Tearsheet

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.155 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.155
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 517%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
7 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 517%
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI), the -1.7% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors: **1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report.** Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance reported its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30/31, 2025, where it surpassed earnings per share (EPS) expectations but fell short of revenue forecasts, leading to investor concerns.

**2. Immediate Stock Price Decline Following Q3 Earnings.** Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, ARI's stock price experienced a direct decline of 1.8%, reflecting investor apprehension primarily due to the revenue miss.

**3. Increased Short Interest in the Stock.** Short interest in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance recently increased by 3.60%, signaling a decrease in overall investor sentiment towards the company.

**4. Persistent Commercial Real Estate Market Uncertainties.** While the commercial real estate market showed some signs of stabilization and the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, the market continued to face challenges such as elevated borrowing costs and an uneven recovery in the office sector, which likely contributed to cautious investor sentiment for real estate investment trusts (REITs) like ARI.

**5. Cautious Investor Sentiment Near 52-Week Lows.** The stock's decline following the Q3 earnings placed it closer to its 52-week low of $7.70, which further reinforced a cautious market sentiment among investors during this period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARI Return-29%30%-7%24%-17%26%12%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%2%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARI Win Rate50%67%50%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARI Max Drawdown-77%-3%-31%-17%-19%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven102.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-77.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven340.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-12.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven14.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days120 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock fell -50.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/16/2021. A -50.5% loss requires a 102.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

Better Bets than Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameApollo C.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price10.1513.898.192.784.7322.829.17
Mkt Cap1.41.90.60.50.115.01.0
Rev LTM274230722271,703151
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM5612215947251,953140
FCF 3Y Avg1057119632951,260150
CFO LTM18412215947252,857172
CFO 3Y Avg2177119632951,976206

Growth & Margins

ARIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameApollo C.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM36.3%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%16.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.8%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%33.0%
Rev Chg Q221.0%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%124.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM76.6%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%48.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM67.2%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%119.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg93.3%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-93.3%
FCF/Rev LTM20.5%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%92.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg44.6%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-77.6%

Valuation

ARIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameApollo C.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap1.41.90.60.50.115.01.0
P/S5.17.37.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E10.29.09.6-2.011.98.99.3
P/CFO7.613.73.21.312.44.66.1
Total Yield19.8%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%11.2%
Dividend Yield10.0%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.5%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%9.9%
D/E5.30.00.06.00.22.21.2
Net D/E5.2-0.3-0.15.70.22.21.2

Returns

ARIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameApollo C.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn4.5%5.9%8.6%-4.1%-4.8%7.1%5.2%
3M Rtn-2.7%14.6%8.1%-32.2%-10.4%9.9%2.7%
6M Rtn8.7%24.9%19.5%-29.7%-3.4%29.0%14.1%
12M Rtn23.6%30.4%19.1%-56.6%-6.1%33.1%21.3%
3Y Rtn20.7%60.5%3.7%-68.6%5.7%58.4%13.2%
1M Excs Rtn4.6%6.0%8.7%-4.1%-4.8%7.2%5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-9.8%7.8%2.0%-38.0%-15.6%3.0%-3.9%
6M Excs Rtn-6.0%10.1%4.8%-44.5%-18.1%14.3%-0.6%
12M Excs Rtn8.4%15.8%4.5%-70.9%-17.7%18.2%6.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.0%-8.7%-65.4%-141.0%-64.9%-8.9%-57.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment266369278211315
Total266369278211315


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,371,100
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.6%
Average Daily Volume850,844
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.96
Basic Shares Quantity138,943,831
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024429202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023731202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221024202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022425202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ROTHSTEIN STUARTPresident & CEO9162025Sell10.7852,073561,2693,037,177Form
1ROTHSTEIN STUARTPresident & CEO6172025Sell9.8352,074511,8203,281,351Form
2BIDERMAN MARK C 5012025Sell9.4810,00094,800576,261Form
3ROTHSTEIN STUARTPresident & CEO3192025Sell9.9952,074520,2193,855,421Form
4Whonder Carmencita N.M. 3062025Sell10.2111,400116,364210,517Form