Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $10.16 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $10.16Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 569% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% Key risksARI key risks include [1] a significant collateral concentration in New York residential properties, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 569% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Key risksARI key risks include [1] a significant collateral concentration in New York residential properties, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Announcement of Company Dissolution and Liquidation Plan.
On June 15, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance announced its Board of Directors determined that the dissolution of the Company, the liquidation of its assets, and the winding down of its business were advisable and in the best interest of stockholders, subject to stockholder approval. This significant company-specific decision, following a successful loan portfolio sale in April, signals a cessation of growth-oriented operations and a shift towards returning capital to shareholders, inherently leading to a largely stable stock price as the market awaits the execution of this plan.
2. Declaration of a Large Special Dividend.
Concurrent with the dissolution announcement, ARI declared a substantial quarterly common stock dividend of $3.75 per share, payable on July 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on June 30, 2026. This dividend, which is predominantly classified as a return of capital and represents more than 25% of the company's share price, likely attracted investors focused on the payout while simultaneously reinforcing the narrative of the company's winding down phase, contributing to price stability around the ex-dividend date.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Announcement of Company Dissolution and Liquidation Plan.
On June 15, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance announced its Board of Directors determined that the dissolution of the Company, the liquidation of its assets, and the winding down of its business were advisable and in the best interest of stockholders, subject to stockholder approval. This significant company-specific decision, following a successful loan portfolio sale in April, signals a cessation of growth-oriented operations and a shift towards returning capital to shareholders, inherently leading to a largely stable stock price as the market awaits the execution of this plan.
2. Declaration of a Large Special Dividend.
Concurrent with the dissolution announcement, ARI declared a substantial quarterly common stock dividend of $3.75 per share, payable on July 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on June 30, 2026. This dividend, which is predominantly classified as a return of capital and represents more than 25% of the company's share price, likely attracted investors focused on the payout while simultaneously reinforcing the narrative of the company's winding down phase, contributing to price stability around the ex-dividend date.
3. Q1 2026 Earnings Missed Analyst Expectations.
For the first fiscal quarter of 2026, ARI reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.29 per share by 24.14%. The company also reported revenue of $58.63 million, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $77.85 million. This company-specific financial underperformance likely put downward pressure on the stock or capped any potential upward movement during Q2 2026, contributing to the overall stable-to-slightly-downward trend.
4. "Hold" Consensus Among Research Analysts.
As of June 28, 2026, seven research firms maintained a consensus "Hold" rating for ARI, with five firms issuing a hold rating and two a buy rating. The average 12-month price target provided by analysts ranged from approximately $11.13 to $11.73, which is relatively close to ARI's trading levels around $10.68 to $10.78 at the end of Q2 2026. This analyst sentiment suggests a limited expectation for significant stock price appreciation or depreciation, reinforcing the observed trend of the stock remaining largely at the same level.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.0% change in ARI stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.56 | 10.14 | -4.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 272 | 263 | -3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 46.6% | 48.3% | 3.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.6 | 11.1 | -4.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 139 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | -4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.6% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.3% | 20.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.3% change in ARI stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.45 | 10.14 | 7.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 275 | 263 | -4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 50.3% | 48.3% | -3.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.5 | 11.1 | 16.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 139 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 7.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 29.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.9% | 32.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.8% change in ARI stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 701.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.99 | 10.14 | 12.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 180 | 263 | 45.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 48.3% | 701.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 114.5 | 11.1 | -90.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 139 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 12.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 6.2% | 35.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.5% change in ARI stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 184.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.28 | 10.14 | 22.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 396 | 263 | -33.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 75.6% | 48.3% | -36.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.9 | 11.1 | 184.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 141 | 139 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 22.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 45.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 70.4% | 48.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARI Return | 30% | -7% | 24% | -17% | 24% | 8% | 68% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -21% | 27% | -3% | 2% | -9% | 21% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARI Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 45% | 53% | 53% | 55% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARI Max Drawdown | -21% | -37% | -30% | -21% | -19% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -30% | -27% | -19% | -23% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STWD, BXMT, ABR, LADR, BRSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 426 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ARI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 332.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 426 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily focused on providing debt financing within the commercial real estate sector across the United States. Established in 2009, the company specializes in originating, acquiring, investing in, and actively managing various commercial real estate-related debt instruments.
The company's main products and services revolve around lending to commercial property owners and developers. This includes offering commercial first mortgage loans, which are typically secured by the underlying real estate, as well as providing subordinate financings. Additionally, ARI engages in other types of commercial real estate-related debt investments, effectively serving as a key capital provider in the U.S. commercial property market.
As a qualified REIT, ARI benefits from a specific tax advantage: it is not subject to federal income taxes, provided it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. This structure makes ARI an appealing investment for those seeking income derived from a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate debt, as profits are largely passed through to shareholders.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI):
- Like Rocket Mortgage, but exclusively for commercial properties like office buildings, hotels, and shopping centers.
- A specialized bank for commercial real estate, providing loans for large projects instead of consumer banking services.
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- Commercial First Mortgage Loans: The company originates, acquires, invests in, and manages loans secured by a first lien on commercial properties.
- Subordinate Financings: These involve debt instruments that are junior in priority to first mortgage loans in the event of default or bankruptcy.
- Other Commercial Real Estate-Related Debt Investments: This category includes various other debt instruments related to commercial real estate beyond first mortgages and subordinate financings.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) operates as a lender in the commercial real estate market. Its primary "customers" are the entities that borrow money for commercial real estate projects. These are primarily other companies, not individuals.
Given the nature of its lending business, ARI typically does not have a few publicly disclosed "major customer companies" in the traditional sense, as its borrowers are numerous and project-specific. Instead, its customer base consists of various types of commercial real estate entities seeking financing. The major categories of these commercial customers include:
- Commercial Real Estate Developers: Companies engaged in the acquisition, development, and construction of various commercial property types, such as office buildings, retail centers, industrial facilities, hospitality venues, and multi-family residential complexes.
- Commercial Real Estate Investors and Property Owners: Firms or institutional investors that acquire, own, and manage existing commercial properties, seeking financing for new acquisitions, refinancing existing debt, or capital improvements.
- Institutional Sponsors and Funds: Investment funds, private equity firms, or other institutional entities that sponsor or invest in commercial real estate projects and require debt financing to leverage their equity investments.
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Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)
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Mr. Rothstein has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) since March 2012. He was also the company's Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary from September 2009 through April 2013, and served as interim Chief Financial Officer from January 2022 to April 2022. Since 2009, he has been a Partner and the Chief Operating Officer-Real Estate of Apollo. Before joining Apollo in 2009, Mr. Rothstein was a Co-Managing Partner of Four Corners Properties, a privately held real estate investment company. His prior experience includes senior positions at KKR Financial Advisors, LLC, RBC Capital Markets, and Related Capital Company. He began his real estate career at Spieker Properties, an office REIT that was later acquired by Equity Office Properties, where he was CFO in 1999. Mr. Rothstein has also held directorship and chairman roles for other Apollo-managed entities, including Apollo Realty Income Solutions, Inc., Apollo Asset Backed Credit Company LLC, and Apollo Diversified Real Estate Fund.
Anastasia Mironova, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Secretary
Ms. Mironova has served as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. since April 2022. Prior to joining Apollo in 2022, she was a Partner in the Real Estate & Construction Services group at BDO USA, LLP. Before her time at BDO, she was a Managing Director in the Real Estate practice at Deloitte & Touche. Her career in public accounting has primarily focused on serving financial services companies, with a particular emphasis on public mortgage REITs. Additionally, Ms. Mironova has served as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary of Apollo Realty Income Solutions, Inc. (ARIS) since March 2025, and previously as ARIS' Interim CFO, Treasurer, and Secretary from March 2024 to March 2025.
Scott Weiner, Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Weiner is the Chief Investment Officer of ARI's manager and a Partner at Apollo, where he leads the global commercial real estate debt business. He is responsible for overseeing Apollo's activities related to performing commercial real estate loan origination, acquisition, and asset management. Before joining Apollo in 2009, Mr. Weiner was a Managing Director at Barclays Capital, where he led the group responsible for large mortgage loans and structured finance transactions. Prior to that, he served as Senior Vice President at Lehman Brothers in the commercial real estate finance area, specializing in structured first mortgage, mezzanine, and preferred equity investments. Mr. Weiner was also instrumental in the process of taking Apollo Commercial Real Estate public. His involvement with Apollo's real estate arm since its formation in 2008 or 2009, which was assembling a team to raise an opportunistic property fund, demonstrates a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms (Apollo Global Management).
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The key risks for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) primarily stem from its nature as a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on commercial debt investments and its recent strategic repositioning.
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Macroeconomic Volatility and Credit Risk: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's operations and financial performance are highly susceptible to macroeconomic volatility, particularly fluctuations in interest rates and broader real estate market dynamics. Rising interest rates can increase borrowing costs for the company, making it more expensive to finance new acquisitions or refinance existing debt. Moreover, these conditions can hinder borrowers' ability to meet interest payments on their commercial first mortgage loans and subordinate financings, potentially leading to material losses for ARI and diminished earnings during economic downturns. Such volatility directly impacts the valuation and liquidity of ARI's commercial real estate assets and its capacity to generate consistent returns for shareholders.
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High Leverage and Liquidity Risks: As a commercial real estate finance REIT, ARI inherently relies on borrowed capital, leading to a significant leverage profile. This high leverage poses risks, especially in volatile market conditions. Should market dynamics shift unfavorably, or if the company faces challenges in meeting its debt covenants, its financial stability and liquidity could be impacted. REITs are generally required to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income, leaving less retained earnings for reinvestment and making them more dependent on external debt or equity financing for growth, which can exacerbate leverage and associated risks.
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Strategic Uncertainty and External Management: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is externally managed by Apollo Global Management. While this can provide access to expertise, it also presents potential concerns regarding operational effectiveness, especially if any principal losses occur, which could negatively affect shareholder value and investor confidence in loan underwriting practices. The company recently announced a definitive agreement to sell nearly its entire commercial real estate loan portfolio. While this transaction aims to unlock liquidity and address a long-standing disconnect between its book value and share price, it introduces a period of strategic uncertainty. The company will be exploring new commercial real estate investment strategies, and if a suitable plan is not identified by year-end, Apollo intends to recommend that ARI's board explore all strategic alternatives, including potential dissolution of the company. This uncertainty around future investment strategies and their execution poses a significant risk to the company's long-term performance and shareholder value.
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The addressable market for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)'s main products and services, which include commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments, is the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) debt market.
As of the first quarter of 2024, the total level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding in the United States was approximately $4.70 trillion. Other reports indicate the total outstanding commercial real estate debt through Q2 2025 was $4.80 trillion. This market encompasses commercial first mortgage loans, which represent a significant portion of the overall commercial real estate debt. For instance, first liens accounted for 92 percent of the dollar volume closed by commercial mortgage bankers in 2024. Subordinate financings are also a component within this broader commercial real estate debt market.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market conditions.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for ARI:
- Continued Loan Origination and Portfolio Expansion: ARI has demonstrated robust loan origination activity, committing billions to new loans and growing its portfolio significantly in 2025. This trend is expected to continue, supported by anticipated improved borrower demand for transitional capital in the commercial real estate sector and a favorable regulatory environment for specialty finance lenders. The company's focus on originating senior floating-rate first mortgage loans across North America and Europe is central to its strategy of earning substantial interest income.
- Strategic Capital Deployment Post-Loan Portfolio Sale: A significant driver for future revenue growth is the company's definitive agreement to sell nearly its entire commercial real estate loan portfolio. This transaction is anticipated to provide ARI with approximately $1.4 billion in net cash upon closing, offering substantial liquidity for future investments. The strategic deployment of this capital into new, high-quality assets and investment opportunities is expected to generate new revenue streams.
- Monetization of Real Estate Owned (REO) Assets: ARI is actively focused on enhancing and ultimately monetizing its real estate owned (REO) assets, such as "The Brook" multifamily tower. The company is pursuing value-add projects and working towards stabilizing these assets to maximize their value for sale. An improving commercial real estate landscape in 2026 is expected to facilitate the efficient sale of these assets, contributing to future revenue.
- Capital Rotation into Higher-Yielding Investments: Management has indicated an intense focus on executing value maximization plans for its assets, which involves converting underperforming capital into higher-yielding reinvestment opportunities. This ongoing capital rotation strategy is expected to positively impact ARI's earnings and, consequently, revenue in 2025 and throughout 2026 by optimizing the overall return of its investment portfolio.
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Share Repurchases
- Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance completed a buyback of 18,846,037 shares for US$168.4 million in full year 2025.
- A share repurchase program was authorized with $70 million on October 28, 2021, and an additional $70 million on October 25, 2022, for a total authorization of $140 million.
- For the nine months ended September 27, 2025, ARI repurchased $8.6 million in common stock, and $27.0 million for the nine months ended September 28, 2024.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares issued and outstanding increased from 138,174,636 in 2024 to 138,943,831 in 2025, reflecting an issuance of 769,195 shares.
- Following the sale of its loan portfolio, Apollo Global Management's reduced annual management fee will be paid in shares of common stock during an evaluation period.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance committed $4.4 billion to new loans and provided $899 million in add-on fundings for existing loans.
- For the first half of 2025, the company committed $2.0 billion to new loans.
- As of January 28, 2026, ARI entered into an agreement to sell its entire approximately $9 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding Ltd. for a purchase price based on 99.7% of total loan commitments.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 407 |
| Op Inc LTM | 27 |
| FCF LTM | 161 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 234 |
| CFO LTM | 165 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 273 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 177.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -33.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 47.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 64.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 47.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.14 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/24/2009 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.83 | $10.18 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -6.4% | -0.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Downside Capture | 87.47 | 47.39 |
| Upside Capture | 29.54 | 48.48 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.2% | 25.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.27 | -0.02 | 0.24 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.77 |
| Up Beta | -0.83 | -0.63 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| Down Beta | -0.22 | -0.29 | -0.44 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | -30% | 13% | 30% | 46% | 41% | 53% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 30 | 62 | 125 | 373 |
| Down Capture | -0% | 40% | 66% | 35% | 47% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 32 | 59 | 118 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 11.4% | 19.4% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.6% | 14.8% | 0.16 | 35.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.5% | 1.26 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 27.8% | 0.70 | 14.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 18.7% | 1.06 | -12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.62 | 43.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.4% | 42.8% | -1.13 | 7.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 2.3% | 30.7% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.3% | 18.6% | 0.43 | 57.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 55.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 10.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.30 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 62.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.1% | 53.5% | 0.41 | 22.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 7.2% | 44.0% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.2% | 22.1% | 0.59 | 47.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 42.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 18.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 53.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 12.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -0.3% | -1.5% | -3.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.5% | 1.9% | 8.1% |
| 4/25/2025 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 17 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 11.3% | 31.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.8% | -6.9% | -10.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -0.3% | -1.5% | -3.5% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.5% | 1.9% | 8.1% |
| 4/25/2025 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| 4/29/2024 | -9.8% | -5.8% | -8.5% |
| 2/7/2024 | -4.9% | -4.6% | -0.6% |
| 10/31/2023 | 2.2% | 5.1% | 8.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.2% | -6.9% | 1.6% |
| 2/9/2023 | 4.4% | 6.4% | -10.6% |
| 10/25/2022 | 1.3% | 0.2% | 6.5% |
| 7/27/2022 | 4.9% | 1.2% | 4.9% |
| 4/26/2022 | -1.5% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| 2/9/2022 | -3.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.5% | 0.4% | -5.6% |
| 7/27/2021 | 0.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| 4/23/2021 | -1.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 2/10/2021 | 2.8% | 1.4% | 18.2% |
| 10/26/2020 | 4.2% | 3.9% | 31.8% |
| 7/31/2020 | -1.5% | 2.0% | -3.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 17 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 11.3% | 31.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.8% | -6.9% | -10.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/08/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/10/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/24/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whonder, Carmencita NM | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 10.93 | 4,574 | 49,993 | 271,051 | Form | |
| 2 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 10.16 | 52,072 | 529,135 | 2,334,211 | Form |
| 3 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 10.78 | 52,073 | 561,269 | 3,037,177 | Form |
| 4 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 9.83 | 52,074 | 511,820 | 3,281,351 | Form |
| 5 | Biderman, Mark C | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 9.48 | 10,000 | 94,800 | 576,261 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whonder, Carmencita NM | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 10.93 | 4,574 | 49,993 | 271,051 | Form | |
| 2 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 10.16 | 52,072 | 529,135 | 2,334,211 | Form |
| 3 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 10.78 | 52,073 | 561,269 | 3,037,177 | Form |
| 4 | Rothstein, Stuart | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 9.83 | 52,074 | 511,820 | 3,281,351 | Form |
| 5 | Biderman, Mark C | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 9.48 | 10,000 | 94,800 | 576,261 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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