Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $78.13 | Market Cap: $309.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $78.13Market Cap: $309.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | Key risksCSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -1.2% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -1.2% |
| Key risksCSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cisco Systems (CSCO) experienced a 13.6% stock price increase between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 24, 2025, driven by several key factors.1. Strong Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings and Positive FY2026 Guidance. Despite an initial slight dip, Cisco's financial results for Q4 FY2025, reported on August 13, 2025, surpassed Wall Street's expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic outlook and guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting continued growth in revenue and earnings per share, which helped bolster investor confidence in its future performance.
2. Exceptional Momentum in AI Infrastructure Orders. A significant driver was Cisco's impressive performance in AI infrastructure, with orders from webscale customers exceeding $800 million in Q4 FY2025 alone, pushing the total for FY2025 to over $2 billion—more than double the original target. This demonstrated Cisco's critical role in developing the necessary infrastructure for the burgeoning AI era, a strong catalyst for market enthusiasm.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.2% change in CSCO stock from 9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 14.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9232025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.13 | 78.02 | 16.21% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56654.00 | 57696.00 | 1.84% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.97% | 17.90% | -0.37% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.12 | 29.88 | 14.39% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3961.00 | 3956.00 | 0.13% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.21% |
Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 16.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 35.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.2% | 44.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.3% change in CSCO stock from 6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 9.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6242025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.08 | 78.02 | 16.31% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55623.00 | 57696.00 | 3.73% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.60% | 17.90% | 1.69% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.21 | 29.88 | 9.82% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3972.00 | 3956.00 | 0.40% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.31% |
Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 41.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 18.2% | 46.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.7% change in CSCO stock from 12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 22.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12232024 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.50 | 78.02 | 35.69% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52976.00 | 57696.00 | 8.91% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.73% | 17.90% | 0.97% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.42 | 29.88 | 22.35% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3990.00 | 3956.00 | 0.85% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.68% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 35.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | 70.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.2% | 70.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 79.4% change in CSCO stock from 12/24/2022 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 92.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12242022 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.49 | 78.02 | 79.38% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52289.00 | 57696.00 | 10.34% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.00% | 17.90% | -18.61% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.53 | 29.88 | 92.36% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4108.00 | 3956.00 | 3.70% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 79.14% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 65.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 62.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 53.8% | 57.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSCO Return | -3% | 46% | -22% | 9% | 21% | 35% | 95% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 77% | -19% | 66% | 51% | 8% | 411% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSCO Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 73% | 42% | 65% | 65% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSCO Max Drawdown | -30% | -1% | -36% | -3% | -9% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -6% | -32% | -8% | -7% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPE, ANET, DELL, PANW, FTNT. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 856 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 375 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,906 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ANET, VRT, NTAP, CSCO, MSI
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 62.9% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cisco is like Intel for network infrastructure.
- Cisco is like Microsoft for enterprise connectivity and collaboration.
- Cisco is like IBM for powering the internet and corporate networks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Network Infrastructure: Cisco provides a wide range of hardware and software for building and managing networks, including routers, switches, and wireless access points.
- Cybersecurity Solutions: It offers comprehensive security products and services to protect networks, endpoints, clouds, and applications from cyber threats.
- Collaboration Tools (Webex): Cisco's Webex suite delivers cloud-based services for video conferencing, team messaging, online calling, and contact center operations.
- Data Center & Cloud Solutions: This includes servers (Cisco UCS), storage networking, and software for managing hybrid cloud environments and data centers.
- Services (Technical Support & Consulting): Cisco provides technical support, professional services, and consulting to help customers design, implement, and operate its technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cisco Systems (CSCO) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, governments, and service providers, rather than directly to individuals. Its customer base is highly diversified across various industries and geographic regions, with no single customer typically accounting for 10% or more of its total revenue, as per its financial filings. Despite this diversification, Cisco serves large organizations that require extensive networking hardware, software, security, collaboration tools, and related services. These customers can be broadly categorized as: 1. **Service Providers:** Telecommunications companies, internet service providers (ISPs), and cable operators that build and operate large-scale networks. These companies are major purchasers of Cisco's carrier-grade routers, switches, optical networking equipment, and software for their infrastructure. 2. **Enterprises:** Large corporations across virtually all sectors, including financial services, manufacturing, retail, technology, healthcare, and more. These businesses utilize Cisco's full suite of products for their data centers, campus networks, security, collaboration (e.g., Webex), and IoT solutions. 3. **Public Sector:** Government agencies (federal, state, and local) and educational institutions, which also have significant needs for robust, secure, and scalable network infrastructure. While Cisco does not disclose specific individual "major customers" due to the breadth of its client base and client confidentiality, the following public companies are prominent examples of organizations within the Service Provider category that are very likely significant customers for Cisco due to the scale and nature of their operations: * **AT&T Inc.** (Symbol: T) * **Verizon Communications Inc.** (Symbol: VZ) * **Comcast Corporation** (Symbol: CMCSA) * **Deutsche Telekom AG** (Symbol: DTEGY) * **BT Group plc** (Symbol: BT) These companies represent the types of large, public entities that invest heavily in the kind of networking and IT infrastructure that Cisco provides. ```htmlCisco Systems (CSCO) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, governments, and service providers, rather than directly to individuals. Its customer base is highly diversified across various industries and geographic regions, with no single customer typically accounting for 10% or more of its total revenue, as per its financial filings.
Despite this diversification, Cisco serves large organizations that require extensive networking hardware, software, security, collaboration tools, and related services. These customers can be broadly categorized as:
- Service Providers: Telecommunications companies, internet service providers (ISPs), and cable operators that build and operate large-scale networks. These companies are major purchasers of Cisco's carrier-grade routers, switches, optical networking equipment, and software for their infrastructure.
- Enterprises: Large corporations across virtually all sectors, including financial services, manufacturing, retail, technology, healthcare, and more. These businesses utilize Cisco's full suite of products for their data centers, campus networks, security, collaboration (e.g., Webex), and IoT solutions.
- Public Sector: Government agencies (federal, state, and local) and educational institutions, which also have significant needs for robust, secure, and scalable network infrastructure.
While Cisco does not disclose specific individual "major customers" due to the breadth of its client base and client confidentiality, the following public companies are prominent examples of organizations within the Service Provider category that are very likely significant customers for Cisco due to the scale and nature of their operations:
- AT&T Inc. (Symbol: T)
- Verizon Communications Inc. (Symbol: VZ)
- Comcast Corporation (Symbol: CMCSA)
- Deutsche Telekom AG (Symbol: DTEGY)
- BT Group plc (Symbol: BT)
These companies represent the types of large, public entities that invest heavily in the kind of networking and IT infrastructure that Cisco provides.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here is the management team for Cisco Systems:Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Chuck Robbins joined Cisco Systems in 1997 and has served as CEO since 2015, also becoming Chairman in 2017. Under his leadership, Cisco has focused on transforming towards software, services, and innovative technologies, including significant acquisitions like Splunk. Prior to Cisco, Robbins began his career as an application developer at North Carolina National Bank and held managerial positions at Wellfleet Communications and Ascend Communications.
Mark Patterson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark Patterson assumed the role of CFO on July 27, 2025, succeeding Scott Herren. He has been with Cisco since 2000, holding various leadership positions across finance, strategy, and operations, and previously served as Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer. Before joining Cisco, Patterson led finance and operations for IPMobile, a startup that Cisco later acquired.
Liz Centoni, Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Experience Officer
Liz Centoni joined Cisco in 2000 and leads a team of 20,000 focused on helping customers transform their businesses using Cisco's AI-enhanced software, subscription, and lifecycle services. Her prior roles at Cisco include Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer, and General Manager of Applications. Centoni played a key role in driving Cisco's overall strategic direction, including spearheading the $28 billion acquisition of Splunk, and is a voting member of Cisco's Investment review board, which guides the company's engagements with startups and the global venture community.
Francine Katsoudas, Executive Vice President and Chief People, Policy & Purpose Officer
A veteran of Cisco for over 25 years, Francine Katsoudas oversees critical functions that shape Cisco's conscious culture and advance its purpose to power an inclusive future. She has extensive experience leading organizational transformations, fostering growth, and developing leaders. Before her current role, she held various positions within Cisco, including HR business partner to the Engineering leadership team and roles in Service Provider, HR Operations, Customer Service, Acquisition Integration, and Services groups. Prior to Cisco, Katsoudas worked in the financial and professional services industries.
Jeetu Patel, President and Chief Product Officer
Jeetu Patel joined Cisco in 2020 and is responsible for leading product management, user experience, and strategy across Cisco's collaboration and security portfolio. He focuses on integrating Cisco's portfolio to deliver AI-powered, cloud-first solutions. Before his tenure at Cisco, Patel served as Chief Product Officer and Chief Strategy Officer at Box, where he was instrumental in scaling the company's cloud content strategy and expanding its developer ecosystem. He also held executive positions at EMC and Doculabs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Cisco Systems (CSCO):
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Cisco faces significant competition across its core business segments, including networking hardware (switches and routers) and cybersecurity. Rivals such as Huawei, HPE, Arista Networks, Juniper Networks, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike are challenging Cisco's market share. The shift towards cloud networking and software-defined networking (SDN) also presents a competitive threat, as these solutions often prioritize software over traditional hardware. In the cybersecurity market, despite strategic acquisitions like Splunk, Cisco trails some competitors in growth and innovation. This intense competitive landscape and the potential for market share loss pose a continuous threat to Cisco's revenue and profitability.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Given that Cisco relies on outsourced manufacturing for over 99% of its products, it is highly exposed to supply chain risks. These risks include potential component shortages, geopolitical disruptions, and the financial health of its contract manufacturers and suppliers. While Cisco has established robust supply chain risk management programs to mitigate disruptions, the complexity of its global supply chain, involving numerous tiers of suppliers, means that unexpected events can still impact production and delivery capabilities. Cyberattacks targeting the supply chain also represent a significant and evolving threat, potentially leading to intellectual property loss and damage to brand image.
- Challenges in Business Model Transition and Acquisition Integration: Cisco is actively transforming its business model from one heavily reliant on hardware sales to a more software and subscription-driven approach. This transition, while intended to create more sustainable and predictable revenue streams, carries inherent risks. A key part of this strategy involves significant acquisitions, such as Splunk, which bring integration challenges. Successfully integrating acquired companies, realizing expected synergies, and maintaining operational efficiency without disruption can be complex. Furthermore, the company's ability to innovate and adapt quickly to emerging technologies, particularly in the rapidly evolving AI space, is crucial for justifying the higher valuations often associated with a software-centric model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Cisco Systems (CSCO) is the rapid and accelerating industry shift towards cloud-native Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA).
Cisco's traditional business model has long revolved around selling on-premise networking hardware (routers, switches) and security appliances (firewalls, VPNs) designed for a perimeter-based security model. SASE and ZTA represent a fundamental disruption to this approach. SASE converges networking and security functions—such as SD-WAN, Firewall-as-a-Service, Secure Web Gateway, Cloud Access Security Broker (CASB), and Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA)—into a single, cloud-delivered service. ZTA, meanwhile, mandates verifying every user and device trying to access resources, regardless of their location, eliminating implicit trust within a network.
This paradigm shift directly challenges Cisco's established revenue streams by diminishing the need for discrete, on-premise hardware and traditional network security stacks. Competitors like Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks (with Prisma SASE), Fortinet (with FortiSASE), and Netskope are leading this movement, offering integrated, cloud-first solutions that streamline operations and reduce the total cost of ownership for enterprises. While Cisco is actively developing and acquiring its own SASE and ZTNA capabilities (e.g., Cisco Secure Access, ThousandEyes for SASE, integrations with SD-WAN), the foundational change in how network and security services are consumed—moving from hardware-centric to cloud-native and service-oriented—poses a significant threat to its core business. This shift is comparable to how Netflix's cloud-based streaming model rendered Blockbuster's physical stores obsolete, or how the iPhone's integrated, app-ecosystem approach disrupted BlackBerry's hardware-focused, secure communication devices.
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) Addressable Markets
Cisco Systems is a global leader in networking, security, and collaboration technologies, with a diverse portfolio of products and services. The estimated total addressable markets for its main offerings are as follows:- Enterprise Networking: The global enterprise networking market size was estimated at USD 213.70 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to approximately USD 376.61 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.83% from 2025 to 2034. Another report valued the global enterprise networking market at USD 119.7 billion in 2023, poised to grow to USD 241.28 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 8.1% from 2025 to 2032. The Asia Pacific region held the largest market share in 2024. The market size for 2025 is estimated at USD 124.59 billion, projected to reach USD 193.77 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 9.2%. The U.S. enterprise networking market is also expected to grow sustainably.
- Collaboration Tools: The global collaboration tools market is estimated to be valued at USD 48.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 143.9 billion by 2035, registering a CAGR of 11.4% over the forecast period. Another estimate for the global business collaboration tools market size was USD 31.86 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 162.52 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 22.59%. The global enterprise collaboration market size was estimated at USD 54.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 107.03 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2025 to 2030. The team collaboration tools market is valued at USD 23.75 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 42.20 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 12.2%. The global collaboration software market is projected to reach USD 261.7 billion by 2035 from USD 93.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.8% from 2025 to 2035. North America held the largest share in the team collaboration tools market in 2024. The U.S. enterprise collaboration market accounted for over 81% of the market share in 2024.
- Cybersecurity Solutions: The global cybersecurity market is estimated at USD 198.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 309.7 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.5%. The total addressable market for cybersecurity was estimated at a staggering USD 1.5 trillion to USD 2.0 trillion in 2021, with a current growth rate of 12.4% annually. Another report valued the global cybersecurity market at USD 219.0 billion in 2023, and it is estimated to reach USD 578.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2024 to 2033. The global cybersecurity market size was valued at USD 245.62 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 500.70 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.9% from 2025 to 2030. North America held the largest revenue share in the cybersecurity market in 2024. The U.S. market was estimated at USD 53.5 billion in 2023.
- Data Center Networking: The global data center networking market size was valued at USD 47.09 billion in 2025 and is predicted to surpass USD 117.44 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 10.73% from 2025 to 2034. Another source states the global data center networking market size was valued at USD 34.61 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 118.94 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 14.70% during the forecast period (2025-2033). The global data center networking market size was also valued at USD 31.15 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 75.59 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 11.72%. The market size was estimated at USD 37.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 64.2 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 11.3%. North America dominated the market with the largest revenue share in 2024, and the U.S. data center networking market size was valued at USD 13.07 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 33.39 billion by 2034.
- Internet of Things (IoT) Solutions: The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 11.4% from 2024 to 2030. Another report indicates the global IoT solutions & services market size is expected to be worth around USD 1602.3 billion by 2034, from USD 330.5 billion in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 17.10% from 2025 to 2034. The internet of things market stands at USD 1,350 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 2,720 billion by 2030, advancing at a 15.04% CAGR. The global Internet of Things (IoT) market was also valued at USD 405.69 billion and is projected to reach USD 1773.69 billion by the end of 2030, growing at a CAGR of 23.46% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the largest market revenue share in 2023. The U.S. dominates the North American market, with a market size of USD 104.0 billion in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cisco Systems (CSCO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategic initiatives and market trends:
1. Surging Demand for AI Infrastructure
Cisco is experiencing significant demand for its networking infrastructure to support artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, particularly from hyperscalers and enterprises building out their AI data centers. The company secured over $2 billion in AI-related orders in fiscal year 2025, more than doubling its initial target. This growth is fueled by new AI-centric products, such as the 8223 routing system and integration with NVIDIA's Spectrum-X Ethernet technology, designed to modernize networks for AI applications.
2. Expansion of Security Solutions and Splunk Integration
The acquisition and ongoing integration of Splunk are substantially bolstering Cisco's cybersecurity division, contributing significantly to revenue growth. Security revenue has seen considerable year-over-year increases, with Splunk's analytics tools being a pivotal component. Additionally, new and next-generation products like Hypershield and XDR (Extended Detection and Response) are further fueling this momentum by addressing the escalating demand for advanced threat protection.
3. Shift to Software and Subscription-Based Business Models
Cisco is actively transitioning its business model from primarily hardware-focused to a software and subscription-driven approach. This strategic pivot has led to consistent growth in software revenue and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), with subscription revenue now representing a substantial portion of the company's total revenue. This shift creates more predictable income streams and is aligned with how customers increasingly prefer to consume technology.
4. Network Modernization and Campus Refresh Cycles
A significant driver of future revenue growth is the large installed base of aging network equipment (estimated to be 5-15 years old) that requires upgrades. Analysts project a multi-year campus refresh cycle, with businesses investing in upgrades to AI-enabled Smart Switches and other secure, intelligent network infrastructure to support digital transformation and the integration of AI.
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Share Repurchases
- Cisco repurchased approximately $5.995 billion in common stock during fiscal year 2025.
- The company's annual share buybacks were $5.787 billion in 2024, $4.293 billion in 2023, and $7.689 billion in 2022.
- As of July 26, 2025, Cisco had approximately $14.2 billion remaining under its stock repurchase program, with no termination date.
Outbound Investments
- Cisco completed the acquisition of Splunk for $28 billion in March 2024, a strategic move to bolster its data analytics, AI, and cybersecurity capabilities. This acquisition significantly increased net acquisitions to approximately $26 billion in fiscal year 2024.
- In 2021, Cisco closed 11 global acquisitions, including Acacia Communications, which was noted as one of its most significant deals in recent years.
- Cisco has a US$1 billion investment fund as part of its AI strategy and is actively making opportunistic acquisitions and investments in AI startups to accelerate its vision.
Capital Expenditures
- Cisco's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were $905 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- Capital expenditures were $670 million in fiscal year 2024 and $849 million in fiscal year 2023. The average capital expenditures from fiscal years 2021 to 2025 were $718.6 million.
- The company's capital expenditures support its strategic focus on building infrastructure for the AI era, including network optimization and AI-native management tools for data center environments.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.2% | 16.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
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Peer Comparisons for Cisco Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 104.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 106.7 |
| Rev LTM | 21,926 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,828 |
| FCF LTM | 3,868 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,071 |
| CFO LTM | 4,059 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,662 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 106.7 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| P/EBIT | 24.6 |
| P/E | 40.9 |
| P/CFO | 23.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 122.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 34.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Networking | 29,229 | 34,570 | |||
| Services | 14,550 | 13,856 | 13,539 | 13,804 | 13,323 |
| Security | 5,075 | 3,859 | 3,158 | ||
| Collaboration | 4,113 | 4,052 | 4,472 | 4,727 | |
| Observability | 837 | 661 | |||
| End-to-End Security | 3,699 | 3,382 | |||
| Internet for the Future | 5,276 | 4,514 | |||
| Optimized Application Experiences | 729 | 654 | |||
| Other Products | 11 | 15 | 33 | ||
| Secure, Agile Networks | 23,831 | 22,722 | |||
| Applications | 5,568 | ||||
| Infrastructure Platforms | 27,219 | ||||
| Total | 53,804 | 56,998 | 51,557 | 49,818 | 49,301 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $78.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 309.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $74.84 | $66.77 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.3% | 16.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 22.3% | 23.8% |
| Downside Capture | 38.46 | 76.96 |
| Upside Capture | 103.20 | 95.18 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.4% | 70.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| Up Beta | -0.25 | -0.08 | -0.07 | 0.71 | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | 0.08 | 0.83 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| Up Capture | 110% | 98% | 84% | 102% | 88% | 53% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 25 | 34 | 68 | 136 | 407 |
| Down Capture | 52% | 29% | 51% | 84% | 82% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 16 | 28 | 57 | 109 | 337 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of CSCO With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 39.1% | 26.5% | 18.8% | 72.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | -11.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 23.7% | 27.6% | 19.5% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 17.2% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.33 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 2.72 | 0.36 | 0.05 | -0.14 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 70.5% | 70.4% | 4.7% | 24.5% | 43.4% | 26.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of CSCO With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 15.1% | 19.1% | 14.8% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 35.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 22.5% | 24.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.59 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 57.8% | 62.4% | 5.9% | 15.8% | 45.1% | 20.1% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of CSCO With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 14.7% | 22.4% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 69.1% |
| Annualized Volatility | 25.1% | 24.2% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.57 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 66.5% | 69.7% | 1.4% | 23.7% | 48.6% | 16.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLK, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 11.0% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -24.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 11182025 | 10-Q 10/25/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9032025 | 10-K 7/26/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 4/26/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2182025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-K 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5212024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2202024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-K 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2212023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-K 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5252022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2222022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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