Aqua Metals (AQMS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.17 | Market Cap: $6.5 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Aqua Metals (AQMS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.17Market Cap: $6.5 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -304% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -146%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -168% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is null | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6288% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1058% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 38% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -304% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -146%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -168% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is null |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6288% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1058% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 38% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AQMS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Capital Raise: Aqua Metals successfully closed a $13 million capital raise from a prominent institutional investor in October 2025, which significantly strengthened the company's balance sheet and provided substantial funds to accelerate its commercialization strategy.
2. Strategic Partnerships and MOUs: The company announced several key collaborations within the period, including an MOU with Impossible Metals in September 2025 focused on a sustainable U.S. critical minerals supply chain, and in November 2025, an MOU with MOBY Robotics for deep-sea critical minerals refining and an LOI with Westwin Elements for U.S.-produced nickel carbonate supply. These agreements signal expanding opportunities and growing market interest in Aqua Metals' innovative technology.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AQMS Return | 297% | -59% | 2% | -39% | -83% | -68% | -95% |
| Peers Return | 74% | -12% | 28% | 16% | 58% | 23% | 341% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AQMS Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 17% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 46% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AQMS Max Drawdown | -55% | -59% | -59% | -39% | -91% | -98% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -33% | -28% | -19% | -6% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWST, GEO, CECO, FTEK, MDRN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AQMS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1325.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 190.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -98.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5111.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to CWST, GEO, CECO, FTEK, MDRN
In The Past
Aqua Metals's stock fell -93.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/26/2021. A -93.0% loss requires a 1325.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AQMS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aqua Metals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 718 |
| Op Inc LTM | 48 |
| FCF LTM | 3 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13 |
| CFO LTM | 3 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 25 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 5.9 |
| P/E | 11.9 |
| P/CFO | 13.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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