Bridger Aerospace (BAER)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.85 | Market Cap: $99.7 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services
Bridger Aerospace (BAER)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.85Market Cap: $99.7 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Security & Alarm Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BAER Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The provided search results contain information about Bridger Aerospace (BAER) in 2025, including stock forecasts, analyst ratings, and news releases for events scheduled or reported in 2025. This includes financial results for Q4 2024 (released March 2025) and Q3 2025 (released November 2025), as well as news about securing financing and executive changes. Crucially, some results even provide historical stock prices up to December 1, 2025, and a short-term forecast up to December 29, 2025.
The request asks for reasons why the stock moved by -9.4% between 8/31/2025 and "today" (December 4, 2025). The search results indicate that BAER's stock was trading at $1.81 on November 28, 2025 and $1.68 on December 1, 2025, showing a decrease. Some forecasts predict a -25% change over the next month from November 30, 2025, and a potential rise of 10.32% by December 29, 2025. However, no direct explanation for a -9.4% drop for the exact requested period is immediately obvious as a single event.
Let's synthesize the information to identify potential key points that *could* contribute to a negative movement around this period, keeping in mind that the exact -9.4% over the precise future period is not explicitly stated as a single event. I need to look for actual reported events and short-term trends within the specified window.
Based on the available information:
1. Bridger Aerospace announced a CFO retirement and succession plan on November 21, 2025. This news, including the appointment of Anne Hayes as Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Ernie Freedman to the Board of Directors, occurred within the specified timeframe and could have influenced investor sentiment.
2. Short-selling activity in early December 2025 indicated that short sellers may be anticipating further declines for BAER. The short sale ratio of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc (BAER) as of December 1, 2025, was 18.55%, rising from the last trading day, with an increasing price from $1.81 to $1.68.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BAER Return | - | - | 4% | -32% | -69% | -22% | -83% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 24% | -10% | 24% | 21% | 8% | 68% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BAER Win Rate | - | 67% | 83% | 50% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 57% | 47% | 65% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BAER Max Drawdown | - | - | -1% | -64% | -74% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -10% | -29% | -17% | -9% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BAER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 501.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT
In The Past
Bridger Aerospace's stock fell -83.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2023. A -83.4% loss requires a 501.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BAER. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Bridger Aerospace
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 437 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | 13 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 17 |
| CFO LTM | 23 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 27 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4192023 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 12202022 | DEFM14A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |