Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.155 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.155Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 517% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 517% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI), the -1.7% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:
**1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report.** Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance reported its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30/31, 2025, where it surpassed earnings per share (EPS) expectations but fell short of revenue forecasts, leading to investor concerns.
**2. Immediate Stock Price Decline Following Q3 Earnings.** Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, ARI's stock price experienced a direct decline of 1.8%, reflecting investor apprehension primarily due to the revenue miss.
**3. Increased Short Interest in the Stock.** Short interest in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance recently increased by 3.60%, signaling a decrease in overall investor sentiment towards the company.
**4. Persistent Commercial Real Estate Market Uncertainties.** While the commercial real estate market showed some signs of stabilization and the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, the market continued to face challenges such as elevated borrowing costs and an uneven recovery in the office sector, which likely contributed to cautious investor sentiment for real estate investment trusts (REITs) like ARI.
**5. Cautious Investor Sentiment Near 52-Week Lows.** The stock's decline following the Q3 earnings placed it closer to its 52-week low of $7.70, which further reinforced a cautious market sentiment among investors during this period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARI Return | -29% | 30% | -7% | 24% | -17% | 26% | 12% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 10% | -19% | 2% | 6% | 2% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARI Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 45% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARI Max Drawdown | -77% | -3% | -31% | -17% | -19% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -6% | -34% | -22% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -77.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 340.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 120 days |
Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's stock fell -50.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/16/2021. A -50.5% loss requires a 102.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 151 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 150 |
| CFO LTM | 172 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 206 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 124.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 48.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 119.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 93.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 92.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7312023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10242022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4252022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | President & CEO | 9162025 | Sell | 10.78 | 52,073 | 561,269 | 3,037,177 | Form |
| 1 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | President & CEO | 6172025 | Sell | 9.83 | 52,074 | 511,820 | 3,281,351 | Form |
| 2 | BIDERMAN MARK C | 5012025 | Sell | 9.48 | 10,000 | 94,800 | 576,261 | Form | |
| 3 | ROTHSTEIN STUART | President & CEO | 3192025 | Sell | 9.99 | 52,074 | 520,219 | 3,855,421 | Form |
| 4 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | 3062025 | Sell | 10.21 | 11,400 | 116,364 | 210,517 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |