Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
 
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48%
  
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
8 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Agree Realty (ADC) stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, cannot be precisely determined and explained with factual past data, as this period lies in the future from the current context. However, based on recent historical information and general market factors that influence Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) like Agree Realty, potential reasons for stock movements of approximately 3.5% can be inferred.

1. Analyst Price Target Adjustments: On December 3, 2025, Barclays raised Agree Realty's price target from $77.00 to $78.00, maintaining an "Equal-Weight" rating. Similarly, Wells Fargo maintained an "Overweight" rating and raised its price target from $81.00 to $83.00 on November 25, 2025. Keybanc also raised its price target from $80.00 to $82.00 on October 24, 2025. Positive adjustments to price targets by multiple analysts can signal increased confidence in the company's future performance, potentially driving the stock up.

2. Debt Financing and Balance Sheet Optimization: In November 2025, Agree Realty announced the closing of an unsecured US$350 million 5.5-year term loan with a fixed interest rate of 4.02%, and an option for total commitments up to US$500 million. This financing initiative enhances the company's funding flexibility and supports future portfolio growth and stability.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADC Return-1%11%4%-7%17%9%35%
Peers Return-28%57%-14%21%19%-5%32%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADC Win Rate50%67%67%42%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate35%78%38%52%68%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADC Max Drawdown-31%-6%-12%-21%-12%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-2%-34%-14%-8%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BRX, PECO, MAC, SITC, SPG. See ADC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven880 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven110 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven279.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2626 days1480 days

Compare to BRX, PECO, MAC, SITC, SPG


In The Past

Agree Realty's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Agree Realty (ADC)

Better Bets than Agree Realty (ADC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Agree Realty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADCBRXPECOMACSITCSPGMedian
NameAgree Re.Brixmor .Phillips.Macerich SITE Cen.Simon Pr. 
Mkt Price74.4725.3734.8717.447.27182.3030.12
Mkt Cap8.37.84.44.40.459.56.1
Rev LTM6891,3467121,0261386,155869
Op Inc LTM33048119118053,120260
FCF LTM484635201326-33,121405
FCF 3Y Avg4376062083011433,066369
CFO LTM484635336326-34,018410
CFO 3Y Avg4376063133011433,870375

Growth & Margins

ADCBRXPECOMACSITCSPGMedian
NameAgree Re.Brixmor .Phillips.Macerich SITE Cen.Simon Pr. 
Rev Chg LTM14.7%5.7%10.7%16.2%-49.5%4.2%8.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg19.5%3.8%7.9%6.3%-34.9%5.7%6.0%
Rev Chg Q18.7%6.3%10.4%15.0%-55.6%8.2%9.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.4%1.5%2.5%3.3%-19.7%2.0%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM47.9%35.7%26.8%17.5%3.4%50.7%31.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg48.4%36.1%25.6%18.4%9.8%50.4%30.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%0.2%1.2%0.2%-2.0%-0.3%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM70.3%47.2%47.2%31.8%-2.2%65.3%47.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg73.1%47.2%48.1%32.5%39.1%66.1%47.6%
FCF/Rev LTM70.3%47.2%28.2%31.8%-2.2%50.7%39.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg73.1%47.2%32.0%32.5%39.1%52.3%43.1%

Valuation

ADCBRXPECOMACSITCSPGMedian
NameAgree Re.Brixmor .Phillips.Macerich SITE Cen.Simon Pr. 
Mkt Cap8.37.84.44.40.459.56.1
P/S11.56.36.14.53.410.06.2
P/EBIT24.415.421.8469.28.017.319.6
P/E40.825.652.7-11.912.627.326.4
P/CFO16.313.412.814.2-153.915.213.8
Total Yield6.6%8.0%5.5%-4.5%8.0%4.4%6.1%
Dividend Yield4.2%4.1%3.6%4.0%0.0%0.7%3.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.4%8.0%4.8%8.9%4.9%6.4%6.4%
D/E0.40.60.61.10.50.40.6
Net D/E0.40.60.61.10.30.40.5

Returns

ADCBRXPECOMACSITCSPGMedian
NameAgree Re.Brixmor .Phillips.Macerich SITE Cen.Simon Pr. 
1M Rtn2.3%-3.1%3.2%0.6%-0.7%3.2%1.5%
3M Rtn4.7%-8.4%-0.7%-4.7%-8.9%1.4%-2.7%
6M Rtn2.0%3.0%-0.3%11.5%7.6%15.6%5.3%
12M Rtn4.2%-10.8%-7.6%-14.9%-18.6%6.0%-9.2%
3Y Rtn20.4%26.3%19.8%58.8%-8.0%80.2%23.4%
1M Excs Rtn2.4%-3.1%3.3%0.6%-0.7%3.2%1.5%
3M Excs Rtn-0.8%-14.2%-7.7%-10.2%-17.2%-4.9%-8.9%
6M Excs Rtn-12.7%-11.7%-15.0%-3.2%-7.1%0.9%-9.4%
12M Excs Rtn-12.4%-25.5%-22.1%-28.9%-31.8%-9.3%-23.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.9%-44.1%-49.4%-12.3%-76.8%12.9%-46.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of owning, acquiring, developing and managing retail real estate537430339249187
Total537430339249187


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,380,831
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.4%
Average Daily Volume998,228
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.40
Basic Shares Quantity111,277,316
Short % of Basic Shares8.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251021202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024723202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021