Tearsheet

Paycom Software (PAYC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $166.56 | Market Cap: $9.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Paycom Software (PAYC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $166.56
Market Cap: $9.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116%
Key risks
PAYC key risks include [1] intense competition and a potentially saturated market that could pressure growth and pricing power and [2] significant data security vulnerabilities, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Process / Warehouse Automation.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Process / Warehouse Automation.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116%
5 Key risks
PAYC key risks include [1] intense competition and a potentially saturated market that could pressure growth and pricing power and [2] significant data security vulnerabilities, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PAYC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for Paycom Software (PAYC) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, lies entirely in the future. As such, historical data for stock movement and the specific reasons for a -26.3% decline during this future period are not yet available. However, based on available information up to December 2025, here are some key points about PAYC's performance and related news: **1. Q3 2025 Earnings and Outlook:** Paycom Software reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with total revenues of $493 million, up 9.1% year-over-year, and recurring and other revenues up 10.6% year-over-year. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $2.045 billion to $2.055 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also maintained at $872 million to $882 million, with an expected margin expansion to approximately 43% at the midpoint. **2. Automation and AI-driven Platform "IWant":** Paycom has been emphasizing its strategic focus on maximizing automation in its software. The company fully rolled out its AI-powered command-driven product, "IWant," across its client base in 2025. This platform has reportedly responded to millions of queries from employees, managers, and executives, enhancing engagement with HR and payroll data. **3. Stock Price Fluctuations in Late 2025:** As of mid-December 2025, PAYC's stock has shown some volatility. For example, on December 16, 2025, the closing price was $162.77. In the period leading up to December 5, 2025, the stock was down 8.67% over the past 30 days and down 28.31% over the past 12 months. **4. Share Buybacks and Dividends:** Paycom has been actively returning capital to shareholders. As of October 31, 2025, the company had approximately $1.1 billion remaining under its buyback authorization. In the third quarter of 2025, Paycom repurchased 4.1 million shares of common stock for $86 million and paid approximately $213 million in dividends. The board approved a quarterly dividend of 37.5 cents per share, payable in mid-December. **5. Analyst and Market Sentiment (Predictions):** While not actual historical movement for the specified future period, some forecasts and analyses from late 2025 project future trends. For instance, some short-term forecasts predict Paycom Software could reach $170.60 on December 20, 2025, representing 5.33% growth from its then-current price. Longer-term forecasts for 2025 anticipate PAYC stock to trade between $162.74 and $173.11, with an average annualized price of $169.45. However, other analyses indicated a "Strong Sell" outlook in the mid-term due to negative signals and a falling trend around December 17, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAYC Return71%-8%-25%-33%-0%-20%-37%
Peers Return38%24%-22%12%14%-14%48%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAYC Win Rate75%50%50%42%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate70%57%42%53%65%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAYC Max Drawdown-38%-32%-37%-51%-32%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-14%-37%-13%-15%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, PAYX, PCTY, DAY, WDAY. See PAYC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPAYCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven267.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven185 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven44 days120 days

Compare to ACN, ADP, PAYX, CTSH, PCTY


In The Past

Paycom Software's stock fell -72.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -72.8% loss requires a 267.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Paycom Software (PAYC)

Better Bets than Paycom Software (PAYC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAYC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
PAYC_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025PAYCPaycom SoftwareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.6%0.6%-1.6%
PAYC_9302024_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302024PAYCPaycom SoftwareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
31.6%25.8%-4.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
PAYC_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025PAYCPaycom SoftwareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.6%0.6%-1.6%
PAYC_9302024_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302024PAYCPaycom SoftwareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
31.6%25.8%-4.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Paycom Software

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PAYCADPPAYXPCTYDAYWDAYMedian
NamePaycom S.Automati.Paychex PaylocityDayforce Workday  
Mkt Price166.97265.47116.70150.8669.22216.00158.92
Mkt Cap9.4107.542.18.411.164.026.6
Rev LTM2,00120,9035,5721,6401,8939,2313,786
Op Inc LTM5585,4722,208314132868713
FCF LTM3904,2101,7093361662,5851,050
FCF 3Y Avg3313,8461,6703101332,0901,000
CFO LTM6434,7581,9014132742,7731,272
CFO 3Y Avg5434,4101,8353852452,3221,189

Growth & Margins

PAYCADPPAYXPCTYDAYWDAYMedian
NamePaycom S.Automati.Paychex PaylocityDayforce Workday  
Rev Chg LTM9.7%7.1%5.6%13.3%11.7%13.2%10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.0%7.4%6.5%21.4%16.7%15.8%15.9%
Rev Chg Q9.2%7.1%10.2%12.5%9.5%12.6%9.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%1.7%2.4%2.8%2.2%3.0%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM27.9%26.2%39.6%19.1%7.0%9.4%22.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg29.3%25.8%40.5%18.0%6.8%5.1%21.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.1%-1.9%0.1%0.4%0.8%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM32.1%22.8%34.1%25.2%14.5%30.0%27.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg29.8%22.5%34.7%26.8%14.5%28.4%27.6%
FCF/Rev LTM19.5%20.1%30.7%20.5%8.8%28.0%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.2%19.6%31.6%21.5%7.7%25.5%20.5%

Valuation

PAYCADPPAYXPCTYDAYWDAYMedian
NamePaycom S.Automati.Paychex PaylocityDayforce Workday  
Mkt Cap9.4107.542.18.411.164.026.6
P/S5.85.78.25.45.86.95.8
P/EBIT19.020.420.028.2-168.1-20.0
P/E25.828.727.639.3-73.599.728.2
P/CFO18.225.024.021.440.123.123.6
Total Yield4.6%5.5%6.8%2.5%-1.4%1.0%3.6%
Dividend Yield0.7%2.1%3.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%3.5%3.7%3.3%1.3%-3.3%
D/E0.00.10.10.00.1-0.1
Net D/E-0.00.00.1-0.00.1-0.0

Returns

PAYCADPPAYXPCTYDAYWDAYMedian
NamePaycom S.Automati.Paychex PaylocityDayforce Workday  
1M Rtn1.8%6.5%5.6%3.8%0.6%-4.0%2.8%
3M Rtn-22.1%-7.5%-11.0%-8.8%1.2%-8.0%-8.4%
6M Rtn-28.0%-12.5%-21.0%-14.5%23.1%-8.8%-13.5%
12M Rtn-27.8%-8.2%-14.2%-25.7%-10.6%-22.3%-18.3%
3Y Rtn-45.3%14.8%10.2%-24.4%8.3%23.3%9.3%
1M Excs Rtn1.0%5.8%4.9%3.1%-0.2%-4.7%2.0%
3M Excs Rtn-24.1%-9.5%-11.5%-9.9%-1.0%-8.8%-9.7%
6M Excs Rtn-40.4%-24.8%-33.4%-26.9%10.7%-21.2%-25.9%
12M Excs Rtn-39.4%-19.6%-25.7%-35.7%-21.4%-32.2%-28.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-116.2%-61.2%-64.5%-96.8%-65.8%-43.4%-65.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Cloud-based HCM solution delivered as Software-as-a-Service1,6941,375  738
Implementation and other  1916 
Recurring  1,037826 
Total1,6941,3751,056841738


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,550,810
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520259.2%
Average Daily Volume727,313
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.51
Basic Shares Quantity56,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-10.7%-8.7%-10.5%
8/6/20254.5%-0.8%0.5%
5/7/20259.0%12.5%16.4%
2/12/20252.4%3.5%0.6%
10/30/202421.4%34.2%34.9%
7/31/20240.4%-8.4%-1.7%
5/1/2024-10.5%-7.5%-21.8%
2/7/2024-1.6%-4.9%-8.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12711
# Negative121713
Median Positive7.4%10.0%6.9%
Median Negative-7.5%-7.5%-10.5%
Max Positive21.4%34.2%34.9%
Max Negative-38.5%-31.5%-25.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021