Tearsheet

Arlo Technologies (ARLO)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $14.39 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Arlo Technologies (ARLO)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $14.39
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 415x
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 415x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARLO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Arlo Technologies (ARLO) stock moved by -17.3% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. Concerns over Free Cash Flow Margin: Despite reporting record third-quarter 2025 earnings and strong subscription growth, the stock experienced a decline due to concerns about a decrease in free cash flow margin, which raised uncertainties regarding Arlo's fundamental cash profitability.

2. Slowest Revenue Growth Among Peers: Arlo Technologies recorded the slowest revenue growth among its specialized technology stock peers during the third quarter of 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARLO Return85%35%-67%171%18%29%242%
Peers Return8%41%-13%6%11%70%164%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARLO Win Rate58%67%25%83%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate37%52%28%40%42%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARLO Max Drawdown-64%-29%-70%0%-11%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-3%-24%-27%-26%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARLOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven259.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven210 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-69.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-88.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven761.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET


In The Past

Arlo Technologies's stock fell -72.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/3/2022. A -72.2% loss requires a 259.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Better Bets than Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arlo Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARLOVSATADTNFIEECSCOANETMedian
NameArlo Tec.Viasat Adtran FiEE Cisco Sy.Arista N. 
Mkt Price14.3935.148.541.8977.76128.5524.77
Mkt Cap1.54.60.7-308.0161.74.6
Rev LTM5104,5641,035056,6548,4482,800
Op Inc LTM-5-111-37-112,5043,623-3
FCF LTM558826-113,2884,04671
FCF 3Y Avg40-493-7-114,1782,91120
CFO LTM661,01690-114,1934,141553
CFO 3Y Avg4672849-114,9862,964388

Growth & Margins

ARLOVSATADTNFIEECSCOANETMedian
NameArlo Tec.Viasat Adtran FiEE Cisco Sy.Arista N. 
Rev Chg LTM-2.8%-1.4%14.3%-99.5%5.3%27.8%1.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.0%26.8%13.7%-65.6%3.4%29.4%8.5%
Rev Chg Q1.4%4.0%22.7%-7.6%27.5%7.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%1.0%5.3%35,994.4%1.9%6.3%3.6%
Op Mgn LTM-0.9%-2.4%-3.6%-3,292.4%22.1%42.9%-1.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.5%-8.2%-11.5%-1,146.9%24.5%40.8%-6.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.2%-0.3%2.6%1,197,542.8%0.3%-0.3%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM12.9%22.3%8.7%-1,599.2%25.1%49.0%17.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.0%17.9%5.3%-535.9%26.7%41.7%13.5%
FCF/Rev LTM10.7%1.9%2.5%-1,599.2%23.5%47.9%6.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.9%-14.7%-0.1%-536.4%25.3%41.0%3.9%

Valuation

ARLOVSATADTNFIEECSCOANETMedian
NameArlo Tec.Viasat Adtran FiEE Cisco Sy.Arista N. 
Mkt Cap1.54.60.7-308.0161.74.6
P/S3.50.40.7-4.921.73.5
P/EBIT-381.5-12.8-22.2-21.750.6-12.8
P/E414.6-3.2-8.5-27.054.627.0
P/CFO27.21.98.3-19.444.319.4
Total Yield0.2%-31.2%-11.8%-6.0%1.8%0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%-2.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%-20.9%-0.8%-6.4%2.5%2.5%
D/E0.03.70.3-0.10.00.1
Net D/E-0.13.10.2-0.0-0.10.0

Returns

ARLOVSATADTNFIEECSCOANETMedian
NameArlo Tec.Viasat Adtran FiEE Cisco Sy.Arista N. 
1M Rtn-18.9%-5.4%8.0%-24.1%7.5%-16.3%-10.8%
3M Rtn-21.1%16.7%-11.7%-32.5%15.1%-8.9%-10.3%
6M Rtn-11.2%285.3%7.3%-21.8%35.1%21.8%
12M Rtn10.7%280.7%-2.6%-33.8%21.9%21.9%
3Y Rtn308.8%10.3%-57.4%-72.1%287.1%72.1%
1M Excs Rtn-20.2%-6.6%6.7%-25.4%6.3%-17.5%-12.1%
3M Excs Rtn-26.4%12.7%-18.2%-40.2%11.1%-15.8%-17.0%
6M Excs Rtn-26.7%269.9%-8.2%-6.3%19.6%6.3%
12M Excs Rtn8.5%235.9%-14.7%-20.8%12.0%12.0%
3Y Excs Rtn211.5%-64.7%-128.2%-2.6%211.3%2.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Products290354332285323
Subscriptions and services2011361047247
Total491490435357370


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,139,445
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.8%
Average Daily Volume1,727,676
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.87
Basic Shares Quantity105,198,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023810202310-Q 7/2/2023
3312023511202310-Q 4/2/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 10/2/2022
6302022810202210-Q 7/3/2022
3312022511202210-Q 4/3/2022
12312021302202210-K 12/31/2021