Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $3.63 | Market Cap: $299.1 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $3.63Market Cap: $299.1 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Nanomaterials, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -57% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Nanomaterials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -57% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ASPN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) experienced a significant stock price decline of approximately 46.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025. This movement was primarily influenced by the following key factors:
1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and Reduced Guidance: Aspen Aerogels reported its Q3 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, which showed a revenue of $73.0 million, slightly below analyst expectations, and a GAAP EPS of -$0.08, missing the consensus forecast of -$0.00. Crucially, the company materially cut its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $270–$280 million (down from $297–$317 million) and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7–$15 million (down from $35–$45 million). This substantial reduction in guidance, particularly for the fourth quarter, signaling negative adjusted EBITDA, likely contributed significantly to investor concern and the stock drop.
2. Weakness in Thermal Barrier (EV) Segment: A primary driver of the reduced guidance and overall financial underperformance was a 12% quarter-over-quarter decline in Thermal Barrier revenue to $48.7 million in Q3 2025. This reflected an "ongoing reset in the U.S. EV market" and lower electric vehicle volumes, which negatively impacted fixed cost absorption and led to gross margin compression.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASPN Return | 115% | 198% | -76% | 34% | -25% | -69% | -53% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 31% | -40% | 47% | 58% | -9% | 94% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASPN Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 25% | 58% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 52% | 35% | 57% | 60% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASPN Max Drawdown | -36% | -5% | -83% | -53% | -31% | -75% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -9% | -50% | -21% | -12% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TILE, ARLO, SWIM, APOG, NX. See ASPN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASPN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1055.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 235.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 120 days |
Compare to TILE, ARLO, SWIM, APOG, NX
In The Past
Aspen Aerogels's stock fell -91.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -91.3% loss requires a 1055.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 8 of Loss Streak for Aspen Aerogels Stock with -59% Return (vs. -74% YTD) [11/17/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| Day 7 of Loss Streak for Aspen Aerogels Stock with -58% Return (vs. -74% YTD) [11/16/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| Aspen Aerogels Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| 8-Day Sell-Off Sends Aspen Aerogels Stock Down -59% | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Aspen Aerogels Stock Slides -58% With A 7-Day Losing Spree | November 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ASPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aspen Aerogels
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 953 |
| Op Inc LTM | 48 |
| FCF LTM | 41 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 66 |
| CFO LTM | 74 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 101 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 4.5 |
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | -0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -24.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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