NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $181.93 | Market Cap: $4.4 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $181.93Market Cap: $4.4 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NVDA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Record Q3 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Surpass Expectations: NVIDIA announced record revenue of $57.0 billion for the third quarter ended October 26, 2025, marking a 22% increase from the previous quarter and 62% from a year ago, exceeding analyst forecasts. The company also reported earnings per diluted share of $1.30, which beat estimates.
2. Exceptional Growth in Data Center Segment: The data center division achieved record revenue of $51.2 billion, representing a 25% increase quarter-over-quarter and 66% year-over-year. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted robust demand for Blackwell GPUs and accelerating compute demand for AI, describing it as entering a "virtuous cycle of AI."
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NVDA Return | 122% | 125% | -50% | 239% | 171% | 35% | 2998% |
| Peers Return | 38% | 61% | -53% | 62% | 4% | 147% | 337% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NVDA Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 75% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 55% | 37% | 60% | 52% | 74% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NVDA Max Drawdown | -16% | -11% | -62% | -2% | -4% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -11% | -59% | -10% | -15% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMD, MU, STX, WDC, AMBA. See NVDA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NVDA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 570.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2731 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMD, MU, STX, WDC, AMBA
In The Past
NVIDIA's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NVDA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 189.5% | 239.0% | -2.4% |
| 06302022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.6% | 179.3% | -25.9% |
| 12312018 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.7% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 189.5% | 239.0% | -2.4% |
| 06302022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.6% | 179.3% | -25.9% |
| 12312018 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.7% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NVIDIA
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute & Networking | 47,405 | 15,068 | 11,046 | 6,841 | 3,279 |
| Graphics | 13,517 | 11,906 | 15,868 | 9,834 | 7,639 |
| All Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 60,922 | 26,974 | 26,914 | 16,675 | 10,918 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute & Networking | 32,016 | 5,083 | 4,598 | 2,548 | 751 |
| Graphics | 5,846 | 4,552 | 8,492 | 4,612 | 3,267 |
| All Other | -4,890 | -5,411 | -3,049 | -2,628 | -1,172 |
| Total | 32,972 | 4,224 | 10,041 | 4,532 | 2,846 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2262025 | 10-K 1/26/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11202024 | 10-Q 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8282024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5292024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2212024 | 10-K 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8282023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2242023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11182022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8312022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3182022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11222021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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