Ameresco (AMRC)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $27.3 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Ameresco (AMRC)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $27.3Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 130% Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 151% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% Key risksAMRC key risks include [1] a significant dependence on government policies and federal contracts and [2] a persistent struggle to generate positive free cash flow, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 130% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 151% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Key risksAMRC key risks include [1] a significant dependence on government policies and federal contracts and [2] a persistent struggle to generate positive free cash flow, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ameresco (AMRC) stock has lost about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Negative Outlook for Q1 2026 Earnings. Despite reporting strong Q4 2025 results on March 2, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.39 against an expected $0.32 (a 21.88% beat) and revenue of $581 million against a $556.5 million forecast (a 4.92% beat), Ameresco's stock declined. This drop was likely influenced by a weak outlook for Q1 2026, with analysts projecting a negative EPS of -$0.26 to -$0.27, representing a year-over-year decrease of approximately 145%. This guidance was attributed to factors such as weather-related disruptions affecting project execution and anticipated higher interest and depreciation expenses.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets. Ameresco experienced several analyst downgrades and significant reductions in price targets during the period. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating on January 10th, followed by Weiss Ratings, which cut its rating from "hold (c-)" to "sell (d+)" on March 5th. Most notably, UBS Group reduced its price target for Ameresco from $40.00 to $28.00 and changed its rating to "neutral" on March 13th.
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1. Negative Outlook for Q1 2026 Earnings. Despite reporting strong Q4 2025 results on March 2, 2026, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.39 against an expected $0.32 (a 21.88% beat) and revenue of $581 million against a $556.5 million forecast (a 4.92% beat), Ameresco's stock declined. This drop was likely influenced by a weak outlook for Q1 2026, with analysts projecting a negative EPS of -$0.26 to -$0.27, representing a year-over-year decrease of approximately 145%. This guidance was attributed to factors such as weather-related disruptions affecting project execution and anticipated higher interest and depreciation expenses.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets. Ameresco experienced several analyst downgrades and significant reductions in price targets during the period. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating on January 10th, followed by Weiss Ratings, which cut its rating from "hold (c-)" to "sell (d+)" on March 5th. Most notably, UBS Group reduced its price target for Ameresco from $40.00 to $28.00 and changed its rating to "neutral" on March 13th.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.8% change in AMRC stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.29 | 27.29 | -6.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,884 | 1,932 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 2.3% | -31.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.5 | 32.5 | 32.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 53 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMRC | -6.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 52.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.9% | 54.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.7% change in AMRC stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.58 | 27.29 | -18.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,859 | 1,932 | 4.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 2.3% | -31.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.5 | 32.5 | 14.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 53 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMRC | -18.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 52.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.9% | 45.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 125.9% change in AMRC stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 191.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.08 | 27.29 | 125.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,770 | 1,932 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 2.3% | -28.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 32.5 | 191.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 53 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 125.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMRC | 125.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 38.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 31.4% | 37.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -44.6% change in AMRC stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.22 | 27.29 | -44.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,824 | 1,932 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.2% | 2.3% | -56.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.9 | 32.5 | 20.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 53 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -44.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMRC | -44.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 33.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 75.6% | 37.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMRC Return | 56% | -30% | -45% | -26% | 25% | -5% | -47% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 3% | 22% | 49% | 26% | 16% | 302% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMRC Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 77% | 46% | 57% | 67% | 58% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMRC Max Drawdown | -24% | -49% | -62% | -43% | -63% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -31% | -17% | -6% | -17% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEE, CEG, JCI, ETN, TT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMRC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -77.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 349.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 120 days |
Compare to NEE, CEG, JCI, ETN, TT
In The Past
Ameresco's stock fell -77.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -77.7% loss requires a 349.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Ameresco (AMRC)
Ameresco, Inc., a clean technology integrator, provides a portfolio of energy efficiency and renewable energy supply solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability, and renewable energy solutions for businesses and organizations. The company operates through U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, and Non-Solar Distributed Generation segments. It designs, develops, engineers, and installs projects that reduce the energy, as well as operations and maintenance (O&M) costs of its customers' facilities. The company's projects primarily include various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, cooling, and lighting systems. It also offers renewable energy solutions and services, such as the construction of small-scale plants that the company owns or develops for customers that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources of energy and O&M services; and electricity, processed renewable gas fuel, and heat or cooling produced from renewable sources of energy. In addition, the company sells photovoltaic (PV) solar energy products and systems, as well as provides consulting and enterprise energy management services; and owns and operates a wind power project located in Ireland. It serves the federal, state, and local governments, as well as healthcare and educational institutions, airports, public housing authorities and public universities, and commercial and industrial customers. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 147 small-scale renewable energy plants and solar PV installations. Ameresco, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Ameresco (AMRC):
A Johnson Controls for 'green' building and energy infrastructure.
An Accenture for clean energy strategy and technology integration.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Energy Efficiency and Infrastructure Upgrades: Designs and installs projects to enhance facility efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and upgrade operational infrastructure.
- Renewable Energy Project Development & Construction: Develops, engineers, and constructs small-scale renewable energy plants for electricity, gas, heat, or cooling generation.
- Renewable Energy Asset Ownership & Operation: Owns and operates renewable energy plants and solar PV installations, generating and selling renewable electricity, gas, heat, or cooling.
- Energy Security and Resilience Solutions: Provides solutions focused on enhancing energy security, resilience, and asset sustainability for customer facilities.
- Consulting and Enterprise Energy Management: Offers consulting services and comprehensive enterprise-level solutions for energy management.
- PV Solar Products and Systems: Sells photovoltaic solar energy products and integrated systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ameresco (AMRC) primarily serves various organizational customers rather than individuals or specific named corporate clients. The company's major customers fall into the following categories:- Government Entities: This includes federal, state, and local governments.
- Public and Private Institutions: This category encompasses healthcare institutions, educational institutions (including public universities), public housing authorities, and airports.
- Commercial and Industrial Businesses: This covers a broad range of commercial and industrial customers.
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George P. Sakellaris, Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer
George P. Sakellaris founded Ameresco in April 2000. He has over 30 years of experience in the energy industry. Prior to Ameresco, Mr. Sakellaris worked at New England Electric System (NEES), where he established NEES Energy to promote energy efficiency. In 1991, he purchased NEES Energy, renamed it NORESCO, and built it into an industry-leading independent energy services company. He sold NORESCO to Equitable Resources in 1997, where he continued to lead NORESCO and was appointed as a Senior Vice President of Equitable Resources.
Mark Chiplock, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Accounting Officer
Mark Chiplock is responsible for Ameresco's financial strategy, capital management, investor relations, corporate finance, accounting, and treasury functions. He has more than 30 years of experience in business management and strategic finance. Mr. Chiplock's roles at Ameresco have included Corporate Controller (2014-2016), Vice President of Finance and Corporate Controller (2016-2018), interim CFO (2018-2019), and Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer (2019-2024). Before joining Ameresco, he served as Vice President, Finance of GlassHouse Technologies, a data center infrastructure consulting firm.
Nicole Bulgarino, President, Federal Solutions and Utility Infrastructure
Nicole Bulgarino leads Ameresco's largest business unit, focusing on advanced power generation and resilience solutions for Federal agencies and utilities.
Joshua Baribeau, Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer
Joshua Baribeau is responsible for leading Ameresco's capital markets activities, project financings, and mergers and acquisitions. He has 20 years of experience as a financial and business development executive. Since joining Ameresco in 2015, he has served as Senior Vice President of Finance and Corporate Treasury and Director of New Market Development. Prior to Ameresco, Mr. Baribeau held roles in equity research, investment analysis, and transaction execution at firms including Canaccord Genuity, First Southwest Company, and Investors Bank & Trust.
David J. Corrsin, Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary and Director
David J. Corrsin has extensive experience with energy regulations, federal, state, and local regulatory authorities, and complex energy construction and financing projects, gained through more than 23 years of energy-related legal practice. He oversees financial and regulatory issues for independent power, utility, and energy conservation projects for Ameresco. Mr. Corrsin was previously an executive vice president of Public Power International, Inc., and co-founded the Palmer & Dodge Energy Group at Palmer & Dodge, LLP.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Ameresco's business include its significant debt burden and capital-intensive nature, its dependence on government policies and contracts, and the inherent challenges in project execution, including supply chain and operational risks.
- High Debt Levels and Capital-Intensive Operations: Ameresco's business model, which involves developing, owning, and operating small-scale renewable energy plants and other energy infrastructure projects, is highly capital-intensive. This has led to significant debt accumulation, with reported debt-to-equity ratios indicating a heavy reliance on debt financing. The company has faced challenges in consistently generating positive free cash flow, further contributing to its debt burden. Rising interest rates can exacerbate this risk by increasing financing costs, impacting project viability, and potentially reducing profitability and earnings stability.
- Dependence on Government Contracts and Evolving Regulatory/Policy Landscape: A substantial portion of Ameresco's clientele consists of federal, state, and local governments, as well as other public institutions. This reliance makes the company highly susceptible to changes in government spending, budget priorities, and particularly, shifts in energy and environmental policies, incentives, and regulations. Fluctuations in government subsidies, tax credits, and renewable energy mandates can introduce significant uncertainty and make long-term financial planning challenging for both Ameresco and its potential customers. Delays in legislative processes related to government programs can also affect project demand.
- Project Execution, Supply Chain Volatility, and Operational Challenges: Ameresco faces risks related to the successful and profitable completion of its energy efficiency and renewable energy projects. Challenges include potential delays, cost overruns, and difficulties in operating projects as committed to customers. The company's operations are also exposed to global supply chain disruptions, availability and cost fluctuations of labor and equipment, tariffs, and inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the dynamic nature of the clean energy sector brings risks from intense competition and the rapid pace of technological advancements, requiring continuous innovation and efficient project delivery to maintain market position. Operational concerns such as cybersecurity incidents, grid stability issues for renewable assets, and the impact of weather-related events also pose ongoing challenges.
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The rise of advanced, AI-driven digital platforms and Energy-as-a-Service (EaaS) models that automate and standardize the design, procurement, and ongoing management of energy efficiency and distributed renewable energy solutions. These platforms could disintermediate traditional clean technology integrators by offering customers a highly streamlined, lower-cost, and more transparent pathway to implement energy upgrades and renewable assets, leveraging artificial intelligence for optimal system design, predictive maintenance, and connecting directly with commoditized hardware and installation services.AI Analysis | Feedback
Ameresco (AMRC) operates within several significant addressable markets related to energy efficiency and renewable energy solutions across North America and globally.
Energy Efficiency and Infrastructure Upgrades
- Ameresco's total addressable market within the Energy Service Company (ESCO) market is projected to grow from approximately $80 billion in 2022 to over $100 billion in 2026. This market primarily covers energy efficiency and infrastructure upgrades.
- Globally, the energy efficiency and conservation market was valued at USD 293.76 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 576.8 billion by 2031.
- The global energy-efficient building market size was USD 145.09 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 192.52 billion in 2030.
- The global industrial energy efficiency services market reached USD 12.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 18.6 billion by 2033.
- In the U.S., the power infrastructure market was valued at USD 264.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 455.6 billion by 2032.
- The Canada energy retrofit systems market is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 9,812.9 million by 2030.
Renewable Energy Solutions (Distributed Generation, Solar, Wind, etc.)
- The global distributed energy generation market was estimated at approximately USD 538.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 884.8 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global market size at USD 386.91 billion in 2025, growing to USD 924.30 billion by 2033.
- The global renewable energy market was valued at approximately USD 1.54 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 3.40 trillion by 2030 and USD 5.79 trillion by 2035.
- In the U.S., the distributed energy generation market was USD 33.19 billion in 2022, projected to reach USD 67.95 billion by 2030.
- The U.S. renewable energy market was valued at USD 260.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 579.9 billion by 2034.
- In Canada, the distributed energy generation market is expected to reach USD 11,666.6 million (approximately $11.7 billion) by 2027.
- The Canada renewable energy market generated a revenue of USD 100.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 276.9 billion by 2033.
- The Canada distributed solar power generation market is valued at approximately USD 2.2 billion (based on a five-year historical analysis).
Consulting and Enterprise Energy Management Services
- The global energy management systems market was valued at USD 36.2 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach USD 161.9 billion by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ameresco (AMRC) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Strong Project Backlog and Conversion: The company benefits from a substantial project backlog, with a total awarded backlog surpassing $2.5 billion and a total project backlog exceeding $5 billion as of late 2025. Ameresco has consistently demonstrated its ability to convert this backlog into revenue, as evidenced by an 11% increase in projects revenue in Q4 2025. This robust pipeline of contracted work provides strong visibility for future revenue generation.
- Growth in Energy Assets and Recurring Revenue: The expansion of Ameresco's owned and operated energy asset portfolio is a significant driver of recurring revenue. The company placed 121 megawatts of energy assets into operation during 2025, bringing its total operating assets to 838 megawatts. Revenue from energy assets increased by 5% in Q4 2025, reflecting the continuous growth of this portfolio.
- Expansion of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Business: Ameresco's Operations and Maintenance (O&M) segment is a growing source of stable, long-term revenue. The company reported an 11% increase in O&M revenue in Q4 2025, supported by a long-term O&M revenue backlog of approximately $1.5 billion. This business line provides consistent income as the company maintains its growing installed base.
- European Market Expansion: Ameresco is actively pursuing strategic growth in the European market through acquisitions and partnerships, particularly in solar and battery storage solutions. European operations have shown strong growth and are expected to contribute significantly to the company's overall revenue, offering diversification and substantial growth opportunities.
- Sustained Demand for Energy Infrastructure and Decarbonization Solutions: There is a robust and continued demand for Ameresco's energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrade, and renewable energy solutions across its diverse customer base, including federal, state, and local governments, as well as healthcare, educational, commercial, and industrial sectors. This strong market demand for smart energy and decarbonization solutions underpins the company's long-term growth prospects.
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Here is a summary of Ameresco's capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:Share Repurchases
- Ameresco has not engaged in significant share repurchase programs over the last 3-5 years.
- As of December 31, 2024, treasury stock held at cost was $11.788 million, with a negligible increase of 40 shares from December 31, 2023, to December 31, 2024.
- The company's 3-year average share buyback ratio is -0.5, indicating net dilution rather than significant repurchases.
Share Issuance
- Ameresco issued 224,058 Class A common shares in 2024, increasing from 36,378,990 shares issued at December 31, 2023, to 36,603,048 shares issued at December 31, 2024.
- Additional paid-in capital increased by approximately $57.4 million from $320.892 million in 2023 to $378.321 million in 2024, reflecting share issuances potentially including equity compensation.
- The company's share count has generally grown over the last five years, leading to shareholder dilution.
Inbound Investments
- In June 2025, Ameresco successfully sold approximately $71 million in Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) generated from three of its Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) projects.
- The company has completed multiple rounds of long-term debt financings for solar and battery energy storage system projects under a private shelf facility with partners such as CounterpointeSRE and Barings.
- Ameresco utilizes investment funds with third-party investors to finance the construction costs of energy assets under long-term customer contracts, which are consolidated as Variable Interest Entities (VIEs).
Outbound Investments
- Strategic acquisitions of complementary businesses and assets, along with joint venture arrangements, are noted as important components of Ameresco's growth strategy.
- Ameresco divested its AEG business at the end of 2024.
- The company actively explores accretive acquisitions and partnerships, particularly to bolster its scale in Europe focusing on solar and battery storage.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $356 million.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected to be between $300 million and $350 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the development, construction, and operation of distributed renewable energy assets, including solar installations, battery energy storage systems, and renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities. For instance, 121 MWe of energy assets were placed in service in 2025, increasing the total operating assets to 838 MWe as of December 31, 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Ameresco (AMRC -9.9%): Earnings Beat Can't Hide Plunging Profitability | 03/04/2026 | |
| Ameresco Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| How Low Can Ameresco Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Ameresco (AMRC) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Ameresco (AMRC) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Ameresco (AMRC) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Ameresco (AMRC) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Ameresco (AMRC) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Ameresco (AMRC) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Ameresco (AMRC) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Ameresco (AMRC -9.9%): Earnings Beat Can’t Hide Plunging Profitability | 03/04/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AMRC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 11302024 | AMRC | Ameresco | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -51.1% | 23.2% | -69.3% |
| 11302023 | AMRC | Ameresco | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 21.4% | -6.0% | -39.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 219.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 99.6 |
| Rev LTM | 24,750 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,561 |
| FCF LTM | 1,830 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,152 |
| CFO LTM | 3,716 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,548 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 99.6 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 27.1 |
| P/EBIT | 25.2 |
| P/E | 34.5 |
| P/CFO | 27.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 43.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 153.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 86.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project revenue | 1,339 | 1,001 | 1,481 | ||
| Energy assets | 213 | 179 | 162 | ||
| Other | 111 | 102 | 46 | 111 | 96 |
| Operations and Maintenance (O&M) revenue | 106 | 92 | 85 | ||
| Integrated - Solar photovoltaic (PV) | 50 | ||||
| Alternative Fuels | 111 | ||||
| Canada | 49 | 48 | |||
| North America Regions | 551 | 404 | |||
| United States (US) Federal | 393 | 378 | |||
| Non-Solar Distributed Generation | 106 | ||||
| Total | 1,770 | 1,375 | 1,824 | 1,216 | 1,032 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.29 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/22/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -36.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.48 | $29.54 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.7% | -7.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 63.9% | 80.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.77 | 0.61 |
| Upside Capture | 154.21 | 184.94 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.5% | 30.8% |
AMRC Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.06 | 2.99 | 2.95 | 2.60 | 1.74 | 1.78 |
| Up Beta | 1.83 | 7.08 | 5.18 | 4.42 | 1.98 | 1.64 |
| Down Beta | 0.60 | 1.74 | 2.29 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 1.48 |
| Up Capture | 366% | 329% | 373% | 261% | 343% | 645% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 33 | 62 | 128 | 355 |
| Down Capture | 232% | 235% | 225% | 195% | 120% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 30 | 64 | 122 | 393 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMRC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMRC | 158.7% | 80.4% | 1.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 33.2% | 15.2% | 1.68 | 30.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.93 | 30.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.2% | 27.2% | 1.09 | 15.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.7% | 18.1% | 1.99 | 5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 0.65 | 21.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.6% | 42.1% | -0.40 | 27.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMRC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMRC | -10.6% | 73.4% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.8% | 17.3% | 0.58 | 40.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 40.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 16.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 15.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 40.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.1% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 22.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMRC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMRC | 19.8% | 62.8% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.6% | 19.9% | 0.60 | 38.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 40.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 15.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 35.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/2/2026 | -9.9% | -15.2% | -17.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -9.3% | -10.2% | -14.8% |
| 8/4/2025 | 49.0% | 17.2% | 53.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | -35.6% | -49.3% | -32.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -16.3% | -15.4% | -14.1% |
| 8/5/2024 | 7.0% | -0.6% | 9.1% |
| 2/28/2024 | 2.9% | -3.7% | 18.5% |
| 11/6/2023 | -14.9% | -15.4% | 13.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 9.2% | 11.0% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -9.9% | -11.8% | -17.6% |
| Max Positive | 49.0% | 20.6% | 53.6% |
| Max Negative | -35.6% | -49.3% | -32.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 EPS | -0.3 | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | 2.00 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 2.20 Bil | 10.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 270.00 Mil | 283.00 Mil | 20.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 235.00 Mil for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 17.0% | 17.5% | 18.0% | 11.1% | 1.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 15.75% for 2025 |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 1.1 | 1.23 | 1.35 | 53.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.8 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 300.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 1.85 Bil | 1.90 Bil | 1.95 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.90 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 225.00 Mil | 235.00 Mil | 245.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 235.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross Margin | 15.5% | 15.75% | 16.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.75% for 2025 |
| 2025 Non-GAAP EPS | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.8 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Depreciation & Amortization | 103.00 Mil | 104.00 Mil | 105.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2025 Interest Expense & Other | 85.00 Mil | 87.50 Mil | 90.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2025 Effective Tax Rate | -50.0% | -42.5% | -35.0% | 7.5% | Higher New | ||
| 2025 Income Attributable to Non-Controlling Interest | -5.00 Mil | -6.50 Mil | -8.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiplock, Mark | EVP, CFO & CAO | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 25.31 | 273 | 6,910 | 42,166 | Form |
| 2 | Maltezos, Louis P | President-Central&West USA Can | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 25.31 | 306 | 7,745 | 812,324 | Form |
| 3 | Corrsin, David J | EVP and General Counsel | Spouse | Sell | 3122026 | 25.31 | 19 | 481 | 11,162 | Form |
| 4 | Corrsin, David J | EVP and General Counsel | Spouse | Sell | 3102026 | 26.34 | 50 | 1,317 | 9,983 | Form |
| 5 | Stavropoulos, Nickolas | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 34.15 | 15,700 | 536,155 | 481,891 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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