Allied Gold (AAUC)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $25.06 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Allied Gold (AAUC)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $25.06Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
| Key risksAAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions. |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
| Key risksAAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Allied Gold (AAUC) experienced significant upward movement in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 23, 2025, driven by several key developments:1. Sadiola Mine Expansion and Production Boost: Allied Gold initiated operations for the Phase 1 expansion of its Sadiola mine in Mali in December 2025. This expansion, featuring a new fresh ore comminution circuit, is projected to increase annual gold output by 17% to nearly 30% from 2023 levels, aiming for 200,000 to 230,000 ounces annually. The upgrade allows for a higher proportion of richer fresh ore in the mill feed, significantly enhancing cash flow. Sadiola alone is expected to produce approximately 60,000 gold ounces in Q4 2025, representing a 40% increase over earlier quarterly averages for the year.
2. Advancement and Exploration Success at Kurmuk Project: The company reported substantial exploration progress at its Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia, which is set to begin production in mid-2026. This project is anticipated to be a major growth driver, targeting an average annual production of around 290,000 gold ounces over its initial four years, with industry-leading all-in sustaining costs below $950 per ounce. Extensive drilling since mid-2024 has led to significant extensions at Dish Mountain and new discoveries at the Tsenge Trend, contributing to a five-year goal of 5 million ounces in Mineral Resources.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 49.5% change in AAUC stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 35.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.65 | 24.89 | 49.49% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 958.09 | 1074.85 | 12.19% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.98 | 2.68 | 35.42% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 113.92 | 115.77 | -1.63% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 49.45% |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | 49.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 32.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 1.1% | 45.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 79.2% change in AAUC stock from 6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 58.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 6232025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.89 | 24.89 | 79.19% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 901.72 | 1074.85 | 19.20% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.69 | 2.68 | 58.75% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109.63 | 115.77 | -5.60% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 78.63% |
Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | 79.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 5.6% | 29.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 21.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 8.9% | 28.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAUC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 21.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.2% | 28.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAUC Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | 70% | 19% | -9% | 8% | 38% | 153% | 598% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAUC Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 48% | 48% | 58% | 57% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAUC Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -22% | -40% | -21% | -19% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, IAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AAUC has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Allied Gold (AAUC):
A younger Kinross Gold.
An emerging Newmont.
A mid-tier Barrick Gold.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The symbol AAUC does not correspond to a public company named Allied Gold. The symbol AAUC is associated with Asia Asset Urban Core. However, if you are referring to a gold mining company named Allied Gold, such as the active **Allied Gold Corporation** (TSX: AGE), its major product is:- Gold: Mined and refined as a precious metal commodity for sale on global markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Upon researching the company "Allied Gold" with the symbol "AAUC", it appears that "AAUC" is not a widely recognized or active stock symbol for a major public gold mining company at present. The historical "Allied Gold Corporation" was acquired by St Barbara Limited in 2012.
However, assuming the intent is to understand the typical customer base for a gold mining company operating in the public sphere, the business model is predominantly business-to-business (B2B). Gold mining companies generally extract gold ore, process it to produce gold doré (unrefined gold bars), and then sell this primary product to specialized entities for further refining and distribution. They do not typically sell directly to individual consumers.
The major customers for a gold mining company generally fall into the following categories:
-
Gold Refiners: These are specialized companies that take the unrefined gold doré from miners and process it to produce high-purity gold bars (e.g., 99.99% pure), grains, or other products that meet international standards (like London Good Delivery specifications). These refined products are then sold to bullion banks, industrial users, or investment markets. Many major refiners are private companies.
- Examples of prominent refiners include Valcambi (private), PAMP (part of MKS PAMP GROUP, private), Heraeus (private), Metalor Technologies SA (private).
-
Bullion Banks: These are large financial institutions that specialize in trading and storing physical precious metals, as well as offering related financial services and derivatives. They purchase large quantities of refined gold from refiners and facilitate its distribution to institutional investors, central banks, and other market participants.
- Examples of public bullion banks include:
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM)
- HSBC Holdings plc (NYSE: HSBC)
- UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS)
- Examples of public bullion banks include:
-
Government Mints and Central Banks: Some gold miners may have direct agreements to sell gold to national mints for the production of coinage or to central banks for official reserves, though this is less common for regular production than sales to refiners and bullion banks. These entities are typically government-owned or quasi-governmental.
- Examples include the U.S. Mint, Royal Canadian Mint, The Perth Mint (though The Perth Mint also has significant commercial operations and is owned by the Government of Western Australia).
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Peter Marrone, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Peter Marrone is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Allied Gold Corporation, which he and his team took public in 2023. He founded Yamana Gold Inc. in 2003, serving as its Executive Chairman, and built it into a 1-million-ounce senior gold producer. Yamana Gold Inc. was sold to Pan American Silver Co and Agnico Eagle Mines in 2023 for US$4.8 billion. With over 35 years of experience, Mr. Marrone has founded and taken public several companies across various sectors. Before founding Yamana, he was the head of investment banking at a major Canadian investment bank and practiced corporate, securities, and international law.
Jason LeBlanc, Chief Financial Officer
Jason LeBlanc is the Chief Financial Officer of Allied Gold. He previously served as the Chief Financial Officer of Yamana Gold Inc. Mr. LeBlanc has over 20 years of research-based and financial experience in the mining industry, having held increasingly senior positions at Yamana, including Vice President, Finance since 2009, before being appointed CFO in February 2017. He also serves as a director of Premium Nickel Resources Ltd.
Daniel Racine, President and Director
Daniel Racine is the President and a director of Allied Gold. He joined Yamana Gold in May 2014 and became President and Chief Executive Officer in August 2018. Prior to Yamana, Mr. Racine was President and Chief Operating Officer of Brigus Gold Corp. from August 2012 to March 2014. Before that, he was Senior Vice President, Mining of Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited, where he was responsible for their global mining operations, starting as a junior mining engineer in 1987.
Justin Dibb, Vice Chairman
Justin Dibb is the Vice-Chairman of Allied Gold Corporation. He co-founded Allied Gold Corp Limited in 2011 and served as its CEO until September 2023, overseeing its transformation into an Africa-focused mining group. Earlier, Mr. Dibb co-founded Dominion Petroleum in 2004, where he acquired and optimized seven projects across Africa before successfully listing the company on the London Stock Exchange with a $240 million market capitalization. He was key in raising $140 million for Dominion Petroleum before its acquisition by Ophir Energy in 2011.
Johannes Stoltz, Chief Operating Officer
Johannes Stoltz is the Chief Operating Officer of Allied Gold. He possesses dual qualifications in mining and mechanical engineering and brings 30 years of operational experience to the company, which he joined in 2023 as Vice President Operations. His prior experience includes optimizing and ramping up operations at Mogalakwena Platinum Mine and South Deep Gold Mine, as well as developing and commissioning opencast mining operations in the Northern Cape, South Africa.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Allied Gold (symbol: AAUC) faces several key risks to its business operations. The most significant risks include geopolitical instability in its operating regions, operational and execution challenges, and the impact of gold price volatility on royalties and profitability.1. Geopolitical Instability and Jurisdiction Risk
Allied Gold operates primarily in Africa, with a notable portion of its future production and profit tied to Mali. This exposes the company to significant geopolitical instability, including potential changes in government, mining laws, and increases in taxes or royalties. There is also a risk of issues with government stakeholders or even appropriation of assets. This geographical concentration of assets in politically sensitive regions contributes to a higher overall risk profile for the company.
2. Operational and Execution Risks
The company is subject to various operational and execution risks inherent in the mining industry. These can include unexpected variations in ore grade and recovery rates, unforeseen geotechnical or metallurgical challenges, and potential cost overruns in mining projects. Furthermore, the development of new mines, such as the Kurmuk project, introduces risks related to timely completion, adherence to budget, securing necessary funding, and obtaining operational and environmental permits.
3. Gold Price Volatility and its Impact on Royalties
While often seen as a benefit, fluctuations in the price of gold present a risk, particularly due to their impact on government royalties. In certain jurisdictions where Allied Gold operates, such as Mali, higher gold prices can directly lead to increased royalty payments, thereby affecting the company's overall profitability and cash flow. Although Allied Gold has implemented some gold price protection programs, the business remains sensitive to the inherent volatility of gold prices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Allied Gold's main product is gold. The addressable market for gold is global.
The global gold market was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to approximately USD 400 billion by the end of 2030 and to USD 457.91 billion by 2032, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.80% from 2024 to 2032.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Allied Gold (AAUC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and operational advancements:- Increased Gold Production from Existing Operations: Allied Gold anticipates higher gold output from its current mines, including Bonikro, Agbaou (Côte d'Ivoire), and Sadiola (Mali). This growth is expected to be fueled by accessing higher-grade areas, operational enhancements, and the completion of the Sadiola Phase 1 expansion. The company projects annual production from existing operations to exceed 375,000 ounces in 2025 and aims for the upper end of its 375,000–400,000 ounces per year outlook in 2026, with more consistent quarter-on-quarter performance.
- Introduction of New Production from the Kurmuk Project: A significant driver of future revenue will be the commencement of production at the Kurmuk project in Ethiopia, expected by mid-2026. This new mine is projected to contribute an estimated 175,000 ounces of gold in the latter half of 2026 and is anticipated to produce an average of approximately 290,000 ounces per annum over its first four years of operation.
- Advancement of the Sadiola Phase 2 Expansion: Allied Gold plans to provide updates on and potentially commit to the expenditure for the Sadiola Phase 2 expansion within the next 2-3 years. While full production from this phase is targeted for late 2028, the development and commitment to this expansion will signal substantial future production capacity, with projections to increase output to an average of 400,000 ounces per year for its first four years of operation.
- Improved Operational Efficiency and Resource Optimization: The company is focusing on continuous enhancements in mining practices, processing capabilities, and mine sequencing to optimize resource extraction. These improvements are expected to lead to better recovery rates, the economic viability of a broader range of ore bodies, and overall lower all-in sustaining costs, indirectly supporting increased production volumes and higher revenues by making more gold economically extractable.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Allied Gold issued 7,143,200 common shares through an overnight marketed offering, generating gross proceeds of approximately $139.6 million and net proceeds of $134.0 million.
- In May 2025, the company completed a 1-for-3 share consolidation in preparation for its listing on the New York Stock Exchange.
- Between 2023 and 2024, the number of outstanding shares significantly increased from 66.17 million to 110 million.
Capital Expenditures
- In the last 12 months, leading up to the third quarter of 2025, Allied Gold's capital expenditures totaled approximately $332.87 million.
- For 2025, anticipated capital expenditures are approximately $410 million, with significant allocations to the Kurmuk project (US$280 million), the Sadiola Phase 1 expansion (US$70 million), and production stripping at Bonikro (US$60 million).
- The company has earmarked an exploration budget of $37 million for 2025, an 85% increase from previous plans, aimed at extending mine life and expanding resources.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Allied Gold Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AAUC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.6% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 0.2% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 47.0% | 47.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.2% | 24.2% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Allied Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.9 |
| Rev LTM | 8,506 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,649 |
| FCF LTM | 1,352 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 647 |
| CFO LTM | 1,946 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,382 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 34.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 38.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 39.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
Returns Analyses
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.