Air Lease (AL)
Market Price (4/7/2026): $64.975 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Air Lease (AL)
Market Price (4/7/2026): $64.975Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Aircraft Leasing, and Travel & Leisure Tech. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 265% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63% Key risksAL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on debt financing, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Aircraft Leasing, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 265% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63% |
| Key risksAL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on debt financing, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. The pending merger agreement has established a fixed acquisition price for Air Lease shares.
Air Lease's stock movement has been significantly influenced by its announced merger with a subsidiary of Sumisho Air Lease Corporation DAC, a consortium including Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Aviation Capital, Apollo, and Brookfield. Following shareholder approval in December 2025, the final regulatory approval was received on March 30, 2026, with the merger expected to close around April 8, 2026. Under the terms, Class A common stockholders are set to receive $65.00 in cash per share upon completion. This predetermined acquisition price has acted as a ceiling, causing the stock to trade closely around the $65 mark, limiting significant upward movement as the deal approaches its conclusion.
2. Strong financial performance in Q4 2025 provided underlying support for the stock.
On February 12, 2026, Air Lease reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.20. This significantly exceeded analysts' consensus estimates, beating expectations of $1.22 by 80.33%. Although revenue of $679.54 million for the quarter slightly missed analyst forecasts, the substantial earnings beat demonstrated strong profitability and operational efficiency, providing a fundamental floor for the stock price and preventing a decline.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.6% change in AL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.01 | 65.01 | 1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,908 | 3,016 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.1% | 36.1% | 2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.0 | 6.7 | -4.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 112 | 112 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AL | 1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 36.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.9% | 34.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.8% change in AL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 63.22 | 65.01 | 2.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,873 | 3,016 | 5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.0% | 36.1% | 6.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.2 | 6.7 | -7.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 112 | 112 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AL | 2.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 27.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.9% | 35.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.5% change in AL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 130.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.63 | 65.01 | 36.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,734 | 3,016 | 10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 36.1% | 130.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.4 | 6.7 | -46.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 112 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AL | 36.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 65.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 26.7% | 59.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 74.0% change in AL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.37 | 65.01 | 74.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,317 | 3,016 | 30.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.8 | 2.4 | 34.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 112 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 74.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AL | 73.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 57.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 69.3% | 60.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AL Return | 1% | -11% | 11% | 17% | 35% | 2% | 60% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 30% | -1% | 182% | -12% | 17% | 374% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 75% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 50% | 58% | 71% | 46% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AL Max Drawdown | -16% | -31% | -11% | -6% | -16% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -18% | -21% | -4% | -26% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WLFC, GATX. See AL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 683 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -78.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 805 days | 120 days |
Compare to WLFC, GATX
In The Past
Air Lease's stock fell -42.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/11/2021. A -42.0% loss requires a 72.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Air Lease (AL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Air Lease (AL):
- It's like Hertz or Enterprise, but for airplanes, renting commercial jets to airlines worldwide.
- Think of it as Ryder System, but for commercial aircraft, owning and leasing fleets of airplanes to airlines.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Aircraft Leasing: The company purchases commercial jet aircraft and leases them to airlines globally.
- Aircraft Sales: Air Lease sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to various third parties, including other leasing companies, financial firms, and airlines.
- Fleet Management Services: The company offers services to manage aircraft portfolios for investors and other aircraft owners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Air Lease (AL) Major Customers
Air Lease Corporation (AL) sells primarily to other companies rather than individuals. Due to its diversified global customer base of approximately 120 airlines and other institutional buyers, no single customer accounts for a major portion of its total revenues (typically less than 10%). Therefore, specific names of "major customer" companies are not publicly identified by Air Lease. Instead, its customers fall into the following categories:
- Airlines worldwide: These companies lease commercial jet aircraft from Air Lease Corporation. They also sometimes purchase aircraft directly from AL's operating lease portfolio.
- Other leasing companies: These entities purchase aircraft from Air Lease Corporation's operating lease portfolio.
- Financial services companies and other investors: These third parties also acquire aircraft from Air Lease Corporation's operating lease portfolio.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Boeing (NYSE: BA)
- Airbus (OTC: EADSY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
John L. Plueger, Chief Executive Officer and President
John L. Plueger was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Air Lease Corporation in March 2010. He has over 33 years of experience in the aviation industry. Prior to co-founding Air Lease with Steven F. Udvar-Házy in 2010, Mr. Plueger spent 24 years at International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC), where he served as President and Chief Operating Officer, and later as Acting CEO. He is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from UCLA. Mr. Plueger is also an active jet pilot holding a U.S. FAA Airline Transport Pilot license. Each member of Air Lease's initial executive team, including Mr. Plueger, invested their own capital in the company.
Gregory B. Willis, CPA, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Gregory B. Willis currently serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Air Lease Corporation, a position he has held since July 2016. He oversees all aspects of finance, including debt and equity investor relations, banking, and rating agencies, and leads the Accounting, Treasury, Managed Business, Tax, Investor Relations, and IT functions. Mr. Willis is also a Member of The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. His previous roles include Director-Accounting Policy at International Lease Finance Corp., Vice President-Alternative Investments at Mellon Financial Corp., and Audit Manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. He joined Air Lease Corporation in March 2010 as Vice President, Finance & Chief Accounting Officer. He earned an undergraduate degree from the University of California, Davis.
Steven F. Udvar-Házy, Executive Chairman
Steven F. Udvar-Házy co-founded Air Lease Corporation in 2010 and serves as its Executive Chairman. He is recognized as a pioneer in the modern aircraft leasing industry. In 1973, he co-founded International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC), which became the world's largest aircraft lessor under his leadership. ILFC was sold to American International Group (AIG) in 1990 for $1.3 billion, and Mr. Udvar-Házy remained Chairman and Chief Executive until 2010, when he departed to establish Air Lease following a dispute with AIG. Before his work in aircraft leasing, Mr. Udvar-Házy started his own small airline in California in his early 20s.
Alex A. Khatibi, Executive Vice President
Alex A. Khatibi is an Executive Vice President at Air Lease Corporation. He has been with the company since its inception.
Carol Forsyte, Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary and Chief Compliance Officer
Carol Forsyte holds the titles of Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary, and Chief Compliance Officer at Air Lease Corporation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Air Lease's business are primarily financial, operational, and related to market and customer concentration.Key Risks for Air Lease (AL)
- Capital and Debt Financing Risks: Air Lease Corporation requires significant capital to refinance its existing debt and acquire new aircraft. The company is highly susceptible to market conditions, fluctuations in interest rates, and its ability to access capital markets on favorable terms. Rising interest rates have already led to increased borrowing costs, impacting net income and overall profitability. Changes in credit ratings could further restrict financing options and escalate borrowing costs.
- Aircraft Delivery Delays: Air Lease's ability to grow its fleet and deploy capital into new, high-yield leases is significantly hindered by ongoing aircraft delivery delays from major manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing. These delays can impede fleet expansion and impact earnings forecasts, as the company anticipates such issues to continue.
- Customer and Geographical Concentration: The company faces risks due to concentrated customer exposure in specific regions, such as Asia Pacific, including Taiwan and China. Economic, legal, or political instability in these areas could directly affect lessees' ability to make payments, thereby impacting Air Lease's rental revenues and profitability. Furthermore, the aircraft leasing industry is characterized by high customer concentration, leading to significant revenue dependency on a limited number of airlines. The airline industry's vulnerability to economic cycles also means that downturns can reduce travel, directly affecting the demand for leased aircraft and lessees' financial health.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable market for Air Lease Corporation's main products and services is global, primarily encompassing the commercial aircraft leasing market and, to a lesser extent, the broader fleet management market, which includes aircraft.
Commercial Aircraft Leasing Market
The global commercial aircraft leasing market was valued at approximately USD 192.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow significantly. Some estimates place the market size at USD 194.40 billion in 2025, with a projected increase to USD 210.57 billion in 2026 and further to USD 377.90 billion by 2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.60% during this forecast period. Another report indicates a market value of USD 195.11 billion in 2026, expected to reach USD 278.13 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 7.35%. By 2030, the commercial aircraft leasing market is forecast to reach USD 325 billion, growing at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2024.
Fleet Management Services Market
Air Lease also provides fleet management services. The global fleet management market, which includes various vehicle types such as cars, trucks, ships, and aircraft, was valued at USD 19.47 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach USD 52.50 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10.6% from 2021 to 2030. More recent data estimates the fleet management market at USD 32.87 billion in 2025, with a forecast to grow to USD 67.03 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 15.32%. Another projection suggests market revenue will ascend from USD 32.2 billion in 2026 to USD 153.7 billion by 2036, registering a CAGR of 16.9%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Air Lease (AL) over the next 2-3 years:
- Fleet Expansion and New Aircraft Deliveries: Air Lease's substantial forward order book for new aircraft from OEMs is expected to drive continued fleet growth. The company anticipates significant capital expenditures on new aircraft deliveries, which directly contributes to its rental revenue as these aircraft are placed on lease with airlines worldwide.
- Higher Lease Rates and Yields: Air Lease expects to benefit from increasing lease rates, particularly as older leases, including those made during the pandemic, mature and new leases are negotiated at current market rates. The persistent global supply constraints for new aircraft are contributing to a favorable demand-supply imbalance, which is anticipated to bolster lease rates and overall portfolio lease yield for the next several years.
- Robust Aircraft Sales Activity: The company maintains a strong aircraft sales pipeline and consistently generates healthy gains from opportunistic aircraft sales to third parties. This activity is supported by strong commercial aircraft demand and higher aircraft values, contributing significantly to Air Lease's overall revenue.
- High Lease Extension Activity at Favorable Rates: Air Lease is experiencing high lease extension activity, especially for single-aisle aircraft, at strong and profitable lease rates. While this may temporarily impact "end-of-lease revenue," the long-term benefits of reduced time off-lease, lower transition costs, and robust current lease rates on extensions positively contribute to the economic returns and sustained rental revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Air Lease Corporation announced a share repurchase program in February 2022, authorizing the repurchase of up to $150 million of its Class A common stock, which was set to expire on September 30, 2022.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares slightly increased from 110,892 thousand in 2022 to 111,765 thousand in 2025, suggesting minor issuances, possibly related to equity compensation.
Inbound Investments
- In September 2025, Air Lease agreed to be acquired by a new Dublin-based holding company, backed by Sumitomo Corporation, SMBC Aviation Capital, Apollo-managed funds, and Brookfield, in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $7.4 billion.
- Shareholders are expected to receive $65.00 in cash per share.
- The transaction received stockholder approval in December 2025 and is anticipated to close in the first half of 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures, primarily for aircraft investments, were approximately $3.2 billion in 2021, $3.6 billion in 2022, $4.5 billion in 2023, and $4.6 billion in 2024.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $3.4 billion.
- The company's primary focus for capital expenditures is expanding its fleet by purchasing new commercial jet aircraft from manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing. As of December 31, 2025, Air Lease had 218 new aircraft on order from Airbus and Boeing for delivery through 2031.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 176.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,740 |
| Op Inc LTM | 534 |
| FCF LTM | -272 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -258 |
| CFO LTM | 648 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 590 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 47.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -37.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.3 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 5.1 |
| P/E | 10.8 |
| P/CFO | 4.3 |
| Total Yield | 9.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -17.0% |
| D/E | 2.2 |
| Net D/E | 2.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $65.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/19/2011 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $64.60 | $62.20 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 0.6% | 4.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 1.8% | 21.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Upside Capture | 12.05 | 68.00 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.7% | 58.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| Up Beta | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| Down Beta | -0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.20 | 1.37 |
| Up Capture | 23% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 60% | 86% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 34 | 62 | 131 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 9% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 56% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 27 | 53 | 107 | 343 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 46.3% | 22.8% | 1.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 32.1% | 18.7% | 1.35 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.3% | 18.3% | 0.94 | 62.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 51.9% | 28.0% | 1.49 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 20.3% | 17.2% | 1.02 | 25.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.9% | 16.1% | 0.23 | 42.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.5% | 44.0% | -0.31 | 24.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 7.3% | 32.7% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 63.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.7% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 60.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.5% | 17.8% | 1.04 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.0% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 20.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 47.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.1% | 56.5% | 0.28 | 24.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 9.3% | 44.2% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 19.9% | 0.60 | 64.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 56.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 26.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 48.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.6% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 11/3/2025 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| 8/4/2025 | -0.4% | -0.0% | 16.1% |
| 5/5/2025 | 8.0% | 13.8% | 16.8% |
| 2/13/2025 | 6.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -0.5% | 3.6% | 6.1% |
| 8/1/2024 | -13.8% | -10.5% | -3.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | -7.3% | -5.2% | -8.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 3.6% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -6.5% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 13.8% | 52.2% |
| Max Negative | -13.8% | -16.0% | -15.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | 0.22 | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Minimum Future Rental Payments | 9.70 Bil | 2.1% | Raised | Guidance: 9.50 Bil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Udvar-Hazy, Steven F | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 63.99 | 18,000 | 1,151,818 | 90,249,179 | Form | |
| 2 | Udvar-Hazy, Steven F | See footnote | Sell | 12162025 | 64.02 | 64,000 | 4,097,101 | 4,737,273 | Form | |
| 3 | Udvar-Hazy, Steven F | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 64.12 | 19,000 | 1,218,373 | 89,221,206 | Form | |
| 4 | Udvar-Hazy, Steven F | See footnote | Sell | 12162025 | 64.18 | 48,632 | 3,121,234 | 901,738 | Form | |
| 5 | Levy, Grant A | EVP | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 64.30 | 1,000 | 64,300 | 8,822,346 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.