Blue Owl Capital (OWL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.045 | Market Cap: $10.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Blue Owl Capital (OWL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.045Market Cap: $10.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 218x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 10% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 218x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OWL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, the specific -14.2% stock movement and its causal factors for Blue Owl Capital (OWL) during this exact period cannot be identified from current available historical data. However, based on information leading up to and within late 2025, several key events and analyst perspectives regarding Blue Owl Capital have been noted.
Here are points highlighting significant developments for Blue Owl Capital (OWL) around the most recent available information:
1. Strong fundraising in evergreen non-traded products. Blue Owl Capital reported an estimated $4.3 billion in evergreen non-traded fundraising from October 1 to December 1, 2025, including a $1.7 billion first close for a digital infrastructure-focused evergreen vehicle. This indicates continued growth in its permanent capital strategies.
2. Executives and employees demonstrate confidence through share purchases. Co-Chief Executive Officer Marc S. Lipschultz purchased shares totaling $2.38 million in early December 2025. Additionally, other executives and employees have purchased over $200 million in company shares, including approximately $70 million in Class A common stock, reflecting strong internal confidence. Co-CEO Douglas I. Ostrover also reported open-market purchases of Class A shares through a trust in early December 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OWL Return | - | 33% | -26% | 47% | 62% | -33% | 56% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 61% | -20% | 31% | 34% | -9% | 160% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OWL Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 40% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 71% | 46% | 58% | 65% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OWL Max Drawdown | - | -14% | -41% | -5% | -2% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -3% | -37% | -13% | -7% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LPLA, TW, CG, MORN, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OWL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 489 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -5.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 148 days |
Compare to LPLA, TW, CG, MORN, BLKS
In The Past
Blue Owl Capital's stock fell -52.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -52.1% loss requires a 108.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OWL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 04302025 | OWL | Blue Owl Capital | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -16.5% | -23.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 04302025 | OWL | Blue Owl Capital | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -16.5% | -23.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Blue Owl Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 108.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,746 |
| Op Inc LTM | 641 |
| FCF LTM | 394 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 631 |
| CFO LTM | 564 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 888 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 27.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.1 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 34.1 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |