Tearsheet

Dayforce (DAY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.23 | Market Cap: $11.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Dayforce (DAY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.23
Market Cap: $11.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Work, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  Key risks
DAY key risks include [1] intense competition impacting win rates and pricing power, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Future of Work, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
6 Key risks
DAY key risks include [1] intense competition impacting win rates and pricing power, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DAY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why Dayforce (DAY) stock moved by approximately -0.8% from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. The stock's price stabilized around the Thoma Bravo acquisition offer of $70.00 per share, leading to a slight market discount. The definitive agreement for affiliates of Thoma Bravo, L.P. to acquire Dayforce for $70.00 in cash per share was announced on August 20, 2025, causing an initial surge in the stock price. Following this, the stock price generally hovered below the $70 mark in the subsequent months, reflecting a common market practice where stocks trade at a slight discount to the acquisition price until the deal formally closes, accounting for time value and execution risks.

2. Dayforce's Q3 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) significantly missed analyst expectations. On October 29, 2025, Dayforce reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, with adjusted EPS coming in at $0.37, which was 33.2% lower than the analyst consensus estimate of $0.55. This underperformance in profitability likely contributed to negative sentiment and downward pressure on the stock.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DAY Return57%-2%-39%5%8%-5%2%
Peers Return41%23%-19%5%13%-17%37%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DAY Win Rate75%50%42%58%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate70%57%43%50%62%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DAY Max Drawdown-42%-24%-58%-12%-28%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-16%-33%-21%-16%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WDAY, ADP, PAYC, PCTY, PAYX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDAYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-66.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven195.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven63 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven44 days120 days

Compare to HSII, BBSI, CCRN, TTEC, ELCG


In The Past

Dayforce's stock fell -66.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -66.2% loss requires a 195.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dayforce (DAY)

Better Bets than Dayforce (DAY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DAY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dayforce

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DAYWDAYADPPAYCPCTYPAYXMedian
NameDayforce Workday Automati.Paycom S.PaylocityPaychex  
Mkt Price69.22216.00265.47166.97150.86116.70158.92
Mkt Cap11.164.0107.59.48.442.126.6
Rev LTM1,8939,23120,9032,0011,6405,5723,786
Op Inc LTM1328685,4725583142,208713
FCF LTM1662,5854,2103903361,7091,050
FCF 3Y Avg1332,0903,8463313101,6701,000
CFO LTM2742,7734,7586434131,9011,272
CFO 3Y Avg2452,3224,4105433851,8351,189

Growth & Margins

DAYWDAYADPPAYCPCTYPAYXMedian
NameDayforce Workday Automati.Paycom S.PaylocityPaychex  
Rev Chg LTM11.7%13.2%7.1%9.7%13.3%5.6%10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.7%15.8%7.4%16.0%21.4%6.5%15.9%
Rev Chg Q9.5%12.6%7.1%9.2%12.5%10.2%9.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.2%3.0%1.7%2.1%2.8%2.4%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM7.0%9.4%26.2%27.9%19.1%39.6%22.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.8%5.1%25.8%29.3%18.0%40.5%21.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.8%-0.1%-0.2%0.1%-1.9%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM14.5%30.0%22.8%32.1%25.2%34.1%27.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.5%28.4%22.5%29.8%26.8%34.7%27.6%
FCF/Rev LTM8.8%28.0%20.1%19.5%20.5%30.7%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.7%25.5%19.6%18.2%21.5%31.6%20.5%

Valuation

DAYWDAYADPPAYCPCTYPAYXMedian
NameDayforce Workday Automati.Paycom S.PaylocityPaychex  
Mkt Cap11.164.0107.59.48.442.126.6
P/S5.86.95.75.85.48.25.8
P/EBIT-168.1-20.419.028.220.020.0
P/E-73.599.728.725.839.327.628.2
P/CFO40.123.125.018.221.424.023.6
Total Yield-1.4%1.0%5.5%4.6%2.5%6.8%3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.1%0.7%0.0%3.2%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.3%-3.5%2.9%3.3%3.7%3.3%
D/E0.1-0.10.00.00.10.1
Net D/E0.1-0.0-0.0-0.00.10.0

Returns

DAYWDAYADPPAYCPCTYPAYXMedian
NameDayforce Workday Automati.Paycom S.PaylocityPaychex  
1M Rtn0.6%-4.0%6.5%1.8%3.8%5.6%2.8%
3M Rtn1.2%-8.0%-7.5%-22.1%-8.8%-11.0%-8.4%
6M Rtn23.1%-8.8%-12.5%-28.0%-14.5%-21.0%-13.5%
12M Rtn-10.6%-22.3%-8.2%-27.8%-25.7%-14.2%-18.3%
3Y Rtn8.3%23.3%14.8%-45.3%-24.4%10.2%9.3%
1M Excs Rtn-0.2%-4.7%5.8%1.0%3.1%4.9%2.0%
3M Excs Rtn-1.0%-8.8%-9.5%-24.1%-9.9%-11.5%-9.7%
6M Excs Rtn10.7%-21.2%-24.8%-40.4%-26.9%-33.4%-25.9%
12M Excs Rtn-21.4%-32.2%-19.6%-39.4%-35.7%-25.7%-28.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-65.8%-43.4%-61.2%-116.2%-96.8%-64.5%-65.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment1,514    
Dayforce recurring 815   
Other recurring 139   
Powerpay recurring 93   
Professional services and other 199   
Bureau  151113164
Cloud  873729660
Total1,5141,2461,024842824


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,463,315
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202521.4%
Average Daily Volume2,472,652
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.21
Basic Shares Quantity159,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20250.1%0.3%1.1%
8/6/20250.4%-3.1%30.7%
5/7/2025-6.4%1.8%1.7%
2/5/2025-8.0%-9.0%-23.8%
10/30/20247.3%18.1%22.3%
7/31/202410.4%-2.2%6.3%
5/1/2024-6.0%-3.6%-17.9%
2/7/2024-2.7%-1.5%-6.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111013
# Negative141512
Median Positive4.2%5.6%8.2%
Median Negative-6.2%-6.5%-11.1%
Max Positive10.4%18.1%32.4%
Max Negative-13.1%-18.0%-24.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Alkharrat SamerEVP, Chief Revenue Officer11262025Sell69.003,232223,0087,914,438Form
1Holdridge Stephen H.President, COO11182025Sell68.872,000137,74012,314,920Form
2PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ 11052025Sell68.6925,0051,717,5961,697,900,163Form
3PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ 11032025Sell68.4539,5582,707,7451,694,371,462Form