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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 230%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72%
3 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
3 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x
7 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 230%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AUGO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Aura Minerals (AUGO) experienced a 45.8% stock movement between July 31, 2025, and November 18, 2025, driven by several key factors: 1. Record-High Q3 2025 Production and Financial Performance.

Aura Minerals announced record production of 74,227 gold equivalent ounces (GEO) at constant prices in Q3 2025, a 17% increase from Q2 2025 and 15% above Q3 2024. The company also reported an all-time high Adjusted EBITDA of US$152 million, marking a 95% increase compared to Q3 2024, and recurring free cash flow of US$115 million, up 91% from the previous quarter. This strong financial performance was further highlighted by a reported Q3 net income of $5.6 million, reversing a loss from the prior year, with adjusted earnings of 84 cents per share and revenues of $247.8 million. 2. Successful Start of Commercial Production at Borborema.

The Borborema mine successfully commenced commercial production in September 2025, on time and on budget, with zero Lost Time Incidents. This new operation is anticipated to be one of the company's largest and lowest cash cost operations and contributed over 10,000 ounces in Q3 with a recovery rate above 92%. The commencement of operations at Borborema also helped decrease the All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) by 4% compared to Q2 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AUGO Return811%-18%-23%26%79%210%3947%
Peers Return38%-9%-6%-3%-0%88%111%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AUGO Win Rate75%42%50%50%67%80% 
Peers Win Rate37%35%38%40%37%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AUGO Max Drawdown0%-23%-41%-2%-13%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-22%-26%-19%-17%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAUGOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven191.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven931 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven87 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss394.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven-79.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM


In The Past

Aura Minerals's stock fell -65.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/24/2021. A -65.7% loss requires a 191.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Aura Minerals (AUGO)

Better Bets than Aura Minerals (AUGO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AUGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.6%-1.6%-1.6%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.1%-25.1%-25.2%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.3%5.3%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%-7.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.6%-1.6%-1.6%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.1%-25.1%-25.2%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
5.3%5.3%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%-7.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aura Minerals

Financials

AUGOBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAura Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Price34.6436.96195.128.241.5487.0935.80
Mkt Cap2.863.437.62.5-95.537.6
Rev LTM77213,8241,5461,352-21,5031,546
Op Inc LTM3555,3511,069426-9,3591,069
FCF LTM80--856226-6,122153
FCF 3Y Avg59--16124-2,63692
CFO LTM280-1,310455-9,224883
CFO 3Y Avg205-1,056339-5,616698

Growth & Margins

AUGOBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAura Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Rev Chg LTM41.1%16.9%41.1%68.1%-26.6%41.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg25.9%5.9%7.7%26.7%-23.9%23.9%
Rev Chg Q58.7%16.4%76.9%38.3%-20.0%38.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM13.5%3.9%15.9%5.4%-4.5%5.4%
Op Mgn LTM46.0%38.7%69.1%31.5%-43.5%43.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg31.1%29.4%64.1%22.0%-23.9%29.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.7%3.2%0.8%2.9%-4.5%3.2%
CFO/Rev LTM36.3%-84.7%33.7%-42.9%39.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.7%-81.3%35.4%-32.6%35.6%
FCF/Rev LTM10.3%--55.4%16.7%-28.5%13.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.8%-4.6%11.7%-13.8%10.7%

Valuation

AUGOBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAura Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Cap2.863.437.62.5-95.537.6
P/S3.74.624.31.9-4.44.4
P/EBIT28.511.132.15.4-9.211.1
P/E-66.122.940.911.0-13.313.3
P/CFO10.1-28.75.6-10.410.2
Total Yield0.7%5.2%2.8%9.1%-8.7%5.2%
Dividend Yield2.2%0.8%0.4%0.0%-1.2%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%-0.4%6.2%-3.6%4.4%
D/E0.20.00.00.1-0.10.1
Net D/E0.00.0-0.0-0.1--0.0-0.0

Returns

AUGOBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAura Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
1M Rtn-4.2%10.9%-4.2%-5.3%-41.4%-4.1%-4.2%
3M Rtn23.8%53.2%11.0%14.4%-45.2%26.6%19.1%
6M Rtn89.6%105.3%21.0%48.7%-72.4%72.4%
12M Rtn230.4%127.0%72.9%76.1%-117.0%117.0%
3Y Rtn664.1%154.7%45.1%138.8%-111.1%138.8%
1M Excs Rtn-4.3%10.8%-4.3%-5.4%-41.6%-4.2%-4.3%
3M Excs Rtn24.8%51.0%8.7%14.8%-48.9%25.6%19.8%
6M Excs Rtn77.7%93.4%9.1%36.9%-60.5%60.5%
12M Excs Rtn222.7%113.6%62.5%70.0%-104.0%104.0%
3Y Excs Rtn427.0%73.5%-24.4%68.8%-36.7%68.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aranzazu Mine1771641518871
Minosa Mine1221091559580
Apoena Mine8412011811576
Almas Mine3400  
Corporate000  
Projects00   
Matupa & Tolda Fria Projects  0  
Gold Road   2 
Total417393424300226


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aranzazu Mine5855612112
Minosa Mine2920743818
Apoena Mine93233518
Almas Mine6-3-0  
Projects-6-4   
Corporate-10-13-11-11-7
Matupa & Tolda Fria Projects  -0  
Almas, Matupa & Tolda Fria Projects   -1-0
Gold Road   -1 
Total87881569731


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aranzazu Mine4345361025
Minosa Mine151846249
Almas Mine11-6-3  
Projects-4-4   
Apoena Mine-41723550
Corporate-29-14-9-15-8
Matupa & Tolda Fria Projects  -0  
Almas, Matupa & Tolda Fria Projects   -3-1
Gold Road   -1 
Total3256936825


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aranzazu Mine286157164130130
Projects24915   
Apoena Mine18719912811778
Almas Mine157146123  
Minosa Mine59115988875
Corporate-14404810214
Investment in joint venture 540  
Matupa & Tolda Fria Projects  14  
Almas, Matupa & Tolda Fria Projects   5553
Gold Road   45 
Total924727574536351


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity382,291
Short Interest: % Change Since 1015202520.5%
Average Daily Volume770,211
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity81,672,304
Short % of Basic Shares0.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110420256-K 9/30/2025
630202580620256-K 6/30/2025
123120025232003Annual 12/31/2002

Insider Activity

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