Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.34, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -189 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1261%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -60%
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 284%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 242%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -70%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -989%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -990%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -48%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 106%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -60%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.34, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -189 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1261%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 284%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 242%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -70%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -989%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -990%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -48%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 106%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ZBIO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

During the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO) experienced a significant stock movement, which included a substantial increase. Key factors contributing to this upward trend of over 129% include positive clinical trial results, strong analyst endorsements, strategic pipeline expansion, and significant funding agreements.

1. Positive Phase 2 MoonStone Trial Results for Obexelimab
Zenas BioPharma announced positive results from its Phase 2 MoonStone trial for obexelimab in relapsing multiple sclerosis around November 2025. The experimental drug achieved its primary endpoint, demonstrating a 95% relative reduction in new gadolinium-enhancing T1 lesions compared to placebo, a significant statistical outcome that boosted investor confidence.

2. Significant Analyst Price Target Increases and Strong Ratings
Following the encouraging clinical data, several financial firms, including H.C. Wainwright, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies, raised their price targets for Zenas BioPharma. These firms maintained "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings for ZBIO, with Jefferies setting a high estimate of $52, reflecting strong analyst confidence in the company's prospects.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ZBIO Return-----321%321%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ZBIO Win Rate----33%70% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ZBIO Max Drawdown------21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

ZBIO has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO)

Better Bets than Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ZBIO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Zenas BioPharma

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ZBIOVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameZenas Bi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price36.67463.132.541.0711.0721.2216.14
Mkt Cap1.5118.4----60.0
Rev LTM1511,7230-01010
Op Inc LTM-189-92-5--93-70-92
FCF LTM-1483,337-6--60-64-60
FCF 3Y Avg-2,064-10---1,027
CFO LTM-1483,718-6--60-64-60
CFO 3Y Avg-2,419-10---1,204

Growth & Margins

ZBIOVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameZenas Bi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-70.0%10.3%-----29.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%2.7%----1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-1,260.7%-0.8%----700.7%-700.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-103.1%1.0%-----51.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-989.4%31.7%----635.6%-635.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-990.0%28.5%----636.5%-636.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

ZBIOVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameZenas Bi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap1.5118.4----60.0
P/S27.08.5----17.8
P/EBIT-2.122.4----10.1
P/E-2.327.2----12.5
P/CFO-2.726.9----12.1
Total Yield-43.6%3.7%-----20.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.3%----2.3%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.7-0.0-----0.4

Returns

ZBIOVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameZenas Bi.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn17.0%8.7%---9.9%-8.7%
3M Rtn113.9%16.8%--12.5%-16.8%
6M Rtn284.0%3.9%----143.9%
12M Rtn241.8%1.3%----121.6%
3Y Rtn-44.1%----44.1%
1M Excs Rtn17.1%8.7%---9.9%-8.7%
3M Excs Rtn110.6%11.3%--4.5%-11.3%
6M Excs Rtn269.3%-10.8%----129.2%
12M Excs Rtn205.0%-14.6%----95.2%
3Y Excs Rtn--25.9%-----25.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,607,781
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.3%
Average Daily Volume373,343
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.34
Basic Shares Quantity41,865,400
Short % of Basic Shares11.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024311202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
33120246262024DRS/A 3/31/2024
123120239132024424B4 12/31/2023
93020231252024DRS 9/30/2023