Tearsheet

Bridger Aerospace (BAER)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.85 | Market Cap: $99.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services

Bridger Aerospace (BAER)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.85
Market Cap: $99.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Security & Alarm Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BAER Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The provided search results contain information about Bridger Aerospace (BAER) in 2025, including stock forecasts, analyst ratings, and news releases for events scheduled or reported in 2025. This includes financial results for Q4 2024 (released March 2025) and Q3 2025 (released November 2025), as well as news about securing financing and executive changes. Crucially, some results even provide historical stock prices up to December 1, 2025, and a short-term forecast up to December 29, 2025. The request asks for reasons why the stock moved by -9.4% between 8/31/2025 and "today" (December 4, 2025). The search results indicate that BAER's stock was trading at $1.81 on November 28, 2025 and $1.68 on December 1, 2025, showing a decrease. Some forecasts predict a -25% change over the next month from November 30, 2025, and a potential rise of 10.32% by December 29, 2025. However, no direct explanation for a -9.4% drop for the exact requested period is immediately obvious as a single event. Let's synthesize the information to identify potential key points that *could* contribute to a negative movement around this period, keeping in mind that the exact -9.4% over the precise future period is not explicitly stated as a single event. I need to look for actual reported events and short-term trends within the specified window. Based on the available information:

1. Bridger Aerospace announced a CFO retirement and succession plan on November 21, 2025. This news, including the appointment of Anne Hayes as Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Ernie Freedman to the Board of Directors, occurred within the specified timeframe and could have influenced investor sentiment.

2. Short-selling activity in early December 2025 indicated that short sellers may be anticipating further declines for BAER. The short sale ratio of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc (BAER) as of December 1, 2025, was 18.55%, rising from the last trading day, with an increasing price from $1.81 to $1.68.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BAER Return--4%-32%-69%-22%-83%
Peers Return-7%24%-10%24%21%8%68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BAER Win Rate-67%83%50%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%57%47%65%47%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BAER Max Drawdown---1%-64%-74%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-10%-29%-17%-9%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBAERS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-83.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven501.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT


In The Past

Bridger Aerospace's stock fell -83.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2023. A -83.4% loss requires a 501.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Bridger Aerospace (BAER)

Better Bets than Bridger Aerospace (BAER)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BAER. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Bridger Aerospace

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BAERBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameBridger .Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
Mkt Price1.84118.3011.825.5822.318.149.98
Mkt Cap0.15.00.40.30.36.70.3
Rev LTM1265,1467151591595,113437
Op Inc LTM215064740221,30644
FCF LTM11418-0-27151,38713
FCF 3Y Avg-30347713211,16317
CFO LTM1963627-23181,97023
CFO 3Y Avg-115583115231,87327

Growth & Margins

BAERBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameBridger .Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
Rev Chg LTM72.7%3.1%-3.2%5.5%5.5%6.3%5.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.1%1.3%-0.3%-0.3%3.4%1.3%
Rev Chg Q136.3%6.1%7.0%18.7%18.7%4.4%12.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM16.3%1.5%1.8%4.1%4.1%1.1%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM16.4%9.8%6.6%25.1%13.7%25.5%15.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-51.4%9.9%5.1%12.1%13.9%26.1%11.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM6.8%0.5%1.2%-0.4%0.4%-0.5%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM14.8%12.4%3.7%-14.6%11.4%38.5%11.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-33.6%11.2%4.3%9.8%14.7%40.1%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM8.9%8.1%-0.0%-16.8%9.3%27.1%8.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-69.6%7.0%1.0%8.4%13.3%24.7%7.7%

Valuation

BAERBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameBridger .Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
Mkt Cap0.15.00.40.30.36.70.3
P/S0.81.00.41.91.81.41.2
P/EBIT4.69.28.119.613.25.68.6
P/E-142.628.817.131.014.911.116.0
P/CFO5.67.711.7-12.915.93.66.6
Total Yield-0.7%3.5%5.8%12.3%8.0%11.7%6.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%9.1%1.3%2.7%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.2%8.2%2.7%4.5%7.1%18.2%5.8%
D/E2.00.90.80.00.01.10.8
Net D/E1.90.60.7-0.3-0.21.10.6

Returns

BAERBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameBridger .Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
1M Rtn14.3%7.0%23.3%-3.8%2.7%-7.4%4.9%
3M Rtn-9.4%5.3%24.9%-11.3%-4.6%-5.5%-5.1%
6M Rtn1.1%42.7%54.7%-12.9%0.4%-4.1%0.8%
12M Rtn-30.3%25.9%30.6%-25.6%-12.2%11.3%-0.4%
3Y Rtn-81.7%106.2%203.1%2.1%51.9%-9.8%27.0%
1M Excs Rtn14.3%7.0%23.3%-3.8%2.8%-7.4%4.9%
3M Excs Rtn-11.0%-1.1%15.4%-18.7%-10.8%-13.1%-10.9%
6M Excs Rtn-13.6%28.0%40.0%-27.6%-14.3%-18.8%-14.0%
12M Excs Rtn-46.6%10.1%13.4%-36.8%-25.7%-3.7%-14.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-154.5%32.4%124.2%-72.4%-24.9%-76.1%-48.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity826,348
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-40.8%
Average Daily Volume542,589
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.52
Basic Shares Quantity53,878,966
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024314202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023320202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023512202310-Q 3/31/2023
123120224192023424B3 12/31/2022
1231202112202022DEFM14A 12/31/2021