Tearsheet

Adecoagro (AGRO)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.67 | Market Cap: $765.2 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Adecoagro (AGRO)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.67
Market Cap: $765.2 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 139%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.1%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Consumption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Biofuel Production, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Consumption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Biofuel Production, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 139%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.1%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AGRO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I cannot fulfill this request as it pertains to future events. The requested time period (July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025) is in the future relative to the current date. I do not have access to real-time future data or events that have not yet occurred.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGRO Return-19%13%11%39%-12%-15%5%
Peers Return23%12%-3%10%-7%-13%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGRO Win Rate58%33%50%67%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate38%33%45%47%48%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGRO Max Drawdown-58%0%-6%-11%-18%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-3%-12%-11%-20%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BG, DAR, LMNR, AFRI, DTCK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGROS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven85.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven139.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven343 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven134.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven951 days120 days

Compare to BG, DAR, LMNR, AFRI, DTCK


In The Past

Adecoagro's stock fell -46.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -46.1% loss requires a 85.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Adecoagro (AGRO)

Better Bets than Adecoagro (AGRO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGRO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-7.8%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.5%-7.5%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.2%-27.2%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-7.8%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.5%-7.5%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.2%-27.2%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Adecoagro

Financials

AGROBGDARLMNRAFRIDTCKMedian
NameAdecoagroBunge Gl.Darling .LimoneiraForafric.Davis Co. 
Mkt Price7.6793.9734.4313.289.330.6611.30
Mkt Cap0.818.55.50.2--3.1
Rev LTM1,55360,1095,844161--3,699
Op Inc LTM931,552374-14--234
FCF LTM75-1,124476-13--31
FCF 3Y Avg151101428-11--126
CFO LTM324550774-0--437
CFO 3Y Avg3991,396844-0--622

Growth & Margins

AGROBGDARLMNRAFRIDTCKMedian
NameAdecoagroBunge Gl.Darling .LimoneiraForafric.Davis Co. 
Rev Chg LTM17.4%10.3%-1.1%-15.0%--4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.0%-3.2%-0.6%-3.0%---1.8%
Rev Chg Q-7.1%71.6%10.0%-25.0%--1.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.9%18.2%2.5%-9.0%--0.3%
Op Mgn LTM6.0%2.6%6.4%-8.7%--4.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.1%3.5%6.9%-8.4%--5.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.7%-0.4%0.7%-6.6%---2.0%
CFO/Rev LTM20.8%0.9%13.2%-0.2%--7.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.4%2.4%13.6%-0.3%--8.0%
FCF/Rev LTM4.8%-1.9%8.1%-7.9%--1.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.9%0.2%7.0%-6.4%--3.6%

Valuation

AGROBGDARLMNRAFRIDTCKMedian
NameAdecoagroBunge Gl.Darling .LimoneiraForafric.Davis Co. 
Mkt Cap0.818.55.50.2--3.1
P/S0.50.30.91.5--0.7
P/EBIT20.78.017.4-24.1--12.7
P/E21.514.050.6-25.9--17.7
P/CFO2.433.77.0-651.4--4.7
Total Yield9.2%8.1%2.0%-1.6%--5.1%
Dividend Yield4.6%1.0%0.0%2.3%--1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.4%1.0%7.2%-4.0%--4.1%
D/E1.71.00.80.3--0.9
Net D/E1.40.80.80.3--0.8

Returns

AGROBGDARLMNRAFRIDTCKMedian
NameAdecoagroBunge Gl.Darling .LimoneiraForafric.Davis Co. 
1M Rtn2.6%-2.9%8.7%-8.7%8.5%-16.4%-0.1%
3M Rtn-14.8%18.5%11.0%-14.7%19.8%-16.6%-1.9%
6M Rtn-16.1%18.9%0.9%-16.6%19.8%10.7%5.8%
12M Rtn-29.7%8.2%-20.0%-48.8%-8.2%-34.1%-24.9%
3Y Rtn6.8%1.9%-51.8%3.2%-21.2%-1.9%
1M Excs Rtn2.5%-3.0%8.6%-8.8%8.4%-16.5%-0.3%
3M Excs Rtn-10.0%14.4%7.0%-19.1%16.0%-21.7%-1.5%
6M Excs Rtn-27.9%7.0%-11.0%-28.5%7.9%-1.2%-6.1%
12M Excs Rtn-40.4%1.6%-29.5%-61.4%-21.2%-48.1%-34.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-61.3%-67.6%-122.4%-65.7%-83.7%--67.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Sugar, Ethanol and Energy722631562411532
Rice256204131103102
Dairy24723617313585
Crops217280232170169
Corporate000  
Adjustment-144-427-5-4
All Other Segments   34
Total1,2991,3481,124818887


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Sugar, Ethanol and Energy22021319113195
Rice3420332713
Dairy1821161110
Crops919493021
Adjustment-15111-1-0
Corporate-24-24-22-20-20
All Other Segments   3-1
Land Transformation   83
Total242250278189121


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Sugar, Ethanol and Energy1,380   998
Crops637   604
Cash and cash equivalents340   290
Rice332   221
Trade and other receivables218   172
Dairy138   112
Short-term investment63    
Derivative financial instruments32   1
Intangible assets (excluding goodwill)13   14
Deferred income tax assets10   14
Other assets2   1
Corporate1   1
All Other Segments    93
Total3,165   2,521


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,309,000
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520256.4%
Average Daily Volume438,727
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.98
Basic Shares Quantity99,761,364
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202581820256-K 6/30/2025
331202551220256-K 3/31/2025
12312024425202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111320246-K 9/30/2024
630202481220246-K 6/30/2024
331202451620246-K 3/31/2024
12312023426202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111320236-K 9/30/2023
630202381720236-K 6/30/2023
331202351120236-K 3/31/2023
12312022426202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110920226-K 9/30/2022
630202281120226-K 6/30/2022
331202251220226-K 3/31/2022
12312021428202220-F 12/31/2021
9302021111020216-K 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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