Blackstone (BX)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $139.99 | Market Cap: $109.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Blackstone (BX)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $139.99Market Cap: $109.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.6x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.9% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Sustainable Finance, and Renewable Energy Transition. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Sustainable Finance, and Renewable Energy Transition. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.6x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
BX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss
Blackstone reported total revenue of $3.09 billion for the third quarter of 2025, which fell short of analyst forecasts of $3.2 billion. This figure also represented a 15.7% decline from the $3.663 billion reported in the same quarter of the previous year. This revenue miss contributed to investor concerns and a negative market reaction.
2. Significant GAAP Net Income Miss
Despite exceeding distributable earnings (DE) expectations, Blackstone's Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) net income for Q3 2025 stood at $624.9 million, or $0.80 per diluted share. This was a substantial miss compared to analyst GAAP EPS estimates, which had ranged from $1.23, and a decrease from $780.84 million, or $1.02 per share, reported in Q3 2024. This divergence between adjusted and GAAP metrics fueled investor unease and contributed to the stock's decline.
3. Decline in Operating Margin
The company's operating margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 44.6%, a notable decrease from 57.4% in the comparable quarter of the previous year. This decline signals pressure on profitability due to higher-than-anticipated expenses.
4. Major Insider Selling Activities
Several significant insider selling transactions occurred during this period. Joseph Baratta, a Director, sold 113,000 shares for approximately $19.85 million on September 25, 2025, and an additional 100,000 shares for about $16.74 million on August 5, 2025. Vikrant Sawhney, the Chief Administrative Officer, also sold 50,850 shares totaling approximately $8.83 million on August 14, 2025. Such substantial insider sales can sometimes be interpreted by the market as a lack of confidence in the company's short-term prospects.
5. Increased Investor Sensitivity to Core Profitability
The market demonstrated an increased focus on core profitability metrics and the sustainability of investment returns for private equity firms. Despite Blackstone's strong fundraising capabilities and robust distributable earnings, the significant miss on GAAP net income in Q3 2025 triggered a negative market reaction, indicating that investors are increasingly scrutinizing traditional accounting metrics rather than solely adjusted figures.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BX Return | 20% | 107% | -40% | 83% | 35% | -17% | 206% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 39% | -18% | 13% | 33% | 12% | 121% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BX Win Rate | 42% | 83% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 67% | 45% | 47% | 72% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BX Max Drawdown | -35% | -5% | -42% | 0% | -11% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -4% | -37% | -13% | -4% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BLK, BK, AMP, STT, TROW. See BX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 625 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 805.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1838 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BLK, BK, AMP, STT, TROW
In The Past
Blackstone's stock fell -51.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -51.5% loss requires a 106.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.6% | 0.6% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.5% | -0.5% | -2.7% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.6% | 0.6% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.5% | -0.5% | -2.7% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Blackstone
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 128.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 62.1 |
| Rev LTM | 15,668 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,077 |
| FCF LTM | 3,016 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,865 |
| CFO LTM | 3,802 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,099 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 34.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 62.1 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 10.3 |
| P/E | 14.9 |
| P/CFO | 18.0 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Equity | 3,428 | 3,159 | 4,402 | 2,219 | 1,624 |
| Real Estate | 3,390 | 6,835 | 5,064 | 2,789 | 2,575 |
| Credit & Insurance | 2,242 | 1,863 | 1,202 | 684 | 674 |
| Multi-Asset Investing | 635 | 733 | 996 | 822 | 708 |
| Interest and Dividend Revenue | 536 | 285 | 163 | 130 | 193 |
| Impact of Consolidation | 200 | 109 | 1,198 | 234 | 88 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | -3 | -3 | -4 | -6 | -10 |
| Transaction-Related and Non-Recurring Items | -26 | 25 | -1 | -30 | 168 |
| Net Gains from Fund Investment Activities | -57 | -105 | 462 | 31 | 283 |
| Other Revenue | -93 | 184 | 203 | -254 | 79 |
| Unrealized Principal Investment (Income) Loss | -593 | -1,236 | 680 | -102 | 113 |
| Unrealized Performance Revenues | -1,692 | -3,437 | 8,675 | -385 | 1,127 |
| Amortization of Intangibles | -2 | -2 | |||
| Total | 7,966 | 8,413 | 23,039 | 6,132 | 7,621 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Equity | 14,902 | 14,142 | 15,243 | 10,138 | 9,008 |
| Real Estate | 13,017 | 14,638 | 14,866 | 8,562 | 9,023 |
| Credit & Insurance | 6,706 | 6,346 | 6,522 | 3,722 | 4,009 |
| Impact of Consolidation | 3,844 | 4,576 | 1,773 | 1,374 | 8,307 |
| Multi-Asset Investing | 1,820 | 2,822 | 2,792 | 2,472 | 2,238 |
| Total | 40,288 | 42,524 | 41,196 | 26,269 | 32,586 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -4.2% | -7.1% | |
| 7/24/2025 | 3.6% | 2.0% | -4.4% |
| 4/17/2025 | 0.8% | 4.0% | 14.2% |
| 1/30/2025 | -4.1% | -5.7% | -12.3% |
| 10/17/2024 | 6.3% | 4.5% | 14.0% |
| 7/18/2024 | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| 4/18/2024 | -2.3% | 0.5% | 4.5% |
| 1/25/2024 | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 16 | 16 |
| # Negative | 12 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -6.4% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 6.8% | 23.8% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.9% | -10.7% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |