Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions.
Key risks
AAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions.
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1%
5 Key risks
AAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AAUC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Allied Gold (AAUC) has shown significant activity and growth in late 2025, with several factors contributing to its stock movements. While a precise 62.9% increase for the specified future period cannot be explained factually, available information highlights several key areas of growth and positive sentiment.

1. Strong Performance in a Rising Gold Market. Allied Gold operates within the precious metals industry, which has seen increased interest and higher prices for gold and silver. Gold was hovering around $4,300 per ounce in December 2025, contributing to a positive environment for gold mining stocks. The company's stock has shown substantial increases, with a 30.1% surge in three months and a 203.38% increase over the last year, suggesting strong momentum within a favorable market.

2. Significant Exploration Advancements and Production Growth. Allied Gold has reported considerable exploration progress at its Kurmuk mine in Ethiopia, which is a cornerstone of the company's growth strategy. This transformational development mine is targeting average production of approximately 290,000 gold ounces per annum over the first four years, with a production start aimed for mid-2026. The company has completed extensive drilling, confirming mineralization extensions and making new discoveries, with a five-year exploration goal to reach 5 million ounces of Mineral Resources. Allied Gold's strong production achievements and strategic expansions have been highlighted in its third-quarter 2025 earnings report.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AAUC Return
Peers Return70%19%-9%8%38%143%571%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAUC Win Rate67% 
Peers Win Rate52%48%48%58%57%75% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAUC Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-22%-40%-21%-19%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, IAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

AAUC has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1761 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Allied Gold (AAUC)

Better Bets than Allied Gold (AAUC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AAUC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Allied Gold

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
Mkt Price22.7499.3332.66167.5427.9616.0530.31
Mkt Cap2.6109.00.684.134.09.221.6
Rev LTM1,07521,50311,94410,5686,4442,2358,506
Op Inc LTM2389,359425,2232,6086891,649
FCF LTM-356,1224633,6452,2412111,352
FCF 3Y Avg-652,636202,0411,274-238647
CFO LTM3789,2244755,8373,3485441,946
CFO 3Y Avg1515,616333,8832,3803841,382

Growth & Margins

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
Rev Chg LTM45.4%26.6%20.3%35.2%32.9%53.0%34.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-23.9%14.5%26.0%29.5%44.1%26.0%
Rev Chg Q61.8%20.0%35.6%41.9%25.8%61.0%38.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.2%4.5%8.8%9.4%6.1%13.6%9.1%
Op Mgn LTM22.2%43.5%0.4%49.4%40.5%30.8%35.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.3%23.9%0.9%36.0%25.0%18.8%21.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.0%4.5%-0.1%3.6%1.8%1.1%1.9%
CFO/Rev LTM35.2%42.9%4.0%55.2%52.0%24.3%39.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.3%32.6%0.1%45.6%45.2%24.3%28.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.3%28.5%3.9%34.5%34.8%9.4%19.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.5%13.8%-0.1%22.7%23.1%-27.9%6.9%

Valuation

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
Mkt Cap2.6109.00.684.134.09.221.6
P/S1.94.30.18.04.73.33.8
P/EBIT11.98.8-16.211.311.511.5
P/E-52.512.986.324.617.221.619.4
P/CFO5.310.01.314.59.013.79.5
Total Yield-1.9%9.0%2.7%4.9%6.3%4.6%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.2%1.5%0.8%0.5%0.0%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.6%-3.9%8.8%-23.9%3.8%
D/E0.10.1-0.00.00.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.0--0.0-0.00.1-0.0

Returns

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
1M Rtn37.5%14.4%29.7%1.8%12.3%18.9%16.7%
3M Rtn50.9%26.6%24.0%9.6%24.7%45.5%25.6%
6M Rtn64.8%71.6%55.9%37.3%80.7%120.7%68.2%
12M Rtn-153.8%23.8%107.6%194.5%202.2%153.8%
3Y Rtn-133.5%8.4%251.6%618.3%740.1%251.6%
1M Excs Rtn36.8%13.7%29.0%1.1%11.5%18.2%15.9%
3M Excs Rtn46.0%25.8%19.9%7.4%24.4%44.4%25.1%
6M Excs Rtn52.4%59.2%43.5%24.9%68.3%108.3%55.8%
12M Excs Rtn-140.1%7.7%91.6%177.3%189.4%140.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-63.8%-67.0%181.5%522.8%646.1%181.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Sadiola mine324265
Agbaou mine24267
Corporate and other210103
Bonikro & Hiré mines110223
Kurmuk Project71 
Total956659


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity527,665
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.8%
Average Daily Volume537,296
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity115,771,697
Short % of Basic Shares0.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110520256-K 9/30/2025