Welltower (WELL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $187.8 | Market Cap: $126.3 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Health Care REITs
Welltower (WELL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $187.8Market Cap: $126.3 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Health Care REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 125x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | Key risksWELL key risks include [1] dependence on the financial health of its concentrated tenant and operator base, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 80x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 125x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
| Key risksWELL key risks include [1] dependence on the financial health of its concentrated tenant and operator base, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WELL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Welltower (WELL) experienced significant activity between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, that influenced its stock performance. 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations: Welltower reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 27, 2025, with normalized funds from operations (FFO) attributable to common stockholders of $1.34 per diluted share, an increase of 20.7% over the prior year, surpassing analyst estimates. The company's revenue of $2.69 billion also exceeded expectations. This strong operational profitability was a key driver. 2. Robust Seniors Housing Operating (SHO) Portfolio Growth: The company reported substantial year-over-year same-store net operating income (SSNOI) growth of 14.5% for its total portfolio, significantly driven by its Seniors Housing Operating (SHO) portfolio which saw 20.3% SSNOI growth. This growth was attributed to a 400 basis point increase in average occupancy and a 4.8% growth in Revenue Per Occupied Room (RevPOR). Welltower anticipates continued strong performance in its SHO segment, projecting average blended SSNOI growth of 13.2% to 14.5% for 2025. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WELL Return | -17% | 37% | -21% | 42% | 43% | 54% | 179% |
| Peers Return | -5% | -5% | -4% | 21% | 29% | 26% | 70% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WELL Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 83% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 50% | 53% | 58% | 67% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WELL Max Drawdown | -59% | -7% | -32% | 0% | -4% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -65% | -16% | -18% | -9% | -10% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VTR, OHI, SBRA, NHI, CTRE. See WELL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WELL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 576 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 170.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 722 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 781 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to VTR, MPW, ALX, WELL, OHI
In The Past
Welltower's stock fell -41.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/29/2022. A -41.6% loss requires a 71.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WELL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.7% | -1.7% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | WELL | Welltower | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.8% | 67.0% | -4.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.7% | -1.7% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | WELL | Welltower | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.8% | 67.0% | -4.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Welltower
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 61.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.4 |
| Rev LTM | 948 |
| Op Inc LTM | 492 |
| FCF LTM | 609 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 500 |
| CFO LTM | 613 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 518 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 43.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 44.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 54.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 53.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 54.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 52.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.4 |
| P/S | 10.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 26.9 |
| P/CFO | 18.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 96.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seniors Housing Operating | 4,764 | 4,245 | 3,213 | 3,082 | 3,457 |
| Triple-net | 887 | 932 | 891 | 801 | 973 |
| Outpatient Medical | 750 | 679 | 635 | 720 | 688 |
| Non-segment/Corporate | 237 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Total | 6,638 | 5,861 | 4,742 | 4,606 | 5,121 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seniors Housing Operating | 1,108 | 98 | |||
| Triple-net | 845 | 662 | |||
| Outpatient Medical | 519 | 233 | |||
| Non-segment/Corporate | 219 | -162 | |||
| Total | 2,690 | 831 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seniors Housing Operating | 24,622 | 22,001 | 18,852 | 16,044 | 15,785 |
| Triple-net | 8,394 | 8,619 | 9,710 | 8,547 | 9,435 |
| Outpatient Medical | 7,327 | 6,615 | 6,204 | 6,523 | 7,992 |
| Non-segment/Corporate | 3,669 | 658 | 144 | 1,369 | 170 |
| Total | 44,012 | 37,893 | 34,910 | 32,484 | 33,381 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2025 | -1.6% | -0.2% | 12.5% |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | 2.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| 10/28/2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 7.0% |
| 7/29/2024 | 0.5% | -0.5% | 8.3% |
| 4/29/2024 | -0.5% | 1.0% | 5.7% |
| 1/22/2024 | -1.0% | -2.7% | 3.3% |
| 10/30/2023 | 2.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.0% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 9.1% | 38.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -16.2% | -39.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |