Ameresco (AMRC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.03 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Ameresco (AMRC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.03Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 136% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 170% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 136% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 170% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMRC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results Exceed Expectations. Ameresco's stock saw a significant jump after reporting strong second-quarter financial results on August 4, 2025, with non-GAAP earnings per share crushing Wall Street's expectations by 350% and revenue increasing by 8% year-over-year to $472.3 million. The company also announced a record total project backlog of $5.1 billion, which served as a strong indicator of future revenue.
2. Significant Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Increases in September and October 2025. Several analyst firms revised their ratings and price targets upwards for Ameresco. Notably, Jefferies upgraded AMRC from 'Hold' to 'Buy' on September 25, 2025, with a price target increase from $19.00 to $39.00, a 105.26% rise. B. Riley Securities also increased its price target from $22.00 to $32.00 on September 10, 2025, while Baird upgraded the stock to 'Outperform' with a $35.00 price target on September 2, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMRC Return | 199% | 56% | -30% | -45% | -26% | 49% | 100% |
| Peers Return | 11% | 32% | 8% | 21% | 38% | 28% | 236% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMRC Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 40% | 44% | 46% | 44% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMRC Max Drawdown | -19% | -24% | -49% | -62% | -43% | -63% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -6% | -18% | -10% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DY, FLR, GVA, CDNL, KWF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMRC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -77.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 349.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 120 days |
Compare to DY, FLR, GVA, CDNL, KWF
In The Past
Ameresco's stock fell -77.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -77.7% loss requires a 349.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMRC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ameresco
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 75.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 4,615 |
| Op Inc LTM | 180 |
| FCF LTM | 180 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 124 |
| CFO LTM | 352 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 309 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 26.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 112.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 53.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project revenue | 1,001 | 1,481 | |||
| Energy assets | 179 | 162 | |||
| Other | 102 | 46 | 111 | 96 | 92 |
| Operations and Maintenance (O&M) revenue | 92 | 85 | |||
| Integrated - Solar photovoltaic (PV) | 50 | ||||
| Alternative Fuels | 111 | ||||
| Canada | 49 | 48 | 38 | ||
| North America Regions | 551 | 404 | 365 | ||
| United States (US) Federal | 393 | 378 | 287 | ||
| Non-Solar Distributed Generation | 106 | 85 | |||
| Total | 1,375 | 1,824 | 1,216 | 1,032 | 867 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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