Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $92.46 | Market Cap: $33.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (3/23/2026): $92.46Market Cap: $33.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 6.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Key risksPAYX key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 6.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Key risksPAYX key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Paychex (PAYX) stock has lost about 15% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Outlook and Moderated Organic Growth Expectations.
Despite exceeding second-quarter earnings estimates, Paychex revised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue outlook downwards, anticipating results at the lower end of its previously projected ranges for Management Solutions, PEO, and total revenue. This adjustment reflects a more conservative stance due to a stable yet unpromising operating environment characterized by stagnant employment, leading to a downward revision of fiscal 2026 revenue estimates from $6.54 billion with an anticipated organic growth of 4.8% to $6.47 billion with a lower growth rate of 3.5%.
2. Decline in GAAP Earnings Per Share and Softness in Service Segments.
While Paychex reported an 11% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share to $1.26 in Q2 2026, its GAAP diluted earnings per share decreased by 4% to $1.10, primarily attributed to higher acquisition-related costs and increased interest expense. Additionally, the growth within the Management Solutions segment was moderated by softer-than-expected revenue per client, and the PEO and Insurance Solutions segment experienced weaknesses in its Insurance Solutions component, contributing to revenue falling short of expectations.
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1. Lowered Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Outlook and Moderated Organic Growth Expectations.
Despite exceeding second-quarter earnings estimates, Paychex revised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue outlook downwards, anticipating results at the lower end of its previously projected ranges for Management Solutions, PEO, and total revenue. This adjustment reflects a more conservative stance due to a stable yet unpromising operating environment characterized by stagnant employment, leading to a downward revision of fiscal 2026 revenue estimates from $6.54 billion with an anticipated organic growth of 4.8% to $6.47 billion with a lower growth rate of 3.5%.
2. Decline in GAAP Earnings Per Share and Softness in Service Segments.
While Paychex reported an 11% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share to $1.26 in Q2 2026, its GAAP diluted earnings per share decreased by 4% to $1.10, primarily attributed to higher acquisition-related costs and increased interest expense. Additionally, the growth within the Management Solutions segment was moderated by softer-than-expected revenue per client, and the PEO and Insurance Solutions segment experienced weaknesses in its Insurance Solutions component, contributing to revenue falling short of expectations.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.3% change in PAYX stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 110.54 | 92.55 | -16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,793 | 6,034 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.9% | 26.4% | -5.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.7 | 20.8 | -15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360 | 359 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | 16.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.2% | 4.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.3% change in PAYX stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 136.70 | 92.55 | -32.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,572 | 6,034 | 8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.7% | 26.4% | -11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.7 | 20.8 | -29.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360 | 359 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -32.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 16.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.8% | 11.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.8% change in PAYX stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 146.50 | 92.55 | -36.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,370 | 6,034 | 12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.0% | 26.4% | -17.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.7 | 20.8 | -32.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360 | 359 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -36.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 41.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.8% | 43.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.9% change in PAYX stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 100.45 | 92.55 | -7.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,817 | 6,034 | 25.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.4% | 26.4% | -13.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.7 | 20.8 | -15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360 | 359 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -7.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 67.1% | 48.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAYX Return | 50% | -13% | 6% | 21% | -17% | -17% | 15% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -22% | 18% | 5% | -17% | -27% | -25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAYX Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 38% | 53% | 50% | 45% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAYX Max Drawdown | -7% | -19% | -8% | -2% | -20% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -35% | -19% | -19% | -24% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADP, INTU, PAYC, PCTY, TNET. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAYX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 537 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,062 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ADP, INTU, PAYC, PCTY, TNET
In The Past
Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Paychex (PAYX)
Paychex, Inc. provides integrated human capital management solutions for human resources (HR), payroll, benefits, and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States and Europe. The company offers payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; and regulatory compliance services, such as new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. It also provides HR solutions, including payroll, employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and the on-site availability of a professionally trained HR representative; and retirement services administration, including plan implementation, ongoing compliance with government regulations, employee and employer reporting, participant and employer online access, electronic funds transfer, and other administrative services. In addition, the company offers cloud-based HR administration software products for employee benefits management and administration, time and attendance, digital communication solutions, recruiting, and onboarding solutions; plan administration outsourcing and state unemployment insurance services; various business services to small to medium-sized businesses comprising payroll funding and outsourcing services, which include payroll processing, invoicing, and tax preparation; and payment processing services, financial fitness programs, and a small-business loan resource center. Further, it provides insurance services for property and casualty coverage, such as workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cyber security protection, and commercial auto, as well as health and benefits coverage, including health, dental, vision, and life. The company markets and sells its services primarily through its direct sales force. Paychex, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Paychex:
Paychex is like **ADP for small to medium-sized businesses.**
Paychex is like the **Salesforce for human resources, payroll, and benefits management.**
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- Payroll Processing Services: Manages payroll calculations, tax administration, employee payments, and regulatory compliance for businesses.
- Human Resources (HR) Solutions: Provides comprehensive HR management, including employer compliance, benefits administration, and risk management outsourcing.
- Retirement Services Administration: Administers retirement plans, covering implementation, ongoing compliance, reporting, and participant access.
- Cloud-based HR Administration Software: Offers software products for managing employee benefits, time and attendance, recruiting, and onboarding.
- Insurance Services: Provides various insurance coverages, including property & casualty (e.g., workers' compensation) and health & benefits (e.g., health, dental, vision).
- Business Services: Offers additional services such as payment processing, financial fitness programs, and a small-business loan resource center.
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Major Customers of Paychex (PAYX)
Paychex, Inc. primarily sells its integrated human capital management solutions to other companies.
Its major customers are small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) across a wide range of industries in the United States and Europe. These businesses utilize Paychex for payroll, HR, benefits administration, insurance, and other related services.
Due to the highly fragmented nature of its customer base, which comprises hundreds of thousands of SMBs, Paychex does not have a small number of individually identifiable "major customer companies" whose names and public symbols could be listed.
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John Gibson, President and Chief Executive Officer
John Gibson assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Paychex in October 2022. He joined Paychex in May 2013 as Senior Vice President of Service and was promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer in December 2021. Prior to joining Paychex, he served in senior executive positions at HR outsourcing and technology companies, including Ameritech (now AT&T) and Convergys (now Concentrix), where he was president of the HR management division providing global HR solutions. He also previously served as CEO of Tinker, Inc. Under his leadership, Paychex completed its largest acquisition, Paycor, in April 2025.
Robert Schrader, Chief Financial Officer
Robert Schrader was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Paychex in October 2023. He joined Paychex in December 2014 as Director, Internal Audit, and subsequently held leadership roles including Senior Director, Financial Planning and Analysis, Vice President and Controller, and Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Before his tenure at Paychex, Schrader served as Chief Financial Officer for Unither Manufacturing, LLC. He also spent 10 years at Bausch & Lomb, Inc., where his positions included Vice President of Finance and Controller of Global Quality and Operations, and he was a former Audit Manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
Mason Argiropoulos, Chief Human Resources Officer
Mason Argiropoulos serves as the Chief Human Resources Officer at Paychex.
Prabha Sipi Bhandari, Chief Legal Officer, Chief Ethics Officer, and Secretary
Prabha Sipi Bhandari holds the titles of Chief Legal Officer, Chief Ethics Officer, and Secretary at Paychex.
Ryan Bergstrom, Chief Product Officer
Ryan Bergstrom is the Chief Product Officer at Paychex.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Paychex's business include intense competition, significant regulatory and compliance changes, and macroeconomic pressures affecting its small to medium-sized business clients.
- Intense Competition and Challenges to Organic Revenue Growth: Paychex faces significant challenges in achieving organic revenue growth due to intense competition within the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) market. Analysts perceive strategic acquisitions, such as that of Paycor, primarily as defensive moves with limited potential for long-term organic growth, highlighting the persistent competitive pressures in the sector.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risks: As a provider of human capital management solutions, Paychex's business model is heavily reliant on navigating complex and evolving regulatory landscapes. Significant legislative changes, such as the potential sunset of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions, could alter income tax withholding rules and introduce substantial implementation risks. Additionally, the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and the subsequent ramp-up of state-level AI regulations concerning hiring bias, data privacy, and copyright protections pose ongoing compliance challenges that Paychex and its clients must address.
- Macroeconomic Pressures: Paychex's business is directly impacted by the macroeconomic environment, particularly factors like inflation and interest rate changes, which affect the financial health of its small and medium-sized business clients. If these client businesses struggle, Paychex faces the risk of reduced demand for its services or even clients failing to reimburse payments made on their behalf, a financial risk inherent in its model. Historically, Paychex's stock has also experienced significant declines during major economic crises, underscoring its vulnerability to broader market shifts.
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The clear emerging threat to Paychex stems from the rise of highly integrated, cloud-native human capital management (HCM) platforms and specialized fintech/insurtech solutions. These new entrants leverage advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and modern cloud infrastructure to offer small to medium-sized businesses a more seamless, automated, and often more cost-effective experience across payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance services. They aim to provide a unified user interface, deeper integrations, and greater automation, potentially disintermediating traditional service models and accelerating the shift away from fragmented or more manually intensive solutions. This trend represents a fundamental shift in service delivery and customer expectation, challenging established providers like Paychex on efficiency, user experience, and pricing.
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Paychex, Inc. provides integrated human capital management solutions to small and medium-sized businesses, encompassing a range of services from payroll and HR to benefits and insurance. The addressable markets for its main products and services in the United States and globally are substantial:
Payroll Processing and Tax Administration
- The United States payroll services market is estimated at approximately USD 8.44 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 11.06 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.54% during the forecast period.
- The broader Payroll & Bookkeeping Services market in the U.S. was valued at USD 75.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 76.5 billion in 2025.
- The U.S. HR & Payroll Software market was valued at USD 20.9 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 29.2 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 4.4%.
Human Resources (HR) Solutions and Human Capital Management (HCM) Software
- The Human Capital Management (HCM) in the SMB market is estimated to have been around USD 10 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 18.51 billion by 2031, exhibiting an 8% CAGR from 2024 to 2031.
- The global Human Capital Management market was valued at USD 29 billion in 2023 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 4% between 2024 and 2032. North America dominated this market with a share of over 39% in 2023.
- Another estimate places the global HCM market size at USD 34.12 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 76.22 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 9.40%. North America held a 45.50% share of this global market in 2025.
- The U.S. Human Capital Management market size was USD 10.14 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 24.73 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 9.32% from 2025 to 2034.
- The global HR Outsourcing market was valued at approximately USD 31.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 56.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.1%. North America held a dominant share of more than 37% in 2024, contributing USD 11.54 billion in revenue. The U.S. market alone generated USD 10.8 billion in 2024.
- The HR Outsourcing market in the U.S. is estimated at US$14.2 billion in 2024.
- The global HR Software market size is projected at approximately USD 30 billion (USD 29956.66 million) in 2025 and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 68.5 billion (USD 68563.83 million) by 2034, registering a CAGR of 10.9%. North America remains the global leader with a 38% share. Small and medium businesses represent 61% of U.S. HR tech adoption.
Retirement Services Administration
- Pooled Employer Plans (PEPs), a growing option for small businesses, are expected to see their assets reach $25 billion by the end of 2025, an increase from $9 billion at the end of 2023.
- In 2024, 54% of employees at businesses with fewer than 50 workers in the U.S. had access to a defined contribution plan, up from 47% in 2020. For companies with 51 to 100 employees, 67% had access in 2024, compared with 66% in 2020.
Insurance Services
- The U.S. Small and Medium Business (SMB) commercial insurance market is approximately $110 billion.
- The global SME Insurance market was valued at USD 417.2 billion in 2023 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 7% between 2024 and 2032.
- The United States SME insurance market had a market share of approximately USD 7.42 billion (USD 7420.45 million) in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5%. North America holds 38% of the global SME insurance share.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Paychex (PAYX) over the next 2-3 years:
- Paycor Acquisition and Integration: The recent acquisition of Paycor is a significant driver of revenue growth, contributing substantially to Paychex's fiscal year 2026 total revenue growth guidance of 16.5% to 18.5%. The integration is expected to generate both client additions from Paycor's base and revenue synergies through cross-selling an expanded suite of HR and payroll solutions across different market segments.
- Expansion of Management Solutions through Client Acquisition and Product Penetration: Paychex anticipates continued revenue growth from its Management Solutions segment by increasing its client base and enhancing product penetration. This involves attracting new clients to its comprehensive human capital management (HCM) solutions and selling additional services, including newly launched products like Paychex Flex Engage and Recruiting Copilot, to existing clients.
- Growth in Professional Employer Organization (PEO) and Insurance Solutions: The PEO and Insurance Solutions segment is expected to continue growing, driven primarily by an increase in the number of average worksite employees and higher PEO and insurance revenues. Paychex projects this segment to grow in the range of 6% to 8% for fiscal year 2026.
- Price Realization: Paychex has demonstrated and expects to continue realizing higher revenue per client through strategic price adjustments across its services. This "price realization" is consistently cited as a factor in the growth of its Management Solutions revenue.
- Interest on Funds Held for Clients: Revenue from interest on funds held for clients is a notable contributor to Paychex's overall revenue. While sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, the company has provided guidance for this segment to be in the range of $190 million to $200 million for fiscal year 2026, indicating its ongoing importance as a revenue driver.
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Share Repurchases
- Paychex's Board of Directors authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program in January 2026, replacing a previous $400 million authorization from 2024.
- In fiscal year 2025, Paychex returned over $1.5 billion to shareholders through a combination of cash dividends and share repurchases.
- Over the six months leading up to February 2026, Paychex allocated $287 million for share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In April 2025, Paychex completed the acquisition of Paycor for approximately $4.1 billion. This acquisition was aimed at enhancing the company's capabilities for serving clients with 100 employees and above.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in the last 12 months, leading up to a December 2025 update, were approximately $227.20 million.
- Annual capital expenditures were -$168.9 million in fiscal year 2025, -$148.8 million in fiscal year 2024, -$133.8 million in fiscal year 2023, -$124.7 million in fiscal year 2022, and -$96.8 million in fiscal year 2021.
- The company's capital allocation strategy prioritizes investment in the business, which includes capital expenditures, followed by dividends and share buybacks.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | INTU | Intuit | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.4% | 2.4% | -10.2% |
| 02062026 | PAYX | Paychex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -11.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 118.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.1 |
| Rev LTM | 5,522 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,402 |
| FCF LTM | 1,200 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,071 |
| CFO LTM | 1,451 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,274 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.1 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 20.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -24.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -32.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -37.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -21.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -52.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -87.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $92.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 33.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $98.75 | $120.50 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.3% | -23.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.4% | 26.3% |
| Downside Capture | 96.27 | 73.90 |
| Upside Capture | 7.41 | 20.32 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.9% | 42.4% |
PAYX Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| Up Beta | 0.19 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.02 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Down Beta | 1.32 | 1.47 | 1.10 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | 73% | 9% | 13% | -20% | 18% | 22% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 28 | 52 | 118 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 178% | 167% | 122% | 93% | 89% | 88% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 32 | 71 | 132 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAYX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | -35.2% | 26.3% | -1.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 22.3% | 19.1% | 0.93 | 42.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 18.9% | 0.64 | 42.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.0% | 1.45 | -7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.83 | 3.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 54.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.9% | 44.2% | -0.35 | 17.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAYX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | 1.8% | 23.2% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 59.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 59.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 57.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 22.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PAYX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | 9.0% | 24.9% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 19.8% | 0.60 | 68.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 69.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 0.70 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 19.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 63.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 15.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/19/2025 | -1.7% | -0.0% | -5.2% |
| 9/30/2025 | -1.4% | -3.2% | -3.5% |
| 6/25/2025 | -9.4% | -3.2% | -2.1% |
| 3/26/2025 | 4.2% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| 12/19/2024 | 1.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
| 10/1/2024 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -0.8% |
| 4/2/2024 | 0.4% | 1.8% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.5% | -2.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -7.9% | -10.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 11/30/2025 | 12/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 07/11/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 04/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 07/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 07/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/31/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simmons, Christopher C | VP, Controller & Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 140.98 | 1,843 | 259,826 | 806,829 | Form |
| 2 | Schrader, Robert L | Sr. VP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 140.63 | 3,160 | 444,391 | 2,711,487 | Form |
| 3 | Gibson, John B | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 141.92 | 12,370 | 1,755,550 | 11,602,670 | Form |
| 4 | Mucci, Martin | Direct | Sell | 7112025 | 145.17 | 97,526 | 14,157,849 | 64,878,989 | Form | |
| 5 | Velli, Joseph M | Direct | Sell | 4162025 | 149.25 | 3,650 | 544,762 | 11,709,409 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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