NNN REIT (NNN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $40.635 | Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Retail REITs
NNN REIT (NNN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $40.635Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Retail REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 8.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 61% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 8.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 61% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NNN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Mixed Market Reaction to Strong Q3 2025 Earnings.**
Despite NNN REIT reporting strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025, including beating analyst expectations for EPS and revenue, and raising its 2025 guidance, the stock experienced a volatile reaction, closing down by 2.27% at $40.89 on the day of the announcement. This suggests that while the earnings were positive, broader market sentiment or other factors may have overshadowed the good news.
**2. Slight Decline in Occupancy Rate.**
NNN REIT's occupancy rate saw a minor decrease, falling to 97.5% as of September 30, 2025, from 98.0% at June 30, 2025, and 99.3% at September 30, 2024. While still at a high level, this slight decline could have contributed to investor caution.
**3. Analyst Price Target Adjustments and Ratings.**
During the period, several analysts adjusted their price targets for NNN REIT, with some lowering them. For instance, B. Riley lowered its price target to $43 from $44 on November 13, 2025, and Evercore ISI reduced its target to $44 from $46. Barclays also maintained a "Sell" rating with a $43.00 price target on October 19, 2025. The consensus analyst rating for NNN REIT generally remained "Hold."
**4. Equity Issuance in Q3 2025.**
In the third quarter of 2025, NNN REIT issued 1,670,737 common shares, raising $71.7 million in gross proceeds at an average price per share of $42.89. While this strengthens liquidity and supports investment activities, such equity issuance can lead to share dilution, potentially putting downward pressure on the stock price.
**5. Broader REIT Market and Interest Rate Environment.**
The overall real estate investment trust (REIT) sector and its sensitivity to interest rates likely played a role. Despite the Federal Reserve initiating its first official rate cut in Q3 2025, the market continued to face uncertainties regarding inflation and the future trajectory of interest rates, which are critical factors influencing REIT valuations and the cost of capital.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NNN Return | -19% | 23% | -0% | -1% | -0% | 5% | 4% |
| Peers Return | -21% | 52% | -17% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 31% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NNN Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 73% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NNN Max Drawdown | -50% | -6% | -17% | -21% | -7% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -4% | -33% | -19% | -8% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KIM, AGNC, FRT, SPG, O. See NNN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NNN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 334 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 469 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KIM, AGNC, FRT, SPG, O
In The Past
NNN REIT's stock fell -27.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -27.1% loss requires a 37.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NNN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.7% | 8.7% | -5.8% |
| 09302020 | NNN | NNN REIT | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.5% | 31.7% | -6.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.7% | 8.7% | -5.8% |
| 09302020 | NNN | NNN REIT | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.5% | 31.7% | -6.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NNN REIT
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,675 |
| Op Inc LTM | 692 |
| FCF LTM | 862 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 821 |
| CFO LTM | 862 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 821 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 45.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 42.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 64.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 59.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 57.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 52.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.3 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| P/EBIT | 17.3 |
| P/E | 24.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 828 | ||||
| Earned income from direct financing leases | 1 | ||||
| Interest and other income from real estate transactions | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Percentage rent | 2 | ||||
| Real estate expense reimbursement from tenants | 18 | 19 | 18 | 17 | |
| Rental income from operating leases | 752 | ||||
| Rental revenues | 705 | 641 | 652 | ||
| Total | 828 | 773 | 726 | 661 | 670 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |