Fortuna Mining (FSM)
Market Price (9/6/2026): $12.315 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Fortuna Mining (FSM)
Market Price (9/6/2026): $12.315Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 17% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 69%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Materials & Resource Scarcity. Themes include Precious Metals Supply, Base Metals Supply, and Sustainable Mining & ESG. | Key risksFSM key risks include [1] a looming 35%+ production decline due to near-term mine closures and short reserve lives, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 49% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 69%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Materials & Resource Scarcity. Themes include Precious Metals Supply, Base Metals Supply, and Sustainable Mining & ESG. |
| Key risksFSM key risks include [1] a looming 35%+ production decline due to near-term mine closures and short reserve lives, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Fortuna Mining (FSM) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Financial Performance in Fiscal Q2 2026.
Fortuna Mining reported significantly higher profitability for its fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026, with net income from continuing operations reaching $83.7 million, an increase from $47.7 million in the prior-year period. Attributable basic earnings per share from continuing operations rose to $0.25 from $0.14, and free cash flow from ongoing operations increased by $28.3 million to $85.7 million compared to fiscal Q2 2025. Sales from continuing operations also increased, primarily driven by higher gold revenue from the Séguéla and Lindero mines. Although the reported EPS of $0.25 missed analyst consensus estimates, the strong year-over-year growth in key financial metrics likely contributed to positive investor sentiment.
2. Approval of Séguéla Gold Mine Expansion.
In late July 2026, Fortuna approved a 30% capacity expansion of its Séguéla Gold Mine in Côte d'Ivoire. This strategic decision is projected to increase the processing capacity to approximately 2.3 million tonnes per annum and provides a pathway to achieve gold production exceeding 200,000 ounces per year. The $109 million expansion is planned to be funded from operating cash flow and existing cash balances, demonstrating the company's commitment to growth and operational optimization.
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Fortuna Mining (FSM) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Financial Performance in Fiscal Q2 2026.
Fortuna Mining reported significantly higher profitability for its fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026, with net income from continuing operations reaching $83.7 million, an increase from $47.7 million in the prior-year period. Attributable basic earnings per share from continuing operations rose to $0.25 from $0.14, and free cash flow from ongoing operations increased by $28.3 million to $85.7 million compared to fiscal Q2 2025. Sales from continuing operations also increased, primarily driven by higher gold revenue from the Séguéla and Lindero mines. Although the reported EPS of $0.25 missed analyst consensus estimates, the strong year-over-year growth in key financial metrics likely contributed to positive investor sentiment.
2. Approval of Séguéla Gold Mine Expansion.
In late July 2026, Fortuna approved a 30% capacity expansion of its Séguéla Gold Mine in Côte d'Ivoire. This strategic decision is projected to increase the processing capacity to approximately 2.3 million tonnes per annum and provides a pathway to achieve gold production exceeding 200,000 ounces per year. The $109 million expansion is planned to be funded from operating cash flow and existing cash balances, demonstrating the company's commitment to growth and operational optimization.
3. Positive Feasibility Study for Diamba Sud Gold Project.
The company released a robust Feasibility Study for its Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal on June 29, 2026. The study highlighted compelling economics, including an after-tax Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 60% and a Net Present Value (NPV5%) of US$1 billion, based on a gold price of US$3,500 per ounce. This project is anticipated to extend the life of mine production profile for gold beyond a decade and offers promising expansion prospects.
4. Favorable Macroeconomic Tailwinds for Gold.
The period since May 31, 2026, saw an uptrend in gold prices, which generally benefits precious metal miners like Fortuna. Goldman Sachs Research forecasted gold to rise to $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, following a 15% rally from its mid-July low to around $4,600 per troy ounce by August 25. This surge was largely attributed to central banks diversifying their reserves and markets scaling back expectations for US interest rate hikes in 2026, bolstering demand for the safe-haven asset.
5. Ongoing Share Buyback Program.
Fortuna Mining actively engaged in capital allocation initiatives to return value to shareholders. During the first half of 2026, the company repurchased 10,800,693 common shares for $100.6 million under its share buyback programs. Specifically for fiscal Q2 2026, Fortuna returned $80.2 million to shareholders by repurchasing 8.6 million common shares at an average price of $9.32 per share, which can positively impact earnings per share and overall stock valuation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.4% change in FSM stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.06 | 12.31 | 22.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,094 | 1,182 | 8.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.1% | 32.0% | 3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 9.8 | 8.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 305 | 301 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSM | 22.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 57.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 2.5% | 59.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.9% change in FSM stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.66 | 12.31 | -9.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 872 | 1,182 | 35.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.5% | 32.0% | 20.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.2 | 9.8 | -46.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 307 | 301 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSM | -9.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 58.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | -1.4% | 63.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.9% change in FSM stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.70 | 12.31 | 59.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 802 | 1,182 | 47.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.6% | 32.0% | 62.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.0 | 9.8 | -34.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 307 | 301 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSM | 59.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 45.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.3% | 57.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 297.1% change in FSM stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 131.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.10 | 12.31 | 297.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 665 | 1,182 | 77.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 3.1 | 131.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 291 | 301 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 297.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSM | 297.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 33.5% | 41.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FSM Return | -53% | -4% | 3% | 11% | 129% | 29% | 54% |
| Peers Return | -25% | -19% | -14% | 12% | 217% | 28% | 138% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FSM Win Rate | 25% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 70% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FSM Max Drawdown | -68% | -53% | -37% | -34% | -21% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -52% | -45% | -38% | -29% | -45% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PAAS, HL, CDE, SSRM, AG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Fortuna Mining's stock fell -7.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 7.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | FSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1229 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 778.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 691 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Fortuna Mining's stock fell -7.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 7.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Fortuna Mining (FSM)
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM) is a Canadian-based mining company primarily engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and operation of precious and base metal deposits. The company's core business revolves around extracting valuable metals, including silver and gold, which are considered precious metals, as well as base metals such as lead and zinc, from various mine sites across the globe.
FSM operates a diversified portfolio of mines and projects located in key mining jurisdictions. Its significant assets include the Caylloma silver, lead, and zinc mine in Peru, the San Jose silver and gold mine in Mexico, and the Lindero gold project in Argentina. The company also has a presence in Africa with the Yaramoko gold mine in Burkina Faso and the Séguéla gold mine in Côte d'Ivoire, showcasing a broad international footprint.
The primary products of Fortuna Silver Mines are the raw or semi-processed forms of these metals, which are sold into global commodity markets. By supplying silver, gold, lead, and zinc, the company serves a wide range of customers, including industrial manufacturers, refiners, and investors who demand these metals for various applications, from jewelry and electronics to construction and automotive industries, as well as for wealth preservation.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Fortuna Mining (FSM):
- Imagine a smaller, globally diversified Barrick Gold or Newmont, but with significant operations in both gold and silver, along with some lead and zinc.
- Think of it as a Pan American Silver, but with a broader portfolio that includes more gold mines and operations spread across several continents.
- A mid-tier precious metals miner with diverse international operations, similar to a smaller Newmont or Barrick Gold, but with a pronounced emphasis on silver production.
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- Gold: A precious metal extracted from its mines in Mexico, Argentina, Burkina Faso, and Côte d'Ivoire.
- Silver: A precious metal mined from its operations in Peru and Mexico.
- Lead: A base metal produced from its Caylloma mine in Peru.
- Zinc: A base metal extracted from its Caylloma mine in Peru.
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Major Customers of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM)
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is a mining company that extracts and produces precious metals (silver and gold) and base metal concentrates (lead and zinc). As such, it operates as a business-to-business (B2B) supplier, selling its raw or semi-processed mineral products to other companies within the global metals industry, rather than directly to individuals.
Mining companies like Fortuna generally do not publicly disclose the specific names of their major customers due to the commodity nature of their products and competitive reasons. However, based on typical industry practices for producers of precious and base metals, their customers fall into the following categories:
- Precious Metal Refiners: For their gold and silver dore (unrefined metal) production, the primary customers are specialized precious metal refineries. These companies process the dore into high-purity, marketable forms such as bullion bars.
- Base Metal Smelters: For their lead and zinc concentrates, the customers are base metal smelters. These industrial facilities process the concentrates to extract and refine the contained metals.
- Metal Trading Houses: Large international commodity trading firms may also act as customers, purchasing concentrates or dore for onward sale and distribution to refiners and smelters globally.
While specific customer companies are not typically identified by Fortuna Silver Mines Inc., their sales are directed towards these industrial buyers who further process or trade the extracted metals.
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Jorge A. Ganoza, President, CEO and Director
Jorge A. Ganoza co-founded Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (now Fortuna Mining) in 2004 and has served as its President and CEO since January 2006. He is a fourth-generation miner from a Peruvian family with a history of owning and operating underground gold, silver, and base metal mines. Prior to co-founding Fortuna, Mr. Ganoza worked in business development at senior levels for several private and public Canadian junior mining companies operating across Latin America. He previously served as a Director of Ferreycorp from March 2017 to July 2020.
Luis D. Ganoza, Chief Financial Officer
Luis D. Ganoza has been the Chief Financial Officer at Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. since June 2006. He possesses over 14 years of experience in the operation and financial management of mining companies. Before joining Fortuna, he was the Controller and Treasurer for Minera Atacocha, one of Peru's largest public mining companies, which was subsequently acquired by the Votorantim Group. Mr. Ganoza also serves as a Director and Non-Executive Chairman of Atico Mining Corporation.
Cesar E. Velasco, Chief Operating Officer – Latin America
Cesar E. Velasco was appointed Chief Operating Officer, Latin America, effective September 1, 2021. He joined Fortuna in 2018 as Country Head Peru. Mr. Velasco is an executive with 23 years of global experience in the mining and manufacturing industry, having held senior management positions in various large private and public multinational companies throughout Latin America, including EXSA, ENAEX–EXSA JV, and Dyno Nobel Latin America.
David Whittle, Chief Operating Officer – West Africa
David Whittle serves as the Chief Operating Officer for West Africa. He has over 30 years of international mining industry experience spanning exploration, development, and production across Africa and Australia. His experience includes working with both junior and major mining companies.
Eric Chapman, Senior Vice President, Technical Services
Eric Chapman is a geologist with over 20 years of experience who joined Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. in 2011. He was appointed Vice President, Technical Services in 2017, and later became Senior Vice President, Technical Services. Prior to his time at Fortuna, Mr. Chapman was a Senior Consultant for Snowden Mining Industry Consultants, where he worked on various mine and exploration projects in Africa and the Americas.
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Here are the key risks to Fortuna Mining (FSM):
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Commodity Price Volatility: Fortuna Mining's financial performance is highly susceptible to fluctuations in the global prices of precious and base metals, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc. These prices are cyclical and can be influenced by economic conditions, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, directly impacting the company's revenues and profits.
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Geopolitical and Jurisdictional Risks: The company operates mines in several countries, including Argentina, Burkina Faso, Mexico, Peru, and Côte d'Ivoire. Many of these jurisdictions are traditionally viewed as riskier, exposing Fortuna Mining to potential political instability, changes in mining regulations and taxation, social unrest, and community disputes. These factors can lead to operational disruptions, increased costs, and impact the company's valuation.
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Operational Disruptions and Production Challenges: Fortuna Mining faces inherent operational risks common to the mining industry, such as supply chain interruptions, technical failures, accidents, and labor disputes. More specifically, the company has experienced declining production due to events like a seismic incident at the Yaramoko mine and the planned closure of the San Jose mine in 2025, with no immediate new projects to offset this decline.
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Addressable Markets for Fortuna Mining's Main Products:
- Silver: The global silver market size was valued at USD 23.51 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 36.51 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 4.50% from 2026 to 2035. Another estimate indicates the global silver market size was anticipated to reach USD 21.91 billion in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 3.31% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2033. Industrial use now dominates silver demand, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total consumption.
- Gold: The global gold market size was valued at USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by the end of 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.51% over the forecast period of 2025-2030. In terms of volume, the global gold market size stood at 4,890.0 tons in 2025 and is expected to grow from 5,118.1 tons in 2026 to 7,424.4 tons by 2034, recording a CAGR of 4.70%. Asia Pacific dominated the gold market with a market share of 65.54% in 2025.
- Lead: The global lead market size was valued at USD 23.55 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 39.26 billion by 2034, with a projected CAGR of 5.84%. Another source reported the global lead market was valued at USD 29.9 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 31.2 billion in 2026. The increasing demand for lead-acid batteries accounts for approximately 86% of total lead consumption, essential in automotive applications, uninterruptible power supplies, and energy storage systems. The Asia-Pacific region covers major consumers like China, Japan, and India and dominates global lead consumption.
- Zinc: The global zinc market size was estimated at USD 23.36 billion in 2024. In terms of volume, the zinc market size was valued at 13.78 million tons in 2025 and is estimated to grow to 15.06 million tons by 2031, at a CAGR of 1.57% during the forecast period (2026-2031). The global zinc market is projected to grow at a 5.58% CAGR from 2025 to 2035, driven by increasing demand in construction, automotive, and renewable energy sectors. Asia-Pacific commanded 62.86% of 2025 volume and is set to remain the dominant consumer.
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Future Revenue Growth Drivers for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM)
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, primarily driven by the enhanced production from key gold assets, the development of new projects, and favorable precious metal prices. The company has strategically shifted its focus towards becoming a diversified precious metals producer, with gold now driving most of its revenue. The following are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Fortuna Silver Mines:- Increased Gold Production from the Séguéla Mine and its Expansion: The Séguéla mine in Côte d'Ivoire is a cornerstone of Fortuna's gold-led growth strategy. It significantly contributed to increased net income and lower consolidated costs in the first quarter of 2024. The mine is ramping up towards its nameplate capacity, with satellite deposits such as Sunbird, Koula, and Ancien scheduled to commence production sequentially through 2025–2027, supporting an annual run-rate of 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold. Furthermore, an expansion of the Séguéla plant capacity by 15% to 40% is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, which is expected to further boost gold output. The mine's mineral reserves have also increased by 31%, extending its operational life to over nine years.
- Development of the Diamba Sud Gold Project: The Diamba Sud project in Senegal is identified as a significant emerging growth engine for Fortuna. Recent drilling has substantially increased the indicated mineral resources by 53% and inferred resources by 93% within six months, now totaling 1 million ounces of indicated and inferred resources. The project's indicated mineral resources now stand at 1.25 million ounces, with a feasibility study projected for completion by mid-2026. This development is critical to Fortuna's long-term objective of achieving over 500,000 ounces of gold production annually.
- Optimization and Life Extension of Existing Gold Assets: Fortuna is focused on optimizing its current gold-producing assets to enhance output and extend mine life. For instance, the Lindero gold project in Argentina aims to increase its annual production to between 110,000 and 130,000 ounces by 2025 through improved stacking and recovery methods, alongside low-capital expenditure debottlenecking. Similarly, ongoing infill drilling and regional exploration at the Yaramoko mine in Burkina Faso are targeting production stabilization to 100,000–130,000 ounces per year, with updated reserves and resources expected in the 2025 technical report. The company's strategic decision to divest non-core assets like the San Jose and Yaramoko mines in 2025 allows for a concentrated focus on higher-yield, longer-life gold operations.
- Favorable Precious Metal Price Environment: The company's financial outlook is supported by expectations of higher precious metal prices, particularly for gold. Increased gold sales volume and higher realized gold and silver prices have already contributed to improved financial results. Analysts are projecting higher gold prices in the coming years, with some forecasts reaching $6,000 per ounce by 2026. This elevated price environment is expected to enhance revenue, although it may also lead to higher costs due to royalties.
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Share Repurchases
- Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. received approval in April 2025 from the Toronto Stock Exchange to renew its normal course issuer bid, authorizing the repurchase of up to 5% of its outstanding common shares, which equates to approximately 15.3 million common shares, through May 1, 2026.
- Between December 23, 2025, and January 7, 2026, the company repurchased 1,700,000 common shares on the open market for a total consideration of $17,019,894, at a weighted-average price of $10.01 per share. These repurchases represented approximately 11% of the shares authorized under the NCIB.
- As of April 28, 2025, under its prior normal course issuer bid, Fortuna repurchased an aggregate of 7,319,540 common shares at a weighted-average price of US$4.7203 per common share.
Outbound Investments
- Fortuna completed the sale of its San Jose Mine in April 2025 and the Yaramoko Mine in May 2025, as part of a strategy to streamline its portfolio by divesting non-core assets.
Capital Expenditures
- Fortuna's capital expenditures for the full year 2025 amounted to $178.1 million.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, non-sustaining capital expenditures totaled $20.6 million, with $10.7 million allocated to mine site exploration and other items, and $10.1 million directed towards the Diamba Sud project.
- For 2026, the company has allocated significant capital towards project development and exploration, including $100 million for the Diamba Sud project and $55 million for exploration activities. These expenditures are focused on growth initiatives, such as advancing the Diamba Sud project in Senegal and the Séguéla plant expansion in Côte d'Ivoire, and brownfield exploration at Séguéla and Caylloma.
Peer Outperformance in Gold
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 100.1% | 81.5% | 291.2% | COPR 1037% · HBM 338% · TGB 338% |
| Silver | 6 | 142.0% | 363.5% | 153.0% | AYA 257% · HL 230% · SVM 184% |
| Gold ← | 34 | 37.0% | 210.7% | 147.9% | IAG 753% · CNL 596% · OGC 452% |
| Steel | 13 | 28.0% | 58.7% | 146.6% | AMR 427% · HCC 369% · NWPX 318% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 111.7% | 145.6% | 60.5% | CENX 268% · KALU 61% · AA 11% |
| Construction Materials | 7 | -18.1% | 26.0% | 41.7% | USLM 306% · CRH 90% · VMC 52% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 24 | -1.5% | -10.5% | 21.2% | ATLX 237757% · USAR 58994% · SGML 924% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | -6.7% | 4.8% | 0.7% | KRT 166% · MYE 64% · GEF 46% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 8.5% | 14.7% | -7.7% | PKG 80% · CCK 9% · SON -5% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 9.4% | -0.7% | -15.4% | ODC 463% · NEU 184% · CMT 75% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 12 | 19.0% | -12.5% | -27.4% | HWKN 268% · LXU 77% · MEOH 68% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | 1.4% | -28.4% | -30.0% | CBT 72% · ASH -14% · CC -46% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | 42.0% | 177.8% | -31.9% | ASM 592% · PPTA 388% · MTA 31% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -4.8% | -0.3% | -32.1% | CF 226% · CTVA 107% · NTR 55% |
| Paper Products | 3 | -19.9% | -52.0% | -96.3% | CLW -39% · MERC -96% · ITP -96% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,791 |
| Op Inc LTM | 787 |
| FCF LTM | 613 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 270 |
| CFO LTM | 822 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 454 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 61.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 34.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 45.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 162.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 312.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 43.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 46.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 33.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sango | 526 | 330 | 154 | 0 | 0 |
| Mansfield | 294 | 232 | 208 | 212 | 179 |
| Bateas | 127 | 115 | 102 | 102 | 104 |
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cuzcatlan | 150 | 174 | 216 | ||
| Sanu | 229 | 194 | 101 | ||
| Total | 947 | 677 | 842 | 681 | 600 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | 181 | 57 | 18 | -41 | 41 |
| Sango | 157 | 66 | 57 | -1 | -1 |
| Bateas | 29 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| Corporate | -78 | -55 | -58 | -61 | -53 |
| Cuzcatlan | -107 | 17 | 43 | ||
| Sanu | 28 | -69 | 12 | ||
| Total | 289 | 90 | -44 | -136 | 59 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sango | 1,012 | 939 | 976 | 833 | 760 |
| Mansfield | 649 | 554 | 491 | 500 | 614 |
| Corporate | 538 | 230 | 74 | 30 | 32 |
| Bateas | 162 | 154 | 139 | 142 | 128 |
| Cuzcatlan | 0 | 59 | 59 | 188 | 239 |
| Sanu | 0 | 179 | 228 | 183 | 249 |
| Total | 2,361 | 2,116 | 1,968 | 1,876 | 2,022 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/08/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.73 | $10.04 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 26.5% | 22.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.8% | 58.4% |
| Downside Capture | 161.91 | 236.43 |
| Upside Capture | 291.37 | 243.15 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 56.6% | 45.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.94 | 2.29 | 2.34 | 2.03 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | 0.43 | 1.69 | 1.84 | 1.98 | 2.12 | 0.91 |
| Down Beta | 2.21 | 2.10 | 2.93 | 2.22 | 1.30 | 1.06 |
| Up Capture | 518% | 369% | 302% | 279% | 462% | 332% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 32 | 59 | 131 | 376 |
| Down Capture | -189% | 41% | 166% | 220% | 160% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 19 | 32 | 66 | 115 | 355 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSM | 61.9% | 58.2% | 1.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 16.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 45.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | 77.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.8% | 20.3% | 1.67 | 5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.1% | 43.8% | -0.63 | 32.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSM | 22.4% | 57.6% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 19.1% | 0.21 | 40.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 31.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 59.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 23.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 28.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.2% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 20.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSM | 4.3% | 59.2% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.0% | 20.7% | 0.43 | 31.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 24.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 59.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 23.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 16.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
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