Air Lease (AL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $63.94 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Air Lease (AL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $63.94Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 278% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -68% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Aircraft Leasing, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Aircraft Leasing, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 278% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -68% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Air Lease (AL) stock experienced a 6% movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily influenced by a major acquisition announcement, positive financial results, and favorable market conditions.
1. 1. Merger Agreement Announcement
Air Lease announced on November 3, 2025, an agreement to be acquired by Sumisho Air Lease Corporation Designated Activity Company for $65.00 per share in cash. This transaction, valued at approximately $7.4 billion, is expected to close in the first half of 2026 and provided a significant valuation and clear future for the company's stock.
2. 2. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat
The company reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 3, 2025, announcing an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.29, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $1.16. This positive earnings surprise contributed to investor confidence.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AL Return | -4% | 1% | -11% | 11% | 17% | 35% | 51% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 52% | -5% | 21% | 3% | 10% | 144% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AL Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 48% | 33% | 38% | 35% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AL Max Drawdown | -77% | -16% | -31% | -11% | -6% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -4% | -20% | -9% | -16% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WCC, MSM, HRI, CAKR, RJET. See AL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 683 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -78.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 805 days | 120 days |
Compare to WCC, MSM, HRI, CAKR, RJET
In The Past
Air Lease's stock fell -42.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/11/2021. A -42.0% loss requires a 72.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Air Lease
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 82.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| Rev LTM | 3,770 |
| Op Inc LTM | 462 |
| FCF LTM | 138 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -123 |
| CFO LTM | 334 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 690 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 11.5 |
| P/CFO | 9.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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