Stem (STEM)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $4.47 | Market Cap: $40.7 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
Stem (STEM)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $4.47Market Cap: $40.7 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.63, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -27% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 714% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -184% Key risksSTEM key risks include [1] challenges successfully executing its strategic pivot to a software and services-centric model and [2] its ongoing financial instability and uncertain path to consistent profitability. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.63, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -27% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 714% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -184% |
| Key risksSTEM key risks include [1] challenges successfully executing its strategic pivot to a software and services-centric model and [2] its ongoing financial instability and uncertain path to consistent profitability. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Stem (STEM) stock has lost about 55% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Stem (STEM) experienced a significant revenue miss and year-over-year decline in its fiscal Q2 2026. The company reported revenue of $33.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, which represents a 12% decrease compared to $38.4 million in fiscal Q2 2025. This also fell short of analyst consensus estimates of $36.65 million by 8.2%. The decline was primarily driven by substantially reduced battery hardware resales and lower managed services revenue.
2. The company recorded a substantial net loss in fiscal Q2 2026, contrasting sharply with the prior year. Stem reported a net loss of $14.4 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. This compares unfavorably to a net income of $202.5 million reported in fiscal Q2 2025, although the previous year's figure included a one-time gain on extinguishment of debt. While the company did beat EPS estimates, reporting an EPS of -$1.58 against a consensus of -$1.75, the overall net loss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
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Stem (STEM) stock has lost about 55% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Stem (STEM) experienced a significant revenue miss and year-over-year decline in its fiscal Q2 2026. The company reported revenue of $33.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, which represents a 12% decrease compared to $38.4 million in fiscal Q2 2025. This also fell short of analyst consensus estimates of $36.65 million by 8.2%. The decline was primarily driven by substantially reduced battery hardware resales and lower managed services revenue.
2. The company recorded a substantial net loss in fiscal Q2 2026, contrasting sharply with the prior year. Stem reported a net loss of $14.4 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. This compares unfavorably to a net income of $202.5 million reported in fiscal Q2 2025, although the previous year's figure included a one-time gain on extinguishment of debt. While the company did beat EPS estimates, reporting an EPS of -$1.58 against a consensus of -$1.75, the overall net loss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
3. Analyst sentiment and price targets reflected a cautious outlook. As of early September 2026, Wall Street analysts maintained a "Hold" or "Reduce" consensus rating for Stem. The average twelve-month price target was set at $7.45, with a low forecast of $6.75 and a high of $8.00. Notably, Roth Capital lowered its price target for Stem from $11 to $6.75, signaling a more conservative valuation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.0% change in STEM stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.72 | 4.47 | -54.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 153 | 148 | -3.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -49.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | -6.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -54.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STEM | -54.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.3% | 63.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | -7.0% | -9.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.5% change in STEM stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.51 | 4.47 | -57.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 165 | 148 | -10.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -48.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 9 | -8.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -57.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STEM | -57.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 59.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | -12.8% | 3.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -70.5% change in STEM stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -66.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.13 | 4.47 | -70.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 156 | 148 | -5.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.3 | -66.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 9 | -8.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -70.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STEM | -70.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | 52.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 0.1% | 13.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -95.6% change in STEM stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -85.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.80 | 4.47 | -95.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 415 | 148 | -64.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 0.3 | -85.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 9 | -14.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -95.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STEM | -95.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 6.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | 42.7% | 6.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STEM Return | -7% | -53% | -57% | -84% | 25% | -69% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -35% | 15% | -5% | -1% | -11% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STEM Win Rate | 25% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 40% | 50% | 48% | 45% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STEM Max Drawdown | -67% | -67% | -78% | -92% | -98% | -77% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -63% | -53% | -42% | -60% | -49% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FLNC, ENPH, GNRC, TSLA, AMRC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -56.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Stem's stock fell -53.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 117.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | STEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -56.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Stem's stock fell -53.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 117.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Stem (STEM)
Stem, Inc. (STEM) is a leading provider of digitally connected and intelligent energy storage solutions. The company offers complete energy storage systems, sourcing hardware from various original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Its core value proposition lies in combining this hardware with its proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) platform, Athena, which optimizes the operation and performance of these battery storage systems through advanced software and services.
Beyond providing the physical storage systems and their AI-driven management, Stem offers a comprehensive suite of services. These include initial system design and engineering, supply chain management for the hardware, and ongoing optimization of the energy storage value streams. The company also handles critical support functions such as warranty and preventive maintenance planning, detailed operational reporting, and assistance with program enrollment and incentive management, effectively providing an end-to-end solution for energy storage deployment and operation.
Stem primarily serves a broad range of clients who need robust and intelligent energy storage. Its customer base includes commercial and industrial enterprises looking to manage energy costs or enhance resilience, independent power producers, and renewable project developers aiming to integrate and optimize their clean energy assets. Additionally, Stem partners with utilities and grid operators to enhance grid stability, reliability, and efficiency through its distributed energy storage networks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Stem, Inc.:
- Like Palantir for optimizing and managing large-scale energy storage systems with AI.
- Like Google Nest for industrial and utility-scale battery systems, intelligently optimizing their performance and use.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Energy Storage Systems: Physical energy storage units sourced from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
- Athena AI Platform: An artificial intelligence platform offering battery hardware and software-enabled services to operate energy storage systems.
- System Design & Engineering Services: Services for designing and engineering energy storage solutions.
- Supply Chain Management: Services for managing the supply chain of energy storage components and systems.
- Energy Storage Value Stream Optimization: Services focused on optimizing the economic value derived from energy storage assets.
- Warranty & Preventive Maintenance Plan Management: Management services for warranties and preventive maintenance plans for energy storage systems.
- Operation & Maintenance Reporting: Reporting services detailing the operation and maintenance activities of energy storage systems.
- Program Enrollment & Incentive Management: Services assisting with program enrollment and the management of associated incentives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Stem, Inc. (STEM) primarily sells its energy storage systems and AI platform (Athena) to other companies.
Based on the provided background, its major customers are found within the following categories of organizations:
- Commercial and industrial enterprises
- Independent power producers
- Renewable project developers
- Utilities and grid operators
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Samsung SDI Co., Ltd. (KRX: 006400)
- CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) (SZSE: 300750)
- Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (SZSE: 300274)
- Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arun Narayanan, Chief Executive Officer
Arun Narayanan leads Stem's software-forward vision. He has over 27 years of experience in software technology, operations, data, and analytics across various industries, including oil and gas and renewable energy. Prior to joining Stem, Mr. Narayanan served as the CEO of RES Digital Solutions, a division of RES, where he oversaw innovation and the creation of software products designed to accelerate the digital journey for renewables. Before that, he was the Chief Data Officer of Anglo American, where he led the digital strategy to build its industry-leading data analytics platform, VOXEL.
Brian Musfeldt, Chief Financial Officer
Brian Musfeldt manages Stem's corporate and project financing efforts, bringing nearly 30 years of finance and management experience, with a focus on leadership in strategy and operational efficiency in the clean technology and energy industries. Mr. Musfeldt previously served as CFO of AlsoEnergy from 2017 to 2023, and was instrumental in AlsoEnergy's sale to Stem in 2022.
Larsh Johnson, Chief Technology Officer
Larsh Johnson oversees Stem's technological advancements and innovation strategies, with expertise in control systems and mechanical engineering. His professional journey includes co-founding eMeter Corporation, a Bay Area software company that was later acquired by Siemens Digital Grid, where he became Chief Technology Officer. He also co-founded CellNet Data Systems, a pioneer in wireless networks for smart metering and distribution automation, now a unit of Landis+Gyr.
Matt Tappin, President, Software Division
Matt Tappin oversees all of Stem's software and solar efforts, focusing on asset management, economic optimization, and edge devices for energy storage and solar assets. He joined Stem in 2021, coinciding with the company becoming public, to lead corporate development, including mergers and acquisitions (M&A), investments, and joint ventures.
Michael Carlson, Chief Operating Officer
Michael Carlson is responsible for overseeing Stem's day-to-day operations and ensuring operational efficiency. He brings a rich professional background with leadership roles at companies such as Koch Engineered Solutions, Siemens, and General Electric, contributing expertise in finance, operations, and strategic management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Stem, Inc.'s business are primarily centered around its financial stability and ongoing strategic transformation, intense market competition, and external regulatory and supply chain challenges.
1. Financial Instability and Execution Risk of Software-Centric Pivot
Stem, Inc. has a history of incurring net losses and has accumulated a significant deficit, approximately $1,626.5 million as of December 31, 2024. The company is currently undergoing a critical strategic transformation, shifting its business model from a hardware-heavy approach to one focused on software and services. This pivot has resulted in reduced revenues and short-term operational disruptions. For instance, revenue fell sharply in Q3 2024 due to lower battery hardware bookings and a substantial "bad debt expense." The successful execution of this software-first strategy is crucial for achieving consistent positive earnings and growing Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). However, growth in ARR has shown signs of slowing, and the company's cash and cash equivalents have been declining due to sustained net losses, raising concerns about liquidity. Stem also carries high leverage, with an 11% cash interest on new notes creating a significant annual cash interest obligation. The market currently appears to value Stem as a distressed industrial firm rather than a high-margin AI software player, reflecting a "hardware hangover" from its previous model.
2. Intense Market Competition and Pricing Pressures
The energy storage market in which Stem operates is highly dynamic and competitive. Stem faces direct competition from rivals offering similar AI-driven energy storage solutions, as well as from larger energy market players and companies with established grid infrastructure. Vertically integrated competitors, such as Tesla with its Autobidder platform, pose a continuous threat to Stem's third-party software model, particularly in the utility-scale segment. The market is characterized by increasing consumer demand for energy storage systems (ESS) with higher energy density, faster charging capabilities, and extended battery life, necessitating continuous innovation. This intense competition and the need to keep pace with rapid technological advancements can lead to pricing pressures, which could impact Stem's market share and overall profitability.
3. Regulatory, Policy, and Supply Chain Uncertainties
Stem's business is significantly exposed to policy uncertainty and potential fluctuations in governmental support for clean energy incentives. The company also navigates geopolitical challenges, including trade dynamics and tariff negotiations, particularly concerning the supply of key components such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from China. Adherence to a multitude of critical safety and performance standards for energy storage systems is a foremost regulatory challenge; failure to comply can result in costly delays, fines, or market bans. Furthermore, Stem has experienced operational hurdles due to interconnection bottlenecks and protracted interconnection timelines, which have caused project delays. Supply chain constraints for essential components, such as transformers and grid connections, also present ongoing challenges.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for Stem is the increasing trend of major energy storage hardware manufacturers (OEMs) and large industrial conglomerates offering their own vertically integrated, AI-driven energy management platforms and services. This directly competes with Stem's business model of sourcing hardware and providing its Athena AI platform and associated services, potentially leading to a market where a single vendor offers a more cost-effective, tightly integrated, or superior bundled hardware and software solution.AI Analysis | Feedback
Stem, Inc. operates in the rapidly expanding energy storage and artificial intelligence (AI) in energy markets. The addressable markets for its main products and services are substantial both globally and within the United States.
Energy Storage Systems
Stem provides energy storage systems and related services, including design, engineering, supply chain management, and optimization. This encompasses both hardware and software-enabled services.
- Global Energy Storage Systems Market: The global energy storage systems market was estimated at USD 668.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 5.12 trillion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7% from 2025 to 2034.
- U.S. Energy Storage Market: In the United States, the energy storage market was valued at USD 106.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1.49 trillion by 2034, demonstrating a CAGR of 29.1% from 2025 to 2034.
Specific Segments within Energy Storage Systems:
- Global Grid-Scale Stationary Battery Storage Market: This market was estimated at USD 174.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2.96 trillion by 2034, with a CAGR of 30.7% from 2025 to 2034.
- U.S. Grid-Scale Stationary Battery Storage Market: The U.S. grid-scale stationary battery storage market was worth over USD 43.7 billion in 2024.
- Global Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Energy Storage Market: The commercial and industrial energy storage market is estimated at USD 91.99 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 164.23 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.29%.
Athena (Artificial Intelligence Platform)
Stem's Athena platform provides artificial intelligence for battery hardware and software-enabled services to operate energy storage systems, falling under the broader AI in energy management market.
- Global AI in Energy Market: The global AI in energy market reached USD 9.89 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 99.48 billion by 2032, growing with a CAGR of 33.45% during the forecast period of 2025-2032.
- Global AI in Energy Management Market: More specifically, the global AI in energy management market size was valued at USD 5.26 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 20.31 billion by 2033, growing with a CAGR of 16.2% during the forecast period.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Stem, Inc. (STEM) anticipates several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily stemming from its strategic shift towards a software-centric business model and expansion into high-growth market segments:
- Acceleration of the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Business Model with Athena and PowerTrack: Stem is strategically pivoting to a software-first approach, emphasizing its AI-enabled Athena platform and PowerTrack solutions. This shift is designed to capture predictable, higher-margin Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) through accelerated software activations and product launches, such as PowerTrack EMS. The company expects significant gross margin expansion driven by this move away from lower-margin battery hardware resales.
- Expansion into New and Growing Market Segments: Stem is actively expanding its footprint in several lucrative markets. This includes growing its presence in the utility-scale segment by investing in PowerTrack to serve smaller utility-scale customers (20-100 megawatts) and strengthening its dominant position in the public power segment, identified as a rapidly growing area within the large-scale Front-of-the-Meter (FTM) market.
- International Market Expansion, particularly in Europe: The company is expanding its operations internationally, with a notable focus on Europe. The establishment of a Berlin competence center aims to address complex technical challenges in the European market, such as merchant market risk and negative pricing, thereby allowing Stem to charge premium SaaS fees. This expansion supports hybrid solar-plus-storage projects across the EMEA region.
- Growth in Professional Services and Value Stream Optimization: Stem expects revenue growth from its professional services offering. Customers increasingly value Stem's expertise in navigating complex energy markets and leveraging its platform's extensive real-world data to support them throughout the lifecycle of renewable asset projects. The Athena platform's capabilities in energy storage value stream optimization further contribute to this driver.
- Leveraging the Broader Demand for Green Energy and AI: Stem is well-positioned to capitalize on macro trends, including the increasing global demand for green energy driven by decarbonization efforts and the growing role of AI applications. The company's Athena AI platform is central to optimizing energy management, achieving cost savings, and providing grid services, aligning with these significant market shifts.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Stem (STEM)
Share Repurchases
No information available for share repurchases over the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- Stem became publicly listed in April 2021 through a business combination with Star Peak Energy Transition Corp. (SPAC), which generated over $600 million in gross cash proceeds, including a $225 million Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) from institutional investors.
- In June 2025, the company executed a 1-for-20 reverse stock split to regain compliance with NYSE listing requirements, reducing the number of outstanding shares from approximately 167 million to around 8.4 million.
- As of March 2026, Stem initiated an "at-the-market" equity program, enabling the sale of common stock with an aggregate offering price of up to $30 million.
Inbound Investments
- The business combination with Star Peak Energy Transition Corp. in April 2021 provided over $600 million in gross cash proceeds, which included a $225 million PIPE from institutional investors such as BlackRock and Van Eck Associates Corporation.
- The capital raised from the SPAC merger was intended to fund planned growth, advance the Athena software platform, and settle outstanding debts.
Outbound Investments
- In December 2021, Stem acquired AlsoEnergy for an aggregate purchase price of $695 million. This transaction comprised approximately 75% cash and 25% Stem common stock. The acquisition aimed to combine Stem's storage optimization capabilities with AlsoEnergy's solar asset management software.
- Stem has ceased making further investments in DevCo Joint Ventures (JVs) and, as of December 31, 2025, has either sold or written off all associated project assets.
Capital Expenditures
- Stem did not report any material capital investment contributions for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.
- The company is undergoing a strategic shift from capital-intensive hardware resales to an AI-enabled software and services business model.
- This strategic pivot is evidenced by 2025 full-year results, where over 55% of revenue was derived from software and services, with battery hardware resale accounting for $15 million, reflecting a deliberate de-emphasis on lower-margin hardware.
Peer Outperformance in Renewable Electricity
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 5 | -20.6% | 112.7% | 191.0% | HNRG 533% · OKLO 262% · NRG 191% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 6.9% | 44.0% | 46.6% | ATO 106% · NFG 83% · NJR 82% |
| Electric Utilities | 24 | 7.1% | 38.5% | 40.9% | VST 758% · GNE 176% · ETR 122% |
| Multi-Utilities | 18 | 8.0% | 37.8% | 40.4% | NI 99% · MDU 94% · CNP 78% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 11.4% | 3.9% | -8.3% | CWCO 166% · AWR 12% · HTO 10% |
| Renewable Electricity ← | 5 | -24.2% | -63.6% | -94.5% | ORA 38% · CWEN 23% · AGIG -94% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Stem Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| null | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,328 |
| Op Inc LTM | 129 |
| FCF LTM | 80 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 125 |
| CFO LTM | 108 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 155 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -21.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge hardware | 54 | 45 | 39 | ||
| PowerTrack software | 38 | 33 | 29 | ||
| Managed services | 30 | 23 | 25 | ||
| Project and professional services & other | 20 | 12 | 8 | ||
| Battery hardware resale | 15 | 31 | 360 | ||
| Innovative technology services that transform the way energy is distributed and consumed | 363 | ||||
| Hardware revenue | 107 | ||||
| Services and other revenue | 20 | ||||
| Total | 156 | 145 | 462 | 363 | 127 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Innovative technology services that transform the way energy is distributed and consumed | -854 | -124 |
| Total | -854 | -124 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.47 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/08/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -85.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.75 | $10.58 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -22.3% | -57.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.3% | 96.5% |
| Downside Capture | 490.99 | 548.96 |
| Upside Capture | 156.55 | 311.06 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 54.1% | 52.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.00 | 3.94 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 4.01 | 4.25 |
| Up Beta | 4.67 | 5.16 | 3.93 | 3.88 | 3.03 | 3.58 |
| Down Beta | 1.94 | 2.60 | 3.91 | 3.07 | 4.45 | 2.47 |
| Up Capture | 374% | 224% | 255% | 410% | 1046% | 1450% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 18 | 29 | 58 | 114 | 330 |
| Down Capture | 410% | 470% | 353% | 275% | 198% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 35 | 69 | 134 | 406 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEM | -70.7% | 96.7% | -0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -1.5% | 15.2% | -0.31 | 13.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 12.8% | 0.82 | 52.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 29.3% | 0.50 | 18.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.3% | 20.7% | 1.76 | -6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.5% | 0.10 | 10.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.6% | 43.9% | -0.84 | 36.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEM | -61.9% | 761.3% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 6.5% | 17.3% | 0.23 | 5.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.54 | 7.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 19.6% | 0.46 | -7.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.5% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 7.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 5.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STEM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEM | -32.8% | 702.1% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.4% | 19.3% | 0.37 | 5.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 7.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.3% | 0.59 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 18.1% | 0.39 | -6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 7.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.0% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 4.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -20.0% | -17.6% | -29.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | 21.2% | 5.9% | -13.8% |
| 10/29/2025 | -26.7% | -15.2% | -27.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.2% | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 30.3% | 20.6% | 11.5% |
| 3/4/2025 | 13.1% | -11.0% | -25.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -21.6% | -18.9% | -18.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | -40.8% | -47.3% | -54.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 12.7% | 13.4% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -20.8% | -17.6% | -22.0% |
| Max Positive | 30.3% | 20.6% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -40.8% | -47.3% | -54.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -20.0% | -17.6% | -29.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | 21.2% | 5.9% | -13.8% |
| 10/29/2025 | -26.7% | -15.2% | -27.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.2% | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 30.3% | 20.6% | 11.5% |
| 3/4/2025 | 13.1% | -11.0% | -25.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -21.6% | -18.9% | -18.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | -40.8% | -47.3% | -54.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | -28.8% | -29.8% | -30.4% |
| 2/28/2024 | -1.8% | -18.3% | -19.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.3% | -11.6% | 2.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | 2.1% | -9.0% | -24.3% |
| 5/4/2023 | 12.7% | 14.2% | 41.0% |
| 2/16/2023 | -14.8% | -19.7% | -34.7% |
| 11/3/2022 | -0.2% | 12.6% | -6.8% |
| 5/5/2022 | 15.1% | -15.2% | 21.2% |
| 2/24/2022 | -21.6% | -24.6% | -3.1% |
| 11/9/2021 | 7.7% | 8.0% | -13.9% |
| 8/11/2021 | -9.7% | -15.7% | -16.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 12.7% | 13.4% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -20.8% | -17.6% | -22.0% |
| Max Positive | 30.3% | 20.6% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -40.8% | -47.3% | -54.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/17/2021 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/15/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 0 | 5.00 Mil | 10.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Year end ARR | Reported | 65.00 Mil | 67.50 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 67.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 140.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 165.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Software, services, & edge hardware revenue | Reported | 130.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 140.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Battery hardware resale revenue | Reported | 40.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 56.00 Mil | 74.25 Mil | 95.00 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 40.0% | 45.0% | 50.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 45.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 10.00 Mil | 12.50 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 0 | 5.00 Mil | 10.00 Mil | Higher New | Actual: 0 for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Year-end ARR | Reported | 65.00 Mil | 67.50 Mil | 70.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 ARR Growth | Reported | 10.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 140.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | 11.9% | Higher New | Actual: 147.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Software, edge hardware, & services Revenue | Reported | 130.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 5.7% | Higher New | Actual: 132.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Battery hardware resale Revenue | Reported | 40.00 Mil | 100.0% | Higher New | Actual: 20.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 56.00 Mil | 74.25 Mil | 95.00 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 40.0% | 45.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 45.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 10.00 Mil | 12.50 Mil | 15.00 Mil | Higher New | Actual: 0 for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 85.0% | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | -5.00 Mil | 0 | 5.00 Mil | -100.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 7.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 135.00 Mil | 147.50 Mil | 160.00 Mil | -1.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 150.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Software, edge hardware, & services revenue | Reported | 125.00 Mil | 132.50 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 130.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Battery hardware resale revenue | Reported | 20.00 Mil | -42.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Gross Profit | Calculated | 54.00 Mil | 66.38 Mil | 80.00 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2025 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 40.0% | 45.0% | 50.0% | 10.0% | Raised | Guidance: 35.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -5.00 Mil | 0 | 5.00 Mil | Raised | Guidance: -2.50 Mil for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Musfeldt, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 6.11 | 996 | 6,086 | 14,536 | Form |
| 2 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 996 | 7,819 | 75,179 | Form |
| 3 | Carlson, Michael James | President, Managed Services | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 1,347 | 10,574 | 203,009 | Form |
| 4 | Narayanan, Arun | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 1,996 | 15,669 | 150,006 | Form |
| 5 | Laureles, Saul R | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 675 | 5,299 | 271,021 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Musfeldt, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 6.11 | 996 | 6,086 | 14,536 | Form |
| 2 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 996 | 7,819 | 75,179 | Form |
| 3 | Carlson, Michael James | President, Managed Services | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 1,347 | 10,574 | 203,009 | Form |
| 4 | Narayanan, Arun | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 1,996 | 15,669 | 150,006 | Form |
| 5 | Laureles, Saul R | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 7.85 | 675 | 5,299 | 271,021 | Form |
| 6 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 10.83 | 402 | 4,354 | 30,573 | Form |
| 7 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 11.12 | 655 | 7,284 | 35,862 | Form |
| 8 | Laureles, Saul R | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 11.12 | 942 | 10,475 | 305,244 | Form |
| 9 | Carlson, Michael James | President, Managed Services | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 11.12 | 2,079 | 23,118 | 216,373 | Form |
| 10 | Narayanan, Arun | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 11.12 | 5,145 | 57,212 | 144,338 | Form |
| 11 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 10.00 | 185 | 1,850 | 24,220 | Form |
| 12 | Laureles, Saul R | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 9.67 | 292 | 2,824 | 246,353 | Form |
| 13 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 9.67 | 300 | 2,901 | 25,210 | Form |
| 14 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 11.40 | 366 | 4,172 | 25,502 | Form |
| 15 | Tappin, Matthew | President, Software Products | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 17.70 | 9,584 | 169,637 | 33,134 | Form |
| 16 | Shukla, Rahul | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 16.21 | 3,674 | Form |
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Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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