Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $6.935 | Market Cap: $908.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $6.935Market Cap: $908.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 30%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 26% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -96% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -85 Mil Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -155%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -67%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -551% Key risksARI key risks include [1] a significant collateral concentration in New York residential properties, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 30%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 26% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -96% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -85 Mil |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -155%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -67%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -551% |
| Key risksARI key risks include [1] a significant collateral concentration in New York residential properties, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) stock has lost about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Board Approval of Liquidation and Dissolution Plan.
On June 15, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's (ARI) Board of Directors announced its determination that the dissolution of the company, the liquidation of its assets, and the winding down of its business were advisable, subject to stockholder approval. This strategic shift from an active real estate investment trust to a liquidation entity fundamentally altered investor expectations for future growth and profitability, contributing to a negative trend in the stock price as the company signaled its intent to return capital rather than continue operations.
2. Substantial Dividend Payment and Ex-Dividend Impact.
Concurrent with the liquidation announcement, ARI declared a significant cash dividend of $3.75 per share of common stock, payable on July 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on June 30, 2026. This dividend was largely classified as a return of capital. Given ARI's stock price was around $10-$11 per share at the time of the declaration, this substantial payout resulted in a significant ex-dividend price adjustment on July 16, 2026, directly causing a sharp decline in the share price within the specified period.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) stock has lost about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Board Approval of Liquidation and Dissolution Plan.
On June 15, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's (ARI) Board of Directors announced its determination that the dissolution of the company, the liquidation of its assets, and the winding down of its business were advisable, subject to stockholder approval. This strategic shift from an active real estate investment trust to a liquidation entity fundamentally altered investor expectations for future growth and profitability, contributing to a negative trend in the stock price as the company signaled its intent to return capital rather than continue operations.
2. Substantial Dividend Payment and Ex-Dividend Impact.
Concurrent with the liquidation announcement, ARI declared a significant cash dividend of $3.75 per share of common stock, payable on July 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on June 30, 2026. This dividend was largely classified as a return of capital. Given ARI's stock price was around $10-$11 per share at the time of the declaration, this substantial payout resulted in a significant ex-dividend price adjustment on July 16, 2026, directly causing a sharp decline in the share price within the specified period.
3. Realized Losses from Commercial Real Estate Loan Portfolio Sale.
ARI reported a Distributable Earnings loss of ($2.62) per diluted share for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026). This significant loss was primarily driven by a $339.1 million net realized loss on investments and a $30.7 million loss on extinguishment of debt, both directly attributable to the sale of its commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding Ltd. on April 24, 2026. Although the sale occurred just prior to the analysis period, the financial impact and reporting within fiscal Q2 2026 confirmed substantial losses associated with the wind-down of its core business, negatively affecting investor sentiment and book value per share, which declined to approximately $8.47 by June 30, 2026.
4. Persistent Macroeconomic Headwinds in Commercial Real Estate.
The broader commercial real estate (CRE) market continued to face significant challenges throughout fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026, marked by elevated interest rates and ongoing property valuation adjustments. While the Federal Reserve maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, market speculation about potential future rate hikes, fueled by rising oil prices and inflation, maintained pressure on the cost of capital for CRE investments. This environment created persistent refinancing challenges and tempered the pace of recovery in many CRE sectors, contributing to the context in which ARI's board opted for liquidation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.9% change in ARI stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -420.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.13 | 6.93 | -2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 263 | -85 | -132.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 48.2% | -154.6% | -420.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.8 | 6.9 | -12.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 131 | 6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | -2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.5% | 13.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.3% | 8.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.7% change in ARI stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.88 | 6.93 | 0.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 276 | -85 | -131.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 50.1% | -154.6% | -408.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.9 | 6.9 | -0.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 131 | 6.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 38.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.1% | 32.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.0% change in ARI stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.82 | 6.93 | 19.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 157 | -85 | -154.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.2 | -10.6 | -305.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 131 | 6.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 19.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.2% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.1% | 33.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.1% change in ARI stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.63 | 6.93 | 23.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 313 | -85 | -127.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 46.2% | -154.6% | -434.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.5 | 6.9 | 25.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 141 | 131 | 7.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 23.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.2% | 45.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 70.0% | 48.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARI Return | 30% | -7% | 24% | -17% | 24% | 13% | 75% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -21% | 27% | -3% | 2% | -13% | 16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARI Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 45% | 53% | 53% | 55% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARI Max Drawdown | -21% | -37% | -30% | -21% | -19% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -30% | -27% | -19% | -23% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STWD, BXMT, ABR, LADR, BRSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 426 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ARI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 426 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily focused on providing debt financing within the commercial real estate sector across the United States. Established in 2009, the company specializes in originating, acquiring, investing in, and actively managing various commercial real estate-related debt instruments.
The company's main products and services revolve around lending to commercial property owners and developers. This includes offering commercial first mortgage loans, which are typically secured by the underlying real estate, as well as providing subordinate financings. Additionally, ARI engages in other types of commercial real estate-related debt investments, effectively serving as a key capital provider in the U.S. commercial property market.
As a qualified REIT, ARI benefits from a specific tax advantage: it is not subject to federal income taxes, provided it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. This structure makes ARI an appealing investment for those seeking income derived from a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate debt, as profits are largely passed through to shareholders.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI):
- Like Rocket Mortgage, but exclusively for commercial properties like office buildings, hotels, and shopping centers.
- A specialized bank for commercial real estate, providing loans for large projects instead of consumer banking services.
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- Commercial First Mortgage Loans: The company originates, acquires, invests in, and manages loans secured by a first lien on commercial properties.
- Subordinate Financings: These involve debt instruments that are junior in priority to first mortgage loans in the event of default or bankruptcy.
- Other Commercial Real Estate-Related Debt Investments: This category includes various other debt instruments related to commercial real estate beyond first mortgages and subordinate financings.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) operates as a lender in the commercial real estate market. Its primary "customers" are the entities that borrow money for commercial real estate projects. These are primarily other companies, not individuals.
Given the nature of its lending business, ARI typically does not have a few publicly disclosed "major customer companies" in the traditional sense, as its borrowers are numerous and project-specific. Instead, its customer base consists of various types of commercial real estate entities seeking financing. The major categories of these commercial customers include:
- Commercial Real Estate Developers: Companies engaged in the acquisition, development, and construction of various commercial property types, such as office buildings, retail centers, industrial facilities, hospitality venues, and multi-family residential complexes.
- Commercial Real Estate Investors and Property Owners: Firms or institutional investors that acquire, own, and manage existing commercial properties, seeking financing for new acquisitions, refinancing existing debt, or capital improvements.
- Institutional Sponsors and Funds: Investment funds, private equity firms, or other institutional entities that sponsor or invest in commercial real estate projects and require debt financing to leverage their equity investments.
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Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)
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Mr. Rothstein has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) since March 2012. He was also the company's Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary from September 2009 through April 2013, and served as interim Chief Financial Officer from January 2022 to April 2022. Since 2009, he has been a Partner and the Chief Operating Officer-Real Estate of Apollo. Before joining Apollo in 2009, Mr. Rothstein was a Co-Managing Partner of Four Corners Properties, a privately held real estate investment company. His prior experience includes senior positions at KKR Financial Advisors, LLC, RBC Capital Markets, and Related Capital Company. He began his real estate career at Spieker Properties, an office REIT that was later acquired by Equity Office Properties, where he was CFO in 1999. Mr. Rothstein has also held directorship and chairman roles for other Apollo-managed entities, including Apollo Realty Income Solutions, Inc., Apollo Asset Backed Credit Company LLC, and Apollo Diversified Real Estate Fund.
Anastasia Mironova, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Secretary
Ms. Mironova has served as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. since April 2022. Prior to joining Apollo in 2022, she was a Partner in the Real Estate & Construction Services group at BDO USA, LLP. Before her time at BDO, she was a Managing Director in the Real Estate practice at Deloitte & Touche. Her career in public accounting has primarily focused on serving financial services companies, with a particular emphasis on public mortgage REITs. Additionally, Ms. Mironova has served as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary of Apollo Realty Income Solutions, Inc. (ARIS) since March 2025, and previously as ARIS' Interim CFO, Treasurer, and Secretary from March 2024 to March 2025.
Scott Weiner, Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Weiner is the Chief Investment Officer of ARI's manager and a Partner at Apollo, where he leads the global commercial real estate debt business. He is responsible for overseeing Apollo's activities related to performing commercial real estate loan origination, acquisition, and asset management. Before joining Apollo in 2009, Mr. Weiner was a Managing Director at Barclays Capital, where he led the group responsible for large mortgage loans and structured finance transactions. Prior to that, he served as Senior Vice President at Lehman Brothers in the commercial real estate finance area, specializing in structured first mortgage, mezzanine, and preferred equity investments. Mr. Weiner was also instrumental in the process of taking Apollo Commercial Real Estate public. His involvement with Apollo's real estate arm since its formation in 2008 or 2009, which was assembling a team to raise an opportunistic property fund, demonstrates a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms (Apollo Global Management).
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The key risks for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) primarily stem from its nature as a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on commercial debt investments and its recent strategic repositioning.
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Macroeconomic Volatility and Credit Risk: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's operations and financial performance are highly susceptible to macroeconomic volatility, particularly fluctuations in interest rates and broader real estate market dynamics. Rising interest rates can increase borrowing costs for the company, making it more expensive to finance new acquisitions or refinance existing debt. Moreover, these conditions can hinder borrowers' ability to meet interest payments on their commercial first mortgage loans and subordinate financings, potentially leading to material losses for ARI and diminished earnings during economic downturns. Such volatility directly impacts the valuation and liquidity of ARI's commercial real estate assets and its capacity to generate consistent returns for shareholders.
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High Leverage and Liquidity Risks: As a commercial real estate finance REIT, ARI inherently relies on borrowed capital, leading to a significant leverage profile. This high leverage poses risks, especially in volatile market conditions. Should market dynamics shift unfavorably, or if the company faces challenges in meeting its debt covenants, its financial stability and liquidity could be impacted. REITs are generally required to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income, leaving less retained earnings for reinvestment and making them more dependent on external debt or equity financing for growth, which can exacerbate leverage and associated risks.
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Strategic Uncertainty and External Management: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is externally managed by Apollo Global Management. While this can provide access to expertise, it also presents potential concerns regarding operational effectiveness, especially if any principal losses occur, which could negatively affect shareholder value and investor confidence in loan underwriting practices. The company recently announced a definitive agreement to sell nearly its entire commercial real estate loan portfolio. While this transaction aims to unlock liquidity and address a long-standing disconnect between its book value and share price, it introduces a period of strategic uncertainty. The company will be exploring new commercial real estate investment strategies, and if a suitable plan is not identified by year-end, Apollo intends to recommend that ARI's board explore all strategic alternatives, including potential dissolution of the company. This uncertainty around future investment strategies and their execution poses a significant risk to the company's long-term performance and shareholder value.
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The addressable market for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)'s main products and services, which include commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments, is the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) debt market.
As of the first quarter of 2024, the total level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding in the United States was approximately $4.70 trillion. Other reports indicate the total outstanding commercial real estate debt through Q2 2025 was $4.80 trillion. This market encompasses commercial first mortgage loans, which represent a significant portion of the overall commercial real estate debt. For instance, first liens accounted for 92 percent of the dollar volume closed by commercial mortgage bankers in 2024. Subordinate financings are also a component within this broader commercial real estate debt market.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market conditions.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for ARI:
- Continued Loan Origination and Portfolio Expansion: ARI has demonstrated robust loan origination activity, committing billions to new loans and growing its portfolio significantly in 2025. This trend is expected to continue, supported by anticipated improved borrower demand for transitional capital in the commercial real estate sector and a favorable regulatory environment for specialty finance lenders. The company's focus on originating senior floating-rate first mortgage loans across North America and Europe is central to its strategy of earning substantial interest income.
- Strategic Capital Deployment Post-Loan Portfolio Sale: A significant driver for future revenue growth is the company's definitive agreement to sell nearly its entire commercial real estate loan portfolio. This transaction is anticipated to provide ARI with approximately $1.4 billion in net cash upon closing, offering substantial liquidity for future investments. The strategic deployment of this capital into new, high-quality assets and investment opportunities is expected to generate new revenue streams.
- Monetization of Real Estate Owned (REO) Assets: ARI is actively focused on enhancing and ultimately monetizing its real estate owned (REO) assets, such as "The Brook" multifamily tower. The company is pursuing value-add projects and working towards stabilizing these assets to maximize their value for sale. An improving commercial real estate landscape in 2026 is expected to facilitate the efficient sale of these assets, contributing to future revenue.
- Capital Rotation into Higher-Yielding Investments: Management has indicated an intense focus on executing value maximization plans for its assets, which involves converting underperforming capital into higher-yielding reinvestment opportunities. This ongoing capital rotation strategy is expected to positively impact ARI's earnings and, consequently, revenue in 2025 and throughout 2026 by optimizing the overall return of its investment portfolio.
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Share Repurchases
- Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance completed a buyback of 18,846,037 shares for US$168.4 million in full year 2025.
- A share repurchase program was authorized with $70 million on October 28, 2021, and an additional $70 million on October 25, 2022, for a total authorization of $140 million.
- For the nine months ended September 27, 2025, ARI repurchased $8.6 million in common stock, and $27.0 million for the nine months ended September 28, 2024.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares issued and outstanding increased from 138,174,636 in 2024 to 138,943,831 in 2025, reflecting an issuance of 769,195 shares.
- Following the sale of its loan portfolio, Apollo Global Management's reduced annual management fee will be paid in shares of common stock during an evaluation period.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance committed $4.4 billion to new loans and provided $899 million in add-on fundings for existing loans.
- For the first half of 2025, the company committed $2.0 billion to new loans.
- As of January 28, 2026, ARI entered into an agreement to sell its entire approximately $9 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding Ltd. for a purchase price based on 99.7% of total loan commitments.
Peer Outperformance in Mortgage REITs
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | 5.7% | 134.1% | 133.9% | IBKR 512% · SNEX 252% · GS 187% |
| Reinsurance | 6 | 19.3% | 80.7% | 117.8% | SPNT 140% · MTG 130% · RGA 128% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 37.4% | 131.6% | 101.7% | JPM 153% · CM 148% · RY 135% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 19 | 11.2% | 56.2% | 84.8% | UNM 285% · FG 197% · MFC 172% |
| Regional Banks | 263 | 25.9% | 86.0% | 64.5% | GCBC 395% · ESQ 364% · NBN 297% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 11.1% | 74.2% | 63.8% | ASIC 2583900% · HRTG 433% · UVE 278% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 13.5% | 78.4% | 57.8% | GNW 176% · L 101% · SLF 86% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 10.1% | 87.8% | 34.4% | ENVA 660% · EZPW 391% · FCFS 185% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 6 | 1.4% | 16.7% | 33.9% | JEF 78% · BRK-B 73% · VOYA 66% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | -9.5% | 11.4% | 33.7% | LIFE 571% · AJG 94% · ARX 87% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 83 | -8.7% | 23.5% | 25.5% | SII 341% · WT 303% · VCTR 289% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -1.6% | 14.2% | 13.9% | VIRT 216% · CBOE 156% · CME 69% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 12 | -31.1% | 19.6% | 4.5% | FNMA 474% · FMCC 460% · ESNT 60% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 18.7% | 53.6% | 3.7% | EFC 36% · CACC 4% · HASI -14% |
| Mortgage REITs ← | 34 | -7.2% | 13.6% | -11.5% | RITM 61% · NREF 53% · DX 41% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 15 | 1.4% | 8.4% | -41.3% | MA 65% · V 65% · CPAY 58% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 21 | -29.3% | -4.7% | -45.9% | BTCS 584% · OPY 176% · LPLA 153% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 5 | -6.3% | 63.2% | -58.0% | FRHC 166% · EQH 80% · TMS -58% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 400 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9 |
| FCF LTM | 207 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 248 |
| CFO LTM | 207 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 267 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -78.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -69.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -5.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 57.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 64.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 57.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 62.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/24/2009 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.84 | $6.72 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.3% | 3.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 20.5% | 20.1% |
| Downside Capture | 71.40 | 53.83 |
| Upside Capture | 49.06 | 53.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.0% | 30.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.50 | -0.02 | 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| Up Beta | -0.81 | -0.90 | -0.70 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| Down Beta | -0.22 | -0.40 | -0.32 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.74 |
| Up Capture | 71% | 13% | 28% | 52% | 42% | 50% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 18 | 27 | 57 | 121 | 370 |
| Down Capture | 149% | 62% | 79% | 84% | 56% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 25 | 36 | 66 | 122 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 11.5% | 20.3% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.1% | 14.6% | 0.44 | 35.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.22 | 30.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 28.8% | 1.10 | 12.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.2% | 20.2% | 1.66 | -14.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.8% | 0.64 | 42.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.6% | 44.1% | -0.73 | 9.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.0% | 30.6% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.1% | 18.4% | 0.41 | 56.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 11.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.6% | 0.41 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 62.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.8% | 0.38 | 23.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 7.0% | 44.0% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.5% | 22.0% | 0.56 | 47.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 42.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.7% | 16.2% | 0.64 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.0% | 0.36 | 18.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 53.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 12.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/13/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -0.3% | -1.5% | -3.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.5% | 1.9% | 8.1% |
| 4/25/2025 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 17 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 11.3% | 31.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.8% | -6.9% | -10.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -0.3% | -1.5% | -3.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.5% | 1.9% | 8.1% |
| 4/25/2025 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| 4/29/2024 | -9.8% | -5.8% | -8.5% |
| 2/7/2024 | -4.9% | -4.6% | -0.6% |
| 10/31/2023 | 2.2% | 5.1% | 8.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.2% | -6.9% | 1.6% |
| 2/9/2023 | 4.4% | 6.4% | -10.6% |
| 10/25/2022 | 1.3% | 0.2% | 6.5% |
| 7/27/2022 | 4.9% | 1.2% | 4.9% |
| 4/26/2022 | -1.5% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| 2/9/2022 | -3.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.5% | 0.4% | -5.6% |
| 7/27/2021 | 0.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| 4/23/2021 | -1.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 2/10/2021 | 2.8% | 1.4% | 18.2% |
| 10/26/2020 | 4.2% | 3.9% | 31.8% |
| 7/31/2020 | -1.5% | 2.0% | -3.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 17 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 11.3% | 31.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.8% | -6.9% | -10.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/08/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/10/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whonder, Carmencita NM | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 10.93 | 4,574 | 49,993 | 271,051 | Form | |
| 2 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 10.16 | 52,072 | 529,135 | 2,334,211 | Form |
| 3 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 10.78 | 52,073 | 561,269 | 3,037,177 | Form |
| 4 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 9.83 | 52,074 | 511,820 | 3,281,351 | Form |
| 5 | Biderman, Mark C | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 9.48 | 10,000 | 94,800 | 576,261 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whonder, Carmencita NM | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 10.93 | 4,574 | 49,993 | 271,051 | Form | |
| 2 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 10.16 | 52,072 | 529,135 | 2,334,211 | Form |
| 3 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 10.78 | 52,073 | 561,269 | 3,037,177 | Form |
| 4 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 9.83 | 52,074 | 511,820 | 3,281,351 | Form |
| 5 | Biderman, Mark C | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 9.48 | 10,000 | 94,800 | 576,261 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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