Allied Gold (AAUC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $22.425 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Allied Gold (AAUC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $22.425Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions. | Key risksAAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions. |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% |
| Key risksAAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AAUC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Allied Gold (AAUC) has shown significant activity and growth in late 2025, with several factors contributing to its stock movements. While a precise 62.9% increase for the specified future period cannot be explained factually, available information highlights several key areas of growth and positive sentiment.
1. Strong Performance in a Rising Gold Market. Allied Gold operates within the precious metals industry, which has seen increased interest and higher prices for gold and silver. Gold was hovering around $4,300 per ounce in December 2025, contributing to a positive environment for gold mining stocks. The company's stock has shown substantial increases, with a 30.1% surge in three months and a 203.38% increase over the last year, suggesting strong momentum within a favorable market.
2. Significant Exploration Advancements and Production Growth. Allied Gold has reported considerable exploration progress at its Kurmuk mine in Ethiopia, which is a cornerstone of the company's growth strategy. This transformational development mine is targeting average production of approximately 290,000 gold ounces per annum over the first four years, with a production start aimed for mid-2026. The company has completed extensive drilling, confirming mineralization extensions and making new discoveries, with a five-year exploration goal to reach 5 million ounces of Mineral Resources. Allied Gold's strong production achievements and strategic expansions have been highlighted in its third-quarter 2025 earnings report.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAUC Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | 70% | 19% | -9% | 8% | 38% | 143% | 571% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAUC Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 48% | 48% | 58% | 57% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAUC Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -22% | -40% | -21% | -19% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, IAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AAUC has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1761 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Allied Gold Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AAUC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Allied Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,506 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,649 |
| FCF LTM | 1,352 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 647 |
| CFO LTM | 1,946 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,382 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 34.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 38.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 39.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.6 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 19.4 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 68.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 153.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 251.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 25.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 55.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 140.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 181.5% |
Returns Analyses
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |