Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0%
4   Key risks
AAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Water Treatment Solutions.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 106%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0%
9 Key risks
AAUC key risks include [1] geopolitical instability from its high concentration of assets in politically sensitive jurisdictions such as Mali and [2] increased government royalty payments that are directly triggered by higher gold prices.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Allied Gold (AAUC) stock has gained about 45% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Allied Gold received a definitive all-cash acquisition offer.

On January 26, 2026, Allied Gold announced an agreement to be acquired by Zijin Gold International for C$44 per share in cash, valuing the equity at approximately C$5.5 billion. This offer represented a significant 27% premium over Allied Gold's 30-day volume-weighted average price as of January 23, 2026.

2. The company exceeded 2025 production guidance and provided strong 2026 and 2027 outlooks.

Allied Gold reported preliminary Q4 2025 gold production of 117,004 ounces, bringing the full-year 2025 total to 379,081 ounces, surpassing its annual guidance of over 375,000 ounces. The company further guided for total 2026 gold production between 485,000 and 575,000 ounces, with a 2027 outlook of 640,000 to 680,000 ounces.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 46.9% change in AAUC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020253292026Change
Stock Price ($)21.1131.0246.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,0751,0750.0%
P/S Multiple2.33.346.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1161160.0%
Cumulative Contribution46.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAUC47.0% 
Market (SPY)-5.3%17.3%
Sector (XLB)10.0%36.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 121.6% change in AAUC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120253292026Change
Stock Price ($)14.0031.02121.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9581,07512.2%
P/S Multiple1.73.3100.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)114116-1.6%
Cumulative Contribution121.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAUC121.7% 
Market (SPY)0.6%25.5%
Sector (XLB)7.1%36.2%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAUC  
Market (SPY)9.8%19.6%
Sector (XLB)12.4%28.1%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAUC  
Market (SPY)69.4%19.6%
Sector (XLB)26.8%28.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AAUC Return----52%35%105%
Peers Return19%-9%8%38%149%6%327%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-5%72%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAUC Win Rate----57%67% 
Peers Win Rate48%48%58%57%77%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAUC Max Drawdown-----23%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-40%-21%-19%-6%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-5% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, IAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

AAUC has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,761 days1,480 days

Compare to NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, IAG

In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Allied Gold (AAUC)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Gold: The primary product is mined gold, extracted from their mining operations and sold on the market.

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Peter Marrone, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Peter Marrone is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and a significant investor of Allied Gold Corporation, which he and his management team took public in 2023. Prior to Allied Gold, he founded Yamana Gold Inc. in 2003 and served as its Executive Chairman. With over 35 years of experience in mining, business, and capital markets, Mr. Marrone has founded and taken public several companies across various sectors. In his earlier career, he worked as an investment banker and lawyer, providing advice to companies on public listings and establishing governance protocols.

Jason LeBlanc, Chief Financial Officer

Jason LeBlanc serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Allied Gold Corporation. He previously held the position of Chief Financial Officer at Yamana Gold, where he amassed over 20 years of research-based and financial experience within the mining industry. During his tenure at Yamana, Mr. LeBlanc progressed through increasingly senior roles, including Vice President, Finance since 2009, before being appointed CFO in February 2017. He also currently serves as a director of Premium Nickel Resources Ltd.

Johannes Stoltz, Chief Operating Officer

Johannes Stoltz is the Chief Operating Officer, possessing dual qualifications in mining and mechanical engineering. He brings 30 years of operational experience, having worked at various mining operations since 2005. Mr. Stoltz has been responsible for achieving significant growth and cost reductions in both Tier 1 and Mid-Tier companies. He joined Allied Gold in 2023 as the Vice President Operations.

Sofia Tsakos, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary

Sofia Tsakos holds the roles of Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary for Allied Gold Corporation. Her previous experience includes serving as Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary at Yamana Gold. Ms. Tsakos joined Yamana in December 2007 as Vice President, Corporate Counsel, was appointed Corporate Secretary in November 2009, and became Senior Vice President, General Counsel in June 2010. Before her time at Yamana, she was a partner specializing in securities law at a national law firm, with a focus on the mining sector.

Gerardo Fernandez, Chief Development Officer

Gerardo Fernandez is the Chief Development Officer of the Company. Previously, Mr. Fernandez was the Senior Vice President, Corporate Development at Yamana Gold, where he held several leadership positions in operations, strategic planning, and project development. He holds a Master of Business Administration from Nevada, USA, and degrees in Civil Mining Engineering and BSc. Engineering from the University of Chile.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Allied Gold's business include geopolitical and jurisdictional complexities in its operating regions, the inherent volatility of gold prices, and various operational challenges associated with mining and project development.

  1. Geopolitical and Jurisdictional Risks in Africa: Allied Gold operates in African jurisdictions, specifically Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ethiopia, which exposes the company to significant geopolitical and regulatory risks. These risks include potential government expropriation or nationalization of mining operations, changes in mining codes and regulations (such as the 2023 mining code in Mali which impacted costs), and broader political and security instability in these regions. Mali, in particular, has been identified as a high-risk mining jurisdiction with a history of government intervention.
  2. Fluctuating Gold Prices: As a gold mining company, Allied Gold's profitability and financial performance are highly dependent on the cyclical and often volatile price of gold. Significant fluctuations in gold prices can directly impact the company's revenues, operating margins, and free cash flow generation, making it a key business risk.
  3. Operational Risks and Execution Risk: Allied Gold faces risks inherent to the exploration, development, and operation of its mineral properties. These include potential adverse environmental and climatic conditions, unexpected geological formations, and equipment failures. The company also faces execution risk associated with its growth projects, such as the Sadiola expansion and the Kurmuk project, where successful implementation is crucial for anticipated production growth and cost management. Difficulties in bringing costs under control also present an operational challenge.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Allied Gold (symbol: AAUC) is an international gold mining company with operations in African jurisdictions including Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ethiopia. The company's primary product is gold.

The addressable market for Allied Gold's main product is the global gold mining market. In 2024, the global gold mining market size was estimated at approximately USD 260.86 billion and is projected to reach USD 710.08 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.0% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate valued the global gold mining market at USD 294.81 billion in 2025, with projections to grow to USD 765.85 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.19% during the forecast period. Similarly, the global gold mining market was worth around USD 267.87 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 402.34 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of roughly 3.9% between 2025 and 2034.

Africa is a significant region within the global gold market. In 2023, Africa led global gold production, generating 1,010 tonnes, with Mali, where Allied Gold operates, contributing 100 tonnes. The Middle East & Africa region is anticipated to hold 542.9 tons in the broader gold market in 2026, registering a CAGR of 3.50% during the forecast period of 2026-2034.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Allied Gold (symbol: AAUC) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, stemming from strategic project developments, operational enhancements, and ongoing exploration efforts.

  1. New Production from the Kurmuk Project: The Kurmuk Project in Ethiopia is a significant new asset expected to commence production in mid-2026. This project is projected to contribute an initial 100,000-150,000 ounces of gold in 2026. Over its first four years of operation, Kurmuk is anticipated to deliver an average of approximately 290,000 gold ounces annually, which will substantially increase Allied Gold's overall production and revenue.
  2. Expanded and Optimized Production from Existing Mines: Allied Gold is focused on enhancing output from its current operational assets, including the Sadiola Mine in Mali and the Côte d'Ivoire Complex (Agbaou and Bonikro). The Sadiola Phase 1 expansion is nearing completion, which is expected to boost processing capabilities and drive higher production from that mine, targeting 200,000-230,000 ounces per year. Additionally, operational improvements and access to higher-grade ore across the existing portfolio are expected to lead to increased gold output, with a forecast of 385,000-425,000 ounces from these mines in 2026.
  3. Successful Exploration and Reserve Growth: The company has a significant exploration budget (e.g., $32 million mentioned for 2025), aimed at increasing mineral reserves and resources. This ongoing exploration success is crucial for extending mine life and identifying new opportunities for future production, directly underpinning long-term revenue growth. As of December 31, 2025, Allied Gold reported a net year-over-year increase in Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves, totaling 11.2 million ounces of gold.
  4. Favorable Gold Price Environment: While an external market factor, a sustained or rising gold price directly translates into higher revenue for a gold producer like Allied Gold. The company has benefited from a strong gold market, with prices recently surpassing $5,200 per ounce, contributing to exceptional operating margins and free cash flow generation. Continued strength in gold prices would be a significant driver of future revenue.

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Share Issuance

  • In October 2025, Allied Gold completed an overnight marketed public offering, issuing 6,400,000 common shares at C$27.35 per share for gross proceeds of approximately C$175.04 million.
  • In April 2025, Allied Gold announced an agreement for a bought deal public offering of 15,000,000 common shares at C$5.35 per share, anticipating gross proceeds of approximately C$80 million.
  • The company also granted underwriters an option to purchase an additional 2,250,000 shares, which if fully exercised, would result in additional gross proceeds of approximately C$12 million.

Inbound Investments

  • In January 2026, Zijin Gold International agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Allied Gold in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately C$5.5 billion (US$4 billion).
  • In February 2025, Allied Gold announced a strategic partnership with UAE-based Ambrosia Investment Holding, involving estimated aggregate proceeds of over US$500 million, including approximately US$250 million in upfront cash consideration.

Capital Expenditures

  • Allied Gold invested over US$187 million in capital expenditures for the Kurmuk gold mining project in Ethiopia during the nine months leading up to October 2025, with production anticipated to commence in mid-2026.
  • The Sadiola mine phased expansion includes total capital expenditures for a 7MT per year processing plant step, estimated at approximately $200 million, with development planned between late 2026 and late 2028.
  • In the last 12 months (prior to February 2026), Allied Gold's capital expenditures totaled -$413.15 million.

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to AAUC.

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Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
19.2%19.2%-0.5%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
Mkt Price31.02102.2139.73193.3028.7617.6935.38
Mkt Cap3.6111.51.096.834.710.222.5
Rev LTM1,07522,66915,67911,9087,0512,8539,479
Op Inc LTM23811,023546,3063,2281,1082,168
FCF LTM-357,2993104,2622,5668411,704
FCF 3Y Avg-653,4521162,1081,4816799
CFO LTM37810,3343236,8173,7601,1432,452
CFO 3Y Avg1516,4871284,4602,6045961,600

Growth & Margins

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
Rev Chg LTM45.4%21.3%48.0%43.7%36.9%74.7%44.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-26.2%26.1%28.1%27.0%47.7%27.0%
Rev Chg Q61.8%20.6%136.2%60.3%42.9%131.6%61.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.2%5.4%31.3%12.7%9.4%27.7%12.4%
Op Mgn LTM22.2%48.6%0.3%53.0%45.8%38.8%42.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.3%28.8%0.8%38.8%31.0%23.7%26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.0%5.1%-0.0%3.6%5.3%9.1%4.4%
CFO/Rev LTM35.2%45.6%2.1%57.2%53.3%40.1%42.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.3%34.3%0.9%48.1%46.2%28.7%31.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.3%32.2%2.0%35.8%36.4%29.5%30.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.5%16.3%0.8%20.2%25.0%-17.0%8.5%

Valuation

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
Mkt Cap3.6111.51.096.834.710.222.5
P/S3.34.90.18.14.93.64.3
P/EBIT21.19.613.514.410.69.512.0
P/E-93.315.779.021.714.515.415.6
P/CFO9.510.83.114.29.28.99.4
Total Yield-1.1%7.4%2.3%5.4%7.3%6.5%5.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.0%1.0%0.8%0.4%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.7%14.7%3.4%8.8%-18.4%4.7%
D/E0.00.10.80.00.00.10.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.7-0.0-0.00.0-0.0

Returns

AAUCNEMGOLDAEMKGCIAGMedian
NameAllied G.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Kinross .Iamgold  
1M Rtn-2.0%-21.4%-30.9%-23.2%-22.2%-28.0%-22.7%
3M Rtn24.5%-3.2%15.3%5.7%-3.0%0.5%3.1%
6M Rtn81.8%20.5%50.8%18.8%19.6%42.4%31.5%
12M Rtn105.6%115.3%54.6%81.9%131.7%181.2%110.5%
3Y Rtn105.6%125.3%26.8%300.2%531.7%538.6%212.7%
1M Excs Rtn6.6%-12.0%-21.7%-13.7%-13.8%-17.9%-13.8%
3M Excs Rtn34.9%5.9%22.8%14.9%6.5%10.2%12.6%
6M Excs Rtn87.2%26.3%59.5%25.0%25.5%53.2%39.8%
12M Excs Rtn94.1%107.0%36.6%74.9%125.7%178.1%100.5%
3Y Excs Rtn43.8%74.1%-18.5%247.5%554.3%546.0%160.8%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Sadiola mine324265
Agbaou mine24267
Corporate and other210103
Bonikro & Hiré mines110223
Kurmuk Project71 
Total956659


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$31.04 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.6 
First Trading Date11/09/2023 
Distance from 52W High-3.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$23.06$23.06
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA34.6%34.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility26.0%49.1%
Downside Capture0.110.48
Upside Capture166.96198.71
Correlation (SPY)16.4% 
AAUC Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.280.160.381.120.07-0.31
Up Beta0.19-0.020.081.42-0.15-0.30
Down Beta0.59-0.92-1.13-0.53-0.160.16
Up Capture23%230%280%419%119%14%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days11263878107107
Down Capture21%-81%-14%83%55%35%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days101523457272

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAUC
AAUC99.7%49.1%1.94-
Sector ETF (XLB)14.6%20.9%0.5528.7%
Equity (SPY)14.5%18.9%0.5920.2%
Gold (GLD)50.2%27.7%1.4644.1%
Commodities (DBC)17.8%17.6%0.8516.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.4%16.4%-0.1516.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.7%44.2%-0.4912.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAUC
AAUC14.8%49.1%1.94-
Sector ETF (XLB)6.7%18.9%0.2528.7%
Equity (SPY)11.8%17.0%0.5420.2%
Gold (GLD)20.7%17.7%0.9644.1%
Commodities (DBC)11.6%18.9%0.5016.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.0%18.8%0.0716.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.0%56.6%0.2912.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAUC
AAUC7.1%49.1%1.94-
Sector ETF (XLB)10.1%20.6%0.4428.7%
Equity (SPY)14.0%17.9%0.6720.2%
Gold (GLD)13.3%15.8%0.7044.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%17.6%0.3916.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1916.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)66.4%66.8%1.0612.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 22820267.4%
Average Daily Volume0.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity115.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative000
Median Positive   
Median Negative   
Max Positive   
Max Negative   

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/05/20256-K