Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $20.0 | Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $20.0Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 6.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 446% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 32x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, and ESG REITs. | Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 12/6/2023. | |
| Key risksBXMT key risks include [1] deteriorating credit quality and a concentration of high-risk loans in its U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, and ESG REITs. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 446% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 32x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5% |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 12/6/2023. |
| Key risksBXMT key risks include [1] deteriorating credit quality and a concentration of high-risk loans in its U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BXMT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Blackstone Mortgage Trust's (BXMT) stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 22, 2025:
1. Robust Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations: Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, 2025, with distributable earnings prior to charge-offs of $0.48 per share, which comfortably covered its $0.47 per share dividend and surpassed analyst estimates.
2. Consistent Dividend Declarations Demonstrated Stability: During the period, BXMT declared its regular quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share for both the third quarter of 2025 (declared September 15, 2025) and the fourth quarter of 2025 (declared December 15, 2025), signaling ongoing financial health and a commitment to shareholder returns.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BXMT Return | -18% | 20% | -24% | 13% | -8% | 24% | -2% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -14% | 26% | -4% | 9% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BXMT Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 50% | 43% | 53% | 50% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BXMT Max Drawdown | -65% | -6% | -25% | -19% | -19% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -26% | -13% | -16% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STWD, ARI, LADR, FBRT, BRSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BXMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 211.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6252.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to RITM, PECO, CUZ, IRT, NLY
In The Past
Blackstone Mortgage Trust's stock fell -49.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2021. A -49.2% loss requires a 96.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BXMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| 06302024 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 5.3% | 22.0% | -1.9% |
| 12312023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.4% | -8.8% | -18.9% |
| 06302023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.1% | -5.3% | -12.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| 06302024 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 5.3% | 22.0% | -1.9% |
| 12312023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.4% | -8.8% | -18.9% |
| 06302023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.1% | -5.3% | -12.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Blackstone Mortgage Trust
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| Rev LTM | 415 |
| Op Inc LTM | 69 |
| FCF LTM | 69 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 124 |
| CFO LTM | 133 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 177 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -4.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 44.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | -5.3 |
| P/E | 14.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 14.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 8.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| D/E | 3.8 |
| Net D/E | 3.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.5% | 2.4% | 7.3% |
| 7/30/2025 | -3.8% | -2.5% | 0.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.5% | -1.4% | 0.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 1.6% | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 2.6% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| 7/24/2024 | -11.6% | -8.5% | -9.1% |
| 4/24/2024 | -4.6% | -7.8% | -7.6% |
| 2/14/2024 | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 11.2% | 9.1% | 27.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.6% | -8.5% | -26.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Marone Anthony F. JR | Chief Financial Officer | 9032025 | Sell | 19.27 | 506 | 9,748 | 1,224,792 | Form |
| 1 | Keenan Katharine A | CEO & President | 9032025 | Sell | 19.25 | 2,315 | 44,572 | 4,516,875 | Form |
| 2 | Keenan Katharine A | CEO & President | 6182025 | Sell | 19.13 | 6,931 | 132,601 | 4,532,544 | Form |
| 3 | URBASZEK MARCIN | Deputy Chief Financial Officer | 6182025 | Sell | 19.14 | 800 | 15,316 | 231,444 | Form |
| 4 | Marone Anthony F. JR | Chief Financial Officer | 6182025 | Sell | 19.20 | 1,517 | 29,133 | 1,230,669 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |