XP (XP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.825 | Market Cap: $10.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
XP (XP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.825Market Cap: $10.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 65%, Dividend Yield is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 61%, FCF Yield is 96% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -62% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 140%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 3/12/2025. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 65%, Dividend Yield is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 61%, FCF Yield is 96% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 146%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 140%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -62% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 3/12/2025. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
XP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period leading up to December 4, 2025, XP Inc. (XP) experienced a positive stock movement, with a reported rise of approximately 5.20% over the last month. This upward trend was primarily driven by several key factors:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.** XP Inc. reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with total client assets increasing by 12% year-over-year to R$1.425 trillion and gross revenue growing by 9% year-over-year to R$4.942 billion.
**2. Significant Increase in Profitability.** The company demonstrated enhanced profitability, with net income rising by 12% year-over-year to R$1.33 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) climbing by 13% year-over-year to R$2.47.
**3. Shareholder Capital Allocation Initiatives.** XP Inc. announced several capital actions designed to return value to shareholders, including a cash dividend of US$0.18 per Class A share, the retirement of approximately 2.1% of Class A treasury shares, and the authorization of a new share repurchase program up to R$1.0 billion.
**4. Robust Growth in Diversified Business Segments.** The company saw substantial growth in its Corporate & Issuer Services segment, which expanded by 32% year-over-year, and its loan portfolio, which grew by 33% year-over-year to R$67 billion, indicating successful diversification beyond its core investment offerings.
**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment.** Market analysts expressed a favorable outlook for XP Inc., with expectations for further rallies in the stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XP Return | 3% | -28% | -47% | 80% | -52% | 69% | -42% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XP Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 17% | 58% | 17% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XP Max Drawdown | -56% | -30% | -51% | -31% | -53% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 380.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 148 days |
Compare to ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE
In The Past
XP's stock fell -79.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/2/2021. A -79.2% loss requires a 380.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to XP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for XP
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,255 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1 |
| FCF LTM | 7 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 15 |
| CFO LTM | 49 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 48 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -28.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -7.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 57.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 53.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 1.8 |
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/CFO | 1.0 |
| Total Yield | 65.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 19.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 67.5% |
| D/E | 7.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -31.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -47.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -38.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -33.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -62.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -102.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brokerage commission | 1,992 | 2,103 | 2,465 | 2,140 | 1,288 |
| Securities placement | 1,979 | 1,631 | 1,917 | 1,430 | 1,155 |
| Management fees | 1,628 | 1,581 | 1,490 | 1,224 | 1,035 |
| Commissions Fees | 790 | 564 | 193 | 91 | |
| Other services | 589 | 476 | 603 | 387 | 275 |
| Insurance brokerage fee | 175 | 153 | 133 | 113 | 106 |
| Sales taxes and contributions on services | -622 | -568 | -605 | -486 | -362 |
| Educational services | 118 | 98 | |||
| Total | 6,532 | 5,940 | 6,196 | 5,016 | 3,596 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8192025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5212025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4242025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5212024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4262024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4272023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4132022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |