Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 72%, Dividend Yield is 21%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.6 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -62%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 245%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 239%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 18 Bil
  Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 3/12/2025.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  Key risks
XP key risks include [1] its heavy concentration in Brazil's volatile macroeconomic and political landscape, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 72%, Dividend Yield is 21%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 245%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 239%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 18 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.6 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -62%
6 Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 3/12/2025.
7 Key risks
XP key risks include [1] its heavy concentration in Brazil's volatile macroeconomic and political landscape, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

XP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points regarding XP Inc. (XP) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: XP Inc. reported its third-quarter financial results around November 17, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations with record net income and increased revenue. Adjusted earnings per share were R$2.47, surpassing the projected R$2.42, and revenue reached R$4.94 billion against an anticipated R$4.64 billion. This represented a 9% year-over-year increase, significantly boosted by Corporate & Issuer Services, which grew 32% year-over-year.

2. Dividend Declaration: On November 17, 2025, XP Inc.'s board of directors approved a cash dividend of $0.18 per Class A common share. This dividend was payable on December 18, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 10, 2025, contributing to a dividend yield of 3.48%.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
XP Return3%-28%-47%80%-52%41%-52%
Peers Return-35%48%8%55%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XP Win Rate58%58%17%58%17%67% 
Peers Win Rate50%58%50%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XP Max Drawdown-56%-30%-51%-31%-53%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-18%-24%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NU, PAGS, STNE, SCHW, IBKR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventXPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven380.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven85 days148 days

Compare to ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE


In The Past

XP's stock fell -79.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/2/2021. A -79.2% loss requires a 380.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About XP (XP)

Better Bets than XP (XP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Fundamental Metrics: ... 
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to XP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for XP

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XPNUPAGSSTNESCHWIBKRMedian
NameXP Nu PagSegur.StoneCo Charles .Interact. 
Mkt Price15.7515.869.3414.4096.6162.4515.80
Mkt Cap9.977.52.93.8174.527.818.9
Rev LTM7,4479,60019,52114,53322,9149,90412,219
Op Inc LTM-4,649-7,0656,979-8,4677,022
FCF LTM17,8233,6662,803-1,537-1,39715,9803,235
FCF 3Y Avg11,4181,968600-1,7279,4379,0935,531
CFO LTM18,2494,0405,034-334-75316,0404,537
CFO 3Y Avg11,7512,1882,726-55510,0759,1475,936

Growth & Margins

XPNUPAGSSTNESCHWIBKRMedian
NameXP Nu PagSegur.StoneCo Charles .Interact. 
Rev Chg LTM0.7%22.3%10.9%23.5%22.3%10.1%16.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.2%62.1%10.6%21.3%5.4%48.1%16.0%
Rev Chg Q7.7%30.2%4.5%16.0%26.6%12.9%14.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%7.1%1.1%3.3%6.0%3.2%3.3%
Op Mgn LTM-62.4%-36.2%48.0%-85.5%42.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-57.6%-34.5%48.3%-84.1%41.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%-1.6%0.4%-1.6%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM245.1%42.1%25.8%-2.3%-3.3%162.0%33.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg163.0%21.7%15.6%-4.0%54.3%98.3%38.0%
FCF/Rev LTM239.3%38.2%14.4%-10.6%-6.1%161.3%26.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg158.3%18.7%3.4%-13.5%51.2%97.6%34.9%

Valuation

XPNUPAGSSTNESCHWIBKRMedian
NameXP Nu PagSegur.StoneCo Charles .Interact. 
Mkt Cap9.977.52.93.8174.527.818.9
P/S1.38.10.10.37.53.12.2
P/EBIT---4.8-3.54.2
P/E2.030.61.3-4.620.933.411.4
P/CFO0.519.20.6-15.0-229.01.90.6
Total Yield71.7%3.3%82.6%-22.0%4.8%3.4%4.1%
Dividend Yield20.6%0.0%6.7%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg----46.6%7.9%45.0%7.9%
D/E---3.20.20.00.2
Net D/E---1.7-0.4-0.1-0.1

Returns

XPNUPAGSSTNESCHWIBKRMedian
NameXP Nu PagSegur.StoneCo Charles .Interact. 
1M Rtn-12.1%1.7%-0.3%-10.8%5.1%-1.4%-0.9%
3M Rtn-20.3%-0.6%-11.1%-24.3%5.2%0.3%-5.9%
6M Rtn-19.9%29.6%3.7%-3.1%8.1%19.0%5.9%
12M Rtn22.5%35.6%44.0%65.3%27.4%40.4%38.0%
3Y Rtn26.3%306.7%26.6%60.2%29.1%265.4%44.6%
1M Excs Rtn-12.8%0.9%-1.1%-11.6%4.4%-2.1%-1.6%
3M Excs Rtn-22.2%-2.2%-12.4%-26.3%2.5%-5.0%-8.7%
6M Excs Rtn-32.2%17.2%-8.6%-15.5%-4.3%6.6%-6.5%
12M Excs Rtn10.0%21.8%27.2%48.6%11.9%28.8%24.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.1%226.1%-57.6%-16.9%-42.7%173.7%-29.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage commission1,9922,1032,4652,1401,288
Securities placement1,9791,6311,9171,4301,155
Management fees1,6281,5811,4901,2241,035
Commissions Fees79056419391 
Other services589476532387275
Insurance brokerage fee175153133113106
Sales taxes and contributions on services-622-568-605-486-362
Educational services  7111898
Total6,5325,9406,1965,0163,596


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity21,556,569
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.9%
Average Daily Volume8,324,856
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.59
Basic Shares Quantity526,034,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025111720256-K 9/30/2025
630202581920256-K 6/30/2025
331202552120256-K 3/31/2025
12312024424202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111920246-K 9/30/2024
630202481420246-K 6/30/2024
331202452120246-K 3/31/2024
12312023426202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023111320236-K 9/30/2023
630202381520236-K 6/30/2023
331202351620236-K 3/31/2023
12312022427202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110920226-K 9/30/2022
630202281020226-K 6/30/2022
331202250420226-K 3/31/2022
12312021413202220-F 12/31/2021