Stem (STEM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.07 | Market Cap: $151.4 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
Stem (STEM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.07Market Cap: $151.4 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 70%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 66% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -166% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -94 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -57% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 129% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 4599% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1689% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 70%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 66% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -166% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -94 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -57% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 129% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 4599% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1689% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
STEM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Analyst Price Target Suggests Potential Upside. Analysts have set an average price target of $19.60 for Stem, Inc., which implies a potential increase of 13.95% from the closing price of $17.20. The consensus analyst rating for Stem, Inc. is "Hold".
2. Recent Short-Term Stock Gains. As of December 3, 2025, Stem, Inc.'s stock price had gained 0.233% on that day, closing at $17.24, and had increased by 6.62% over the previous two weeks.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STEM Return | - | -7% | -53% | -57% | -84% | 43% | -96% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 1% | -10% | -1% | -9% | 46% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STEM Win Rate | 100% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 28% | 32% | 38% | 37% | 54% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STEM Max Drawdown | - | -20% | -67% | -73% | -92% | -97% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -10% | -24% | -27% | -31% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORA, BEPC, CWEN, FLNC, NRGV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1982.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 148 days |
Compare to ORA, BEPC, CWEN, FLNC, NRGV
In The Past
Stem's stock fell -95.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -95.2% loss requires a 1982.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to STEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stem
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,160 |
| Op Inc LTM | 72 |
| FCF LTM | -149 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -94 |
| CFO LTM | 168 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 149 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -19.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 3.1 |
| P/E | 0.3 |
| P/CFO | 1.3 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -18.9% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 54.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 39.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3052025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |