Tearsheet

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)


Market Price (12/26/2025): $9.975 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)


Market Price (12/26/2025): $9.975
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 525%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  Key risks
ARI key risks include [1] a significant collateral concentration in New York residential properties, Show more.
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
7 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 525%
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%
9 Key risks
ARI key risks include [1] a significant collateral concentration in New York residential properties, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) experienced a -3.4% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 26, 2025. Several factors contributed to this performance, including:

1. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: ARI reported its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, 2025. While the company's Distributable Earnings of $0.30 per diluted share surpassed the forecast of $0.25, its revenue of $61.62 million missed the expected $65.21 million. The stock reportedly fell 1.8% to $9.99 post-earnings.

2. Dividend Declarations: ARI declared regular cash dividends of $0.25 per share, with declaration dates on September 9, 2025, and December 9, 2025. While consistent dividends can be a positive, changes in market sentiment or expectations around future dividend sustainability, especially when compared to earnings, could influence stock price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -2.9% change in ARI stock from 9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a -45.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
925202512252025Change
Stock Price ($)10.289.98-2.92%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)155.27274.2076.59%
P/S Multiple9.205.06-45.03%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)138.94138.94-0.00%
Cumulative Contribution-2.92%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/25/2025 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ARI-2.9% 
Market (SPY)4.9%13.4%
Sector (XLF)4.2%45.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 6.6% change in ARI stock from 6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 731.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
626202512252025Change
Stock Price ($)9.369.986.58%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)179.60274.2052.67%
Net Income Margin (%)6.06%50.39%731.91%
P/E Multiple119.3310.04-91.59%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)138.64138.94-0.22%
Cumulative Contribution6.58%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/26/2025 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ARI6.6% 
Market (SPY)13.1%18.9%
Sector (XLF)8.0%38.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 22.0% change in ARI stock from 12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 36.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
1225202412252025Change
Stock Price ($)8.189.9822.05%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)201.16274.2036.31%
P/S Multiple5.625.06-10.01%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)138.25138.94-0.50%
Cumulative Contribution22.04%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/25/2024 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ARI22.0% 
Market (SPY)15.8%51.8%
Sector (XLF)14.9%57.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 27.2% change in ARI stock from 12/26/2022 to 12/25/2025 was primarily driven by a 178.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
1226202212252025Change
Stock Price ($)7.849.9827.22%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)387.74274.20-29.28%
Net Income Margin (%)79.00%50.39%-36.21%
P/E Multiple3.6010.04178.73%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)140.59138.941.17%
Cumulative Contribution27.21%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/26/2023 to 12/25/2025
ReturnCorrelation
ARI-1.0% 
Market (SPY)48.3%46.2%
Sector (XLF)52.6%51.4%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARI Return-29%30%-7%24%-17%24%10%
Peers Return-20%34%-21%27%-3%2%7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%18%115%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARI Win Rate50%67%50%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%45%53%53%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARI Max Drawdown-77%-3%-31%-17%-19%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-72%-4%-27%-14%-18%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STWD, BXMT, ABR, LADR, BRSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven102.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-77.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven340.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-12.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven14.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days120 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY

In The Past

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock fell -50.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/16/2021. A -50.5% loss requires a 102.2% gain to breakeven.

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About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

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  • Like **Rocket Mortgage**, but for commercial buildings (such as office towers, hotels, or shopping malls) instead of homes.
  • Essentially the commercial real estate lending division of a major bank like **JPMorgan Chase** or **Wells Fargo**, but structured as a standalone, publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT).

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  • Commercial Real Estate Senior Mortgage Loans: Providing primary debt financing for income-producing commercial properties, secured by a first-priority mortgage.
  • Commercial Real Estate Mezzanine Loans: Offering subordinated debt financing for commercial properties, which ranks junior to senior mortgages but senior to common equity.
  • Commercial Real Estate Preferred Equity Investments: Supplying capital to commercial real estate projects, which holds a preferred position over common equity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (symbol: ARI) primarily sells its financing products and services to other companies, specifically those involved in commercial real estate investment and development.

As a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, and manages commercial mortgage loans and other debt investments, ARI's "customers" are the borrowers who seek financing for their commercial real estate projects and acquisitions. Due to the nature of their lending business and the typically private agreements with borrowers, ARI does not publicly disclose the names of individual major customer companies. Instead, their customer base can be broadly categorized as:

  • Commercial Real Estate Developers and Sponsors: These are companies and entities that acquire, develop, redevelop, or reposition commercial properties across various sectors (such as office, retail, industrial, multifamily, and hotel). They seek financing for construction, acquisition, or refinancing of these projects.
  • Institutional Real Estate Investors: This category includes investment firms, private equity funds, and other institutional entities that acquire and hold portfolios of commercial real estate assets and require debt capital for these investments.
  • Property Owners and Operators: These are businesses or investment vehicles that own and operate income-producing commercial properties and may seek refinancing or additional debt for property improvements, expansions, or other capital needs.

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  • Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)

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Stuart A. Rothstein, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Mr. Rothstein has served as President and Chief Executive Officer and a director of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) since March 2012. He was also the company's Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary from September 2009 through April 2013, and again on an interim basis from January 2022 to April 2022. Since 2009, he has been a Partner and the Chief Operating Officer-Real Estate of Apollo, and since April 2023, the Chief Operating Officer-Asset Backed Finance of Apollo. He is also the Chairman of the board of directors for Apollo Realty Income Solutions ("ARIS") and Apollo Asset-Backed Credit Company ("ABC"), and Chairman of the Board and Co-Portfolio Manager for Apollo Diversified Real Estate Fund ("ADREF"). Before joining Apollo in 2009, Mr. Rothstein was a Co-Managing Partner of Four Corners Properties, a privately held real estate investment company. He also previously held positions at KKR Financial Advisors, LLC, RBC Capital Markets, Related Capital Company, and Spieker Properties, Inc.

Anastasia Mironova, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Secretary

Ms. Mironova has served as Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Secretary of ARI since April 2022. She is also a Managing Director, Credit at Apollo. Before joining Apollo in 2022, Ms. Mironova was a Partner at BDO USA, LLP, focusing on public REITs and debt funds from May 2021 to April 2022. Prior to that, she was a Managing Director in the Real Estate practice at Deloitte & Touche. Her career in public accounting has focused on serving a wide range of financial services companies, particularly public mortgage REITs.

Scott Weiner, Chief Investment Officer

Mr. Weiner serves as the Chief Investment Officer of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. He holds a BA in International Studies from Johns Hopkins University.

Michael E. Salvati, Chairman of the Executive Board

Mr. Salvati has been the Chairman of the Executive Board since 2009.

Robert Kasdin, Director

Mr. Kasdin has served as a director of Apollo Asset Backed Credit Company LLC since September 2025. Previously, he was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the University of Michigan from 1997 to 2002. From 1993 to 1997, he was the Treasurer and Chief Investment Officer for the Metropolitan Museum of Art, and from 1988 to 1992, he served as Vice President and General Counsel for Princeton University Investment Company. Mr. Kasdin began his career as a corporate attorney at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) primarily stem from the challenging commercial real estate market, interest rate volatility, and concerns around its leverage and funding.

  1. Commercial Real Estate Market Headwinds and Asset Valuation: ARI faces significant headwinds from the broader commercial real estate (CRE) sector, including rising systematic risk and potential for further losses. The company's portfolio, concentrated in floating-rate loans with short weighted average terms, is exposed to mark-to-market and collateral valuation risks. For instance, approximately 19% of its collateral value is situated in New York, largely spanning residential properties, which have experienced valuation compression. Fluctuations in property values directly impact ARI's loan portfolio and investment returns, and commercial mortgage loans are inherently subject to risks of delinquency, foreclosure, and loss.
  2. Interest Rate Fluctuations: As a mortgage REIT, ARI's business model is highly sensitive to interest rate changes. While a portfolio heavily focused on floating-rate debt can benefit in a rising rate environment, it also exposes the company to increased borrower risk when rates are high. Conversely, lower mortgage rates have previously impacted ARI by reducing its net interest income, as it struggled to scale financing costs sufficiently. Significant interest rate changes can reduce income on assets and increase financing costs, thereby adversely affecting earnings and cash available for distribution.
  3. High Leverage and Funding Concerns: ARI operates with high financial leverage, typical for a mortgage REIT, with its debt-to-equity ratio recently increasing to approximately 4.1x as of the third quarter of 2025. This elevated leverage amplifies both potential returns and risks. The company has also faced concerns regarding the sustainability of its dividend payouts due to earnings coverage and has previously experienced falling revenues and limited operating cash flow coverage for its debt. Furthermore, there's a risk stemming from the potential mismatch between the liquidity of its underlying assets and the structure of its liabilities.

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) operates in the commercial real estate debt market, primarily originating, investing in, acquiring, and managing commercial first-mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Their investments span various property types across the United States and Europe.

The addressable markets for ARI's main products and services are significant, particularly in the U.S. and globally:

  • U.S. Commercial Real Estate Debt Market: The total outstanding U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) debt was valued at approximately $5.9 trillion as of the fourth quarter of 2023 or the second quarter of 2024. This market includes loans backed by income-producing properties and construction loans.

  • U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Market: This market had a capitalization of around $1.8 trillion as of December 31, 2024. It constitutes a substantial portion of the broader U.S. securitized market.

  • Global Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Market: The global CMBS market size was valued at approximately $1.23 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach $1.88 trillion by 2033.

  • Global Commercial Real Estate Debt Market (Maturing Debt): JLL projects that $3.1 trillion of real estate assets globally will have maturing debt by the end of 2025, with about 77% of this in the U.S. The broader global CRE debt market is estimated to be over $6 trillion.

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
  1. Continued Loan Origination and Portfolio Expansion: ARI has demonstrated robust loan origination activity, with management anticipating continued growth in its loan portfolio. For instance, the company reported originating $1.4 billion in new commitments in Q2 2025 and over $2 billion year-to-date, along with additional add-on fundings for existing loans. This expansion is expected to be fueled by an active origination pipeline, including over $1 billion for the first half of 2025, suggesting a growing asset base that generates interest income.
  2. Strategic Redeployment of Capital from Monetized Assets: The company plans to monetize specific focus assets, such as 111 West 57th Street in early 2026 and The Brook by mid-2026. The proceeds from these sales, including an expected $55 million from 111 West 57th Street, will be redeployed into new loan originations. This strategic capital recycling is anticipated to drive an earnings uplift in Q4 and into 2026.
  3. Focus on Residential Properties and European Market Expansion: ARI has strategically emphasized residential properties, which constituted 31% of its portfolio in Q3 2025. Furthermore, the company's expansion into European markets is a key strategic initiative, contributing to its robust financial results and positioning it as a leading alternative lender in the region. The international diversification is viewed as a strategic advantage, with a healthy pipeline across property types in the U.S. and Europe.
  4. Beneficial Impact of Floating-Rate Loans and Attractive Yields on New Originations: A significant portion (96%) of ARI's loan portfolio consists of floating-rate loans. While a general decrease in interest rates might impact earnings, newly originated loans are underwritten to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns, benefiting from wider spreads and higher base rates. This allows ARI to capitalize on prevailing market conditions when deploying capital from repayments into new, higher-yielding opportunities, with the weighted average unlevered yield on the loan portfolio at 7.7% in Q3 2025 and 7.9% in Q1 2025.

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Here is a summary of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)'s capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:

Share Repurchases

  • In 2020, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance repurchased 14,832,632 shares of its common stock at a weighted-average price of $8.61 per share. The board of directors initially approved a stock repurchase program of up to $150.0 million in March 2020, and an additional $150.0 million was approved in February 2021.
  • There was no significant common stock repurchase activity in 2021, 2022, or 2023, apart from 4,734 shares repurchased in the fourth quarter of 2021 at $34.45 per share to satisfy tax withholding obligations related to employee equity plans.
  • In 2024, the company repurchased 4,013,405 shares of its common stock at a weighted-average price of $10.15 per share. As of March 31, 2024, $172.2 million remained authorized under the stock repurchase program.

Share Issuance

  • In 2021, ARI raised approximately $1.9 billion of capital, which included common and preferred equity, alongside long-term unsecured debt. This included an inaugural preferred equity offering that raised approximately $175 million with a 4.25% coupon. Additionally, under a 2020 At-The-Market (ATM) Program, 7,322,471 shares were sold for gross proceeds at a weighted average price of $33.84 per share.
  • The number of common shares issued and outstanding increased by 701,935 from 139,894,060 in 2021 to 140,595,995 in 2022, and further to 141,353,133 in 2023. By February 5, 2024, this figure reached 142,096,715 shares. The company also has a Registration Statement on Form S-3 for the offering from time to time of common stock, preferred stock, depositary shares, debt securities, warrants, and rights.

Outbound Investments

  • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's primary business activity involves originating, acquiring, investing in, and managing performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments across a broad spectrum of geographies (United States and Europe) and property types.
  • In 2024, ARI committed $1.9 billion to new loans and provided an additional $627.4 million in add-on fundings. The company also successfully reinvested $2.5 billion received from loan repayments and sales during the year.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures on real estate assets amounted to $(47,187) thousand for the nine months ended September 30, 2023.
  • For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, capital expenditures on real estate assets increased to $(123,275) thousand.
  • These capital expenditures are related to real estate assets, which likely pertain to properties acquired as part of ARI's investment portfolio, such as through foreclosure or for direct investment purposes, rather than traditional operational capital expenditures.

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to ARI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.8%13.8%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.3%-0.3%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.4%-4.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
7.6%7.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.2%-11.2%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARISTWDBXMTABRLADRBRSPMedian
NameApollo C.Starwood.Blacksto.Arbor Re.Ladder C.BrightSp. 
Mkt Price9.9818.5419.837.9311.345.8910.66
Mkt Cap1.46.73.41.51.40.71.5
Rev LTM274767508524230321415
Op Inc LTM-----3030
FCF LTM56714224436-1883153
FCF 3Y Avg105303365458137112220
CFO LTM184785224436-1883204
CFO 3Y Avg217344365458137112281

Growth & Margins

ARISTWDBXMTABRLADRBRSPMedian
NameApollo C.Starwood.Blacksto.Arbor Re.Ladder C.BrightSp. 
Rev Chg LTM36.3%-27.4%-4.6%-21.0%-14.4%-12.0%-13.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.8%-16.5%-4.5%-3.2%-5.3%-1.5%-4.9%
Rev Chg Q221.0%-13.2%21.1%-28.6%-17.6%-4.9%-9.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM76.6%-3.9%4.8%-7.9%-5.0%-1.3%-2.6%
Op Mgn LTM-----9.4%9.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-----0.4%0.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM------3.6%-3.6%
CFO/Rev LTM67.2%102.3%44.1%83.2%-8.0%25.7%55.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg93.3%41.6%61.8%72.9%46.6%30.7%54.2%
FCF/Rev LTM20.5%93.1%44.1%83.2%-8.0%25.7%34.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg44.6%36.8%61.8%72.9%46.6%30.7%45.6%

Valuation

ARISTWDBXMTABRLADRBRSPMedian
NameApollo C.Starwood.Blacksto.Arbor Re.Ladder C.BrightSp. 
Mkt Cap1.46.73.41.51.40.71.5
P/S5.18.76.72.96.22.35.6
P/EBIT------18.8-18.8
P/E10.018.231.87.917.8-20.513.9
P/CFO7.58.515.23.5-77.09.18.0
Total Yield20.1%15.3%12.7%35.1%13.9%0.7%14.6%
Dividend Yield10.1%9.8%9.5%22.4%8.3%5.6%9.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.5%4.3%10.6%17.0%9.9%15.1%10.2%
D/E5.41.74.64.31.92.93.6
Net D/E5.21.64.54.11.62.83.4

Returns

ARISTWDBXMTABRLADRBRSPMedian
NameApollo C.Starwood.Blacksto.Arbor Re.Ladder C.BrightSp. 
1M Rtn-2.0%1.5%2.5%-11.0%2.3%5.0%1.9%
3M Rtn-2.9%-7.2%6.4%-31.4%2.6%5.0%-0.1%
6M Rtn6.6%-4.7%5.3%-21.7%9.0%18.9%5.9%
12M Rtn22.0%4.9%19.9%-36.1%7.6%10.9%9.3%
3Y Rtn27.2%29.6%24.8%-14.3%41.4%25.6%26.4%
1M Excs Rtn-3.0%0.8%2.5%-10.0%1.7%4.3%1.3%
3M Excs Rtn-7.9%-12.2%1.5%-36.3%-2.3%0.0%-5.1%
6M Excs Rtn-6.3%-17.6%-7.6%-34.6%-3.9%6.0%-6.9%
12M Excs Rtn5.8%-11.4%3.9%-51.7%-8.9%-6.0%-7.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.9%-49.8%-56.2%-94.2%-37.9%-55.6%-53.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment266369278211315
Total266369278211315


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$9.98 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.4 
First Trading Date09/24/2009 
Distance from 52W High-7.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$10.01$9.61
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-0.3%3.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility20.3%25.7%
Downside Capture21.6358.55
Upside Capture2.8669.59
Correlation (SPY)14.2%52.0%
ARI Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.130.310.340.400.710.97
Up Beta0.360.860.930.880.730.87
Down Beta-0.590.230.03-0.030.750.93
Up Capture39%22%22%42%62%94%
Bmk +ve Days12253873141426
Stock +ve Days10202760120370
Down Capture6%19%39%41%70%103%
Bmk -ve Days7162452107323
Stock -ve Days8193261120359

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
 Comparison of ARI With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
 ARISector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return26.4%18.3%19.2%71.9%8.9%6.0%-10.1%
Annualized Volatility25.7%19.0%19.5%19.3%15.3%17.1%35.0%
Sharpe Ratio0.870.750.782.690.360.18-0.12
Correlation With Other Assets 57.6%52.0%-3.3%17.1%64.3%14.7%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
 Comparison of ARI With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
 ARISector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return8.9%16.3%14.9%18.7%11.7%4.8%32.7%
Annualized Volatility31.5%18.9%17.1%15.5%18.7%18.9%48.7%
Sharpe Ratio0.320.720.700.970.510.170.60
Correlation With Other Assets 59.6%56.6%10.2%19.6%63.3%23.2%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
 Comparison of ARI With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
 ARISector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return6.0%13.0%14.7%14.9%6.9%5.2%69.3%
Annualized Volatility44.0%22.3%18.0%14.8%17.6%20.8%55.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.280.540.700.830.310.220.90
Correlation With Other Assets 47.3%42.8%0.1%20.1%54.1%11.4%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,218,869
Short Interest: % Change Since 113020256.7%
Average Daily Volume815,754
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.95
Basic Shares Quantity138,943,831
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/31/2025-0.8%0.4%3.7%
7/30/2025-0.5%1.9%8.1%
4/25/20251.3%3.6%5.9%
2/11/20259.9%11.3%8.8%
10/31/2024-1.2%3.4%4.6%
8/7/20241.9%1.2%3.2%
4/29/2024-9.8%-5.8%-8.5%
2/7/2024-4.9%-4.6%-0.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111716
# Negative1378
Median Positive2.2%1.9%5.4%
Median Negative-1.4%-4.6%-4.7%
Max Positive9.9%11.3%52.4%
Max Negative-9.8%-10.8%-54.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024429202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023731202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221024202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022425202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ROTHSTEIN STUARTPresident & CEO9162025Sell10.7852,073561,2693,037,177Form
1ROTHSTEIN STUARTPresident & CEO6172025Sell9.8352,074511,8203,281,351Form
2BIDERMAN MARK C 5012025Sell9.4810,00094,800576,261Form
3ROTHSTEIN STUARTPresident & CEO3192025Sell9.9952,074520,2193,855,421Form
4Whonder Carmencita N.M. 3062025Sell10.2111,400116,364210,517Form