Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 89%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 48x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 559%
3   Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 12/18/2024.
4   Key risks
SEZL key risks include [1] high credit losses from its strategy of lending to subprime borrowers, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 89%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 48x
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 80%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 559%
7 Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 12/18/2024.
8 Key risks
SEZL key risks include [1] high credit losses from its strategy of lending to subprime borrowers, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SEZL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Sezzle (SEZL) stock moved by -25.9% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Analyst Price Target Reductions and Shifting Ratings: Despite strong Q3 2025 earnings reported on November 5, 2025, which saw the stock initially rise, several analysts subsequently lowered their price targets. For example, TD Cowen reduced its price target from $86 to $83 on November 6, 2025, maintaining a "Hold" rating, and Oppenheimer lowered its target from $134 to $110 on the same day, albeit while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Earlier, on September 11, 2025, TD Cowen initiated coverage with a "Hold" rating and an $82 price target. These adjustments, even within positive ratings, can signal diminished growth expectations or increased risk, contributing to downward pressure on the stock.

2. Increased Competition and Economic Uncertainty: Sezzle acknowledged potential challenges, including increasing competition in the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) space and general economic uncertainty, in its Q3 2025 earnings presentation. This broader market sentiment and the highly competitive landscape for BNPL services likely weighed on investor confidence throughout the period, despite the company's individual performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SEZL Return1147%71%
Peers Return-76%197%31%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SEZL Win Rate50%75%42% 
Peers Win Rate43%25%62%46%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SEZL Max Drawdown-20%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-78%-18%-30%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AFRM, PYPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SEZL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4,470 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Sezzle (SEZL)

Better Bets than Sezzle (SEZL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SEZL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Sezzle

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SEZLAFRMPYPLMedian
NameSezzle Affirm PayPal  
Mkt Price70.1472.0460.1870.14
Mkt Cap2.425.157.225.1
Rev LTM4193,45932,8623,459
Op Inc LTM1395406,296540
FCF LTM547695,565769
FCF 3Y Avg223615,265361
CFO LTM579726,426972
CFO 3Y Avg245275,972527

Growth & Margins

SEZLAFRMPYPLMedian
NameSezzle Affirm PayPal  
Rev Chg LTM88.7%37.0%4.5%37.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-34.4%6.7%20.5%
Rev Chg Q67.0%33.6%7.3%33.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.6%7.3%1.8%7.3%
Op Mgn LTM33.1%15.6%19.2%19.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.7%-13.4%17.9%17.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%5.1%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM13.5%28.1%19.6%19.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.2%17.8%19.0%17.8%
FCF/Rev LTM12.9%22.2%16.9%16.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.5%11.2%16.8%11.2%

Valuation

SEZLAFRMPYPLMedian
NameSezzle Affirm PayPal  
Mkt Cap2.425.157.225.1
P/S6.57.41.96.5
P/EBIT19.537.89.819.5
P/E23.4109.213.023.4
P/CFO47.926.29.926.2
Total Yield4.3%0.9%7.7%4.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.0%1.6%7.5%1.6%
D/E0.00.30.20.2
Net D/E0.00.20.00.0

Returns

SEZLAFRMPYPLMedian
NameSezzle Affirm PayPal  
1M Rtn37.6%5.7%-2.8%5.7%
3M Rtn-20.7%-20.3%-12.1%-20.3%
6M Rtn-51.0%16.8%-12.0%-12.0%
12M Rtn33.5%1.6%-33.6%1.6%
3Y Rtn-611.9%-12.9%299.5%
1M Excs Rtn36.9%4.9%-3.5%4.9%
3M Excs Rtn-23.0%-21.2%-13.3%-21.2%
6M Excs Rtn-63.3%4.4%-24.4%-24.4%
12M Excs Rtn25.1%-9.2%-44.8%-9.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-418.7%-86.7%166.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Single Segment159126
Total159126


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,214,456
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-0.6%
Average Daily Volume747,519
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.64
Basic Shares Quantity34,048,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/2025-1.7%-4.1%-30.7%
7/22/20253.5%5.8%-34.0%
4/14/20257.7%4.6%130.8%
1/15/20251.1%-8.0%31.0%
10/17/20243.0%-4.6%76.0%
7/25/20243.1%-6.8%54.8%
5/8/202475.7%60.6%91.4%
2/26/202420.0%7.4%80.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive858
# Negative9129
Median Positive4.5%7.4%76.0%
Median Negative-1.7%-5.7%-32.3%
Max Positive75.7%60.6%130.8%
Max Negative-1.7%-8.0%-34.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Paradis PaulDirector & President9112025Sell88.673,000266,01020,660,110Form
1Paradis PaulDirector & President9042025Sell91.533,000274,59021,601,080Form
2Paradis PaulDirector & President8272025Sell92.243,000276,72022,045,360Form
3Krause JustinSVP FINANCE AND CONTROLLER8272025Sell94.153,661344,6938,801,950Form
4Paradis PaulDirector & President8192025Sell91.623,000274,86022,172,040Form