Yum Brands (YUM)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $150.815 | Market Cap: $41.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Yum Brands (YUM)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $150.815Market Cap: $41.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
YUM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 3.8% movement in Yum Brands (YUM) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025, which primarily reflects a recent pullback in the stock.
1. Underperformance and Strategic Review of Pizza Hut: Yum! Brands announced it is exploring strategic options for its Pizza Hut brand, which has experienced eight consecutive quarters of same-store sales declines and faces significant challenges in global markets. Analysts have expressed caution about the limited upside a potential divestiture might offer.
2. Concerns Regarding High Debt Load and Leverage: Analysts have highlighted concerns over Yum! Brands' substantial gross debt of $11.3 billion and a leverage ratio of 4x. This leverage ratio is considered high, exceeding the 3x threshold typically used by commercial banks for highly leveraged companies.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YUM Return | 10% | 30% | -6% | 4% | 5% | 13% | 65% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 33% | -17% | 24% | -5% | -2% | 65% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YUM Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 55% | 42% | 55% | 45% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YUM Max Drawdown | -44% | -7% | -23% | -8% | -3% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -8% | -33% | -10% | -17% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, QSR, DPZ, CMG, PZZA. See YUM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | YUM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 542 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 510 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, SBUX, CMG, DRI, WEN
In The Past
Yum Brands's stock fell -24.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -24.2% loss requires a 31.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to YUM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Yum Brands
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,584 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,172 |
| FCF LTM | 1,459 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,322 |
| CFO LTM | 1,747 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,558 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.6 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 27.5 |
| P/CFO | 20.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 2,830 | 2,834 | 2,793 | 2,272 | 2,491 |
| Taco Bell Division | 2,641 | 2,437 | 2,238 | 2,031 | 2,079 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 1,019 | 1,004 | 1,028 | 1,002 | 1,027 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | 586 | 567 | 525 | 347 | |
| Total | 7,076 | 6,842 | 6,584 | 5,652 | 5,597 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 1,304 | 1,198 | 1,230 | 922 | 1,052 |
| Taco Bell Division | 944 | 850 | 758 | 696 | 683 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 391 | 387 | 387 | 335 | 369 |
| Unallocated Refranchising gain (loss) | 29 | 27 | 35 | 34 | 37 |
| Unallocated Franchise and property expenses | -1 | -6 | 1 | -4 | -14 |
| Unallocated Other income (expense) | -9 | 52 | -14 | -146 | -9 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | -14 | -24 | 2 | -22 | |
| Corporate and unallocated General and administrative (G&A) expenses | -326 | -297 | -260 | -312 | -188 |
| Total | 2,318 | 2,187 | 2,139 | 1,503 | 1,930 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 2,281 | 2,227 | 2,313 | 2,011 | 2,042 |
| Taco Bell Division | 1,544 | 1,483 | 1,397 | 1,387 | 1,330 |
| Corporate and Unallocated | 962 | 757 | 820 | 1,113 | 1,058 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 814 | 788 | 850 | 804 | 801 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | 630 | 591 | 586 | 537 | |
| Total | 6,231 | 5,846 | 5,966 | 5,852 | 5,231 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -5.1% | -3.9% | -1.2% |
| 4/30/2025 | 1.9% | 0.4% | -2.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | -4.2% | -3.8% | -4.1% |
| 2/7/2024 | 1.9% | 3.1% | 10.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.8% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 9.7% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -5.7% | -15.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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