Dayforce (DAY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.23 | Market Cap: $11.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Dayforce (DAY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.23Market Cap: $11.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Work, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Key risksDAY key risks include [1] intense competition impacting win rates and pricing power, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Work, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
| Key risksDAY key risks include [1] intense competition impacting win rates and pricing power, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DAY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Dayforce (DAY) stock moved by approximately -0.8% from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. The stock's price stabilized around the Thoma Bravo acquisition offer of $70.00 per share, leading to a slight market discount. The definitive agreement for affiliates of Thoma Bravo, L.P. to acquire Dayforce for $70.00 in cash per share was announced on August 20, 2025, causing an initial surge in the stock price. Following this, the stock price generally hovered below the $70 mark in the subsequent months, reflecting a common market practice where stocks trade at a slight discount to the acquisition price until the deal formally closes, accounting for time value and execution risks.
2. Dayforce's Q3 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) significantly missed analyst expectations. On October 29, 2025, Dayforce reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, with adjusted EPS coming in at $0.37, which was 33.2% lower than the analyst consensus estimate of $0.55. This underperformance in profitability likely contributed to negative sentiment and downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DAY Return | 57% | -2% | -39% | 5% | 8% | -5% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 41% | 23% | -19% | 5% | 13% | -17% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DAY Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 57% | 43% | 50% | 62% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DAY Max Drawdown | -42% | -24% | -58% | -12% | -28% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -16% | -33% | -21% | -16% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WDAY, ADP, PAYC, PCTY, PAYX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DAY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 195.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 120 days |
Compare to HSII, BBSI, CCRN, TTEC, ELCG
In The Past
Dayforce's stock fell -66.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -66.2% loss requires a 195.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DAY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dayforce
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 158.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,786 |
| Op Inc LTM | 713 |
| FCF LTM | 1,050 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,000 |
| CFO LTM | 1,272 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,189 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 20.0 |
| P/E | 28.2 |
| P/CFO | 23.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | 0.4% | -3.1% | 30.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | -6.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| 2/5/2025 | -8.0% | -9.0% | -23.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.3% | 18.1% | 22.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | 10.4% | -2.2% | 6.3% |
| 5/1/2024 | -6.0% | -3.6% | -17.9% |
| 2/7/2024 | -2.7% | -1.5% | -6.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -6.5% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 18.1% | 32.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.1% | -18.0% | -24.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Alkharrat Samer | EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | 11262025 | Sell | 69.00 | 3,232 | 223,008 | 7,914,438 | Form |
| 1 | Holdridge Stephen H. | President, COO | 11182025 | Sell | 68.87 | 2,000 | 137,740 | 12,314,920 | Form |
| 2 | PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 11052025 | Sell | 68.69 | 25,005 | 1,717,596 | 1,697,900,163 | Form | |
| 3 | PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ | 11032025 | Sell | 68.45 | 39,558 | 2,707,745 | 1,694,371,462 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |