Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 65%, Dividend Yield is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 61%, FCF Yield is 96%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -62%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 140%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 3/12/2025.
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 65%, Dividend Yield is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 61%, FCF Yield is 96%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 140%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -62%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70%
9 Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 3/12/2025.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

XP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period leading up to December 4, 2025, XP Inc. (XP) experienced a positive stock movement, with a reported rise of approximately 5.20% over the last month. This upward trend was primarily driven by several key factors: **1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.** XP Inc. reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with total client assets increasing by 12% year-over-year to R$1.425 trillion and gross revenue growing by 9% year-over-year to R$4.942 billion.

**2. Significant Increase in Profitability.** The company demonstrated enhanced profitability, with net income rising by 12% year-over-year to R$1.33 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) climbing by 13% year-over-year to R$2.47.

**3. Shareholder Capital Allocation Initiatives.** XP Inc. announced several capital actions designed to return value to shareholders, including a cash dividend of US$0.18 per Class A share, the retirement of approximately 2.1% of Class A treasury shares, and the authorization of a new share repurchase program up to R$1.0 billion.

**4. Robust Growth in Diversified Business Segments.** The company saw substantial growth in its Corporate & Issuer Services segment, which expanded by 32% year-over-year, and its loan portfolio, which grew by 33% year-over-year to R$67 billion, indicating successful diversification beyond its core investment offerings.

**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment.** Market analysts expressed a favorable outlook for XP Inc., with expectations for further rallies in the stock price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
XP Return3%-28%-47%80%-52%69%-42%
Peers Return-1%0%0%0%0%-19%-19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XP Win Rate58%58%17%58%17%70% 
Peers Win Rate2%0%0%0%0%22% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XP Max Drawdown-56%-30%-51%-31%-53%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-1%0%0%0%0%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventXPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven380.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven85 days148 days

Compare to ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE


In The Past

XP's stock fell -79.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/2/2021. A -79.2% loss requires a 380.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About XP (XP)

Better Bets than XP (XP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Fundamental Metrics: ... 
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Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to XP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for XP

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XPABTCFIGRGEMIMIAXSTKEMedian
NameXP American.Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In.Sol Stra. 
Mkt Price19.232.3935.3810.7644.732.6515.00
Mkt Cap10.2-----10.2
Rev LTM7,297---1,255211,255
Op Inc LTM-4,498---5811
FCF LTM10,246---7-857
FCF 3Y Avg7,298---15-2915
CFO LTM10,632---49-949
CFO 3Y Avg7,582---48-348

Growth & Margins

XPABTCFIGRGEMIMIAXSTKEMedian
NameXP American.Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In.Sol Stra. 
Rev Chg LTM0.3%---19.6%1,558.9%19.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.5%---16.7%332.7%16.7%
Rev Chg Q-7.9%---22.9%311.8%22.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.1%---5.1%21.4%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM-61.6%---4.7%6.2%4.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-58.4%---1.3%--28.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-7.4%---2.9%-34.5%-7.4%
CFO/Rev LTM145.7%---3.9%-41.1%3.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg110.7%---4.1%-57.4%
FCF/Rev LTM140.4%---0.5%-404.8%0.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg106.7%---1.1%-53.9%

Valuation

XPABTCFIGRGEMIMIAXSTKEMedian
NameXP American.Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In.Sol Stra. 
Mkt Cap10.2-----10.2
P/S1.5-----1.5
P/EBIT1.8-----1.8
P/E2.2-----2.2
P/CFO1.0-----1.0
Total Yield65.2%-----65.2%
Dividend Yield19.1%-----19.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg67.5%-----67.5%
D/E7.0-----7.0
Net D/E-0.2------0.2

Returns

XPABTCFIGRGEMIMIAXSTKEMedian
NameXP American.Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In.Sol Stra. 
1M Rtn4.8%-51.4%-15.4%-39.5%-1.8%-14.8%-15.1%
3M Rtn8.0%-70.3%-93.3%-26.4%--31.2%
6M Rtn-1.8%--93.3%----47.6%
12M Rtn50.6%--93.3%----21.4%
3Y Rtn16.3%--93.3%----38.5%
1M Excs Rtn4.8%-51.4%-15.4%-39.5%-1.7%-14.8%-15.1%
3M Excs Rtn2.1%-68.1%-98.7%-20.7%--33.0%
6M Excs Rtn-16.5%--108.0%----62.3%
12M Excs Rtn35.7%--106.9%----35.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-39.2%--166.1%----102.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage commission1,9922,1032,4652,1401,288
Securities placement1,9791,6311,9171,4301,155
Management fees1,6281,5811,4901,2241,035
Commissions Fees79056419391 
Other services589476603387275
Insurance brokerage fee175153133113106
Sales taxes and contributions on services-622-568-605-486-362
Educational services   11898
Total6,5325,9406,1965,0163,596


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,792,181
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.5%
Average Daily Volume6,766,985
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.92
Basic Shares Quantity527,883,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202581920256-K 6/30/2025
331202552120256-K 3/31/2025
12312024424202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111920246-K 9/30/2024
630202481420246-K 6/30/2024
331202452120246-K 3/31/2024
12312023426202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111320236-K 9/30/2023
630202381520236-K 6/30/2023
331202351620236-K 3/31/2023
12312022427202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110920226-K 9/30/2022
630202281020226-K 6/30/2022
331202250420226-K 3/31/2022
12312021413202220-F 12/31/2021
9302021110420216-K 9/30/2021