Agree Realty (ADC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $74.46 | Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Retail REITs
Agree Realty (ADC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $74.46Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Retail REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Agree Realty (ADC) stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, cannot be precisely determined and explained with factual past data, as this period lies in the future from the current context. However, based on recent historical information and general market factors that influence Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) like Agree Realty, potential reasons for stock movements of approximately 3.5% can be inferred.
1. Analyst Price Target Adjustments: On December 3, 2025, Barclays raised Agree Realty's price target from $77.00 to $78.00, maintaining an "Equal-Weight" rating. Similarly, Wells Fargo maintained an "Overweight" rating and raised its price target from $81.00 to $83.00 on November 25, 2025. Keybanc also raised its price target from $80.00 to $82.00 on October 24, 2025. Positive adjustments to price targets by multiple analysts can signal increased confidence in the company's future performance, potentially driving the stock up.
2. Debt Financing and Balance Sheet Optimization: In November 2025, Agree Realty announced the closing of an unsecured US$350 million 5.5-year term loan with a fixed interest rate of 4.02%, and an option for total commitments up to US$500 million. This financing initiative enhances the company's funding flexibility and supports future portfolio growth and stability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADC Return | -1% | 11% | 4% | -7% | 17% | 9% | 35% |
| Peers Return | -28% | 57% | -14% | 21% | 19% | -5% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADC Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 78% | 38% | 52% | 68% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADC Max Drawdown | -31% | -6% | -12% | -21% | -12% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -2% | -34% | -14% | -8% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BRX, PECO, MAC, SITC, SPG. See ADC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 880 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2626 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BRX, PECO, MAC, SITC, SPG
In The Past
Agree Realty's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Agree Realty
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| Rev LTM | 869 |
| Op Inc LTM | 260 |
| FCF LTM | 405 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 369 |
| CFO LTM | 410 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 375 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 47.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 47.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 39.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| P/EBIT | 19.6 |
| P/E | 26.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10212025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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