Bioceres Crop Solutions (BIOX)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $1.575 | Market Cap: $98.9 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bioceres Crop Solutions (BIOX)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $1.575Market Cap: $98.9 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 242% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 29% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -29% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Gene Editing, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Gene Editing, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 242% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -29% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
BIOX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the -54.8% stock movement for Bioceres Crop Solutions (BIOX) between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025:
1. Weaker-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 and the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Bioceres Crop Solutions reported a substantial net loss of US$48.0 million for the fourth quarter ended June 30, 2025, and a net loss of US$7.5 million for the fiscal first quarter ended September 30, 2025, both significantly impacting investor confidence.
2. Significant revenue declines falling short of market expectations.
Total revenues for Q4 2025 were US$74.7 million, a 40% year-over-year decrease, and for Q1 2026, total revenues were US$77.5 million, a 17% year-over-year decline and 26.19% below forecasts. These declines were primarily attributed to weaker demand in Argentina and lower HB4-related sales, compounded by a strategic reduction from the seed model transition and the pruning of low-margin products.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BIOX Return | 23% | 128% | -15% | 14% | -56% | -75% | -69% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 49% | 6% | -22% | -3% | -3% | 24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BIOX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 8% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 55% | 40% | 52% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BIOX Max Drawdown | -11% | -1% | -33% | -18% | -56% | -79% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -6% | -13% | -36% | -17% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CF, FMC, IPI, CTVA, NTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BIOX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 669 days | 120 days |
Compare to CF, FMC, IPI, CTVA, NTR
In The Past
Bioceres Crop Solutions's stock fell -41.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -41.0% loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Bioceres Crop Solutions Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BIOX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.3% | 5.3% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | -7.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.3% | 5.3% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.8% | 1.8% | -7.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Bioceres Crop Solutions
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,172 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,265 |
| FCF LTM | 869 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 715 |
| CFO LTM | 1,344 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,026 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.3 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/CFO | 5.5 |
| Total Yield | -2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -22.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -93.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 3312025 | 6202025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 10302024 | 20-F 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5292024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 11142023 | 20-F 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5242023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11292022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10282022 | 20-F 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5272022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11302021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 10292021 | 20-F 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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