Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.76 | Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.76Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 488% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.29 | Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 12/6/2023. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, and ESG REITs. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, and ESG REITs. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.29 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 488% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5% |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 12/6/2023. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BXMT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings and Revenue Beat: Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported a net income of $63.4 million for the third quarter of 2025. The company's revenue increased by 18.6% year-over-year to $133.6 million, surpassing Wall Street expectations, although Distributable EPS modestly missed consensus estimates. Distributable EPS prior to charge-offs stood at $0.48, adequately covering the $0.47 dividend per share.
2. Improved Credit Performance and Portfolio Health: The company demonstrated improved credit performance, with 96% of its loan portfolio performing and no new impaired loans reported. Blackstone Mortgage Trust successfully resolved $0.4 billion of impaired loans above their aggregate carrying value, and CECL (Current Expected Credit Losses) reserves declined to $712 million, supporting a book value per share of $20.99. The impaired loan balance decreased by 71% compared to its peak in the previous year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BXMT Return | -18% | 20% | -24% | 13% | -8% | 21% | -5% |
| Peers Return | -9% | 28% | -21% | 13% | 18% | 5% | 29% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BXMT Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 66% | 47% | 57% | 58% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BXMT Max Drawdown | -65% | -6% | -25% | -19% | -19% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -4% | -35% | -19% | -8% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RITM, PECO, CUZ, IRT, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BXMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 211.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6252.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to RITM, PECO, CUZ, IRT, NLY
In The Past
Blackstone Mortgage Trust's stock fell -49.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2021. A -49.2% loss requires a 96.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BXMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 06302024 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 5.3% | 22.0% | -1.9% |
| 12312023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.4% | -8.8% | -18.9% |
| 06302023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.1% | -5.3% | -12.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 06302024 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 5.3% | 22.0% | -1.9% |
| 12312023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.4% | -8.8% | -18.9% |
| 06302023 | BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.1% | -5.3% | -12.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Blackstone Mortgage Trust
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.29 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 838 |
| Op Inc LTM | 191 |
| FCF LTM | 164 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 182 |
| CFO LTM | 311 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 339 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 44.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 23.3 |
| P/E | 41.1 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 1.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Marone Anthony F. JR | Chief Financial Officer | 9032025 | Sell | 19.27 | 506 | 9,748 | 1,224,792 | Form |
| 1 | Keenan Katharine A | CEO & President | 9032025 | Sell | 19.25 | 2,315 | 44,572 | 4,516,875 | Form |
| 2 | Keenan Katharine A | CEO & President | 6182025 | Sell | 19.13 | 6,931 | 132,601 | 4,532,544 | Form |
| 3 | URBASZEK MARCIN | Deputy Chief Financial Officer | 6182025 | Sell | 19.14 | 800 | 15,316 | 231,444 | Form |
| 4 | Marone Anthony F. JR | Chief Financial Officer | 6182025 | Sell | 19.20 | 1,517 | 29,133 | 1,230,669 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |