Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.94 | Market Cap: $242.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.94Market Cap: $242.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Nanomaterials, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -57% |
| Key risksASPN key risks include [1] an over-dependence on the volatile electric vehicle market, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Nanomaterials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -38% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -57% |
| Key risksASPN key risks include [1] an over-dependence on the volatile electric vehicle market, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ASPN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the negative stock movement for Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Declining Revenue and Weak Segment Performance
Aspen Aerogels reported a 34% year-over-year decline in its Q2 2025 revenue, reaching $78 million. The Energy & Industrial segment's revenue saw a 38% decrease year-over-year, largely due to distributor inventory rebalancing, a lack of new projects, and a weakened Subsea market. Additionally, the EV Thermal Barrier segment experienced a 32% revenue decline year-over-year, attributed to reduced vehicle production schedules among key OEM customers.
2. Ongoing Operating Losses and Disappointing EBITDA
The company faced continued operational softness, persistent operating losses, and weaker-than-expected EBITDA results. Aspen Aerogels reported a net loss of $5.2 million and a GAAP net loss of $9.1 million for Q2 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASPN Return | 115% | 198% | -76% | 34% | -25% | -74% | -60% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 31% | -10% | 28% | 8% | -10% | 71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASPN Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 25% | 58% | 33% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 57% | 42% | 52% | 57% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASPN Max Drawdown | -36% | -5% | -83% | -53% | -31% | -75% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -4% | -26% | -15% | -15% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CBT, OC, MMM, THRM, UFPI. See ASPN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASPN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1055.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 235.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 120 days |
Compare to TILE, ARLO, SWIM, APOG, NX
In The Past
Aspen Aerogels's stock fell -91.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -91.3% loss requires a 1055.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Aspen Aerogels Earnings Notes | |||
| Day 8 of Loss Streak for Aspen Aerogels Stock with -59% Return (vs. -74% YTD) [11/17/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| Day 7 of Loss Streak for Aspen Aerogels Stock with -58% Return (vs. -74% YTD) [11/16/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| Can Aspen Aerogels Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| 8-Day Sell-Off Sends Aspen Aerogels Stock Down -59% | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Aspen Aerogels Stock Slides -58% With A 7-Day Losing Spree | November 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ASPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aspen Aerogels
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 80.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 5,083 |
| Op Inc LTM | 508 |
| FCF LTM | 331 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 469 |
| CFO LTM | 605 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 709 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -26.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 14.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -44.5% | -53.7% | -55.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | -8.1% | -9.3% | -19.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | -24.3% | 0.7% | 5.8% |
| 2/12/2025 | -23.4% | -30.6% | -37.2% |
| 10/16/2024 | 13.2% | -9.1% | -30.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | 16.0% | 27.7% | 28.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | 56.7% | 75.0% | 96.6% |
| 1/11/2024 | -4.2% | -14.8% | -16.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| Median Negative | -8.9% | -8.1% | -19.8% |
| Max Positive | 56.7% | 75.0% | 96.6% |
| Max Negative | -44.5% | -53.7% | -55.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |