Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 347x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.0%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 347x
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.0%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AAUC Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AAUC Return------0%
Peers Return38%-9%-6%-3%-0%78%100%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAUC Win Rate-----67% 
Peers Win Rate37%35%38%40%37%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAUC Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-22%-26%-19%-17%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

AAUC has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1761 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Allied Gold (AAUC)

Better Bets than Allied Gold (AAUC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Low Can Allied Gold Stock Really Go?Return

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AAUC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.0%3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.8%-16.8%-16.8%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.0%8.0%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.1%-23.1%-23.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.0%3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.8%-16.8%-16.8%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.0%8.0%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.1%-23.1%-23.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Allied Gold

Financials

AAUCBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAllied G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Price17.4533.06188.908.261.9282.3125.26
Mkt Cap2.056.736.42.5-90.336.4
Rev LTM95813,8241,3341,098-21,5031,334
Op Inc LTM1935,351911322-9,359911
FCF LTM-68--938238-6,12285
FCF 3Y Avg-83-42113-2,63677
CFO LTM269-1,176437-9,224806
CFO 3Y Avg99-1,017324-5,616670

Growth & Margins

AAUCBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAllied G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Rev Chg LTM31.8%16.9%18.1%26.8%-26.6%26.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.9%0.7%16.8%-23.9%11.3%
Rev Chg Q28.8%16.4%42.0%47.4%-20.0%28.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.3%3.9%8.9%7.2%-4.5%6.3%
Op Mgn LTM20.1%38.7%68.3%29.4%-43.5%38.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.1%29.4%63.5%19.4%-23.9%23.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.9%3.2%1.6%2.9%-4.5%2.9%
CFO/Rev LTM28.1%-88.1%39.8%-42.9%41.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.9%-82.3%36.2%-32.6%34.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-7.0%--70.3%21.7%-28.5%7.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-10.9%-6.5%10.5%-13.8%8.5%

Valuation

AAUCBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAllied G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Cap2.056.736.42.5-90.336.4
P/S2.14.127.32.3-4.24.1
P/EBIT346.69.936.38.1-8.69.9
P/E-15.520.546.416.1-12.616.1
P/CFO7.4-31.05.8-9.88.6
Total Yield-6.5%5.8%2.7%6.2%-9.2%5.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.9%0.5%0.0%-1.2%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--0.4%5.4%-3.6%3.6%
D/E0.10.00.00.1-0.10.1
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.0-0.1--0.0-0.0

Returns

AAUCBFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameAllied G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
1M Rtn-0.3%0.9%-15.3%-7.8%-41.6%-2.4%-5.1%
3M Rtn35.4%57.4%18.8%28.1%-51.5%33.0%30.5%
6M Rtn-82.0%14.5%38.8%-61.1%50.0%
12M Rtn-68.6%40.0%61.6%-78.9%65.1%
3Y Rtn-136.8%57.8%197.1%-112.8%124.8%
1M Excs Rtn-2.5%-3.6%-16.7%-8.7%-40.9%-5.9%-7.3%
3M Excs Rtn24.5%46.2%7.7%19.9%-64.3%22.6%21.2%
6M Excs Rtn-60.2%-7.2%17.1%-39.4%28.2%
12M Excs Rtn-52.1%23.1%44.2%-56.5%48.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-56.5%-17.5%116.1%-34.0%45.2%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity883,879
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020252.0%
Average Daily Volume302,685
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.92
Basic Shares Quantity113,917,566
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

SEC Filings

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Report Date

Insider Activity

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