Tearsheet

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $3.63 | Market Cap: $299.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $3.63
Market Cap: $299.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Nanomaterials, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -57%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Nanomaterials, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -57%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ASPN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) experienced a significant stock price decline of approximately 46.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025. This movement was primarily influenced by the following key factors:

1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and Reduced Guidance: Aspen Aerogels reported its Q3 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, which showed a revenue of $73.0 million, slightly below analyst expectations, and a GAAP EPS of -$0.08, missing the consensus forecast of -$0.00. Crucially, the company materially cut its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $270–$280 million (down from $297–$317 million) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7–$15 million (down from $35–$45 million). This substantial reduction in guidance, particularly for the fourth quarter, signaling negative adjusted EBITDA, likely contributed significantly to investor concern and the stock drop.

2. Weakness in Thermal Barrier (EV) Segment: A primary driver of the reduced guidance and overall financial underperformance was a 12% quarter-over-quarter decline in Thermal Barrier revenue to $48.7 million in Q3 2025. This reflected an "ongoing reset in the U.S. EV market" and lower electric vehicle volumes, which negatively impacted fixed cost absorption and led to gross margin compression.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ASPN Return115%198%-76%34%-25%-69%-53%
Peers Return16%31%-40%47%58%-9%94%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ASPN Win Rate67%75%25%58%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate42%52%35%57%60%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ASPN Max Drawdown-36%-5%-83%-53%-31%-75% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-9%-50%-21%-12%-38% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TILE, ARLO, SWIM, APOG, NX. See ASPN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventASPNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1055.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven184 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-70.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven235.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven169 days120 days

Compare to TILE, ARLO, SWIM, APOG, NX


In The Past

Aspen Aerogels's stock fell -91.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -91.3% loss requires a 1055.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)

Better Bets than Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ASPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aspen Aerogels

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ASPNTILEARLOSWIMAPOGNXMedian
NameAspen Ae.InterfaceArlo Tec.Latham Apogee E.Quanex B. 
Mkt Price3.6327.8014.397.1637.5813.6614.03
Mkt Cap0.31.61.50.80.80.60.8
Rev LTM3531,3725105331,3921,840953
Op Inc LTM12158-528697848
FCF LTM31175524672741
FCF 3Y Avg-12011640551157766
CFO LTM521576646988274
CFO 3Y Avg-11464682157120101

Growth & Margins

ASPNTILEARLOSWIMAPOGNXMedian
NameAspen Ae.InterfaceArlo Tec.Latham Apogee E.Quanex B. 
Rev Chg LTM-14.7%5.1%-2.8%4.1%1.2%70.2%2.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg39.7%1.8%-0.0%-9.3%0.1%19.9%0.9%
Rev Chg Q-37.8%5.9%1.4%7.6%4.6%76.7%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-11.2%1.5%0.4%2.2%1.1%13.2%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM3.3%11.5%-0.9%5.3%4.9%4.3%4.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-4.8%9.7%-5.5%3.5%8.3%7.2%5.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-4.5%0.7%1.2%1.4%-1.2%0.0%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM14.9%11.4%12.9%8.7%7.1%4.5%10.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-4.4%11.1%9.0%14.9%11.3%9.8%10.4%
FCF/Rev LTM0.8%8.6%10.7%4.5%4.8%1.5%4.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-49.2%8.8%7.9%10.1%8.2%6.6%8.1%

Valuation

ASPNTILEARLOSWIMAPOGNXMedian
NameAspen Ae.InterfaceArlo Tec.Latham Apogee E.Quanex B. 
Mkt Cap0.31.61.50.80.80.60.8
P/S1.61.23.51.70.70.51.4
P/EBIT-2.010.9-381.529.612.7-3.74.5
P/E-1.914.9414.6-80.421.0-3.06.5
P/CFO10.910.827.219.29.510.510.9
Total Yield-53.2%6.9%0.2%-1.2%7.1%-31.2%-0.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%2.4%1.8%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-16.4%12.6%2.9%11.6%9.7%8.7%9.2%
D/E0.30.20.00.40.41.00.3
Net D/E-0.00.1-0.10.30.30.90.2

Returns

ASPNTILEARLOSWIMAPOGNXMedian
NameAspen Ae.InterfaceArlo Tec.Latham Apogee E.Quanex B. 
1M Rtn-49.5%7.5%-18.9%-0.6%6.5%3.6%1.5%
3M Rtn-42.8%-0.2%-21.1%-10.5%-13.6%-34.3%-17.3%
6M Rtn-37.3%38.6%-11.2%23.7%-2.1%-19.3%-6.7%
12M Rtn-74.7%5.4%10.7%10.5%-54.3%-53.1%-23.8%
3Y Rtn-70.2%158.4%308.8%132.5%-14.1%-40.4%59.2%
1M Excs Rtn-50.8%6.2%-20.2%-1.8%5.3%2.3%0.2%
3M Excs Rtn-50.9%-7.1%-26.4%-18.9%-19.1%-30.3%-22.7%
6M Excs Rtn-52.8%23.2%-26.7%8.2%-17.5%-34.8%-22.1%
12M Excs Rtn-89.5%-8.6%8.5%-5.2%-67.8%-66.5%-37.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-141.3%90.4%211.5%41.1%-89.6%-113.5%-24.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Construction in progress and held for sale31520913  
All other corporate assets17730195  
Thermal barrier119394  
Energy industrial939470  
Total703643183  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,669,850
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202513.2%
Average Daily Volume4,812,003
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.01
Basic Shares Quantity82,399,599
Short % of Basic Shares11.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Daniel Santhosh PChief Accounting Officer8132025Sell7.314,41032,237145,315Form
1Young Donald RPresident and CEO5122025Buy5.3520,000107,0002,947,080Form