Fortuna Mining (FSM)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $9.77 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Fortuna Mining (FSM)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $9.77Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 8.2% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Materials & Resource Scarcity. Themes include Precious Metals Supply, Base Metals Supply, and Sustainable Mining & ESG. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 8.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Materials & Resource Scarcity. Themes include Precious Metals Supply, Base Metals Supply, and Sustainable Mining & ESG. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.4%, Dist 3Y High is -3.4% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 108% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FSM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Fortuna Mining (FSM) experienced a 27% increase in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance. Fortuna Mining reported robust financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2025, released on November 5 and 6, 2025. The company demonstrated strong financial performance, boosted by higher gold prices and consistent mine operations. Key highlights included a 40% increase in sales to $251.4 million and a 94% rise in mine operating income to $133.1 million compared to the same period last year. The company also generated $73.4 million in free cash flow from operations, a significant increase from the previous quarter, and saw its attributable net income from continuing operations surge by 189% to $123.6 million. Furthermore, Fortuna maintained a robust liquidity position of nearly $600 million and $265.8 million in net cash.
2. Favorable Gold Price Environment. A significant driver of Fortuna Mining's performance was the increase in gold prices during the period. The realized gold price for Fortuna in Q3 2025 was $3,467 per ounce, an increase from $3,307 per ounce in Q2 2025. Broader market sentiment also indicated strong bullishness for gold, with reports noting that spot gold rose to $4,215 per ounce, accumulating over a 60% increase year-to-date, and a Goldman Sachs survey showed over 70% of institutional investors expecting gold to continue rising in 2026. This positive outlook for gold prices generally benefits gold mining companies like Fortuna.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FSM Return | 102% | -53% | -4% | 3% | 11% | 128% | 140% |
| Peers Return | 36% | -25% | -19% | -14% | 12% | 217% | 153% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FSM Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 37% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FSM Max Drawdown | -56% | -63% | -46% | -30% | -32% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -34% | -39% | -34% | -35% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PAAS, HL, CDE, SSRM, AG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FSM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 356.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1115 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 185.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 425 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1181.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 747 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, NEM, AEM, AU
In The Past
Fortuna Mining's stock fell -78.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -78.1% loss requires a 356.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FSM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.6% | 40.6% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.6% | 40.6% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Fortuna Mining
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,392 |
| Op Inc LTM | 400 |
| FCF LTM | 209 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 52 |
| CFO LTM | 434 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 277 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 56.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 58.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 22.4 |
| P/E | 26.2 |
| P/CFO | 15.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 23.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 80.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 164.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 200.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 23.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 66.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 135.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 107.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3272025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3302023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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