 23 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product digitization solutions | -48 | ||||
| Total | -48 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product digitization solutions | -46 | ||||
| Total | -46 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 4.2% | -11.0% | -15.0% |
| 8/14/2025 | -20.1% | -25.4% | -9.7% |
| 2/26/2025 | -43.1% | -40.5% | -48.7% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.8% | 4.2% | 17.9% |
| 8/13/2024 | -16.3% | -5.7% | -0.4% |
| 2/28/2024 | -12.3% | -19.6% | -32.0% |
| 11/6/2023 | 2.3% | 11.2% | 19.8% |
| 8/2/2023 | 22.1% | 17.9% | 11.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 20.4% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| Median Negative | -12.3% | -15.3% | -16.4% |
| Max Positive | 32.2% | 54.9% | 57.9% |
| Max Negative | -43.1% | -40.5% | -48.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | null 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |