Tearsheet

Arcos Dorados (ARCO)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.23 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Arcos Dorados (ARCO)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.23
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
  
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

ARCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Arcos Dorados (ARCO) stock moved by 9.8% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Significantly Beat Estimates.

Arcos Dorados reported a GAAP profit of $0.71 per share for the third quarter of 2025, substantially exceeding analyst estimates of $0.17 per share. This strong earnings beat was primarily driven by a one-time federal tax credit in Brazil. While revenue of $1.19 billion missed forecasts, the market reacted cautiously positive to the earnings strength, with the stock showing a notable uptick in pre-market trading. 2. Robust Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion.

The company achieved a strong Adjusted EBITDA of $201.1 million, yielding a robust margin of 16.9% for Q3 2025, significantly beating analyst estimates. This indicates strong profitability and effective operational management, which was well-received by the market despite the revenue shortfall.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARCO Return-35%18%46%55%-41%2%4%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%72%-28%87%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARCO Win Rate50%50%75%58%17%50% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%24%28%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARCO Max Drawdown-63%-10%-7%-14%-42%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-12%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CHSN, HCHL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven91 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven169.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven723 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1512 days120 days

Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CHSN, HCHL


In The Past

Arcos Dorados's stock fell -34.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -34.4% loss requires a 52.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Arcos Dorados (ARCO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-5.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.6%-1.6%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-3.2%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-5.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.6%-1.6%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-3.2%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arcos Dorados

Financials

ARCOBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameArcos Do.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
Mkt Price7.24307.6023.1321.142.083.0214.19
Mkt Cap1.50.40.2---0.4
Rev LTM-387282---334
Op Inc LTM-2447---35
FCF LTM-8134---57
FCF 3Y Avg-5428---41
CFO LTM-10751---79
CFO 3Y Avg-8056---68

Growth & Margins

ARCOBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameArcos Do.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
Rev Chg LTM-6.9%-5.3%---0.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.7%4.2%---3.0%
Rev Chg Q5.6%10.3%-6.6%---5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.5%-1.8%---0.4%
Op Mgn LTM-6.2%16.6%---11.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-8.1%19.8%---14.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%-1.3%----0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-27.7%18.2%---23.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-21.3%19.4%---20.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-21.0%11.9%---16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-14.2%9.7%---12.0%

Valuation

ARCOBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameArcos Do.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
Mkt Cap1.50.40.2---0.4
P/S-1.00.7---0.9
P/EBIT-58.15.7---31.9
P/E-190.912.3---101.6
P/CFO-3.74.0---3.8
Total Yield-0.5%9.4%---4.9%
Dividend Yield1.7%0.0%1.2%---1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-17.5%6.6%---12.0%
D/E1.30.91.3---1.3
Net D/E1.2-0.11.2---1.2

Returns

ARCOBHRICKBRCBCHSNHCHLMedian
NameArcos Do.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Chanson .Happy Ci. 
1M Rtn3.4%-14.8%-14.0%-9.8%-14.0%-13.0%-13.5%
3M Rtn-1.0%1.5%-36.3%--36.6%3.8%-1.0%
6M Rtn-4.0%27.4%-44.9%--95.3%--24.5%
12M Rtn-15.1%46.5%-52.9%--99.6%--34.0%
3Y Rtn7.1%114.1%-73.0%---7.1%
1M Excs Rtn3.3%-14.9%-14.1%-9.9%-14.2%-13.1%-13.6%
3M Excs Rtn-3.3%-3.2%-40.3%--27.0%-1.0%-3.3%
6M Excs Rtn-15.9%15.5%-56.8%--107.1%--36.4%
12M Excs Rtn-24.6%39.3%-65.1%--111.1%--44.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-54.9%40.8%-140.6%----54.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment4,3323,619   
Revenues from franchised restaurants  11690147
Sales by Company-operated restaurants  2,5441,8952,812
Total4,3323,6192,6601,9842,959


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,610,992
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-12.0%
Average Daily Volume1,070,951
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.37
Basic Shares Quantity210,663,057
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202581320256-K 6/30/2025
331202551420256-K 3/31/2025
12312024429202520-F 12/31/2024
630202481420246-K 6/30/2024
331202451520246-K 3/31/2024
12312023429202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111620236-K 9/30/2023
630202381720236-K 6/30/2023
331202351720236-K 3/31/2023
12312022428202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111620226-K 9/30/2022
630202281020226-K 6/30/2022
331202251820226-K 3/31/2022
12312021429202220-F 12/31/2021
9302021111020216-K 9/30/2021
630202181120216-K 6/30/2021

Insider Activity

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