Copa (CPA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $123.64 | Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Copa (CPA)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $123.64Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 20% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.63 | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Connectivity & Mobility, and Digital Travel & Customer Experience. Themes include Air Passenger Transportation, Regional Air Cargo Logistics, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 20% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Connectivity & Mobility, and Digital Travel & Customer Experience. Themes include Air Passenger Transportation, Regional Air Cargo Logistics, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.63 |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CPA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Copa Holdings (CPA) moved by 13.3% between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025. Here are the key points explaining this movement:
1. Strong Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases:
Copa Holdings consistently received a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" consensus rating from analysts during this period. Several analysts raised their price targets, indicating a positive outlook for the stock. For instance, Citi reiterated a Buy rating with a $159.00 price target in July 2025. Raymond James raised its price target to $150 from $147 in August 2025 and then to $164 from $150 in November 2025. Evercore ISI Group also increased its target to $160 from $150 in September 2025. These upward revisions in price targets and sustained positive recommendations likely contributed to investor confidence and the stock's appreciation.
2. Positive Monthly Traffic Statistics:
Copa Holdings reported solid passenger traffic statistics. In July 2025, Citi cited strong June traffic as aligning with positive expectations, with system-wide passenger traffic increasing by 6.3% year-over-year and a load factor improvement to 87.5%. The demand growth outpacing capacity increases was a key factor highlighted by analysts. This consistent positive operational data likely reassured investors about the company's performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CPA Return | -28% | 7% | 1% | 32% | -12% | 47% | 34% |
| Peers Return | -24% | -2% | -23% | 4% | 53% | -6% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CPA Win Rate | 25% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 47% | 45% | 43% | 60% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CPA Max Drawdown | -74% | -14% | -33% | -2% | -21% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -68% | -14% | -35% | -21% | -11% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AL, JBLU, DAL, UAL, LUV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CPA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 297.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1175 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 291.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1179 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AL, JBLU, DAL, UAL, LUV
In The Past
Copa's stock fell -42.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -42.5% loss requires a 74.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Copa Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| CPA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Copa Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -6.4% in 2024 and 8.6% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Time To Buy Copa Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Copa (CPA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Copa (CPA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Copa (CPA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Copa (CPA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| DAL’s 15% Single Month Rise Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is CPA a Better Deal? | September 9th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CPA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Copa
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| Rev LTM | 18,323 |
| Op Inc LTM | 684 |
| FCF LTM | 380 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -17 |
| CFO LTM | 1,887 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,820 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.4 |
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/CFO | 4.3 |
| Total Yield | 11.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4292025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11222024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5172024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4292024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11162023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3242023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11182022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4042022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11182021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |