Paycom Software (PAYC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $166.56 | Market Cap: $9.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Paycom Software (PAYC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $166.56Market Cap: $9.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% | Key risksPAYC key risks include [1] intense competition and a potentially saturated market that could pressure growth and pricing power and [2] significant data security vulnerabilities, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Process / Warehouse Automation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% |
| Key risksPAYC key risks include [1] intense competition and a potentially saturated market that could pressure growth and pricing power and [2] significant data security vulnerabilities, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PAYC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for Paycom Software (PAYC) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, lies entirely in the future. As such, historical data for stock movement and the specific reasons for a -26.3% decline during this future period are not yet available. However, based on available information up to December 2025, here are some key points about PAYC's performance and related news: **1. Q3 2025 Earnings and Outlook:** Paycom Software reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with total revenues of $493 million, up 9.1% year-over-year, and recurring and other revenues up 10.6% year-over-year. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $2.045 billion to $2.055 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also maintained at $872 million to $882 million, with an expected margin expansion to approximately 43% at the midpoint. **2. Automation and AI-driven Platform "IWant":** Paycom has been emphasizing its strategic focus on maximizing automation in its software. The company fully rolled out its AI-powered command-driven product, "IWant," across its client base in 2025. This platform has reportedly responded to millions of queries from employees, managers, and executives, enhancing engagement with HR and payroll data. **3. Stock Price Fluctuations in Late 2025:** As of mid-December 2025, PAYC's stock has shown some volatility. For example, on December 16, 2025, the closing price was $162.77. In the period leading up to December 5, 2025, the stock was down 8.67% over the past 30 days and down 28.31% over the past 12 months. **4. Share Buybacks and Dividends:** Paycom has been actively returning capital to shareholders. As of October 31, 2025, the company had approximately $1.1 billion remaining under its buyback authorization. In the third quarter of 2025, Paycom repurchased 4.1 million shares of common stock for $86 million and paid approximately $213 million in dividends. The board approved a quarterly dividend of 37.5 cents per share, payable in mid-December. **5. Analyst and Market Sentiment (Predictions):** While not actual historical movement for the specified future period, some forecasts and analyses from late 2025 project future trends. For instance, some short-term forecasts predict Paycom Software could reach $170.60 on December 20, 2025, representing 5.33% growth from its then-current price. Longer-term forecasts for 2025 anticipate PAYC stock to trade between $162.74 and $173.11, with an average annualized price of $169.45. However, other analyses indicated a "Strong Sell" outlook in the mid-term due to negative signals and a falling trend around December 17, 2025.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAYC Return | 71% | -8% | -25% | -33% | -0% | -20% | -37% |
| Peers Return | 38% | 24% | -22% | 12% | 14% | -14% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAYC Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 57% | 42% | 53% | 65% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAYC Max Drawdown | -38% | -32% | -37% | -51% | -32% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -14% | -37% | -13% | -15% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, PAYX, PCTY, DAY, WDAY. See PAYC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAYC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 267.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 185 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 120 days |
Compare to ACN, ADP, PAYX, CTSH, PCTY
In The Past
Paycom Software's stock fell -72.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -72.8% loss requires a 267.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAYC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | PAYC | Paycom Software | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.6% | 0.6% | -1.6% |
| 09302024 | PAYC | Paycom Software | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.6% | 25.8% | -4.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | PAYC | Paycom Software | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.6% | 0.6% | -1.6% |
| 09302024 | PAYC | Paycom Software | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.6% | 25.8% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Paycom Software
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 158.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,786 |
| Op Inc LTM | 713 |
| FCF LTM | 1,050 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,000 |
| CFO LTM | 1,272 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,189 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 20.0 |
| P/E | 28.2 |
| P/CFO | 23.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -10.7% | -8.7% | -10.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | 4.5% | -0.8% | 0.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 9.0% | 12.5% | 16.4% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 21.4% | 34.2% | 34.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | 0.4% | -8.4% | -1.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -10.5% | -7.5% | -21.8% |
| 2/7/2024 | -1.6% | -4.9% | -8.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 7 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 17 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 10.0% | 6.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -7.5% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 21.4% | 34.2% | 34.9% |
| Max Negative | -38.5% | -31.5% | -25.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |