Allied Gold (AAUC)
Market Price (3/29/2026): $31.02 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Allied Gold (AAUC)
Market Price (3/29/2026): $31.02Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% | |
| Key risksAAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| Key risksAAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Allied Gold received a definitive all-cash acquisition offer.
On January 26, 2026, Allied Gold announced an agreement to be acquired by Zijin Gold International for C$44 per share in cash, valuing the equity at approximately C$5.5 billion. This offer represented a significant 27% premium over Allied Gold's 30-day volume-weighted average price as of January 23, 2026.
2. The company exceeded 2025 production guidance and provided strong 2026 and 2027 outlooks.
Allied Gold reported preliminary Q4 2025 gold production of 117,004 ounces, bringing the full-year 2025 total to 379,081 ounces, surpassing its annual guidance of over 375,000 ounces. The company further guided for total 2026 gold production between 485,000 and 575,000 ounces, with a 2027 outlook of 640,000 to 680,000 ounces.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.9% change in AAUC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.11 | 31.02 | 46.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,075 | 1,075 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.3 | 3.3 | 46.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 116 | 116 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | 47.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 17.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.0% | 36.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 121.6% change in AAUC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.00 | 31.02 | 121.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 958 | 1,075 | 12.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.7 | 3.3 | 100.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 116 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 121.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | 121.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 7.1% | 36.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 19.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.4% | 28.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 19.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 26.8% | 28.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAUC Return | - | - | - | - | 52% | 35% | 105% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -9% | 8% | 38% | 149% | 6% | 327% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAUC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 57% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 48% | 58% | 57% | 77% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAUC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -23% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -40% | -21% | -19% | -6% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, IAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AAUC has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, IAG
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Allied Gold (AAUC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
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- Gold: The primary product is mined gold, extracted from their mining operations and sold on the market.
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Peter Marrone, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Peter Marrone is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and a significant investor of Allied Gold Corporation, which he and his management team took public in 2023. Prior to Allied Gold, he founded Yamana Gold Inc. in 2003 and served as its Executive Chairman. With over 35 years of experience in mining, business, and capital markets, Mr. Marrone has founded and taken public several companies across various sectors. In his earlier career, he worked as an investment banker and lawyer, providing advice to companies on public listings and establishing governance protocols.
Jason LeBlanc, Chief Financial Officer
Jason LeBlanc serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Allied Gold Corporation. He previously held the position of Chief Financial Officer at Yamana Gold, where he amassed over 20 years of research-based and financial experience within the mining industry. During his tenure at Yamana, Mr. LeBlanc progressed through increasingly senior roles, including Vice President, Finance since 2009, before being appointed CFO in February 2017. He also currently serves as a director of Premium Nickel Resources Ltd.
Johannes Stoltz, Chief Operating Officer
Johannes Stoltz is the Chief Operating Officer, possessing dual qualifications in mining and mechanical engineering. He brings 30 years of operational experience, having worked at various mining operations since 2005. Mr. Stoltz has been responsible for achieving significant growth and cost reductions in both Tier 1 and Mid-Tier companies. He joined Allied Gold in 2023 as the Vice President Operations.
Sofia Tsakos, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
Sofia Tsakos holds the roles of Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary for Allied Gold Corporation. Her previous experience includes serving as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary at Yamana Gold. Ms. Tsakos joined Yamana in December 2007 as Vice President, Corporate Counsel, was appointed Corporate Secretary in November 2009, and became Senior Vice President, General Counsel in June 2010. Before her time at Yamana, she was a partner specializing in securities law at a national law firm, with a focus on the mining sector.
Gerardo Fernandez, Chief Development Officer
Gerardo Fernandez is the Chief Development Officer of the Company. Previously, Mr. Fernandez was the Senior Vice President, Corporate Development at Yamana Gold, where he held several leadership positions in operations, strategic planning, and project development. He holds a Master of Business Administration from Nevada, USA, and degrees in Civil Mining Engineering and BSc. Engineering from the University of Chile.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Allied Gold's business include geopolitical and jurisdictional complexities in its operating regions, the inherent volatility of gold prices, and various operational challenges associated with mining and project development.
- Geopolitical and Jurisdictional Risks in Africa: Allied Gold operates in African jurisdictions, specifically Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ethiopia, which exposes the company to significant geopolitical and regulatory risks. These risks include potential government expropriation or nationalization of mining operations, changes in mining codes and regulations (such as the 2023 mining code in Mali which impacted costs), and broader political and security instability in these regions. Mali, in particular, has been identified as a high-risk mining jurisdiction with a history of government intervention.
- Fluctuating Gold Prices: As a gold mining company, Allied Gold's profitability and financial performance are highly dependent on the cyclical and often volatile price of gold. Significant fluctuations in gold prices can directly impact the company's revenues, operating margins, and free cash flow generation, making it a key business risk.
- Operational Risks and Execution Risk: Allied Gold faces risks inherent to the exploration, development, and operation of its mineral properties. These include potential adverse environmental and climatic conditions, unexpected geological formations, and equipment failures. The company also faces execution risk associated with its growth projects, such as the Sadiola expansion and the Kurmuk project, where successful implementation is crucial for anticipated production growth and cost management. Difficulties in bringing costs under control also present an operational challenge.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Allied Gold (symbol: AAUC) is an international gold mining company with operations in African jurisdictions including Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ethiopia. The company's primary product is gold.
The addressable market for Allied Gold's main product is the global gold mining market. In 2024, the global gold mining market size was estimated at approximately USD 260.86 billion and is projected to reach USD 710.08 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.0% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate valued the global gold mining market at USD 294.81 billion in 2025, with projections to grow to USD 765.85 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.19% during the forecast period. Similarly, the global gold mining market was worth around USD 267.87 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 402.34 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of roughly 3.9% between 2025 and 2034.
Africa is a significant region within the global gold market. In 2023, Africa led global gold production, generating 1,010 tonnes, with Mali, where Allied Gold operates, contributing 100 tonnes. The Middle East & Africa region is anticipated to hold 542.9 tons in the broader gold market in 2026, registering a CAGR of 3.50% during the forecast period of 2026-2034.
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Allied Gold (symbol: AAUC) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, stemming from strategic project developments, operational enhancements, and ongoing exploration efforts.
- New Production from the Kurmuk Project: The Kurmuk Project in Ethiopia is a significant new asset expected to commence production in mid-2026. This project is projected to contribute an initial 100,000-150,000 ounces of gold in 2026. Over its first four years of operation, Kurmuk is anticipated to deliver an average of approximately 290,000 gold ounces annually, which will substantially increase Allied Gold's overall production and revenue.
- Expanded and Optimized Production from Existing Mines: Allied Gold is focused on enhancing output from its current operational assets, including the Sadiola Mine in Mali and the Côte d'Ivoire Complex (Agbaou and Bonikro). The Sadiola Phase 1 expansion is nearing completion, which is expected to boost processing capabilities and drive higher production from that mine, targeting 200,000-230,000 ounces per year. Additionally, operational improvements and access to higher-grade ore across the existing portfolio are expected to lead to increased gold output, with a forecast of 385,000-425,000 ounces from these mines in 2026.
- Successful Exploration and Reserve Growth: The company has a significant exploration budget (e.g., $32 million mentioned for 2025), aimed at increasing mineral reserves and resources. This ongoing exploration success is crucial for extending mine life and identifying new opportunities for future production, directly underpinning long-term revenue growth. As of December 31, 2025, Allied Gold reported a net year-over-year increase in Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves, totaling 11.2 million ounces of gold.
- Favorable Gold Price Environment: While an external market factor, a sustained or rising gold price directly translates into higher revenue for a gold producer like Allied Gold. The company has benefited from a strong gold market, with prices recently surpassing $5,200 per ounce, contributing to exceptional operating margins and free cash flow generation. Continued strength in gold prices would be a significant driver of future revenue.
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Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Allied Gold completed an overnight marketed public offering, issuing 6,400,000 common shares at C$27.35 per share for gross proceeds of approximately C$175.04 million.
- In April 2025, Allied Gold announced an agreement for a bought deal public offering of 15,000,000 common shares at C$5.35 per share, anticipating gross proceeds of approximately C$80 million.
- The company also granted underwriters an option to purchase an additional 2,250,000 shares, which if fully exercised, would result in additional gross proceeds of approximately C$12 million.
Inbound Investments
- In January 2026, Zijin Gold International agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Allied Gold in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately C$5.5 billion (US$4 billion).
- In February 2025, Allied Gold announced a strategic partnership with UAE-based Ambrosia Investment Holding, involving estimated aggregate proceeds of over US$500 million, including approximately US$250 million in upfront cash consideration.
Capital Expenditures
- Allied Gold invested over US$187 million in capital expenditures for the Kurmuk gold mining project in Ethiopia during the nine months leading up to October 2025, with production anticipated to commence in mid-2026.
- The Sadiola mine phased expansion includes total capital expenditures for a 7MT per year processing plant step, estimated at approximately $200 million, with development planned between late 2026 and late 2028.
- In the last 12 months (prior to February 2026), Allied Gold's capital expenditures totaled -$413.15 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Allied Gold Stock Pre-Market (-3.9%): Analyst Downgrade Amidst Pending Acquisition | 01/31/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold Allied Gold Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.5 |
| Rev LTM | 9,479 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,168 |
| FCF LTM | 1,704 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 799 |
| CFO LTM | 2,452 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,600 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 44.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 61.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 42.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.5 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.0 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -22.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 110.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 212.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 39.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 100.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 160.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $31.04 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/09/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.06 | $23.06 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.0% | 49.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.11 | 0.48 |
| Upside Capture | 166.96 | 198.71 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 1.12 | 0.07 | -0.31 |
| Up Beta | 0.19 | -0.02 | 0.08 | 1.42 | -0.15 | -0.30 |
| Down Beta | 0.59 | -0.92 | -1.13 | -0.53 | -0.16 | 0.16 |
| Up Capture | 23% | 230% | 280% | 419% | 119% | 14% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 26 | 38 | 78 | 107 | 107 |
| Down Capture | 21% | -81% | -14% | 83% | 55% | 35% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 15 | 23 | 45 | 72 | 72 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAUC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAUC | 99.7% | 49.1% | 1.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 14.6% | 20.9% | 0.55 | 28.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 20.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 44.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 16.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 12.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAUC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAUC | 14.8% | 49.1% | 1.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.7% | 18.9% | 0.25 | 28.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 20.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 44.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 16.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 12.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAUC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAUC | 7.1% | 49.1% | 1.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.1% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 28.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 20.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 44.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 16.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
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