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Arlo Technologies (ARLO)


Market Price (7/15/2026): $13.185 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Arlo Technologies (ARLO)


Market Price (7/15/2026): $13.185
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 94x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Key risks
ARLO key risks include [1] intense competition from significantly larger, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Edge AI, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 94x
6 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
7 Key risks
ARLO key risks include [1] intense competition from significantly larger, Show more.

ARLO in ETFs

Weight = ARLO's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.04%
IJR0.08%
SLYG0.16%
IJT0.16%
IWO0.09%
VTWO0.04%
+6 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/8/2026

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Lower Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Guidance after strong Q1 performance. Arlo Technologies reported robust non-GAAP EPS of $0.28 for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 29, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.19. Despite this beat and a 26.3% year-over-year revenue increase to $150.38 million, the company's subsequent guidance for fiscal Q2 2026 projected a lower non-GAAP diluted EPS range of $0.17 to $0.23. This anticipated sequential decline in profitability likely tempered investor enthusiasm following the strong Q1 results.

2. Significant insider selling by key executives. Insider selling activity exceeded the $5 million threshold, signaling potential concerns among top management or a belief that the stock was fully valued. Over the three months leading up to early July 2026, insiders collectively sold approximately $6.5 million worth of shares. Notably, CEO Matthew Blake McRae sold 478,950 shares with an estimated value of $6,355,243 during this period. Combined sales by the CEO and CFO, Kurtis Joseph Binder, totaled over $10 million in March and May 2026.

Show more
Updated on 7/8/2026

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Lower Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Guidance after strong Q1 performance. Arlo Technologies reported robust non-GAAP EPS of $0.28 for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 29, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.19. Despite this beat and a 26.3% year-over-year revenue increase to $150.38 million, the company's subsequent guidance for fiscal Q2 2026 projected a lower non-GAAP diluted EPS range of $0.17 to $0.23. This anticipated sequential decline in profitability likely tempered investor enthusiasm following the strong Q1 results.

2. Significant insider selling by key executives. Insider selling activity exceeded the $5 million threshold, signaling potential concerns among top management or a belief that the stock was fully valued. Over the three months leading up to early July 2026, insiders collectively sold approximately $6.5 million worth of shares. Notably, CEO Matthew Blake McRae sold 478,950 shares with an estimated value of $6,355,243 during this period. Combined sales by the CEO and CFO, Kurtis Joseph Binder, totaled over $10 million in March and May 2026.

3. Elevated valuation metrics suggested the stock was overvalued. Arlo's stock traded with significantly high valuation multiples, making it vulnerable to a correction. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 114.62x as of July 3, 2026, which was considerably higher than the industry average. While other reports cited a P/E of approximately 48x compared to an industry median of about 23x, this still indicated a premium valuation. The P/E multiple experienced a substantial -54.9% change from 100.6 on March 31, 2026, to 45.3 on July 2, 2026, contributing to the stock's decline. This elevated valuation, combined with an assessment of being "Modestly Overvalued," pressured the stock despite positive operational news.

4. Broader market rotation away from high-valuation technology stocks. The period since March 31, 2026, saw a broader market shift where high-valuation technology and AI-related stocks experienced volatility and a pullback. Despite a strong overall equity market performance, the "Magnificent 7" large U.S. technology companies lagged, indicating a rotation in market leadership. Investors began to require earnings and fundamentals to catch up with previously cheerful valuations, making companies with high price multiples susceptible to corrections. This trend, coupled with periods of profit-taking and consolidation after significant advances, also impacted Arlo, which operates in the smart home security platform space.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.3% change in ARLO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267142026Change
Stock Price ($)14.2313.19-7.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5295615.9%
Net Income Margin (%)2.8%5.5%93.8%
P/E Multiple100.646.1-54.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)105107-1.4%
Cumulative Contribution-7.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO-7.3% 
Market (SPY)15.6%34.7%
Sector (XLK)38.2%35.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.7% change in ARLO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -86.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257142026Change
Stock Price ($)13.9913.19-5.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)51056110.0%
Net Income Margin (%)0.8%5.5%547.5%
P/E Multiple342.246.1-86.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)105107-1.7%
Cumulative Contribution-5.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO-5.7% 
Market (SPY)10.6%29.4%
Sector (XLK)27.7%23.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -22.2% change in ARLO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257142026Change
Stock Price ($)16.9613.19-22.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)50656110.8%
P/S Multiple3.42.5-26.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)102107-4.5%
Cumulative Contribution-22.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO-22.2% 
Market (SPY)22.7%37.6%
Sector (XLK)45.6%30.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 20.9% change in ARLO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237142026Change
Stock Price ($)10.9113.1920.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)47756117.6%
P/S Multiple2.12.522.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)90107-16.2%
Cumulative Contribution20.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARLO20.9% 
Market (SPY)75.6%42.7%
Sector (XLK)115.2%37.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ARLO Return35%-67%171%18%25%-6%68%
Peers Return2%-31%36%14%13%-5%17%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARLO Win Rate67%25%83%50%50%29% 
Peers Win Rate48%38%60%47%47%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARLO Max Drawdown-45%-72%-31%-41%-42%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-43%-26%-24%-27%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, ADT, ALRM, VNT, REZI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/14/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventARLOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-26.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven35.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven31 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-30.9%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven301 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-28.2%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven109 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-15.6%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.5%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven1 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-58.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven140.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven253 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-60.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven150.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven135 days140 days

Compare to AMZN, ADT, ALRM, VNT, REZI

In The Past

Arlo Technologies's stock fell -26.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventARLOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-26.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven35.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven31 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-30.9%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.7%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven301 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-28.2%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven109 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-58.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven140.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven253 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-60.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven150.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven135 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-45.3%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven82.7%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1939 days105 days

Compare to AMZN, ADT, ALRM, VNT, REZI

In The Past

Arlo Technologies's stock fell -26.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) is a global provider of smart home security and monitoring solutions. The company operates a cloud-based platform that integrates an intelligent cloud infrastructure and a mobile application with a comprehensive suite of smart connected devices. Essentially, Arlo enables users to monitor their surroundings remotely and enhance the security of their homes or properties through an ecosystem of interconnected hardware and software.

The core of Arlo's offering includes a wide array of smart cameras, such as indoor cameras, wire-free security cameras with LTE or Wi-Fi connectivity, floodlight and spotlight cameras, and advanced models like Arlo Ultra and Pro series. They also offer video doorbells, baby monitors with environmental sensors, and accessories like charging devices and mounts. Beyond hardware, Arlo provides the "Arlo app" for device management and a subscription service called "Arlo Secure," which offers features like unlimited camera coverage and enhanced emergency response capabilities.

Arlo's products and services are available across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company reaches its customers through a diverse distribution network, including major retailers, wholesale distributors, broadcast channels, wireless carriers, security solution providers, and direct sales via its own website, catering primarily to consumers seeking integrated home security and monitoring systems.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Arlo Technologies:

  • Like an independent Ring or Nest, focused on smart home security cameras, doorbells, and cloud subscription services.

  • Think of it as a standalone version of Amazon's Ring, specializing in connected security cameras and cloud-based monitoring.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) provides the following major products and services:

  • Arlo Smart Security Cameras: A diverse range of indoor, outdoor, wired, and wire-free cameras offering features like integrated spotlights, two-way audio, and advanced night vision for home and mobile security.
  • Arlo Video Doorbells: Devices that deliver direct-to-mobile video calls and personalized alerts, available in both wired and wire-free configurations.
  • Arlo Baby: A specialized baby monitor featuring air quality and temperature sensors, motion and audio detection, and advanced night vision capabilities.
  • Arlo Chime: An accessory designed to pair with Arlo Video Doorbells, offering a variety of ringtones and functioning as a siren.
  • Arlo Accessories: A collection of supplementary items for Arlo devices, including charging solutions, device mounts, and decorative skins.
  • Arlo App: A mobile application for iOS and Android devices that serves as the central interface for connecting, managing, and interacting with all Arlo smart devices.
  • Arlo Secure: A cloud-based subscription service providing premium features such as coverage for unlimited cameras and enhanced emergency response solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) primarily sells its smart home security devices and subscription services to individual consumers, leveraging various retail and carrier channels, as well as its own direct-to-consumer website, to reach them. Based on the range of products and services offered, Arlo serves the following categories of individual customers:

Categories of Customers:

  • Home and Property Owners/Renters: These customers are seeking comprehensive security and monitoring solutions for their residences, including indoor and outdoor surveillance, video doorbells, and floodlight cameras. They are typically concerned with deterring crime, monitoring activity, and receiving alerts. Many subscribe to Arlo Secure for advanced features like cloud recording, personalized alerts, and enhanced emergency response.

  • Parents and Caregivers: This segment focuses on monitoring infants and young children. They utilize specialized products like the Arlo Baby monitor, which offers features such as air quality and temperature sensors, motion and audio detection, and advanced night vision, to ensure the safety and well-being of their children.

  • Remote and Mobile Surveillance Users: This category includes individuals who require security monitoring in locations that may not have consistent Wi-Fi access or fixed power. They use LTE-enabled cameras such as Arlo Go and Arlo Go 2 for untethered security in remote properties, vehicles, temporary installations, or other areas where traditional wired or Wi-Fi-dependent cameras are not feasible.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Jabil Inc. (JBL)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Matthew McRae, Chief Executive Officer

Matthew McRae has served as Arlo's Chief Executive Officer since August 2018. Prior to joining Arlo, he was NETGEAR's Senior Vice President of Strategy, beginning in October 2017. From March 2010 to October 2017, Mr. McRae held the position of Chief Technology Officer at Vizio Inc., and before that, he was Vice President and General Manager, Advanced Products Group, at Vizio from August 2008 to March 2010. His career also includes serving as Vice President of Marketing and Business Development at Fabrik from July 2007 to August 2008, and Senior Director, Worldwide Business Development at Cisco Systems Inc. from 2001 to June 2007. Mr. McRae founded Violux, Inc. in 2020, where he held the title of Executive Chairman. He is also noted as the founder and Chairman of the Board of Blossom, a startup focusing on water consumption and control through an IoT smart device.

Kurt Binder, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Kurt Binder has served as Arlo's Chief Financial Officer since September 2022 and took on the role of Chief Operating Officer in February 2024. Before joining Arlo, Mr. Binder was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CalAmp Corp. from July 2017 to September 2022, a company specializing in telematics devices and software services. He spent over seven years as the Chief Financial Officer at VIZIO, Inc., a U.S. television and consumer electronics company. Prior to Vizio, Mr. Binder was the Chief Accounting Officer for Applied Medical Resources, Inc. and an Assurance and Advisory Business Services Partner at Ernst & Young LLP from 1997 to 2009.

Samir Kapoor, Chief Technology Officer

Samir Kapoor was appointed Arlo's Chief Technology Officer in March 2024. His background includes executive leadership positions at Life360, Fitbit, and Qualcomm, as well as various early-stage and growth startups. Mr. Kapoor brings extensive technical, operational, and product development expertise across software, hardware, services, and data.

Michael A. Werdann, Chief Revenue Officer

Michael A. Werdann has served as Arlo's Chief Revenue Officer since October 2024. Before joining Arlo, Mr. Werdann worked at NETGEAR from 1998 to 2024, holding a variety of roles including Chief Revenue Officer and Worldwide Senior Vice President of Sales for Consumer. He previously served as a Sales Director for Iomega Corporation.

Scott McManigal, Senior Vice President of Design and Experience

Scott McManigal has served as Arlo's Senior Vice President of Design and Experience since March 2018. Before his time at Arlo, Mr. McManigal was the Vice President of Design at VIZIO. His earlier career, prior to joining VIZIO in 2009, included leadership, product development, engineering, and design roles at companies such as OpenPeak, Herbst Lazar Bell, BMW/Designworks, Mattel Toys, and Patton Design.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Arlo Technologies (ARLO):

  1. Intense Competition: Arlo Technologies operates in a highly competitive market, facing well-resourced technology giants such as Google (Nest brand) and Amazon (Ring and Blink subsidiaries), as well as agile, focused specialist firms like SimpliSafe, Eufy, and Wyze. This competition exerts significant pressure on pricing and necessitates continuous innovation in products and subscription services to maintain market relevance and differentiate itself. To compete effectively, Arlo may be forced to lower prices or increase sales and marketing expenses, which could reduce margins and lead to a loss of market share.
  2. Supply Chain Dependencies and Manufacturing Concentration: Arlo relies heavily on a limited number of third-party suppliers for key components, such as lens-sensors and custom-made batteries, and a small set of Asian manufacturers, particularly in Vietnam. This dependency creates significant supply chain risks, including potential disruptions, increased component costs, quality control issues, and delays in product delivery. The concentration of manufacturing in specific regions also exposes the company to geopolitical instability, natural disasters, and labor unrest.
  3. Cybersecurity, Data Privacy, and Product Security: As a provider of smart home security devices and a cloud-based platform that collects sensitive user data, Arlo faces substantial cybersecurity and data privacy obligations. Smart home devices are generally vulnerable to various cyber threats, including hacking, malware, and unauthorized access, which can compromise personal information, video feeds, and even physical safety. Critics have also raised concerns about Arlo's "end-of-life" policy, which can cease support and security updates for older cameras, potentially leaving users vulnerable to exploits and reducing confidence in the brand's long-term security commitment.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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The increasing market penetration and technological sophistication of value-oriented smart home security brands (such as Eufy, Wyze, and TP-Link). These competitors offer advanced features, including local AI processing for detection and robust local storage options, at significantly lower price points compared to Arlo's offerings. This trend threatens to commoditize the smart security camera market, erode Arlo's premium positioning, put downward pressure on hardware sales, and reduce the uptake of its crucial Arlo Secure subscription services by providing feature-rich alternatives that lessen the reliance on cloud subscriptions for advanced functionalities.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) operates within several significant addressable markets related to smart home security, including smart home security cameras, video doorbells, baby monitors, and cloud-based security services.

Smart Home Security Camera Market

  • The global smart home security camera market was estimated at approximately USD 11.77 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 56.47 billion by 2033, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 22.1% from 2026 to 2033.
  • Another estimate values the global smart home security camera market at USD 10.51 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach around USD 60.99 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 19.23% from 2025 to 2034.
  • North America held the largest share of the global smart home security camera market in 2025, accounting for 41.27%.
  • The U.S. smart home security camera market size was evaluated at USD 3.02 billion in 2024 and is projected to be worth around USD 17.84 billion by 2034.

Video Doorbell Market

  • The global video doorbell market was valued at approximately USD 1.56 billion in 2023.
  • This market is projected to reach USD 9.09 billion by the end of 2035, growing from USD 2.57 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 13.50% during the forecast period of 2026-2035.
  • The global smart video doorbell market was valued at USD 1.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 6.41 billion by the end of 2030, with a CAGR of 17.2% over the forecast period of 2023-2030.
  • North America is expected to capture 30.1% of the global video doorbell market revenue share through 2035.

Smart Baby Monitor Market

  • The global smart baby monitor market size was valued at USD 1.19 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 1.84 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.72% during 2025-2033.
  • Another source reports the global baby monitor market size as USD 1.48 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 2.62 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 5.88% from 2026 to 2035.
  • North America currently dominates the market, holding a significant market share of 46.8% in 2024.

Cloud-based Platform and Security Services

  • Arlo's subscription services, such as Arlo Secure, are a central part of its business model.
  • The global cloud camera market was valued at USD 4.09 billion in 2024 and is projected to exceed USD 8.17 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.9%.
  • The global cloud security market size was estimated at USD 40.81 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 133.39 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 12.57% from 2026 to 2035.
  • North America dominated the cloud security market with the largest revenue share of 35% in 2025.
  • The global video surveillance storage market is forecast to reach USD 13.65 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.22% during the forecast period of 2024-2030, with cloud deployment growing at the highest CAGR.

Overall Home Security Market

  • Arlo Technologies estimates the home security market in the United States is sized at USD 25 billion.
  • Arlo anticipates its total addressable market to grow from USD 25 billion to over USD 200 billion in the next 3-5 years, including potential expansion into adjacent markets like small business and age-in-place sectors.
  • The global smart home security market, in which Arlo Technologies is positioned, was valued at USD 32.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 62 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 13.8%.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Arlo Technologies (ARLO) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years by focusing on several key drivers, primarily centered around its transition to a services-first, subscription-based model.

1. Expansion of Subscription Services and Paid Accounts

A primary driver of future revenue growth for Arlo is the continued expansion of its subscription services and paid accounts. The company has made a strategic pivot from a hardware-heavy model to one emphasizing high-margin Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), aiming to convert device buyers into recurring-revenue subscribers. Arlo reported over 4.3 million paid subscribers by early 2025 and 5.7 million at year-end 2025, with a goal to reach 10 million paid accounts by 2030. This growth is fueled by migrating users to higher-tier, AI-driven plans, such as the Arlo Secure 6 offerings, which has significantly increased Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to approximately $15.30 in Q4 2025. Service revenue constituted 63% of total revenue in Q4 2025, growing 39% year-over-year, and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $330 million, increasing 28% year-over-year.

2. Strategic Partnerships for Market Expansion

Arlo is actively pursuing and expanding strategic partnerships to broaden its market reach and diversify revenue streams. The company's alliance with Verisure provides exclusive access to the European residential security channel, accelerating recurring revenue from monitoring services. Newer collaborations with partners like Samsung and Comcast are expected to further drive growth, with the Comcast partnership anticipated to potentially surpass the existing Verisure collaboration. Additionally, Arlo is exploring insurance partnerships to offer premium discounts to policyholders utilizing its proactive threat detection services.

3. Continuous Product Innovation and Refresh

Ongoing investment in research and development (R&D) to introduce innovative products and enhance existing services is crucial for maintaining Arlo's competitive edge and attracting new subscribers. The company focuses on AI/ML for improved computer vision and object classification, R&D spend directed at proactive protection including automated deterrence and audio analytics, and Matter adoption for strengthened smart home ecosystem compatibility. Arlo recently completed its largest product refresh, launching 109 SKUs and shipping 800,000 units within 60 days in Q3 2025, which also resulted in a 20%-35% reduction in Bill of Materials (BOM) costs for the new product line.

4. Geographic Expansion and Penetration of New Market Segments

Arlo aims to expand its global footprint, targeting underpenetrated markets, particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe, and select Asia Pacific (APAC) economies through various partnerships and localized offerings. While revenue in the Americas saw an increase of 27.7% in 2025, the EMEA region demonstrated significant growth, indicating successful international penetration. Furthermore, Arlo is making a push into the Business-to-Business (B2B) sector with its "Arlo Professional" offerings, targeting small-to-medium businesses (SMBs) that require easy-to-deploy, subscription-driven surveillance solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Arlo's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $50 million, expected to continue through December 31, 2027.
  • In the first quarter of 2025, the company executed a share buyback program, purchasing $15.2 million of common stock.

Share Issuance

  • Shares issued and outstanding increased from 100,885,158 at December 31, 2024, to 105,747,479 at September 28, 2025.
  • As of February 20, 2026, there were 106,855,416 common shares outstanding.

Outbound Investments

  • Arlo made a strategic investment of $12.5 million in Origin Wireless during the first quarter of 2025.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures amounted to -$11.83 million in the last 12 months leading up to February 2026.
  • The company's 2025 10-K report indicates investment in technologies that met the criteria for capitalization of software development costs.

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
Mkt Price13.19247.496.7352.2329.3636.8633.11
Mkt Cap1.42,658.85.52.64.25.64.8
Rev LTM561742,7765,1401,0383,0857,6144,112
Op Inc LTM1585,4221,315136566633600
FCF LTM64-2,4721,495168373-1,338116
FCF 3Y Avg5621,3461,257169379-237274
CFO LTM76148,5312,056180447-1,217314
CFO 3Y Avg62120,5271,919183453-131318

Growth & Margins

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
Rev Chg LTM10.8%14.2%3.3%8.6%4.1%8.1%8.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.6%12.3%3.1%7.0%-1.3%6.1%5.9%
Rev Chg Q26.3%16.6%0.9%11.0%1.3%8.0%9.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%3.6%0.2%2.6%0.3%1.9%2.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM158.6%19.2%6.5%13.5%7.9%9.7%11.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg68.0%108.4%14.3%40.0%-0.4%1.2%27.1%
Op Mgn LTM2.7%11.5%25.6%13.1%18.4%8.3%12.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-2.2%10.2%25.5%11.4%18.0%8.7%10.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%0.3%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.3%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM13.5%20.0%40.0%17.3%14.5%-16.0%15.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.8%18.1%38.8%19.1%14.9%-1.1%16.5%
FCF/Rev LTM11.5%-0.3%29.1%16.2%12.1%-17.6%11.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.6%3.5%25.3%17.6%12.5%-2.7%11.5%

Valuation

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
Mkt Cap1.42,658.85.52.64.25.64.8
P/S2.53.61.12.51.30.71.9
P/Op Inc93.631.14.219.17.48.813.9
P/EBIT93.622.54.214.67.2-21.410.9
P/E46.129.38.820.210.1-11.215.1
P/CFO18.717.92.714.49.3-4.611.9
Total Yield2.2%3.4%14.7%4.9%10.3%-8.9%4.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%3.3%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.5%1.1%20.8%6.2%6.9%-1.6%5.4%
D/E0.00.11.40.20.50.60.3
Net D/E-0.10.01.40.00.40.50.2

Returns

ARLOAMZNADTALRMVNTREZIMedian
NameArlo Tec.Amazon.c.ADT Alarm.comVontier Resideo . 
1M Rtn2.1%3.7%-1.0%12.0%0.3%16.4%2.9%
3M Rtn-5.2%-0.6%-2.8%19.1%-21.8%-6.2%-4.0%
6M Rtn-4.6%2.0%-15.9%1.6%-23.8%-2.0%-3.3%
12M Rtn-18.6%9.7%-18.9%-4.3%-23.4%55.9%-11.5%
3Y Rtn21.9%83.8%14.3%-3.9%-8.6%103.2%18.1%
1M Excs Rtn1.8%0.5%-1.9%10.5%0.4%16.2%1.1%
3M Excs Rtn-13.4%-6.4%-10.8%10.8%-31.0%-13.1%-12.0%
6M Excs Rtn-11.2%-8.2%-25.3%-7.7%-32.9%-9.0%-10.1%
12M Excs Rtn-36.6%-10.5%-39.1%-25.1%-43.6%34.8%-30.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.4%19.2%-53.1%-71.2%-78.6%47.0%-52.2%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Subscriptions and services316243201136104
Products213268290354332
Total529511491490435


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$13.19 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.4 
First Trading Date08/03/2018 
Distance from 52W High-32.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$13.24$14.24
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-0.4%-7.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility44.6%50.9%
Downside Capture194.32140.72
Upside Capture107.6684.56
Correlation (SPY)45.1%37.6%
ARLO Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.651.461.191.211.521.52
Up Beta2.302.541.141.562.191.48
Down Beta0.891.321.262.062.011.60
Up Capture203%85%73%62%70%290%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days12233466129380
Down Capture153%143%165%96%125%110%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days9182959122366

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARLO
ARLO-16.2%50.9%-0.18-
Sector ETF (XLK)44.3%24.4%1.4531.0%
Equity (SPY)21.7%12.6%1.2837.7%
Gold (GLD)20.5%27.9%0.6513.0%
Commodities (DBC)27.3%18.9%1.14-4.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.0%13.9%0.6411.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-47.0%42.7%-1.3724.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARLO
ARLO15.2%61.3%0.47-
Sector ETF (XLK)20.4%25.5%0.7140.0%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.1%0.5942.9%
Gold (GLD)17.2%18.4%0.766.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%19.5%0.337.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0431.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.8%53.4%0.4220.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARLO
ARLO-4.9%73.2%0.24-
Sector ETF (XLK)25.1%24.8%0.9136.4%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7338.6%
Gold (GLD)11.2%16.1%0.577.7%
Commodities (DBC)6.3%18.0%0.2711.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2130.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.3%66.2%0.9715.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 61520268.4%
Average Daily Volume1.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity107.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares11.6%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/10/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/7/20262.3%-14.7%-15.0%
2/26/202627.1%15.3%9.1%
11/6/2025-12.5%-11.0%-15.3%
8/7/20251.7%1.0%10.1%
5/8/202516.8%29.6%63.0%
2/27/202520.6%-0.6%-13.9%
11/7/2024-2.0%-6.2%8.1%
8/8/2024-15.6%-10.0%-18.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161217
# Negative8127
Median Positive13.1%16.1%9.9%
Median Negative-9.7%-8.1%-15.3%
Max Positive50.1%53.2%76.2%
Max Negative-29.9%-14.7%-27.6%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/7/20262.3%-14.7%-15.0%
2/26/202627.1%15.3%9.1%
11/6/2025-12.5%-11.0%-15.3%
8/7/20251.7%1.0%10.1%
5/8/202516.8%29.6%63.0%
2/27/202520.6%-0.6%-13.9%
11/7/2024-2.0%-6.2%8.1%
8/8/2024-15.6%-10.0%-18.5%
5/9/2024-17.9%-11.7%-5.4%
2/29/202413.6%6.1%20.3%
11/9/2023-7.0%-3.4%4.5%
8/10/20236.4%-0.4%3.5%
5/11/202327.2%36.7%31.8%
3/7/202350.1%53.2%76.2%
11/8/2022-29.9%-10.5%-27.6%
8/9/20225.4%-1.9%-20.6%
5/10/20220.3%9.5%7.9%
3/1/202228.9%17.3%1.2%
11/9/202110.4%17.0%31.8%
8/4/2021-1.5%-0.2%4.2%
5/5/20218.7%1.0%9.9%
2/23/202112.6%12.9%8.2%
11/5/2020-2.3%-9.9%39.9%
8/5/202028.0%18.1%13.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161217
# Negative8127
Median Positive13.1%16.1%9.9%
Median Negative-9.7%-8.1%-15.3%
Max Positive50.1%53.2%76.2%
Max Negative-29.9%-14.7%-27.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/07/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/10/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/07/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/10/202210-Q
03/31/202205/11/202210-Q
12/31/202103/02/202210-K
09/30/202111/10/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/06/202110-Q
12/31/202002/26/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/11/202010-Q
12/31/201902/28/202010-K
09/30/201911/08/201910-Q
06/30/201908/06/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/12/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue145.00 Mil150.00 Mil155.00 Mil7.1% Higher NewGuidance: 140.00 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 EPS - diluted00.030.06-25.0%-1.0%Lower NewGuidance: 0.04 for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS - diluted0.170.20.230.0%0.0%Same NewGuidance: 0.2 for Q1 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Revenue135.00 Mil140.00 Mil145.00 Mil2.9% Higher NewActual: 136.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 GAAP EPS0.010.040.0733.3% Higher NewActual: 0.03 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS0.170.20.2325.0% Higher NewActual: 0.16 for Q4 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Revenue131.00 Mil136.00 Mil141.00 Mil-1.4% Lower NewActual: 138.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Net income per share - diluted00.030.06-57.1% Lower NewActual: 0.07 for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Non-GAAP net income per share - diluted0.130.160.196.7% Higher NewActual: 0.15 for Q3 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 7/6/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell706202612.8316,507211,7066,199,420Form
2Rothstein, Amy MDirectSell623202613.025,26068,5111,240,270Form
3Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell511202615.7065,0001,020,4747,847,995Form
4Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell421202615.1925,000379,8588,583,032Form
5Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell407202613.9925,000349,6408,249,896Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell706202612.8316,507211,7066,199,420Form
2Rothstein, Amy MDirectSell623202613.025,26068,5111,240,270Form
3Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell511202615.7065,0001,020,4747,847,995Form
4Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell421202615.1925,000379,8588,583,032Form
5Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell407202613.9925,000349,6408,249,896Form
6Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell312202613.7825,525351,6098,035,897Form
7Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell312202613.78179,4192,471,5338,470,164Form
8McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell312202613.78153,4332,113,57016,101,363Form
9Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell305202615.119,665146,0786,967,147Form
10Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell303202614.936,966103,9898,343,151Form
11Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell303202614.9312,539187,1837,025,686Form
12McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell303202614.9327,931416,96015,427,921Form
13Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell206202612.2931,407386,1496,797,291Form
14McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell206202612.2995,3261,172,03312,433,786Form
15McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell206202612.3818,085223,83113,696,119Form
16Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell206202612.6515,922201,3376,662,086Form
17McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell206202612.6558,604741,05912,104,643Form
18Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell203202612.818,245105,6216,953,034Form
19McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell203202612.8135,482454,53512,588,438Form
20Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell109202613.6918,841257,9207,542,996Form
21Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell109202613.6955,043753,5006,310,357Form
22McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell109202613.6990,0891,233,25513,937,939Form
23McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell1201202514.28257,2423,672,87613,443,871Form
24Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell1114202514.37149,5212,149,1407,472,136Form
25McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell1105202517.8618,645333,08931,479,939Form
26Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell1016202517.8251,668920,5277,411,771Form
27McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell1002202516.9995,4301,621,56629,695,416Form
28Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell1002202516.999,171155,83511,374,171Form
29Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell930202516.89135,4942,289,1587,901,424Form
30Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell930202517.0481,4401,388,07210,280,575Form
31McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell909202518.3049,795911,41330,473,658Form
32Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell903202517.71125,0002,214,05012,126,175Form
33Aggarwal, PrashantDirectSell815202516.6160,7871,009,836174,766Form
34Busse, BrianGENERAL COUNSELDirectSell813202517.4050,018870,12811,494,396Form
35McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell813202517.40520,5579,055,76628,213,928Form
36Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell812202518.56113,9122,113,97915,024,835Form
37McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell812202517.38331,6255,762,22337,225,602Form
38McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell805202515.9714,228227,19323,537,103Form
39McRae, Matthew BlakeCEODirectSell730202516.5625,380420,30524,206,566Form
40Binder, Kurtis JosephCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell703202517.1792,2471,583,61315,854,280Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 15, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
S Squared Technology, LLC$6.5 Mil2.5%35TRIM -11.5%13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
S Squared Technology, LLC$6.5 Mil2.5%35TRIM -11.5%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
S Squared Technology, LLC$6.5 Mil2.5%35TRIM -11.5%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/14/2026