Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 8.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 61%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 8.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 61%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NNN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Mixed Market Reaction to Strong Q3 2025 Earnings.**

Despite NNN REIT reporting strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025, including beating analyst expectations for EPS and revenue, and raising its 2025 guidance, the stock experienced a volatile reaction, closing down by 2.27% at $40.89 on the day of the announcement. This suggests that while the earnings were positive, broader market sentiment or other factors may have overshadowed the good news.

**2. Slight Decline in Occupancy Rate.**

NNN REIT's occupancy rate saw a minor decrease, falling to 97.5% as of September 30, 2025, from 98.0% at June 30, 2025, and 99.3% at September 30, 2024. While still at a high level, this slight decline could have contributed to investor caution.

**3. Analyst Price Target Adjustments and Ratings.**

During the period, several analysts adjusted their price targets for NNN REIT, with some lowering them. For instance, B. Riley lowered its price target to $43 from $44 on November 13, 2025, and Evercore ISI reduced its target to $44 from $46. Barclays also maintained a "Sell" rating with a $43.00 price target on October 19, 2025. The consensus analyst rating for NNN REIT generally remained "Hold."

**4. Equity Issuance in Q3 2025.**

In the third quarter of 2025, NNN REIT issued 1,670,737 common shares, raising $71.7 million in gross proceeds at an average price per share of $42.89. While this strengthens liquidity and supports investment activities, such equity issuance can lead to share dilution, potentially putting downward pressure on the stock price.

**5. Broader REIT Market and Interest Rate Environment.**

The overall real estate investment trust (REIT) sector and its sensitivity to interest rates likely played a role. Despite the Federal Reserve initiating its first official rate cut in Q3 2025, the market continued to face uncertainties regarding inflation and the future trajectory of interest rates, which are critical factors influencing REIT valuations and the cost of capital.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NNN Return-19%23%-0%-1%-0%5%4%
Peers Return-21%52%-17%9%12%7%31%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NNN Win Rate50%58%42%50%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate53%73%40%50%60%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NNN Max Drawdown-50%-6%-17%-21%-7%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-4%-33%-19%-8%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KIM, AGNC, FRT, SPG, O. See NNN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNNNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-27.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven334 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven469 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven133.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven639 days1480 days

Compare to KIM, AGNC, FRT, SPG, O


In The Past

NNN REIT's stock fell -27.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -27.1% loss requires a 37.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NNN REIT (NNN)

Better Bets than NNN REIT (NNN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NNN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.7%8.7%-5.8%
NNN_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020NNNNNN REITDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
31.5%31.7%-6.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.7%8.7%-5.8%
NNN_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020NNNNNN REITDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
31.5%31.7%-6.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NNN REIT

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NNNKIMAGNCFRTSPGOMedian
NameNNN REIT Kimco Re.AGNC Inv.Federal .Simon Pr.Realty I. 
Mkt Price40.6420.1010.4997.13183.3258.2149.42
Mkt Cap7.613.611.08.459.953.212.3
Rev LTM9062,0959561,2546,1555,6121,675
Op Inc LTM557692-4513,1202,564692
FCF LTM6591,0656043363,1213,763862
FCF 3Y Avg6341,0081962763,0663,318821
CFO LTM6591,0656045974,0183,763862
CFO 3Y Avg6341,0081965723,8703,318821

Growth & Margins

NNNKIMAGNCFRTSPGOMedian
NameNNN REIT Kimco Re.AGNC Inv.Federal .Simon Pr.Realty I. 
Rev Chg LTM4.5%10.2%-24.1%6.0%4.2%14.7%5.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.0%8.3%108.3%6.2%5.7%21.5%7.3%
Rev Chg Q5.3%5.0%122.3%6.1%8.2%9.1%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%1.2%92.7%1.5%2.0%2.1%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM61.5%33.0%-36.0%50.7%45.7%45.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg62.0%32.7%-35.1%50.4%42.6%42.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.3%--0.2%-0.3%1.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM72.7%50.8%63.2%47.6%65.3%67.1%64.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg73.6%52.8%21.0%48.2%66.1%69.5%59.4%
FCF/Rev LTM72.7%50.8%63.2%26.8%50.7%67.1%57.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg73.6%52.8%21.0%23.1%52.3%69.5%52.6%

Valuation

NNNKIMAGNCFRTSPGOMedian
NameNNN REIT Kimco Re.AGNC Inv.Federal .Simon Pr.Realty I. 
Mkt Cap7.613.611.08.459.953.212.3
P/S8.87.010.86.910.09.99.4
P/EBIT13.618.7-16.217.325.917.3
P/E20.424.712.325.127.357.724.9
P/CFO12.113.817.114.615.214.814.7
Total Yield10.4%4.1%8.1%4.0%4.4%6.9%5.6%
Dividend Yield5.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%5.2%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.3%7.6%1.9%3.2%6.4%6.9%6.7%
D/E0.60.60.00.60.40.50.5
Net D/E0.60.5-0.00.50.40.50.5

Returns

NNNKIMAGNCFRTSPGOMedian
NameNNN REIT Kimco Re.AGNC Inv.Federal .Simon Pr.Realty I. 
1M Rtn2.1%-1.7%4.2%1.1%0.4%4.2%1.6%
3M Rtn-2.7%-10.8%6.6%-2.7%1.0%1.3%-0.8%
6M Rtn1.3%-1.2%24.9%5.2%16.9%7.2%6.2%
12M Rtn-0.2%-16.9%28.1%-10.8%6.0%9.7%2.9%
3Y Rtn4.8%4.9%67.0%3.3%83.7%10.2%7.6%
1M Excs Rtn0.8%-2.9%3.0%-0.1%-0.9%2.9%0.3%
3M Excs Rtn-10.6%-17.5%-1.0%-10.1%-5.2%-6.2%-8.2%
6M Excs Rtn-14.1%-16.7%9.5%-10.3%1.5%-8.2%-9.2%
12M Excs Rtn-15.2%-30.0%13.5%-24.6%-7.3%-4.7%-11.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-67.5%-71.2%-4.4%-72.8%10.8%-62.7%-65.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment828    
Earned income from direct financing leases 1   
Interest and other income from real estate transactions 1321
Percentage rent 2   
Real estate expense reimbursement from tenants 18191817
Rental income from operating leases 752   
Rental revenues  705641652
Total828773726661670


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,207,810
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.2%
Average Daily Volume1,543,181
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.37
Basic Shares Quantity187,838,711
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021209202210-K 12/31/2021