Pediatrix Medical (MD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.48 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services
Pediatrix Medical (MD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.48Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -17% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Specialized Healthcare Delivery. Themes include Neonatal & Pediatric Intensive Care, Maternal-Fetal Medicine, and Pediatric Subspecialty Services. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Specialized Healthcare Delivery. Themes include Neonatal & Pediatric Intensive Care, Maternal-Fetal Medicine, and Pediatric Subspecialty Services. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -17% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Pediatrix Medical Group (MD) experienced significant stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, with several key factors contributing to its performance.
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Pediatrix Medical Group reported impressive third-quarter 2025 financial results that surpassed analyst expectations. The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.67, significantly higher than the anticipated $0.47, and reported revenues of $493 million, exceeding the forecasted $477.7 million.
2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: Following the strong quarterly results, Pediatrix raised its full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook multiple times. Initially, the outlook was raised from a previous range of $220 million to $240 million to a new range of $245 million to $255 million after Q2 results. After Q3 results, the company further increased its adjusted EBITDA forecast for the full year 2025 to a range of $270 million to $290 million, with the midpoint well above Wall Street's estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MD Return | -12% | 11% | -45% | -37% | 41% | 81% | -14% |
| Peers Return | 115% | 40% | -18% | 3% | -11% | -35% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MD Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 48% | 40% | 45% | 45% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MD Max Drawdown | -72% | -15% | -47% | -44% | -27% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -25% | -35% | -20% | -31% | -46% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADUS, USPH, CCRN, SLP, OMI. See MD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 319.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 252.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 315 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 249.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 194.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 893 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ADUS, USPH, CCRN, SLP, OMI
In The Past
Pediatrix Medical's stock fell -76.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/30/2021. A -76.2% loss requires a 319.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Pediatrix Medical Stock Shares Rally 40% In A Month, Should You Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Pediatrix Medical Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Pediatrix Medical (MD) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pediatrix Medical (MD) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pediatrix Medical (MD) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pediatrix Medical (MD) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pediatrix Medical (MD) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pediatrix Medical (MD) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pediatrix Medical (MD) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| MD Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is Pediatrix Medical Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | November 4th, 2025 | ||
| Buy or Sell Pediatrix Medical Stock? | November 4th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Next For Mednax Stock After The Recent 20% Rally? | July 1st, 2021 | ||
| What’s Next For Mednax Stock After The Recent 20% Rally? | May 17th, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 02292020 | MD | Pediatrix Medical | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 42.9% | -53.8% |
| 10312018 | MD | Pediatrix Medical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.6% | -46.8% | -50.1% |
| 04302018 | MD | Pediatrix Medical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -39.1% | -44.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 02292020 | MD | Pediatrix Medical | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 42.9% | -53.8% |
| 10312018 | MD | Pediatrix Medical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.6% | -46.8% | -50.1% |
| 04302018 | MD | Pediatrix Medical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -39.1% | -44.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pediatrix Medical
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,270 |
| Op Inc LTM | 99 |
| FCF LTM | 45 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 86 |
| CFO LTM | 56 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 145 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.1 |
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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