Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 275%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -68%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%
  Key risks
AL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on debt financing, Show more.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Aircraft Leasing, and Travel & Leisure Tech.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Aircraft Leasing, and Travel & Leisure Tech.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 275%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -68%
8 Key risks
AL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on debt financing, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for Air Lease (AL) for the period leading up to today: 1. Stockholder Approval of Merger Agreement

On December 18, 2025, Air Lease's Class A common stockholders officially approved the definitive merger agreement. This approval solidified the acquisition of Air Lease by Sumisho Air Lease Corporation DAC for $65.00 per share in cash, providing a clear path to the transaction's completion and significantly reducing investor uncertainty. 2. Initial Merger Agreement Announcement

The announcement of the definitive merger agreement on September 1, 2025, detailing the acquisition of Air Lease for $65.00 per share in cash, established a new valuation benchmark for the company's stock. This initial news created an expectation of a fixed cash payout, which began to drive the stock price upwards towards the offer price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AL Return-4%1%-11%11%17%35%51%
Peers Return-23%26%30%-1%182%-11%217%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AL Win Rate42%58%42%50%33%75% 
Peers Win Rate50%54%50%58%71%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AL Max Drawdown-77%-16%-31%-11%-6%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-6%-18%-21%-4%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WLFC, GATX. See AL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven683 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven359.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven355 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-42.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven805 days120 days

Compare to WCC, CWST, MSM, RJET, DAL


In The Past

Air Lease's stock fell -42.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/11/2021. A -42.0% loss requires a 72.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Air Lease (AL)

Better Bets than Air Lease (AL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Air Lease

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALWLFCGATXMedian
NameAir LeaseWillis L.GATX  
Mkt Price64.06133.45172.77133.45
Mkt Cap7.20.96.26.2
Rev LTM2,9086891,7051,705
Op Inc LTM601286521521
FCF LTM-1,985-412710-412
FCF 3Y Avg-2,513-210602-210
CFO LTM1,751277710710
CFO 3Y Avg1,723262602602

Growth & Margins

ALWLFCGATXMedian
NameAir LeaseWillis L.GATX  
Rev Chg LTM6.2%29.9%10.7%10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.0%32.0%10.3%10.3%
Rev Chg Q5.1%25.4%8.4%8.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.2%5.7%2.0%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM20.7%41.5%30.6%30.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg23.7%40.1%29.2%29.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%1.2%-0.6%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM60.2%40.2%41.6%41.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg63.0%50.4%39.2%50.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-68.3%-59.7%41.6%-59.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-92.3%-33.3%39.2%-33.3%

Valuation

ALWLFCGATXMedian
NameAir LeaseWillis L.GATX  
Mkt Cap7.20.96.26.2
P/S2.51.33.62.5
P/EBIT5.43.09.55.4
P/E7.07.419.87.4
P/CFO4.13.38.74.1
Total Yield15.6%14.2%5.0%14.2%
Dividend Yield1.4%0.8%0.0%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-48.4%-20.6%12.4%-20.6%
D/E2.82.51.52.5
Net D/E2.82.41.32.4

Returns

ALWLFCGATXMedian
NameAir LeaseWillis L.GATX  
1M Rtn0.9%12.6%12.6%12.6%
3M Rtn1.1%-8.2%0.8%0.8%
6M Rtn14.2%-3.6%13.9%13.9%
12M Rtn33.9%-34.4%13.5%13.5%
3Y Rtn79.1%146.4%65.3%79.1%
1M Excs Rtn-2.1%5.1%10.8%5.1%
3M Excs Rtn-0.9%-12.0%-3.6%-3.6%
6M Excs Rtn0.9%-18.7%-1.3%-1.3%
12M Excs Rtn19.6%-49.9%-4.1%-4.1%
3Y Excs Rtn3.0%69.8%-5.4%3.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment2,685    
Aircraft sales, trading and other 1038569100
Rental of flight equipment 2,2152,0031,9471,917
Total2,6852,3172,0882,0152,017


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,943,257
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.5%
Average Daily Volume2,870,964
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity111,765,032
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2025-0.3%-0.1%0.5%
8/4/2025-0.4%-0.0%16.1%
5/5/20258.0%13.8%16.8%
2/13/20256.7%2.8%0.9%
11/7/2024-0.5%3.6%6.1%
8/1/2024-13.8%-10.5%-3.0%
5/6/2024-7.3%-5.2%-8.5%
2/15/2024-4.8%-7.3%8.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111213
# Negative141312
Median Positive5.3%4.4%8.5%
Median Negative-3.8%-6.5%-5.0%
Max Positive14.1%13.8%52.2%
Max Negative-13.8%-16.0%-65.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021