Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $13.355 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $13.355Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 95x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% Key risksARLO key risks include [1] intense competition from significantly larger, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 95x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Key risksARLO key risks include [1] intense competition from significantly larger, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Arlo Technologies (ARLO) stock has gained about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Beat Fueled by Subscription Growth.
Arlo Technologies reported exceptional first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.19. Revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $150.38 million against an estimated $139.73 million, marking a 26.3% year-over-year increase. This strong performance was primarily driven by robust subscription momentum, with the company adding 318,000 paid accounts and surpassing 6 million total paid accounts earlier than anticipated. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by 29% year-over-year to $357 million, contributing to a record non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 50% and adjusted EBITDA of $30.4 million, an 85% year-over-year increase. Following this announcement, the stock jumped 11.6%.
2. Solid Q4 2025 Financial Performance Provided a Stable Foundation.
The period began with Arlo reporting strong fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026. The company posted non-GAAP EPS of $0.22, beating analyst forecasts by 37.5%, and achieved revenue of $141.3 million, exceeding expectations by 5.49%. Service revenue surged 39% year-over-year, accounting for 63% of total revenue, and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 28.4% to $330.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased by an impressive 138% year-over-year to $23.3 million. This positive financial standing at the beginning of the specified period helped to establish a stable and fundamentally sound backdrop for the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.1% change in ARLO stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 547.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.69 | 13.34 | 5.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 510 | 561 | 10.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 5.5% | 547.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 310.4 | 46.6 | -85.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 105 | 107 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARLO | 5.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 21.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.9% | 16.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.0% change in ARLO stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.34 | 13.34 | -31.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 508 | 561 | 10.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.0 | 2.5 | -35.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 104 | 107 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARLO | -31.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 27.4% | 26.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.7% change in ARLO stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.83 | 13.34 | 35.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 511 | 561 | 9.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 2.5 | 31.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 101 | 107 | -5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARLO | 35.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 38.0% | 32.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 83.0% | 28.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 107.1% change in ARLO stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 118.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.44 | 13.34 | 107.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 490 | 561 | 14.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 2.5 | 118.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 89 | 107 | -17.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 107.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARLO | 107.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.0% | 40.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 158.6% | 35.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARLO Return | 35% | -67% | 171% | 18% | 25% | -5% | 70% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -31% | 36% | 14% | 13% | -9% | 13% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARLO Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 83% | 50% | 50% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 38% | 60% | 47% | 47% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARLO Max Drawdown | -45% | -72% | -31% | -41% | -42% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -43% | -26% | -24% | -27% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, ADT, ALRM, VNT, REZI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Arlo Technologies's stock fell -26.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ARLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1939 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Arlo Technologies's stock fell -26.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Arlo Technologies:
Like an independent Ring or Nest, focused on smart home security cameras, doorbells, and cloud subscription services.
Think of it as a standalone version of Amazon's Ring, specializing in connected security cameras and cloud-based monitoring.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arlo Technologies (ARLO) provides the following major products and services:
- Arlo Smart Security Cameras: A diverse range of indoor, outdoor, wired, and wire-free cameras offering features like integrated spotlights, two-way audio, and advanced night vision for home and mobile security.
- Arlo Video Doorbells: Devices that deliver direct-to-mobile video calls and personalized alerts, available in both wired and wire-free configurations.
- Arlo Baby: A specialized baby monitor featuring air quality and temperature sensors, motion and audio detection, and advanced night vision capabilities.
- Arlo Chime: An accessory designed to pair with Arlo Video Doorbells, offering a variety of ringtones and functioning as a siren.
- Arlo Accessories: A collection of supplementary items for Arlo devices, including charging solutions, device mounts, and decorative skins.
- Arlo App: A mobile application for iOS and Android devices that serves as the central interface for connecting, managing, and interacting with all Arlo smart devices.
- Arlo Secure: A cloud-based subscription service providing premium features such as coverage for unlimited cameras and enhanced emergency response solutions.
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Arlo Technologies (ARLO) primarily sells its smart home security devices and subscription services to individual consumers, leveraging various retail and carrier channels, as well as its own direct-to-consumer website, to reach them. Based on the range of products and services offered, Arlo serves the following categories of individual customers:Categories of Customers:
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Home and Property Owners/Renters: These customers are seeking comprehensive security and monitoring solutions for their residences, including indoor and outdoor surveillance, video doorbells, and floodlight cameras. They are typically concerned with deterring crime, monitoring activity, and receiving alerts. Many subscribe to Arlo Secure for advanced features like cloud recording, personalized alerts, and enhanced emergency response.
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Parents and Caregivers: This segment focuses on monitoring infants and young children. They utilize specialized products like the Arlo Baby monitor, which offers features such as air quality and temperature sensors, motion and audio detection, and advanced night vision, to ensure the safety and well-being of their children.
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Remote and Mobile Surveillance Users: This category includes individuals who require security monitoring in locations that may not have consistent Wi-Fi access or fixed power. They use LTE-enabled cameras such as Arlo Go and Arlo Go 2 for untethered security in remote properties, vehicles, temporary installations, or other areas where traditional wired or Wi-Fi-dependent cameras are not feasible.
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Jabil Inc. (JBL)
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Matthew McRae, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae has served as Arlo's Chief Executive Officer since August 2018. Prior to joining Arlo, he was NETGEAR's Senior Vice President of Strategy, beginning in October 2017. From March 2010 to October 2017, Mr. McRae held the position of Chief Technology Officer at Vizio Inc., and before that, he was Vice President and General Manager, Advanced Products Group, at Vizio from August 2008 to March 2010. His career also includes serving as Vice President of Marketing and Business Development at Fabrik from July 2007 to August 2008, and Senior Director, Worldwide Business Development at Cisco Systems Inc. from 2001 to June 2007. Mr. McRae founded Violux, Inc. in 2020, where he held the title of Executive Chairman. He is also noted as the founder and Chairman of the Board of Blossom, a startup focusing on water consumption and control through an IoT smart device.
Kurt Binder, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer
Kurt Binder has served as Arlo's Chief Financial Officer since September 2022 and took on the role of Chief Operating Officer in February 2024. Before joining Arlo, Mr. Binder was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CalAmp Corp. from July 2017 to September 2022, a company specializing in telematics devices and software services. He spent over seven years as the Chief Financial Officer at VIZIO, Inc., a U.S. television and consumer electronics company. Prior to Vizio, Mr. Binder was the Chief Accounting Officer for Applied Medical Resources, Inc. and an Assurance and Advisory Business Services Partner at Ernst & Young LLP from 1997 to 2009.
Samir Kapoor, Chief Technology Officer
Samir Kapoor was appointed Arlo's Chief Technology Officer in March 2024. His background includes executive leadership positions at Life360, Fitbit, and Qualcomm, as well as various early-stage and growth startups. Mr. Kapoor brings extensive technical, operational, and product development expertise across software, hardware, services, and data.
Michael A. Werdann, Chief Revenue Officer
Michael A. Werdann has served as Arlo's Chief Revenue Officer since October 2024. Before joining Arlo, Mr. Werdann worked at NETGEAR from 1998 to 2024, holding a variety of roles including Chief Revenue Officer and Worldwide Senior Vice President of Sales for Consumer. He previously served as a Sales Director for Iomega Corporation.
Scott McManigal, Senior Vice President of Design and Experience
Scott McManigal has served as Arlo's Senior Vice President of Design and Experience since March 2018. Before his time at Arlo, Mr. McManigal was the Vice President of Design at VIZIO. His earlier career, prior to joining VIZIO in 2009, included leadership, product development, engineering, and design roles at companies such as OpenPeak, Herbst Lazar Bell, BMW/Designworks, Mattel Toys, and Patton Design.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Arlo Technologies (ARLO):
- Intense Competition: Arlo Technologies operates in a highly competitive market, facing well-resourced technology giants such as Google (Nest brand) and Amazon (Ring and Blink subsidiaries), as well as agile, focused specialist firms like SimpliSafe, Eufy, and Wyze. This competition exerts significant pressure on pricing and necessitates continuous innovation in products and subscription services to maintain market relevance and differentiate itself. To compete effectively, Arlo may be forced to lower prices or increase sales and marketing expenses, which could reduce margins and lead to a loss of market share.
- Supply Chain Dependencies and Manufacturing Concentration: Arlo relies heavily on a limited number of third-party suppliers for key components, such as lens-sensors and custom-made batteries, and a small set of Asian manufacturers, particularly in Vietnam. This dependency creates significant supply chain risks, including potential disruptions, increased component costs, quality control issues, and delays in product delivery. The concentration of manufacturing in specific regions also exposes the company to geopolitical instability, natural disasters, and labor unrest.
- Cybersecurity, Data Privacy, and Product Security: As a provider of smart home security devices and a cloud-based platform that collects sensitive user data, Arlo faces substantial cybersecurity and data privacy obligations. Smart home devices are generally vulnerable to various cyber threats, including hacking, malware, and unauthorized access, which can compromise personal information, video feeds, and even physical safety. Critics have also raised concerns about Arlo's "end-of-life" policy, which can cease support and security updates for older cameras, potentially leaving users vulnerable to exploits and reducing confidence in the brand's long-term security commitment.
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```htmlThe increasing market penetration and technological sophistication of value-oriented smart home security brands (such as Eufy, Wyze, and TP-Link). These competitors offer advanced features, including local AI processing for detection and robust local storage options, at significantly lower price points compared to Arlo's offerings. This trend threatens to commoditize the smart security camera market, erode Arlo's premium positioning, put downward pressure on hardware sales, and reduce the uptake of its crucial Arlo Secure subscription services by providing feature-rich alternatives that lessen the reliance on cloud subscriptions for advanced functionalities.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Arlo Technologies (ARLO) operates within several significant addressable markets related to smart home security, including smart home security cameras, video doorbells, baby monitors, and cloud-based security services.
Smart Home Security Camera Market
- The global smart home security camera market was estimated at approximately USD 11.77 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 56.47 billion by 2033, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 22.1% from 2026 to 2033.
- Another estimate values the global smart home security camera market at USD 10.51 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach around USD 60.99 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 19.23% from 2025 to 2034.
- North America held the largest share of the global smart home security camera market in 2025, accounting for 41.27%.
- The U.S. smart home security camera market size was evaluated at USD 3.02 billion in 2024 and is projected to be worth around USD 17.84 billion by 2034.
Video Doorbell Market
- The global video doorbell market was valued at approximately USD 1.56 billion in 2023.
- This market is projected to reach USD 9.09 billion by the end of 2035, growing from USD 2.57 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 13.50% during the forecast period of 2026-2035.
- The global smart video doorbell market was valued at USD 1.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 6.41 billion by the end of 2030, with a CAGR of 17.2% over the forecast period of 2023-2030.
- North America is expected to capture 30.1% of the global video doorbell market revenue share through 2035.
Smart Baby Monitor Market
- The global smart baby monitor market size was valued at USD 1.19 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 1.84 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.72% during 2025-2033.
- Another source reports the global baby monitor market size as USD 1.48 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 2.62 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 5.88% from 2026 to 2035.
- North America currently dominates the market, holding a significant market share of 46.8% in 2024.
Cloud-based Platform and Security Services
- Arlo's subscription services, such as Arlo Secure, are a central part of its business model.
- The global cloud camera market was valued at USD 4.09 billion in 2024 and is projected to exceed USD 8.17 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.9%.
- The global cloud security market size was estimated at USD 40.81 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 133.39 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 12.57% from 2026 to 2035.
- North America dominated the cloud security market with the largest revenue share of 35% in 2025.
- The global video surveillance storage market is forecast to reach USD 13.65 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.22% during the forecast period of 2024-2030, with cloud deployment growing at the highest CAGR.
Overall Home Security Market
- Arlo Technologies estimates the home security market in the United States is sized at USD 25 billion.
- Arlo anticipates its total addressable market to grow from USD 25 billion to over USD 200 billion in the next 3-5 years, including potential expansion into adjacent markets like small business and age-in-place sectors.
- The global smart home security market, in which Arlo Technologies is positioned, was valued at USD 32.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 62 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 13.8%.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
Arlo Technologies (ARLO) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years by focusing on several key drivers, primarily centered around its transition to a services-first, subscription-based model.
1. Expansion of Subscription Services and Paid Accounts
A primary driver of future revenue growth for Arlo is the continued expansion of its subscription services and paid accounts. The company has made a strategic pivot from a hardware-heavy model to one emphasizing high-margin Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), aiming to convert device buyers into recurring-revenue subscribers. Arlo reported over 4.3 million paid subscribers by early 2025 and 5.7 million at year-end 2025, with a goal to reach 10 million paid accounts by 2030. This growth is fueled by migrating users to higher-tier, AI-driven plans, such as the Arlo Secure 6 offerings, which has significantly increased Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to approximately $15.30 in Q4 2025. Service revenue constituted 63% of total revenue in Q4 2025, growing 39% year-over-year, and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $330 million, increasing 28% year-over-year.
2. Strategic Partnerships for Market Expansion
Arlo is actively pursuing and expanding strategic partnerships to broaden its market reach and diversify revenue streams. The company's alliance with Verisure provides exclusive access to the European residential security channel, accelerating recurring revenue from monitoring services. Newer collaborations with partners like Samsung and Comcast are expected to further drive growth, with the Comcast partnership anticipated to potentially surpass the existing Verisure collaboration. Additionally, Arlo is exploring insurance partnerships to offer premium discounts to policyholders utilizing its proactive threat detection services.
3. Continuous Product Innovation and Refresh
Ongoing investment in research and development (R&D) to introduce innovative products and enhance existing services is crucial for maintaining Arlo's competitive edge and attracting new subscribers. The company focuses on AI/ML for improved computer vision and object classification, R&D spend directed at proactive protection including automated deterrence and audio analytics, and Matter adoption for strengthened smart home ecosystem compatibility. Arlo recently completed its largest product refresh, launching 109 SKUs and shipping 800,000 units within 60 days in Q3 2025, which also resulted in a 20%-35% reduction in Bill of Materials (BOM) costs for the new product line.
4. Geographic Expansion and Penetration of New Market Segments
Arlo aims to expand its global footprint, targeting underpenetrated markets, particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe, and select Asia Pacific (APAC) economies through various partnerships and localized offerings. While revenue in the Americas saw an increase of 27.7% in 2025, the EMEA region demonstrated significant growth, indicating successful international penetration. Furthermore, Arlo is making a push into the Business-to-Business (B2B) sector with its "Arlo Professional" offerings, targeting small-to-medium businesses (SMBs) that require easy-to-deploy, subscription-driven surveillance solutions.
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Share Repurchases
- Arlo's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $50 million, expected to continue through December 31, 2027.
- In the first quarter of 2025, the company executed a share buyback program, purchasing $15.2 million of common stock.
Share Issuance
- Shares issued and outstanding increased from 100,885,158 at December 31, 2024, to 105,747,479 at September 28, 2025.
- As of February 20, 2026, there were 106,855,416 common shares outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- Arlo made a strategic investment of $12.5 million in Origin Wireless during the first quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures amounted to -$11.83 million in the last 12 months leading up to February 2026.
- The company's 2025 10-K report indicates investment in technologies that met the criteria for capitalization of software development costs.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
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| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,112 |
| Op Inc LTM | 600 |
| FCF LTM | 116 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 274 |
| CFO LTM | 314 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 318 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.8 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.34 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/03/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.95 | $14.92 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.4% | -10.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.7% | 51.5% |
| Downside Capture | 153.78 | 103.00 |
| Upside Capture | 36.92 | 67.37 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.5% | 31.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.80 | 1.19 | 1.03 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 1.52 |
| Up Beta | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 1.87 | 2.12 | 1.42 |
| Down Beta | 2.80 | 2.52 | 2.84 | 2.32 | 2.27 | 1.70 |
| Up Capture | 65% | 64% | 95% | 61% | 89% | 405% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 62 | 130 | 384 |
| Down Capture | 383% | 153% | 65% | 142% | 79% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 31 | 63 | 120 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLO | -0.2% | 51.5% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 66.5% | 20.7% | 2.36 | 27.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 11.8% | 1.94 | 31.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.7% | 1.17 | 8.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.6% | 18.8% | 1.63 | -3.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.1% | 0.64 | 11.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.8% | 41.6% | -0.81 | 20.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLO | 16.2% | 61.3% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.9% | 24.8% | 0.84 | 40.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 42.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 32.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.6% | 54.6% | 0.46 | 19.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLO | -4.8% | 73.6% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.0% | 24.5% | 0.95 | 36.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 38.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 31.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.0% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 15.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated N/A/N/A/N/A| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 2.3% | -14.7% | |
| 2/26/2026 | 27.1% | 15.3% | 9.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -12.5% | -11.0% | -15.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.7% | 1.0% | 10.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 16.8% | 29.6% | 63.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | 20.6% | -0.6% | -13.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -2.0% | -6.2% | 8.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | -15.6% | -10.0% | -18.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 12 | 17 |
| # Negative | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 13.1% | 16.1% | 9.9% |
| Median Negative | -12.5% | -9.9% | -15.3% |
| Max Positive | 50.1% | 53.2% | 76.2% |
| Max Negative | -29.9% | -18.9% | -27.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/28/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 155.00 Mil | 7.1% | Raised | Guidance: 140.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 GAAP EPS | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | -25.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.04 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0.17 | 0.2 | 0.23 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.2 for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 135.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 136.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 GAAP EPS | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 33.3% | Raised | Guidance: 0.03 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0.17 | 0.2 | 0.23 | 25.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.16 for Q4 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Binder, Kurtis Joseph | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 15.70 | 65,000 | 1,020,474 | 7,847,995 | Form |
| 2 | Binder, Kurtis Joseph | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 15.19 | 25,000 | 379,858 | 8,583,032 | Form |
| 3 | Binder, Kurtis Joseph | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 4072026 | 13.99 | 25,000 | 349,640 | 8,249,896 | Form |
| 4 | Busse, Brian | GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 13.78 | 25,525 | 351,609 | 8,035,897 | Form |
| 5 | Binder, Kurtis Joseph | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 13.78 | 179,419 | 2,471,533 | 8,470,164 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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