Tearsheet

Paychex (PAYX)


Market Price (12/12/2025): $114.63 | Market Cap: $41.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Paychex (PAYX)


Market Price (12/12/2025): $114.63
Market Cap: $41.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.2x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PAYX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Paychex (PAYX) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to today:

1. Paychex's Q1 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Missed Revenue Expectations
On September 30, 2025, Paychex reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results. Although the company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22 surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $1.20, its revenue of $1.54 billion fell short of the projected $1.57 billion. This revenue miss led to a negative market reaction, with the stock declining by 1.4% on the day of the announcement, indicating investor concerns about top-line growth despite solid profitability.

2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions
During this period, several analyst firms adjusted their ratings and price targets for Paychex, reflecting a more cautious outlook. For instance, Robert W. Baird lowered its price target from $153.00 to $148.00 and set a "neutral" rating on October 1, 2025. On December 1, 2025, TD Cowen reduced its price target from $126 to $114 while maintaining a "Hold" rating. Jefferies also cut its price target from $130 to $118 on December 8, 2025, reiterating a "Hold" rating. Additionally, Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an "Underweight" rating and a $128 price target on October 22, 2025. These numerous downward revisions contributed to negative sentiment around the stock.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAYX Return13%50%-13%6%21%-17%58%
Peers Return47%28%-22%18%5%-18%49%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%114%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAYX Win Rate75%67%42%42%75%42% 
Peers Win Rate72%58%38%53%50%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAYX Max Drawdown-40%-7%-19%-8%-2%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-16%-35%-19%-19%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, INTU, PAYC, PCTY, TNET. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/11/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPAYXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven537 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven231 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven51 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-55.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2062 days1480 days

Compare to ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG


In The Past

Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Paychex (PAYX)

Better Bets than Paychex (PAYX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.4%24.4%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
10.7%10.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
3.9%3.9%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.3%6.3%0.0%
PAYX_11072025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11072025PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-3.1%
PAYX_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.7%6.2%-8.2%
PAYX_3312020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312020PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.2%61.0%-5.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.4%24.4%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
10.7%10.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
3.9%3.9%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.3%6.3%0.0%
PAYX_11072025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11072025PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-3.1%
PAYX_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.7%6.2%-8.2%
PAYX_3312020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312020PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.2%61.0%-5.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Paychex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PAYXADPINTUPAYCPCTYTNETMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Intuit Paycom S.PaylocityTrinet  
Mkt Price114.63262.99676.01166.08149.2258.31157.65
Mkt Cap41.3106.5188.69.38.32.825.3
Rev LTM5,57220,90319,4332,0011,6405,0395,305
Op Inc LTM2,2085,4725,1925583142361,383
FCF LTM1,7094,2106,3533903362381,050
FCF 3Y Avg1,6703,8465,2843313104201,045
CFO LTM1,9014,7586,4826434133071,272
CFO 3Y Avg1,8354,4105,4825433854941,189

Growth & Margins

PAYXADPINTUPAYCPCTYTNETMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Intuit Paycom S.PaylocityTrinet  
Rev Chg LTM5.6%7.1%17.1%9.7%13.3%-1.1%8.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%7.4%13.5%16.0%21.4%1.0%10.4%
Rev Chg Q10.2%7.1%18.3%9.2%12.5%-1.6%9.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%1.7%3.2%2.1%2.8%-0.4%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM39.6%26.2%26.7%27.9%19.1%4.7%26.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg40.5%25.8%24.2%29.3%18.0%7.7%25.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.9%-0.1%0.5%-0.2%0.1%-0.2%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM34.1%22.8%33.4%32.1%25.2%6.1%28.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg34.7%22.5%32.3%29.8%26.8%9.8%28.3%
FCF/Rev LTM30.7%20.1%32.7%19.5%20.5%4.7%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg31.6%19.6%31.1%18.2%21.5%8.3%20.5%

Valuation

PAYXADPINTUPAYCPCTYTNETMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Intuit Paycom S.PaylocityTrinet  
Mkt Cap41.3106.5188.69.38.32.825.3
P/S8.25.79.75.85.40.65.8
P/EBIT20.020.435.119.028.213.620.2
P/E27.628.745.825.839.324.128.2
P/CFO24.025.029.118.221.410.522.7
Total Yield6.8%5.5%2.8%4.6%2.5%5.7%5.1%
Dividend Yield3.2%2.1%0.7%0.7%0.0%1.6%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.7%3.5%3.1%2.9%3.3%8.9%3.4%
D/E0.10.10.00.00.00.30.1
Net D/E0.10.00.0-0.0-0.00.20.0

Returns

PAYXADPINTUPAYCPCTYTNETMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Intuit Paycom S.PaylocityTrinet  
1M Rtn2.7%3.1%3.3%-2.3%0.2%3.5%2.9%
3M Rtn-14.6%-11.8%2.5%-26.5%-13.2%-18.2%-13.9%
6M Rtn-24.0%-14.2%-11.5%-33.5%-18.0%-25.4%-21.0%
12M Rtn-16.3%-10.7%1.5%-30.4%-26.5%-37.7%-21.4%
3Y Rtn2.1%5.6%67.9%-48.0%-29.1%-12.0%-5.0%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%2.3%2.5%-3.1%-0.6%2.7%2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-19.1%-15.2%0.0%-30.0%-16.9%-20.0%-18.0%
6M Excs Rtn-38.2%-28.4%-25.6%-47.7%-32.2%-39.5%-35.2%
12M Excs Rtn-30.1%-23.8%-8.8%-42.8%-40.7%-50.4%-35.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-71.0%-66.6%1.8%-120.9%-100.8%-91.8%-81.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment5,2785,0074,6124,0574,040
Total5,2785,0074,6124,0574,040


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment1,690    
Total1,690    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,604,639
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.4%
Average Daily Volume2,768,733
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.64
Basic Shares Quantity360,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/30/2025-1.4%-3.2%-3.5%
6/25/2025-9.4%-3.2%-2.1%
3/26/20254.2%7.3%0.1%
12/19/20241.4%5.0%6.6%
10/1/20244.9%2.4%5.7%
6/26/2024-6.1%-5.3%-0.8%
4/2/20240.4%1.8%-2.3%
12/21/2023-7.0%-6.5%-3.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121513
# Negative12911
Median Positive3.5%2.7%6.6%
Median Negative-3.3%-4.5%-2.3%
Max Positive6.5%9.4%14.4%
Max Negative-9.4%-7.9%-10.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025930202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025711202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025326202510-Q 2/28/2025
113020241219202410-Q 11/30/2024
83120241001202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024711202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024402202410-Q 2/29/2024
113020231221202310-Q 11/30/2023
8312023928202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023714202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023330202310-Q 2/28/2023
113020221222202210-Q 11/30/2022
8312022929202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022715202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022331202210-Q 2/28/2022
113020211222202110-Q 11/30/2021