Forafric Global (AFRI)
Market Price (3/29/2026): $9.46 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services
Forafric Global (AFRI)
Market Price (3/29/2026): $9.46Market Cap: $-Sector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Agricultural Products & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 54.99 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Key risksAFRI key risks include [1] precarious financial health, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 54.99 |
| Key risksAFRI key risks include [1] precarious financial health, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Persistent Unprofitability and Declining Revenue. Forafric Global has consistently reported significant losses, with its earnings declining at an average annual rate of 27.7% over the past five years. In 2024, the company's losses increased by 91.9% to -$24.33 million, while revenues have been decreasing at an average rate of 6.6% per year.
2. Strategic Restructuring and Leadership Transition. In February 2025, Forafric Global announced a strategic shift to enhance its focus on Morocco and soft wheat, which involves divesting non-core assets. This divestment program is anticipated to generate gross proceeds between $80 million and $100 million. Concurrently, Mr. Khalid Assari was appointed as the new CEO at the end of 2024, replacing the retiring Mr. Mustapha Jamaleddine. Such a significant strategic overhaul and leadership change can introduce short-term uncertainty for investors, potentially affecting stock performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRI | -9.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 11.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 3.9% | 5.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRI | 7.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 7.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.8% | 5.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRI | 2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 26.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.1% | 13.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRI | -16.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 23.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 23.1% | 13.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AFRI Return | - | 32% | -5% | -3% | 8% | -15% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 13% | 8% | -34% | 23% | 21% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AFRI Win Rate | - | 57% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 63% | 50% | 33% | 60% | 87% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AFRI Max Drawdown | - | -29% | -8% | -5% | -25% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -12% | -13% | -35% | -19% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADM, BG, SEB, ANDE, MGPI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AFRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 464 days |
Compare to ADM, BG, SEB, ANDE, MGPI
In The Past
Forafric Global's stock fell -40.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/13/2022. A -40.0% loss requires a 66.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Forafric Global (AFRI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
An African General Mills, but focused on milling wheat and making everyday staples like flour, pasta, and couscous.
Imagine an Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) that directly sells pasta and couscous to African consumers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Flour: Forafric Global produces and distributes various types of flour.
- Semolina: The company manufactures and distributes semolina, a coarsely ground durum wheat product.
- Pasta: Forafric Global is involved in the production and distribution of pasta products.
- Couscous: The company manufactures and distributes couscous, a traditional grain-based food.
- Animal Feed: Forafric Global also produces and distributes animal feed for livestock.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Forafric Global (AFRI) is an agribusiness company primarily operating in Morocco, engaged in the production and distribution of a wide range of agri-food products, including flour, semolina, pasta, couscous, corn products, and animal feed.
The company primarily sells to other companies (B2B). Forafric Global explicitly states that no single customer accounts for 10% or more of its total revenue, indicating a diversified customer base without individually "major" customer companies that can be named. Instead, its customer base consists of the following categories of business customers:
- Retail Chains: This category includes hypermarkets and supermarkets primarily in Morocco, and to a lesser extent internationally. These large-scale retail outlets sell Forafric's finished products directly to end consumers.
- Wholesalers and Semi-Wholesalers: These businesses purchase Forafric's products in bulk for redistribution to smaller retail outlets, traditional stores, and various other commercial customers across Morocco and in international markets.
- Industrial Clients: This includes other food manufacturing companies or businesses that utilize Forafric's products, such as flour or semolina, as raw materials or ingredients in their own production processes. Examples could include bakeries, snack manufacturers, and producers of other processed food items or animal feed.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Forafric Global's major suppliers include:
- Bunge (Symbol: BG)
- Archer Daniels Midland (Symbol: ADM)
- Cargill
- Louis Dreyfus Company
- Cofco International
- Glencore Agriculture (Viterra)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Khalid Assari Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Khalid Assari was appointed CEO and Chairman of the Board of Forafric Global, effective April 4, 2025, succeeding Saad Bendidi as Chairman. Mr. Assari brings extensive experience in the agricultural business, having held several senior positions within Caisse de Dépôts (CDG Group). He holds an MBA in finance.
Julien Benitah Chief Financial Officer
Julien Benitah was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Forafric Global PLC on June 15, 2022. He joined Forafric in 2015 as M&A Director and became CFO of Forafric Group in 2020. Prior to Forafric, Mr. Benitah worked at Société Générale and Rothschild, and also founded an M&A boutique in France.
Saad Bendidi Former Chairman
Saad Bendidi served as Chairman of Forafric Global PLC until April 4, 2025. He possesses over 30 years of professional experience in various leadership roles across industrial sectors including agro-industry, telecommunications, banking, and insurance. Mr. Bendidi is currently Chairman & Senior Partner at Mediterrania Capital Partners Ltd., which is an investment manager and private equity firm, indicating a pattern of involvement with private equity-backed companies. He previously held positions such as Chairman & Chief Executive Officer at Al Mada SA and Chief Executive Officer at Saham Group SA.
Mustapha Ghazali Chief Technology Officer
Mustapha Ghazali is the Chief Technology Officer. He joined Tria in 2013 as a unit Manager and became CTO of the Forafric Group in 2018. Before joining Forafric, Mr. Ghazali gained experience at SANIA as Unit Manager and CTO, developing recognized expertise in wheat crushing and brownfield projects.
Oury Marciano Vice President, Business Development
Oury Marciano serves as the Vice President, Business Development for Forafric Global. He joined the Forafric Group in 2016 as Head of Business Development. Mr. Marciano has over 12 years of professional experience in strategic consulting with CBM Group and in investment banking with Societe Generale CIB.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlHere are the key risks to Forafric Global (AFRI) in order from most significant to less significant:
- Dependence on Quality Raw Materials and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: As a vertically integrated agribusiness specializing in grain milling and agricultural commodities, Forafric Global's operations are inherently reliant on the consistent availability and quality of raw materials such as wheat and other grains. The company's ability to obtain these quality raw materials is a stated risk. Factors such as adverse weather conditions, climate change, geopolitical events, and market fluctuations can disrupt the supply chain, impact crop yields, and lead to increased commodity prices, thereby affecting the company's production costs and profitability. Concerns about global food supply, exacerbated by geopolitical conditions, highlight the vulnerability of such businesses.
- Financial Oversight, Governance, and Compliance with Listing Rules: Forafric Global has experienced issues with financial oversight and governance, evidenced by its recent non-compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(2) due to the late filing of an interim balance sheet and income statement in January 2025. Although the company subsequently filed the required report and regained compliance, the initial lapse raises concerns about its financial management and adherence to regulatory requirements. Such events can damage the company's reputation, erode investor confidence, and potentially impact its ability to access capital on favorable terms.
- Competitive Landscape and Pricing Pressures: Operating in the agribusiness sector across multiple countries, including Morocco and Sub-Saharan Africa, Forafric Global faces significant competition. Changes in the size and nature of this competition are identified as a risk. The company's core business segments, including grain milling, agricultural commodities trading, and packaged consumer goods, are subject to competitive pricing pressures that can impact profit margins. Intense competition could lead to reduced market share or force the company to lower prices, affecting its financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlForafric Global (AFRI) operates in several key agricultural commodity markets, including flour, semolina, pasta, and couscous across Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Here are the addressable market sizes for its main products and services:
Flour Markets
- Europe Flour Market: The market size was valued at USD 104.03 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 152.75 billion by 2034, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.36%. Specifically, the commercial flour market in Europe generated USD 19.6 billion in revenue in 2025. The EU whole-wheat flour sales are projected to grow from USD 48,140.0 million in 2025 to USD 76,653.0 million by 2035, with a CAGR of 4.8%. The non-wheat flour market in Europe is forecast to reach 4.5 million tons and $3.1 billion by 2035.
- Africa Wheat Flour Market: This market is likely to be valued at US$23.9 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$35.5 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.8%. The overall wheat flour market value in Africa was estimated at over US$ 19 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach US$ 34 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.9%.
- Middle East & Africa Wheat Flour Market: The market is expected to reach US$ 12,429.74 million by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 2.1% from 2020 to 2027.
Semolina Markets
- Global Semolina Market: The market size was valued at USD 2,028.8 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 3,000 million by 2035, at a CAGR of 3.6%. Another estimate places the global semolina market size at 2.14 USD billion in 2024, projected to grow to 2.752 USD billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 2.31%.
- Europe Semolina Market: This market was valued at USD 800 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,100 million in 2035. Europe accounts for approximately 30% of the global semolina market share.
Durum Wheat Markets
- Europe Durum Wheat Market: The market is expected to reach a value of USD 14.32 billion by 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.82% from 2024 to 2032. Europe's durum wheat production is projected at 8.3–8.9 million tons in 2025.
Pasta Markets
- Global Pasta Market: Retail sales of dried pasta globally amounted to 30.9 billion US dollars in 2024.
- Europe Pasta Market: The market size was estimated at USD 24.25 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 40.35 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.82%. Another report indicates the Europe pasta and noodles market generated a revenue of USD 13,701.4 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 17,964.4 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.8%. The Pasta Production industry in Europe has a market size of €20.8 billion (approximately USD 22.8 billion) in 2026.
- Africa Pasta Market: The African market for dried, undried, and frozen pasta is projected to grow to $2.4 billion by 2035. In 2024, total consumption reached $1.8 billion. Africa's pasta production reached approximately 1.2 million metric tons in 2024 and is expected to exceed 1.5 million tons by 2035.
- Morocco Pasta Market: This market is expected to grow at a significant CAGR of 6.5% during 2025-2031. The Morocco Pasta and Noodles Market is projected to see mixed growth patterns from 2025 to 2029, starting at 5.69% in 2025 and peaking at 7.59% in 2028. The Moroccan market for rice, pasta, and noodles had retail value sales of MAD 4.7 billion (approximately USD 470 million) as of 2024, with expectations to reach MAD 5.8 billion (approximately USD 580 million) over the forecast period at a CAGR of 4%.
- Middle East & Africa Pasta and Noodles Market: The market size was estimated at USD 5,232.1 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 7,038.4 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.2%.
Couscous Markets
- Global Couscous Market: The global couscous market size was valued at USD 32.83 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 45.25 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.63%.
- Morocco Couscous Market: The market size reached USD 506.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 791.2 million by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 4.84%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Forafric Global (AFRI) expects its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years to be driven by several key strategic initiatives. These drivers are largely focused on expanding its operational capabilities and market reach within the African agribusiness sector.
- Increased Production Capacity and Efficiency: Forafric Global is actively expanding its milling and crushing capacity. In 2023, the company reported extending its crushing capacity in Morocco by 370 tons per day, with a goal to continue increasing capacity at a manageable pace. This expansion allows the company to process more raw materials and, consequently, increase its output of flour, semolina, pasta, and couscous.
- Strategic Acquisitions: The company has demonstrated a strategy of growth through acquisitions. A notable example is the acquisition of 90% of Société Industrielle de Minoterie du Sud (SIMS) in July 2023, which added an additional 300 tons of capacity per day. Such acquisitions are expected to contribute to an expanded operational footprint and increased market share.
- Geographic Expansion in Africa: Forafric Global has a stated intention to continue expanding its presence both in Morocco and across Sub-Saharan Africa. As a leading agribusiness player in the region, this expansion aims to capitalize on growing food security needs and tap into new markets and customer bases.
- Expansion of Value-Added Product Portfolio: The company's integrated business model, which includes the production of flour, semolina, and secondary processing products like pasta and couscous under brands such as TRIA and MayMouna, suggests a focus on developing and expanding its range of value-added consumer goods. This approach, coupled with a focus on innovation, can lead to increased revenue through a diversified product offering that caters to evolving consumer demands.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlShare Repurchases
- In 2022, Forafric Global PLC bought back and cancelled 1,179,722 ordinary shares through "Buy Back Contracts" to satisfy Forward Purchase Agreements.
Share Issuance
- In June 2022, Forafric Global PLC raised $44.8 million in new capital, including $19.4 million from a SPAC trust account, when it commenced trading on Nasdaq following a business combination with Globis Acquisition Corp.
Inbound Investments
- The business combination with Globis Acquisition Corp in June 2022 generated $44.8 million in new capital for the company.
- As of March 2026, a proposed transaction is underway for Cap Holding SA to potentially gain a controlling interest in Forafric Maroc SA, an indirect subsidiary. This deal is subject to Moroccan antitrust commission and board approvals.
Outbound Investments
- Forafric acquired the SIMS mill in Marrakesh, increasing its crushing capacity to over 300 tons per day.
Capital Expenditures
- In May 2024, Forafric announced a plan to lease and operate an existing milling facility in the Meknes-Fes region of Morocco under a 10-year renewable contract, aiming to increase milling capacity by approximately 600 tons per day. This expansion was planned with low capital investment and operations were expected to transition by Q3 2024.
- The company's capital expenditures for the most recent quarter amounted to approximately -$0.160 million.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AFRI.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 72.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 11,009 |
| Op Inc LTM | 239 |
| FCF LTM | 6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 308 |
| CFO LTM | 568 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 599 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.1 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 64.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 34.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 39.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 53.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.31 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/10/2022 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.82 | $9.15 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.2% | 1.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.2% | 30.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Upside Capture | 3.85 | 32.51 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.5% | 24.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| Up Beta | 1.94 | 2.01 | 1.70 | 1.58 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| Down Beta | -0.14 | 0.06 | -0.25 | -0.45 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| Up Capture | 34% | -13% | -12% | 24% | 24% | 8% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 16 | 26 | 58 | 103 | 337 |
| Down Capture | 75% | 63% | 27% | -0% | 39% | 66% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 33 | 61 | 130 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRI | 8.5% | 30.7% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 4.6% | 13.9% | 0.09 | 14.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 24.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 23.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 22.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRI | 3.0% | 37.4% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.8% | 13.2% | 0.30 | 13.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 17.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 13.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 6.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRI | 1.5% | 37.4% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.3% | 14.7% | 0.37 | 13.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 17.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 13.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 6.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Industry Resources
| Agricultural Products & Services Resources |
| AgFunder Network Partners |
| The Packer |
| CropLife |
| Agri-Pulse |
| USDA Data |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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| FinViz |
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