Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.13
Key risks
ADC key risks include [1] intense competition for acquisitions, Show more.
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48%
  
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
7 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.13
8 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x
9 Key risks
ADC key risks include [1] intense competition for acquisitions, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate 0.3% movement of Agree Realty (ADC) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Agree Realty reported robust results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 21, 2025, surpassing both FFO and revenue estimates. The company's Net Income per share increased by 7.9% to $0.45, and Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share grew by 7.2% to $1.10. Additionally, the company raised its full-year 2025 investment guidance to a range of $1.50 billion to $1.65 billion and increased its 2025 AFFO per share guidance to $4.31-$4.33, signaling strong operational performance and future growth prospects.

2. Consistent Increases in Monthly Dividends: During this period, Agree Realty demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns by consistently declaring and increasing its monthly cash dividends. Notably, on December 11, 2025, the company announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.262 per common share, representing a 3.6% increase over the annualized dividend amount from the fourth quarter of 2024. This steady growth in dividends can attract and retain income-focused investors, providing a supportive floor for the stock price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADC Return-1%11%4%-7%17%5%30%
Peers Return-10%32%-8%4%11%-1%24%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADC Win Rate50%67%67%42%67%58% 
Peers Win Rate60%62%47%50%60%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADC Max Drawdown-31%-6%-12%-21%-12%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-7%-22%-18%-10%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: O, NNN, EPRT, FCPT, KIM. See ADC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven880 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven110 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven279.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2626 days1480 days

Compare to BRX, PECO, MAC, SITC, SPG


In The Past

Agree Realty's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Agree Realty (ADC)

Better Bets than Agree Realty (ADC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Agree Realty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADCONNNEPRTFCPTKIMMedian
NameAgree Re.Realty I.NNN REIT Essentia.Four Cor.Kimco Re. 
Mkt Price72.2157.7740.6530.5523.4520.4535.60
Mkt Cap8.052.87.66.12.413.87.8
Rev LTM6895,6129065312872,095797
Op Inc LTM3302,564557338160692448
FCF LTM4843,7636593631781,065571
FCF 3Y Avg4373,3186342981621,008535
CFO LTM4843,7636593631781,065571
CFO 3Y Avg4373,3186342981621,008535

Growth & Margins

ADCONNNEPRTFCPTKIMMedian
NameAgree Re.Realty I.NNN REIT Essentia.Four Cor.Kimco Re. 
Rev Chg LTM14.7%14.7%4.5%24.2%8.3%10.2%12.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg19.5%21.5%6.0%24.2%9.5%8.3%14.5%
Rev Chg Q18.7%9.1%5.3%23.7%11.0%5.0%10.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.4%2.1%1.3%5.5%2.6%1.2%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM47.9%45.7%61.5%63.6%55.7%33.0%51.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg48.4%42.6%62.0%62.5%55.3%32.7%51.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%1.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.0%0.3%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM70.3%67.1%72.7%68.4%61.9%50.8%67.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg73.1%69.5%73.6%69.3%61.3%52.8%69.4%
FCF/Rev LTM70.3%67.1%72.7%68.4%61.9%50.8%67.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg73.1%69.5%73.6%69.3%61.3%52.8%69.4%

Valuation

ADCONNNEPRTFCPTKIMMedian
NameAgree Re.Realty I.NNN REIT Essentia.Four Cor.Kimco Re. 
Mkt Cap8.052.87.66.12.413.87.8
P/S11.59.98.811.18.87.09.4
P/EBIT24.425.913.617.215.818.717.9
P/E40.957.820.424.523.224.724.6
P/CFO16.314.812.116.214.313.814.5
Total Yield6.6%6.9%10.4%7.9%9.8%4.1%7.4%
Dividend Yield4.2%5.2%5.5%3.8%5.5%0.0%4.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.4%6.9%8.3%6.0%6.8%7.6%6.9%
D/E0.40.50.60.40.50.60.5
Net D/E0.40.50.60.40.50.50.5

Returns

ADCONNNEPRTFCPTKIMMedian
NameAgree Re.Realty I.NNN REIT Essentia.Four Cor.Kimco Re. 
1M Rtn-1.8%1.8%-1.0%-0.7%-1.9%3.0%-0.8%
3M Rtn1.4%-1.9%-3.1%3.2%-6.3%-5.6%-2.5%
6M Rtn-2.0%3.2%-2.0%-4.5%-11.7%-0.2%-2.0%
12M Rtn2.7%12.1%2.8%-2.9%-12.0%-11.7%-0.1%
3Y Rtn16.8%7.3%5.6%53.3%5.7%11.4%9.3%
1M Excs Rtn-2.6%1.1%-1.7%-1.4%-2.6%2.3%-1.5%
3M Excs Rtn0.7%-2.2%-3.8%0.9%-7.8%-7.9%-3.0%
6M Excs Rtn-14.4%-9.2%-14.4%-16.9%-24.1%-12.6%-14.4%
12M Excs Rtn-10.2%-0.6%-9.9%-14.6%-25.0%-23.9%-12.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-53.2%-63.1%-65.5%-19.5%-66.0%-60.0%-61.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of owning, acquiring, developing and managing retail real estate537430339249187
Total537430339249187


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,205,975
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.8%
Average Daily Volume1,007,414
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.13
Basic Shares Quantity111,277,316
Short % of Basic Shares9.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/20250.2%-1.3%-2.0%
7/31/20252.8%3.0%1.8%
4/22/2025-2.4%-2.3%-5.0%
2/11/2025-1.7%-1.7%4.5%
10/22/20242.1%-1.6%2.9%
7/23/20241.7%4.5%9.5%
4/23/20241.4%-0.2%5.0%
2/13/2024-1.9%-0.3%-3.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12813
# Negative111510
Median Positive1.2%1.6%4.1%
Median Negative-1.7%-1.3%-3.5%
Max Positive2.9%4.5%9.5%
Max Negative-3.0%-8.8%-33.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251021202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024723202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021