Bridger Aerospace (BAER)
Market Price (5/21/2026): $1.96 | Market Cap: $108.4 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services
Bridger Aerospace (BAER)
Market Price (5/21/2026): $1.96Market Cap: $108.4 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Security & Alarm Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 225% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -46% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -62% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% Key risksBAER key risks include [1] a heavy, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 225% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -46% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -62% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
| Key risksBAER key risks include [1] a heavy, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Significant Revenue Decline and Wider Losses in Q1 2026.
Bridger Aerospace reported a substantial decrease in revenue, falling 46% to $8.5 million in the first quarter of 2026 from $15.6 million in Q1 2025. This was attributed to the seasonal nature of its business, with Q1 typically experiencing lower wildfire activity, and the absence of non-recurring "Spanish Scooper return-to-service work" and early fire deployments that boosted revenue in the prior year. Concurrently, the company's net loss more than doubled to $31.3 million (or $0.69 per share) in Q1 2026 from $15.5 million (or $0.41 per share) in Q1 2025, with Adjusted EBITDA loss also increasing to $14.5 million from $5.1 million.
2. Increased Operating Expenses.
The company experienced a significant rise in Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses, which surged to $16.7 million in Q1 2026 from $8.6 million in Q1 2025. This increase was primarily driven by higher non-cash stock-based compensation expenses, an increase in the fair value of warrants, and elevated workforce costs, contributing to the widened net and Adjusted EBITDA losses.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.3% change in BAER stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.88 | 1.95 | -32.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 130 | 116 | -10.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 0.9 | -23.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 55 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAER | -32.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.4% | 51.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.5% | 57.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.4% change in BAER stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.72 | 1.95 | 13.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 126 | 116 | -8.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 0.9 | 27.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 55 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAER | 13.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.3% | 37.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.8% | 40.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.5% change in BAER stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.45 | 1.95 | 34.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 99 | 116 | 17.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.9 | 19.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 55 | -3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAER | 34.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 35.2% | 34.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 31.9% | 36.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -56.5% change in BAER stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.48 | 1.95 | -56.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 46 | 116 | 149.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.2 | 0.9 | -78.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 55 | -20.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -56.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAER | -56.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.2% | 17.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 78.5% | 20.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BAER Return | 1% | 4% | -32% | -69% | -14% | -9% | -83% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -15% | 36% | 25% | 10% | 8% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BAER Win Rate | 60% | 83% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 46% | 71% | 48% | 48% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BAER Max Drawdown | - | -1% | -83% | -74% | -69% | -49% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -40% | -31% | -34% | -30% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BCO, MG, NL, CIX, DETX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BAER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Bridger Aerospace's stock fell -51.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 104.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | BAER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Bridger Aerospace's stock fell -51.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 104.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Bridger Aerospace (BAER)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Bridger Aerospace (BAER):
The 'AAA' (American Automobile Association) for wildfires.
Ryder for aerial firefighting.
Waste Management for aerial wildfire suppression.
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- Fire Suppression Services: Provides direct aerial support for ground crews by dropping large amounts of water quickly and directly on wildfires.
- Aerial Surveillance Services: Offers overhead reconnaissance and tactical coordination for incident commanders using both manned and unmanned aircraft.
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Major Customers of Bridger Aerospace (BAER)
Bridger Aerospace (BAER) primarily provides aerial wildfire management, relief and suppression, and firefighting services to federal and state government agencies in the United States. These government entities are its major customers.
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- De Havilland Canada
- Pratt & Whitney Canada (parent company RTX Corporation, Symbol: RTX)
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Sam Davis, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Davis has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Bridger Aerospace since March 2025, after joining the company in 2019 as Controller and later serving as Chief of Staff and Interim Chief Executive Officer from July 2024. He was instrumental in guiding the company's transition to a public entity through a de-SPAC transaction and facilitated multiple capital raises during its expansion. Prior to Bridger Aerospace, Mr. Davis spent four years at Oracle, Inc., leading global projects for Cloud initiatives, and held roles at Meltwater and Natus Medical, Inc., focusing on financial consolidation, reporting, and global financial management.
Anne Hayes, Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Hayes has been the Chief Financial Officer of Bridger Aerospace since March 2026, having previously served as Deputy Chief Financial Officer since November 2025. She also served on the company's Board of Directors from September 2023 to November 2025, where she chaired the Audit Committee. Ms. Hayes possesses over 20 years of experience in private equity and venture capital, including her most recent role as Director at Quadrant Capital Advisors from 2008 to 2025. A Certified Public Accountant, she has held CFO positions at several private companies.
Adolphus “Bill” Andrews, Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Andrews was appointed Chief Operating Officer in March 2026, bringing over three decades of aerospace and aviation leadership expertise. Before joining Bridger Aerospace, he was Vice President, Executive Program Manager for Domestic Mobility Programs at Lockheed Martin, where he managed a $2 billion portfolio covering C-130, C-5, and P-3 aircraft programs. He also directed Field Operations, supporting aircraft across numerous global bases. Mr. Andrews is a veteran of the U.S. Air Force and Air National Guard, where he served as a C-130 Evaluator Pilot and Aircraft Commander, participating in combat, humanitarian, and firefighting missions.
James Muchmore, Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice President
Mr. Muchmore has served as Bridger Aerospace's Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice President since 2017. From 2014 to 2016, he was General Counsel for Emerald Oil, Inc. Prior to that, from 2000 to 2014, Mr. Muchmore was in private legal practice, specializing in securities transactions, mergers and acquisitions, and public and private offerings across various industries.
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The key risks to Bridger Aerospace (BAER) are:- Financial Health and Capital Structure: Bridger Aerospace faces significant financial challenges, including substantial debt (approximately $200 million with high interest rates) and preferred share capital (around $400 million accruing 7% interest annually), which result in considerable financial losses for common shareholders. The company has reported net losses in recent periods, despite seasonal profits, with concerns raised about its ability to cover interest payments on debt and meet capital costs. Additionally, Bridger Aerospace has been noted to have less than one year of cash runway, indicating potential liquidity issues.
- Dependence on Unpredictable Wildfire Seasons: The company's revenues are highly reliant on the intensity and duration of wildfire seasons, which are inherently unpredictable and influenced by external factors such as weather patterns and climate variability. More than 75% of Bridger Aerospace's revenues are derived from fire suppression services, leading to significant seasonality in its business operations and revenue generation. This dependence creates considerable revenue volatility and operational challenges, as earnings are typically higher during peak wildfire seasons (Q2 and Q3) and lower or negative during off-seasons (Q1 and Q4) when fleet maintenance occurs.
- Customer Concentration and Government Contracting Risks: Bridger Aerospace exhibits significant customer concentration, with sales to its largest customer accounting for 61% of total revenues in 2024, and three customers collectively representing 72% of trade accounts receivable. This concentration exposes the company to considerable risk from adverse changes in the financial condition of these key customers, pressure for lower prices, extended payment terms, and the potential loss of major contracts. As a provider of services to federal and state government agencies, Bridger Aerospace is also vulnerable to changes in government policies, funding levels, and budgetary priorities related to wildfire management, which can impact its contract opportunities and profitability.
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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) operates within the U.S. aerial wildfire management, firefighting, and aerial surveillance markets. For its aerial wildfire management and firefighting services, the addressable market in the U.S. is substantial. The U.S. Firefighting Aircraft Market was valued at approximately USD 2.69 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 4.21 billion by 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.58% from 2026 to 2035. This market includes the deployment and use of aircraft for firefighting operations. Additionally, federal government spending highlights the market's scale, with the U.S. Forest Service alone expected to spend $2.4 billion on leasing helicopters for wildfire purposes. In the realm of aerial surveillance services, Bridger Aerospace addresses a significant market within the United States. The U.S. airborne surveillance market was estimated at USD 2.26 billion in North America in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 2.043 billion in the U.S. by 2026. This market encompasses both manned and unmanned systems, aligning with Bridger Aerospace's use of both types of aircraft for aerial surveillance. The military and government segment held a major share of 63.30% in the airborne surveillance market in 2026, indicating a strong demand from the government agencies that Bridger Aerospace serves.AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Fleet Expansion: Bridger Aerospace has actively expanded its aircraft fleet, which directly increases its operational capacity and ability to secure more contracts. In December 2025, the company completed the purchase of two additional Canadair CL-215T Amphibious Aircraft (Super Scoopers), growing its Super Scooper fleet to eight. Furthermore, it added four Air Attack aircraft in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing its total fleet to 19 aircraft. This expansion positions the company for increased mission capability and expanded contract awards for the 2026 fire season and beyond.
- Securing New and Expanded Government Contracts: The company has demonstrated a consistent ability to win significant government contracts. Notably, Bridger Aerospace secured a five-year multiple-award Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract in March 2026 to provide on-call fixed-wing transportation services in Alaska for the U.S. Department of Interior and other federal agencies, with an estimated value of $18.6 million from April 2026 through March 2031. This contract is anticipated to increase the utilization of its expanded light fixed-wing fleet. In 2023, the company also secured a 5-year, $60 million exclusive use fire surveillance and technology contract with the Department of the Interior and a 10-year, up to $166 million air attack contract with the U.S. Forest Service. Management's ongoing strategy is to pursue additional multi-year exclusive contracts to enhance revenue stability and resilience.
- Increased Aircraft Utilization Due to Evolving Wildfire Seasons: Bridger Aerospace is benefiting from a trend toward earlier and potentially year-round wildfire activity. The earliest deployment of Super Scoopers in January 2025 and continued operations into November for multiple aircraft highlight the extended and intensified wildfire seasons, reinforcing the trend of year-round activity. This leads to higher utilization rates for their existing and expanded fleet, maximizing revenue generation from their assets.
- International Market Expansion: The company has initiated significant steps into international markets. This includes deploying aerial firefighting operations into Canada and establishing a Spanish subsidiary, Albacete Aero, along with acquiring a hangar in Spain. Bridger Aerospace also formed a joint venture to acquire four Spanish Super Scoopers. The return-to-service work for these Spanish Super Scoopers contributed to 2024 revenue, and their introduction, along with multi-mission aircraft, is projected to drive substantial growth in 2026, with new international aircraft contributing an estimated 10-15% of revenue.
- Development and Integration of High-Margin Technology and MRO Services: Bridger Aerospace's acquisition and full integration of Ignis Technologies aim to enhance its fire surveillance intelligence SaaS platform, improving situational awareness for firefighting units. The company emphasizes the high demand for technology-enhanced platforms, which are expected to create high-margin business opportunities. Additionally, its Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) services, particularly for return-to-service upgrades of the Spanish Super Scoopers, represent another avenue for revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. went public on January 25, 2023, through a business combination with Jack Creek Investment Corp., with its common stock and warrants beginning to trade on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker symbols “BAER” and “BAERW” respectively.
- As of March 3, 2026, there were 55,923,319 shares of Common Stock, $0.0001 par value, issued and outstanding.
- A director of Bridger Aerospace received 100,000 shares of Common Stock on March 9, 2026, through a Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) award.
Inbound Investments
- Bridger Aerospace completed a business combination with Jack Creek Investment Corp. in January 2023, valuing Bridger at $869 million on a pro forma enterprise basis.
- Bridger was expected to receive up to approximately $345 million in cash from the SPAC merger, less any redemptions by Jack Creek shareholders.
- In October 2025, Bridger Aerospace announced a $331.5 million financing package led by Bain Capital, which included debt refinancing, a $100 million delayed draw facility for fleet expansion, and a sale-leaseback of its Bozeman campus.
Capital Expenditures
- In late 2025 and January 2026, Bridger Aerospace expanded its operational fleet by acquiring two Canadair CL-215T amphibious firefighting aircraft for approximately $50 million, and four additional air attack aircraft.
- The $331.5 million financing package completed in late 2025 included a $100 million delayed draw facility specifically to fund strategic fleet expansion and accelerate aircraft acquisition.
- Anticipated investments in additional aircraft are expected to support the projected growth in 2026, with management aiming to maximize the use of existing aircraft while seeking opportunities to expand capacity.
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 159 |
| Op Inc LTM | 17 |
| FCF LTM | 2 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6 |
| CFO LTM | 18 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -24.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 14.3 |
| P/CFO | 13.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.99 | $2.04 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.8% | -4.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 74.2% | 74.0% |
| Downside Capture | 407.81 | 210.44 |
| Upside Capture | 189.97 | 185.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.9% | 31.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.20 | 2.47 | 2.41 | 1.96 | 1.97 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | 3.59 | 2.86 | 3.32 | 2.58 | 2.62 | 1.41 |
| Down Beta | 2.56 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.23 | 1.47 | 0.63 |
| Up Capture | 195% | 201% | 141% | 285% | 268% | 32% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 19 | 26 | 56 | 110 | 342 |
| Down Capture | 351% | 296% | 279% | 155% | 150% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 24 | 37 | 62 | 125 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAER | 31.2% | 74.0% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.0% | 15.5% | 0.98 | 34.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.2% | 12.1% | 1.62 | 31.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.2% | 26.8% | 1.24 | 14.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.2% | 18.7% | 1.89 | -8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.1% | 13.4% | 0.54 | 21.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.4% | 41.8% | -0.65 | 20.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAER | -38.7% | 86.4% | -0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.4% | 0.55 | 11.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.0% | 0.65 | 8.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.5% | 18.0% | 0.89 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.1% | 19.4% | 0.46 | -0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 3.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.1% | 55.6% | 0.37 | 4.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAER | -21.7% | 85.0% | -0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 11.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 8.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.1% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 17.9% | 0.36 | -0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 3.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 4.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/5/2026 | -5.8% | -12.4% | -9.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.6% | 17.4% | 9.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -8.3% | 2.4% | -3.9% |
| 3/13/2025 | 4.9% | -12.6% | -9.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 4.9% | -14.3% | -32.3% |
| 8/12/2024 | -3.9% | -4.2% | -20.4% |
| 3/19/2024 | -10.0% | -8.4% | -9.5% |
| 11/13/2023 | -11.1% | -8.6% | 7.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 6.5% | 9.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -8.6% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 17.4% | 12.0% |
| Max Negative | -11.1% | -14.3% | -32.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 04/19/2023 | 424B3 |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/20/2022 | DEFM14A |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 135.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 140.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 55.00 Mil | 57.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 57.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 135.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 16.7% | Higher New | Actual: 120.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 55.00 Mil | 57.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 27.8% | Higher New | Actual: 45.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelter, Jeffrey E | Direct | Buy | 12042025 | 1.80 | 100,000 | 180,070 | 1,311,313 | Form | |
| 2 | Kelter, Jeffrey E | K5 Equity Capital Holdings, LLC | Buy | 12042025 | 1.80 | 100,000 | 180,070 | 543,847 | Form | |
| 3 | Kelter, Jeffrey E | Windy Point Investments LLC | Buy | 12042025 | 1.80 | 100,000 | 180,070 | 1,130,479 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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