Arcos Dorados (ARCO)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.23 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Arcos Dorados (ARCO)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.23Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ARCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Arcos Dorados (ARCO) stock moved by 9.8% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Significantly Beat Estimates.
Arcos Dorados reported a GAAP profit of $0.71 per share for the third quarter of 2025, substantially exceeding analyst estimates of $0.17 per share. This strong earnings beat was primarily driven by a one-time federal tax credit in Brazil. While revenue of $1.19 billion missed forecasts, the market reacted cautiously positive to the earnings strength, with the stock showing a notable uptick in pre-market trading.
2. Robust Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion.
The company achieved a strong Adjusted EBITDA of $201.1 million, yielding a robust margin of 16.9% for Q3 2025, significantly beating analyst estimates. This indicates strong profitability and effective operational management, which was well-received by the market despite the revenue shortfall.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARCO Return | -35% | 18% | 46% | 55% | -41% | 2% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 72% | -28% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARCO Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 17% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 24% | 28% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARCO Max Drawdown | -63% | -10% | -7% | -14% | -42% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -12% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CHSN, HCHL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 723 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1512 days | 120 days |
Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CHSN, HCHL
In The Past
Arcos Dorados's stock fell -34.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -34.4% loss requires a 52.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Arcos Dorados
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 334 |
| Op Inc LTM | 35 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 41 |
| CFO LTM | 79 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 68 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 31.9 |
| P/E | 101.6 |
| P/CFO | 3.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -24.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -34.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -36.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -44.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4292025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4292024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11162023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5172023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5182022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4292022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11102021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8112021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |