Brookfield Renewable (BEPC)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $38.07 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
Brookfield Renewable (BEPC)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $38.07Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 496% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 19x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% | |
| Key risksBEPC key risks include [1] its high debt load and vulnerability to interest rate changes, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 496% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 19x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Key risksBEPC key risks include [1] its high debt load and vulnerability to interest rate changes, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BEPC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock movement of Brookfield Renewable (BEPC) by 14.2% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025, can be attributed to several key developments and positive market sentiment.
1. Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results and Strategic Google Partnership: Brookfield Renewable reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with Funds From Operations (FFO) increasing by 10% year-over-year to $371 million, or $0.56 per unit. This performance was driven by robust operating results across its diverse portfolio. A significant catalyst was the signing of a Hydro Framework Agreement with Google to deliver up to 3,000 MW of hydroelectric capacity in the U.S., positioning Brookfield Renewable as a preferred partner for major technology companies seeking clean power solutions.
2. Positive Analyst Ratings and Price Target Increases: Throughout the period, multiple analyst firms maintained favorable ratings and raised price targets for BEPC. For instance, on October 22, 2025, Barclays maintained an "Equal-Weight" rating but increased its price target to $35.00, a 12.90% increase from the prior target. JPMorgan also raised its price target for BEPC on October 16, 2025, from $41.00 to $44.00, and on September 19, 2025, from $39.00 to $41.00. Morgan Stanley also raised its price target on August 26, 2025, from $38.00 to $39.00. These consistent upgrades signal increasing confidence from financial institutions in the company's future performance and valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BEPC Return | � | � | � | � | � | 42% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 18% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BEPC Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BEPC Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORA, STEM, AGIG, BEPC, CWEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BEPC has limited trading history. Below is the Utilities sector ETF (XLU) in its place.
| Event | XLU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 633 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,058 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BEPC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.0% | 6.0% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.0% | 6.0% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Brookfield Renewable
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,160 |
| Op Inc LTM | 176 |
| FCF LTM | -119 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -39 |
| CFO LTM | 370 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 531 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -17.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -13.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 11.8 |
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/CFO | 11.4 |
| Total Yield | 9.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| D/E | 2.3 |
| Net D/E | 2.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 48.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -34.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 31.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -109.9% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attributable to non-controlling interests and other | 26,392 | 23,368 | 22,327 | 21,820 | 23,459 |
| Hydroelectric | 15,899 | 15,604 | 15,108 | 12,414 | 11,197 |
| Wind | 2,986 | 1,595 | 1,700 | 2,329 | 672 |
| Utility-scale Solar | 2,604 | 1,447 | 1,731 | 1,867 | |
| Distributed energy & sustainable solutions | 1,370 | 1,138 | 1,207 | 633 | |
| Corporate | 392 | 307 | 17 | 9 | 0 |
| Contribution from equity-accounted investments | -222 | -171 | -176 | -173 | -204 |
| Distributed generation, storage & other | 1,279 | ||||
| Total | 49,421 | 43,288 | 41,986 | 39,473 | 35,757 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3012024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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