Abacus Global Management (ABL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.22 | Market Cap: $788.8 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance
Abacus Global Management (ABL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.22Market Cap: $788.8 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Life & Health Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 92% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.26 | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% | ||
| Key risksABL key risks include [1] allegations of accounting fraud and significant asset overvaluation, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 92% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.26 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksABL key risks include [1] allegations of accounting fraud and significant asset overvaluation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ABL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the 19.6% stock movement for Abacus Global Management (ABL) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Abacus Global Management reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results. On November 6, 2025, the company announced a 124% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 60% increase in adjusted net income for Q3 2025. This marked their tenth consecutive quarter of earnings growth. The company also raised its full-year 2025 adjusted net income guidance to between $80 million and $84 million, representing a 72% to 81% growth compared to 2024.
2. The company initiated an inaugural annual cash dividend. Alongside its robust Q3 earnings, Abacus Global Management announced its first-ever annual cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on December 17, 2025. This action signals strong financial health and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABL Return | � | -3% | 3% | -5% | -19% | 9% | � |
| Peers Return | � | 71% | -25% | 68% | 62% | -11% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABL Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 92% | 58% | 33% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 67% | 43% | 70% | 77% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABL Max Drawdown | � | -4% | -0% | -43% | -22% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -8% | -38% | -4% | -4% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APO, OWL, ARES, BX, KKR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -1.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 148 days |
Compare to OSG, MFC, AFL, MET, PRU
In The Past
Abacus Global Management's stock fell -47.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/28/2023. A -47.7% loss requires a 91.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ABL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Abacus Global Management
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 139.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 57.8 |
| Rev LTM | 8,366 |
| Op Inc LTM | 428 |
| FCF LTM | 3,112 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,563 |
| CFO LTM | 3,165 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,667 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 57.8 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 13.8 |
| P/E | 49.6 |
| P/CFO | 15.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 134.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 53.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 22.2% | 22.5% | 49.1% |
| 8/8/2025 | 8.0% | 14.2% | 21.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 6.9% | -26.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | -8.8% | -5.7% | -11.6% |
| 3/21/2024 | -0.3% | 0.0% | -2.5% |
| 8/14/2023 | 13.1% | 24.4% | 32.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| # Negative | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 14.2% | 32.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -5.7% | -11.6% |
| Max Positive | 22.2% | 24.4% | 49.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.8% | -5.7% | -26.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 7252023 | S-1 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 9182023 | S-1 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 10142022 | PREM14A 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | McNealy Sean | Co-Founder and President | 6052025 | Buy | 5.77 | 86,207 | 497,759 | 71,919,252 | Form |
| 1 | Kirby Kevin Scott | Co-Founder and President | 6052025 | Buy | 5.77 | 86,207 | 497,759 | 71,871,374 | Form |
| 2 | McCauley William Hugh JR | Chief Financial Officer | 6052025 | Buy | 5.82 | 33,000 | 192,156 | 506,592 | Form |
| 3 | McNealy Sean | Co-Founder and President | 12202024 | Sell | 8.00 | 75,800 | 606,400 | 98,892,000 | Form |
| 4 | Ganovsky Matthew | Co-Founder and President | 12202024 | Sell | 8.00 | 75,800 | 606,400 | 80,113,232 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Life & Health Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |