Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 20%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4%
 
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.63
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Connectivity & Mobility, and Digital Travel & Customer Experience. Themes include Air Passenger Transportation, Regional Air Cargo Logistics, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 20%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Connectivity & Mobility, and Digital Travel & Customer Experience. Themes include Air Passenger Transportation, Regional Air Cargo Logistics, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4%
6 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.63

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CPA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Copa Holdings (CPA) moved by 13.3% between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025. Here are the key points explaining this movement:

1. Strong Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases: Copa Holdings consistently received a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" consensus rating from analysts during this period. Several analysts raised their price targets, indicating a positive outlook for the stock. For instance, Citi reiterated a Buy rating with a $159.00 price target in July 2025. Raymond James raised its price target to $150 from $147 in August 2025 and then to $164 from $150 in November 2025. Evercore ISI Group also increased its target to $160 from $150 in September 2025. These upward revisions in price targets and sustained positive recommendations likely contributed to investor confidence and the stock's appreciation.

2. Positive Monthly Traffic Statistics: Copa Holdings reported solid passenger traffic statistics. In July 2025, Citi cited strong June traffic as aligning with positive expectations, with system-wide passenger traffic increasing by 6.3% year-over-year and a load factor improvement to 87.5%. The demand growth outpacing capacity increases was a key factor highlighted by analysts. This consistent positive operational data likely reassured investors about the company's performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CPA Return-28%7%1%32%-12%47%34%
Peers Return-24%-2%-23%4%53%-6%-16%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CPA Win Rate25%50%50%58%50%80% 
Peers Win Rate43%47%45%43%60%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CPA Max Drawdown-74%-14%-33%-2%-21%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-68%-14%-35%-21%-11%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AL, JBLU, DAL, UAL, LUV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCPAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven329 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven297.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1175 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven106.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven291.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1179 days1480 days

Compare to AL, JBLU, DAL, UAL, LUV


In The Past

Copa's stock fell -42.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -42.5% loss requires a 74.0% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Copa (CPA)

Better Bets than Copa (CPA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CPA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Copa

Financials

CPAALJBLUDALUALLUVMedian
NameCopa Air LeaseJetBlue .Delta Ai.United A.Southwes. 
Mkt Price123.6763.694.0555.7689.9531.8559.72
Mkt Cap5.17.11.536.229.116.711.9
Rev LTM3,4752,9089,09562,92058,36827,55118,323
Op Inc LTM768601-2226,0725,165315684
FCF LTM1,010-1,985-1,3543,0743,710-250380
FCF 3Y Avg986-2,513-1,1561,8351,783-1,019-17
CFO LTM1,0101,751-1607,9769,3692,0241,887
CFO 3Y Avg9861,7231537,2538,2201,9171,820

Growth & Margins

CPAALJBLUDALUALLUVMedian
NameCopa Air LeaseJetBlue .Delta Ai.United A.Southwes. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.5%6.2%-2.5%4.3%4.2%0.6%2.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.9%8.0%2.3%10.8%13.2%6.8%9.4%
Rev Chg Q2.8%5.1%-1.8%6.4%2.6%1.1%2.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%1.2%-0.5%1.6%0.7%0.3%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM22.1%20.7%-2.4%9.7%8.8%1.1%9.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.4%23.7%-1.0%9.5%9.2%0.3%9.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.5%-0.9%0.3%-0.5%-0.0%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM29.1%60.2%-1.8%12.7%16.1%7.3%14.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.5%63.0%1.5%12.1%14.8%7.3%13.4%
FCF/Rev LTM29.1%-68.3%-14.9%4.9%6.4%-0.9%2.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg28.5%-92.3%-12.4%3.0%3.1%-3.8%-0.4%

Valuation

CPAALJBLUDALUALLUVMedian
NameCopa Air LeaseJetBlue .Delta Ai.United A.Southwes. 
Mkt Cap5.17.11.536.229.116.711.9
P/S1.52.40.20.60.50.60.6
P/EBIT6.15.3-23.05.55.327.15.4
P/E8.07.0-3.17.88.844.07.9
P/CFO5.04.1-9.24.53.18.24.3
Total Yield12.5%15.7%-31.8%13.4%11.3%4.7%11.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.4%0.0%0.6%0.0%2.4%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg23.1%-48.4%-60.1%5.7%7.7%-5.9%-0.1%
D/E0.42.86.40.61.10.30.8
Net D/E0.22.84.60.50.60.10.5

Returns

CPAALJBLUDALUALLUVMedian
NameCopa Air LeaseJetBlue .Delta Ai.United A.Southwes. 
1M Rtn-0.9%0.0%-13.1%-6.5%-9.3%-5.0%-5.7%
3M Rtn7.7%10.0%-21.8%-8.4%-12.1%2.3%-3.1%
6M Rtn21.9%12.3%-18.0%9.6%14.4%-1.2%11.0%
12M Rtn28.4%33.6%-42.6%-11.9%-1.3%-0.1%-0.7%
3Y Rtn76.9%81.6%-48.5%66.3%105.3%-10.6%71.6%
1M Excs Rtn-1.0%-0.1%-13.2%-6.6%-9.4%-5.1%-5.9%
3M Excs Rtn4.9%5.9%-27.2%-11.6%-16.0%-2.7%-7.2%
6M Excs Rtn10.0%0.4%-29.9%-2.2%2.5%-13.0%-0.9%
12M Excs Rtn20.2%19.7%-53.1%-23.9%-11.3%-10.9%-11.1%
3Y Excs Rtn20.3%15.6%-118.3%-7.2%34.3%-80.8%4.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Air transportation (that includes cargo and mail revenue)3,4572,965   
Cargo and mail revenue  722162
Other operating revenue  261932
Passenger revenue  1,4127612,613
Total3,4572,9651,5108012,707


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,617,921
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-1.9%
Average Daily Volume139,135
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.63
Basic Shares Quantity41,246,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580820256-K 6/30/2025
331202550920256-K 3/31/2025
12312024429202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024112220246-K 9/30/2024
630202480920246-K 6/30/2024
331202451720246-K 3/31/2024
12312023429202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111620236-K 9/30/2023
630202381120236-K 6/30/2023
331202351220236-K 3/31/2023
12312022324202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111820226-K 9/30/2022
630202280520226-K 6/30/2022
331202251320226-K 3/31/2022
12312021404202220-F 12/31/2021
9302021111820216-K 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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